Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

Thanks for interpreting gub-speak for us.

I would be quite ok with someone other than Tesla expanding the network of fast chargers to the back country. Hopefully sometime before these get installed Tesla will release their CCS -> Tesla adaptor so we can take advantage of it. That said, I am hugely concerned about reliability.

The big joke about all of this is the companies which are going to wind up with these contracts are going to have little to no incentive to actually do so with long term plans to maintain them. So we're very likely to get hundreds of new quickly broken fast charging locations spread across the country which meet the absolute minimum requirements with nobody hanging around to fix them because it's more profitable to install more then it is to fix the crappy ones they installed 2 months prior.

Good chance this will cement the idea that non-Tesla EV charging is a giant turd-bag and make owning non-Tesla EVs even less appealing.

Is there any smallprint to stop another company subsequently buying up all these charge stations and unifying them into one network, properly maintained etc, ?

(the faster Tesla USA switches to CCS the better imho)

 

[Baumisch]

These charging stations are gonna be garbage, and the people soaking up the tax dollars will be the typical leeches, but best to just not worry about it. That's what govt does. Better to waste it here than on oil subsidies.

Hell, the DoE was celebrating their first big loan guarantee today. Hooray! The very same loan program that marginally helped Tesla scale. You know what it's going towards? "Hydrogen hubs" to keep the methane fracking industry going an extra 10 years. You can't make this stuff up.

Hopefully Tesla can jump into this charger program and build out a whole bunch of quality charging stations. As always, the higher quality will just highlight how much better Tesla engineering is in comparison to the rest.

Yes, SuC Network is reliable - but in Europe it's lacking smart-placement, long-cables for non Teslas and in most places ... and roofs.

In US additionally CCS retrofit is needed (already done in Europe).

 

[Xepa777]

See my comment above.

Tesla hasn’t pitched this to customers. Battery Day was at the annual shareholder’s meeting. Are you suggesting as a shareholder you are disappointed that Tesla has reduced the capital cost of battery factories by a factor of 5?

Dry Battery Electrode is arguably the single most important innovation brought up on battery day and it appears to have exceeded their expectations in terms of cost savings. If none of the other things discussed on Battery Day happen, the 4680 is an absolutely smashing success.

Do you have a link to an article where tesla said it exceeded expectations? I must’ve missed that.

 

[cliff harris]

Customers are ABSOLUTELY keen on easier production and reduced production costs. That means more Teslas available (shorter wait times) and a potentially lower cost car once the backlog is worked through.
I could happily sell half a dozen cars within a few months to friends, who know all about my 2015 model S, if they could afford them, and if they didn't have to sit in a one year wait list for them.
Nobody I know bangs on about EV range any more, and people finally realise they are super fast. But a lot of people I know cannot vaguely imagine being able to afford a Tesla.
Even a £35k car is very expensive for people I know. A £20k Tesla would sell very, very well (roughly $25k).

The battle for performance is over, the battle for range is over. The next two battles are cost and FSD. I suspect (hope?) master plan 3 will have a more aggressive timeline to crunch down the sale price.

 

[CaliBear1]

Great news! I am planning to move to either NZ or Aus, just need to make up my mind for which country, and would be great to not have to cancel my MYP order for Europe! Observed pretty few Teslas in both countries. Let’s hope the new Aussie government will improve the situation. Renting a Tesla is pretty easy in NZ with Go-Tesla.

Previously Shanghai has been exporting a lot of 3/Y to Europe, now lots of Y for Europe will be replaced by Berlin ones and Shanghai can focus on other markets. Once Australia, NZ etc are getting saturated I hope Thailand/Indonesia will see some expansion also. I was in Jakarta last week and managed to get a taxi Model X(got super lucky, they only have 2 Tesla Taxi with Silverbird) from the airport. Driver claimed autopilot didn’t work, but not sure if he was just not allowed to use it.
View attachment 814818
I think a smaller Cybertruck would be great for Asia, Model 2/Q/C would also be great but I think best would be a Cybervan(rich Asians loves vans as they have drivers).

Model S/3/Y doesn’t really make much sense for Indonesia/Thailand etc to be honest. It will sell some, but it’s not the ideal car for the countries.

I beg to differ Heltok. I live in Thailand and small SUVs are ubiquitous. IMHO the Y will do exceptionally well. I don’t disagree when it comes to the S and the 3.

 

[Cobbler]

When talking about 4680, dry electrode:
Doesn't dry electrode also allow for better chemistries? Maxwell hinted at improved energy densities. I was expecting near/above 300Wh/kg already with the 4680 cells.
Has this slide become obsolete?

 

[Nolimits]

CPI data today. Will be a fun day ladies and gents. Hoping to pick up some shares today despite the results. Too much good news and upcoming cash flow for Tesla (q3/4). I envision - As early as Oct/November, we all will likely be kicking ourselves not buying this month. NFA.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

The problem is getting out in the world instead of being held up in our basement.

Over the years I would get excited seeing truck loads of Teslas heading north. But over the last month I have seen more temporary paper cars on the local streets here in Olympia, Washington. Newly released into the wild Teslas compared to truck loads enroute. That is a tipping point.

 

[damonbrodie]

If memory serves me, the original estimates from structural pack + dual castings was ~400 lbs (9-10%). This is far less impressive, and honestly I find it underwhelming, especially given that it's probably not the LR version (which you are comparing weight to), and to hit the same range you are going to have to add in some more 4680 cells and therefor close that weight gaps some (probably 1-1.5%).

There definitely should be some measurable improvements. a 200 lbs improvement for the new castings and the improved energy density with the new cells is very underwhelming. Certainly the process improvement around the castings and the simplification of the structural pack are both wins. I think to really know about the cell improvements promised at BD, we need to have a like for like comparison between a MY LR with 4680 vs 2170.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535061800504348673

Australia,Singapore.....

Uncle Leo time to start a MY taxi fleet .... don't wait for buybacks

Berlin ramp/projections must be looking good ...

 

[Prunesquallor]

25-year-old hotel valet returned my Model 3 when we checked out yesterday morning.

She said “This car makes me feel old”.

 

[Todd Burch]

25-year-old hotel valet returned my Model 3 when we checked out yesterday morning.

She said “This car makes me feel old”.

If the 3 was a performance, that would be quite ironic given that time should be slowing down for her as she approaches the speed of light.

 

[mongo]

When talking about 4680, dry electrode:
Doesn't dry electrode also allow for better chemistries? Maxwell hinted at improved energy densities. I was expecting near/above 300Wh/kg already with the 4680 cells.
Has this slide become obsolete?

View attachment 814924

It was found there were some negative side effects from residual solvent the wet electrode process. The binder used in dry electrodes also has positive benefits.
Elimination of the solvent does offer the opportunity for improvements; however, as Tesla stated on the Q1 earnings call, they derisked the structural pack and 4680 design and those will be improved over this year (to as good as the best alternative packs) and into the future.
Note: slide has the commercialization band extending through to 2025, so current progress (mass production ramp in 2022) is as expected or better.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Seems slower than the 2170s

Definitely. At 9 percent our Y would be pinned at 250 until 30 percent ish.

 

[Skryll]

Is there any smallprint to stop another company subsequently buying up all these charge stations and unifying them into one network, properly maintained etc, ?

(the faster Tesla USA switches to CCS the better imho)

If most cars are Teslas anyways, the frankenport cars can use an adapter instead. I dont want to have to use two hands to dork around with a CCS1 connector. Teslas plug should be the default.

 

[scaesare]

I'm skeptical. They haven't rolled out the new chemistry yet so these aren't going to be super efficient.

There are cars in the wild though. They are getting charged and we will find out soon. It's super easy to check this. Just run one down and charge it.

Actually, efficiency is tangential to the battery pack chemistry (other than potential weight difference, but that' typically only a very small component of total efficiency). Efficiency is due to motors, inverters, gear-train, aero, tires, etc...

That screenshot would imply 176Wh/mi. That's impressive if so, but as subsequent posts indicate, that may not really be a 50KWh pack. Even if it were 60 it would be darn efficient for a vehicle larger than a 3.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Was the battery full charged when he weighed it? You have to account for these things.


/s

Yeah, does a cargo ship weigh more when the cargo is in the front, or in the back?

 

[Mengy]

Woah, the entire market just crapped itself HARD in pre-market, what happened?

EDIT: Ah, CPI numbers came out, and they aren't good.

 

[brantse]

CPI number came in hotter than expected.

Energy prices, namely fuel oil and gasoline were off the chart. If only there was a company who was looking to make these things obsolete.

 

[saniflash]

Woah, the entire market just crapped itself HARD in pre-market, what happened?

inflation higher than expected