Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

Back in April, it was revealed that Tesla had over 100k FSD beta testers. They've added a few since then and now add another 100k as communicated by Elon on June 5. So we may be at 220k or so. They can then add more before month end. At what point would this be considered "wide release"?
I am not baking it in yet for Q2 but I still consider it a possibility.

First, it wasn't over 100k, it was about 100k. (I think closer to 60k.) Second, the way I read it Elon didn't say they were adding 100k he said they were expanding to 100k. (So adding ~40k.)

At what point would this be considered "wide release"?
I am not baking it in yet for Q2 but I still consider it a possibility.

It becomes a "wide release" when they are no conditions on getting it other than having purchased, or subscribed to, FSD. (The current "early limited" release also has wording that it can be taken away at any time, which would result in them having to unrecognize revenue wouldn't it?)

 

[Pezpunk]

Tesla does have a history of software limiting charge rates until they have more real-world data on how a pack configuration behaves in the real world.

My 2019 SR+ had the same chemistry and format as the LR Model 3s, but Tesla still limited the peak rate to 100 kW for about 6 months after release. And then after they were confident in the integrity of the pack at that lower rate, they bumped it up to 170 kW OTA.

while i'm sure that's true, I think there are also real physics reasons to suspect 4680 charging speeds might be slower than 2170. Heat dissipation of such a thick cell being the number one concern. Wicking heat away from deep inside its core is far more difficult than with a relatively skinny 2170. Think of how long a baked potato stays hot compared to a french fry.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla does have a history of software limiting charge rates until they have more real-world data on how a pack configuration behaves in the real world.

My 2019 SR+ had the same chemistry and format as the LR Model 3s, but Tesla still limited the peak rate to 100 kW for about 6 months after release. And then after they were confident in the integrity of the pack at that lower rate, they bumped it up to 170 kW OTA.

Fair enough, but those were Panasonic cells, which Tesla was not in direct control of the manufacturing (ie: Tesla couldn't say to Panasonic "use less cathode").

I still hold that economics and materials supply will rule the decision.

 

[Pezpunk]

They are bringing in 93 and 91 safety score drivers now. Several youtubers are thinking that it is indeed 100K additional.

anecdotally, my facebook groups seem to have tons of people saying they just got in.

 

[Mengy]

while i'm sure that's true, I think there are also real physics reasons to suspect 4680 charging speeds might be slower than 2170. Heat dissipation of such a thick cell being the number one concern. Wicking heat away from deep inside its core is far more difficult than with a relatively skinny 2170. Think of how long a baked potato stays hot compared to a french fry.

Sure, but wouldn't a tabless design generate less heat comparatively?

 

[Pezpunk]

I didn't believe you so I googled it. Indeed still using the 18650s in the S+X. I guess this is to maximize the value from the cell manufacturing lines? Don't want to "waste" the cell lines? I would think that during the refresh would have been the ideal time to change the pack to 2170s while they were retooling anyway. They didn't do that so they made a very deliberate decision to stick with the older cells.

It seems counter-intuitive to me, unless they are 2170 cell constrained.

18650 and 2170 are just form factors. There's little difference between them. The real avenues for improvement in the battery between those packs were in cooling systems and chemistry, improvements the S/X adopted and improved upon.

 

[MP3Mike]

It seems counter-intuitive to me, unless they are 2170 cell constrained.

They aren't currently cell constrained. (Because of the chip, and other, supply shortages.) But they have said, even with their three new 4680 cell factories, they will be cell constrained next year.

 

[Atomsla]

I didn't believe you so I googled it. Indeed still using the 18650s in the S+X. I guess this is to maximize the value from the cell manufacturing lines? Don't want to "waste" the cell lines? I would think that during the refresh would have been the ideal time to change the pack to 2170s while they were retooling anyway. They didn't do that so they made a very deliberate decision to stick with the older cells.

It seems counter-intuitive to me, unless they are 2170 cell constrained.

To the best of my knowledge Panasonic has and has had fully operational 18650 lines running for S and X in Japan since the very beginning of those models. Changing S and X over to 2170 would require stopping and rebuilding those lines. Shipping from Japan isn't ideal, but I'm sure it beats taking 2170's away form 3 and Y.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So much FOOOMOOO...



Cheers to the Longs!

 

[elasalle]

OT
Stonks goes down .... Livin on a Prayer
Stonk goes sideways ..... Keep the Faith
Stonk goes up ..... She's a little runaway

Post stuff like this & you are "Wanted Dead or Alive" cheers!!

 

[willow_hiller]

Fair enough, but those were Panasonic cells, which Tesla was not in direct control of the manufacturing (ie: Tesla couldn't say to Panasonic "use less cathode").

I still hold that economics and materials supply will rule the decision.

True, since the 4680s already seem to be surpassing the 2170s on peak C rate (3.3 for 4680 vs 3.0 for 2170), and equivalent on average C rate (2170 is about 1.25 C from 10%-80% [average of 103 kW], and this charging session demonstrated 1.24 C from 10%-80% [about 84 kW average rate]).

I'm already impressed by the charging curve. We don't need to be banking on it improving with software.

 

[henchman24]

Vix below next magical step of 24 yesterday. Anybody explain what that “means”?

It is an expectation of volatility. The higher the number, the more volatility expected in the market and downward pressure exists in the options chain. As it dies down and falls, the fear is the market starts to subside and the options chain starts to have positive pressure. Under 20 is typically bullish.

750 seems to be a psychologically important number.

 

[Knightshade]

Back in April, it was revealed that Tesla had over 100k FSD beta testers. They've added a few since then and now add another 100k as communicated by Elon on June 5. So we may be at 220k or so. They can then add more before month end. At what point would this be considered "wide release"?
I am not baking it in yet for Q2 but I still consider it a possibility.

I'd expect wide release is "Everyone in that geo gets it if they bought FSD, and it won't get pulled for AP Jail violations"

 

[StealthP3D]

Regardless of whether it's true or not, for me playing the fud is a money-making part of swing trading. IMO, there are more uninformed / laypeople investors who are easily spooked than there are of us.

I would be interested to know how you played this FUD in a profitable manner. Do you have to wait a few days for it to work?

 

[bkp_duke]

while i'm sure that's true, I think there are also real physics reasons to suspect 4680 charging speeds might be slower than 2170. Heat dissipation of such a thick cell being the number one concern. Wicking heat away from deep inside its core is far more difficult than with a relatively skinny 2170. Think of how long a baked potato stays hot compared to a french fry.

The entire point of the tabless design was to improve both electrical flow AND heat dissipation at the ends.

Tesla 4680 Cell: Thermal Analysis Suggests Unique Cooling System Design

On Battery day, Tesla told us the biggest barrier to a larger format cell is cooling the cell, and its new tabless electrode design fixes that problem.

insideevs.com

By all accounts of cut-outs we have seen on the 4680 packs, there is cooling both in the ribbon form (between cells) and on the end with the tabs. 2170 packs only use ribbon cooling on the sides.

Additionally, the chemistry of the 4680s is vastly different than the 2170s (dry battery electrode vs. wet electrode). I need to dig further, but this might also decrease heat production from the cells (and be why they are supposed to get more power than the same mass of 2170 cells - 6X power vs. same size as 5 x 2170 cells).

 

[mongo]

As far as swing trading goes, Kathie Wood is the most promenient example. Her ARC funds have dodged a lot of growth by trading out at the wrong times, and failing to buy in again on time. It's as a simple a matter as comparing 5-yr charts for those funds vs TSLA, which has outperformed them all

Right on, as usual AD. No investor, inside the bell curve, is going to beat the HODL by swing trading and options play. 50+ years of my own experience and 20 years of managing 200+ accounts tells me this. In investing, the hardest thing to do is nothing. Attempts to "gild the lily" are rarely successful.

Ya know, for all the Cathie/ ARK bashing, her trades of TSLA (ignoring what the funds bought instead) sure seem to be more profitable than my held ones...
Seriously, my hold is/was down 50% from ATH. Why would a profit minded individual hold in a global climate with a war, C19, and a recession Elon himself predicted? Q1 call said Q2 would be flattish delivery wise. As of now, any sell above $800 was a better move (ignoring potential tax implications).

Ark TSLA actions across all funds since September 2020 (condensed to only days with trading). Buy/sell are average of high/low for that day, holdings are total share count with offset and scaling to fit on graph.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes, this common attitude is exactly why Elon wanted to take Tesla private, in order to better insure its future success by removing the largest attack vector on the growing company: the Market participants working to make the company fail.

BTW, this is also the same reason why Elon announced earlier this week that Starlink would not IPO before 2025 (or later). With the role of Starlink in Eastern Europe right now, that's prudent for the company, and a generational loss for investors.

As far as swing trading goes, Kathie Wood is the most promenient example. Her ARC funds have dodged a lot of growth by trading out at the wrong times, and failing to buy in again on time. It's as a simple a matter as comparing 5-yr charts for those funds vs TSLA, which has outperformed them all.

"Buy'nHold for the win". Paging @Hock1

One good performing stock will ALWAYS out-perform a fund containing a basket of 30-50 stocks, even if those stocks are successfully swing-traded. A fund returning 12% annually over a 10 year period would be considered outstanding!

 

[scaesare]

The entire point of the tabless design was to improve both electrical flow AND heat dissipation at the ends.

Tesla 4680 Cell: Thermal Analysis Suggests Unique Cooling System Design

On Battery day, Tesla told us the biggest barrier to a larger format cell is cooling the cell, and its new tabless electrode design fixes that problem.

insideevs.com

By all accounts of cut-outs we have seen on the 4680 packs, there is cooling both in the ribbon form (between cells) and on the end with the tabs. 2170 packs only use ribbon cooling on the sides.

Additionally, the chemistry of the 4680s is vastly different than the 2170s (dry battery electrode vs. wet electrode). I need to dig further, but this might also decrease heat production from the cells (and be why they are supposed to get more power than the same mass of 2170 cells - 6X power vs. same size as 5 x 2170 cells).

Do you have a source/pic of some sort of cooling mechanism attached to the ends of cells?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Except they delivered more than they produced in Q1, and as a result inventory was very low going into Q2... I'll be thrilled if they can produce 75K from Shanghai in June, but I'm not counting on much over-delivering.

On a more positive note, it may be worth looking into Model X production. It's been a very painful ramp, but my early May delivery was a 338xxx VIN and someone with an early June delivery got a 346xxx VIN, so Model X production *might* finally be coming online for real. Plus there are apparently still X Plaid orders coming through and getting accelerated deliveries. Not that it will offset missing like 50+% of Shanghai production, but there will at least be that tailwind in the financials.

Rob Maurer was also speculating about recognizing some FSD deferred revenue along with this rollout to 100K FSD Beta testers... hard to count on but that could possibly be a nice bonus too.

Actually S/X production can make material impact on revenue/profit. A 10k increase in S/X production equals about 2.5X worth of 3/Y due to their ASP and higher profits.

 

[hobbes]

18650 and 2170 are just form factors. There's little difference between them. The real avenues for improvement in the battery between those packs were in cooling systems and chemistry, improvements the S/X adopted and improved upon.

Was going to argue tabless should improve the charging capapility, but turns out larger cells in general have more of a problem with fast charging and tabless compensates for that for 4680:

Larger tabbed cells have historically struggled to shed heat at very fast charging speeds. Tesla’s new cell disrupts the trend, charging nearly as fast as a smaller cell, while bringing all the benefits of a larger cell to the table. Tesla was able to take the best of both worlds, completely disrupting the small but growing world of automotive battery cell production.

Everything You Need To Know About Tesla's New 4680 Battery Cell - CleanTechnica

Tesla didn't hold back at Battery Day, announcing a new tabless 4680 cell form factor, among many other things.

cleantechnica.com