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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The Accountant
Active Member
Shanghai June Deliveries will be Huge
Keep in mind:
May Production was higher than Deliveries (33.5k vs 32.2k). Same for April with Production at 10.8k and Deliveries 1.5k
That's 10.6k undelivered vehicles. We will see deliveries exceed production for June as Tesla will focus on deliveries in and around Shanghai at month-end to ensure very few vehicles are in transit. If Tesla can produce 75k they may be able to deliver 85k.
Upgrade, better than expected China numbers, and customers in 4680 cars. What a nice day.
The Accountant
Active Member
. . . .and if we get tame CPI numbers tomorrow, we may have another nice day !!
Hopefully @Chunky Jr. will be reporting a 5 day winning streak.
That's what I mean. With his absolute wording, Troy is stating that there is 100% chance that deliveries will be under 275k (i.e "are not going to be close to 300k"... "will be close to 250k"). They might be, but there no way his model is that precise.
Perhaps not a big deal, but as more people follow his forecasts, his feigned precision and confidence bugs me more and more. His good work would be enhanced if he was more careful with his communication and methodology.
TSLA impact: if you're smarter than the author of a misleading/inaccurate article, you can potentially pick up TSLA shares for less by buying them when they're On Sale
Background needed, however: the HEPA filter is used when NOT in recirculation mode, further showing just how clean the air can be in a Tesla so equipped . . . . That said, if the original post issue is accurate (and it likely is) then it's nothing more than a simple OTA to prevent recirculation from being on continuously for more than XX mins, thus preventing the problem in the first place. Oddly, this is pretty basic HVAC knowledge and most (all?) brands do this automatically, usually cycling back to fresh air off and on over any given drive (even if the controls are set to 100% recirculation--gotta protect people from their own ignorance).
This is in the Owner's Manual for may legacy brands' cars, which most will never read . . . .
I keep thinking how amazing and economical a smaller ~6' diameter boring machine might be for utilities. A local small town here used to occasionally debate switching power lines to underground... the incredible economy Boring could provide would tip the scale and remove so many problems associated with above ground lines.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW, customers were already in 4680 cars-- the "news" yesterday was the first customer outside of texas is in one... but they are still only making them available via individual emails to existing reservation holders-- so all the new delivery tells us is they're out of "previous res holders, who are specifically in Texas, and specifically ok taking the shorter range 4680 car over an LR"
When they're available for new order to everyone (which they still are not) will to my mind be a much bigger indicator of 4680 scaling up well.
He’s usually precise but less often accurate . A regular problem in forecasting is generating precision far outside the sphere of confidence. Frequently there are those who display ranges, which is better than false precision.
The master problem in forecasting is using com with wide confidence ranges, but showing on a fixed value. Every time that is repeated the expected values further lose confidence.
Long ago I was tasked to evaluate an acquisition candidate providing a five year forecast. Following the project the acquisition was made. Five years later I was strongly complimented for my stellar forecasting talents, since the bottom lines happened to be within 3% of my forecasts. I was astonished and thrilled ! Then I made a fatal mistake. I reviewed my model against actual results. Nearly all components were off by 50% or more for every year. By gigantic but fortuitous coincident, the bottom lines were right on.
Ever since then I have remained acutely aware of the ‘last significant digit’. As a result my own forecasts all consider ranges, never absolutes. Some, like @The Accountant deal with this with multiple cases, which is the optimal way for general audiences. For internal use I use ranges for each variable, then attempt to adjust others for dependencies. That is very hard to display. Securities analysts rarely seem to do any significant analysis, just compare with purported competitors.
Woth Tesla the complexity is rapidly rising and accurate data is becoming more difficult to acquire. Traditional data sources are of diminishing value. Frankly, the value of TMC is rising quickly, just as the volume of irrelevancies is growing.
Bluntly our mods are doing a stellar job trying to keep us focused on investment evaluation. They are to be applauded and,perhaps, pitied! Luckily some of our mods live in such remote areas that being our disciplinarians might serve as comic relief. I don’t know, but I thank them!
It used to be 20 but has since gone up to 24. Damn inflation!!!
petit_bateau
Active Member
To be honest all this is the sort of stuff that is either basic manufacturing economics or has been covered in any number of anti-dumping lawsuits over the decades, filed in both EU and USA. You might want to go trawl through back issues of all the solar PV magazines for their reporting on this issue during the last 20-years.
But as a for example coal is (or was) 60% of the generation mix in China - it was more, it is falling, this is a moving target. Electricity sector in China - Wikipedia
Anyway if you don't mind I've raised the issue, and pointed you in what (I think) is the right direction. I'm not the only one who thinks this which is why CBAMs are being brought in, starting with the EU, and they've done quite a lot of thinking on the issue. (Yesterday's MEP vote was a refusal on the watering down of the CBAM, i.e. a vote to go away and come back with a firmer one). So maybe trawl through the CBAM briefings papers on europa.eu etc, here are some places for you to start
Council agrees on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
The Council reached a general approach on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
www.consilium.europa.eu
MEPs reject key EU climate proposal after aims watered down
European parliament defeats centre-right lawmakers’ attempts to weaken climate target
www.theguardian.com
I've also pointed out a solution which is to observe the year by year LCOE numbers as they roll in and we'll see how it goes.
EDIT - Whilst I am at it, your sweeping statements in later posts regarding " wind will not be competitive vs 100% solar and batteries in almost all locations. Wind is bumping up closer to physical limits of aerodynamics and materials while solar has plenty of room for further optimization." are not entirely correct either. Not for that matter is Tony Seba. Please show me how you do inter-seasonal storage so as to use solar-only (without wind) during the dark and cold of winter in a weak-grid-scenario. Seba is drinking his own Kool-Aid, no need for everybody else to do so. There is plenty of mileage left in wind and if anything it is significantly more valuable than solar to much of humanity. But no one technology is a silver bullet, the full quad are needed : wind, solar, grid, storage.
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Right on, as usual AD. No investor, inside the bell curve, is going to beat the HODL by swing trading and options play. 50+ years of my own experience and 20 years of managing 200+ accounts tells me this. In investing, the hardest thing to do is nothing. Attempts to "gild the lily" are rarely successful.
XHabjab
TSLA Bull
This looks to me to be FUD, and since Elon is facilitating it, my guess is that he’s setting up the shorts for a killer Q2. He’s not doing the FUD himself of course, but just putting out a bit of fertilizer."Note that when recirculation is on in Teslas, the ambient CO2 concentration in the air spikes to extremely high levels. I used to get headaches on road trips but w/o recirc I do not," the commenter wrote.
"We will look into this and adjust," Musk said yesterday. "In general, I’d recommend against using recirc, as the range advantage is small."
Elon Musk Alarmed by Tesla Feature That Spikes CO2 Levels Inside Vehicle
Elon Musk tells customers not to use Tesla's recirculation mode because it spikes carbon dioxide levels in the car cabin.futurism.com
Hmm... I think I'll prep for a wee bit of a dip.
Customer 4680 Model Y taken to the supercharger. At 10% SoC, it started charging at about 200 kw and began tapering early into the charge. It took him about 50 minutes to charge to 100%.
9 to 20 % 3 minutes
9 to 39% 6 minutes
9 to 50% 12 minutes
9 to 80% 34 minutes
9 to 90% 40 minutes
9 to 97% 50 minutes
9 to 20 % 3 minutes
9 to 39% 6 minutes
9 to 50% 12 minutes
9 to 80% 34 minutes
9 to 90% 40 minutes
9 to 97% 50 minutes
Seems slower than the 2170s
My guess is that they are being software limited at this point and still being conservative.
OTA update will increase charging rate as more and more data points are gathered and sent back to the mother ship.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
They are definitely going to software limit these for a while as the main technical hurdle seemed to be heat dissipation. Not surprised they're being very careful initially.
Likely due to the smaller pack size. Larger packs can charge faster. We'd need equal pack size (kWh) to actually know.
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