Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drax7]

Supply shock for sure if you add the COVID pandemic coupled with
the Ukrainian war, however the fantastic money supply growth
is the bigger culprit . Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.

Monetary stimulus plus expansive fiscal policy pushed
aggregate demand to very high levels while aggregate
supplies were curtailed. That pushed prices up beyond
anything experienced.

Now you need to curtail demand through higher interest
rates. Housing that is mostly financed through loans will
likely get hit first, and that has a large negative multiplier
effect.

 

[Nocturnal]

After the drop yesterday, and seeing the CPI info . . . yeah the game is rigged. I suspect WS got wind of the numbers in advance, hence the rapid afternoon sell-off.

BLS employs 2400 people. A solid number of them either knew the outcome, or had enough info to put pieces together. All it takes is someone having lunch with their cousin...

Rigged AF.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think TSLA is outperforming it's beta for put demand reasons. I'm sitting here looking at nice put premiums and should be selling out spreads a la the "other thread", but it's a bit too scary on a Friday.

Ironic obviously, but excess fear might be hindering put sales, which is in turn keeping TSLA supported by MM's.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think TSLA is outperforming it's beta for put demand reasons. I'm sitting here looking at nice put premiums and should be selling out spreads a la the "other thread", but it's a bit too scary on a Friday.

Ironic obviously, but excess fear might be hindering put sales, which is in turn keeping TSLA supported.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Supply shock for sure if you add the COVID pandemic coupled with
the Ukrainian war, however the fantastic money supply growth
is the bigger culprit . Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.

Monetary stimulus plus expansive fiscal policy pushed
aggregate demand to very high levels while aggregate
supplies were curtailed. That pushed prices up beyond
anything experienced.

Now you need to curtail demand through higher interest
rates. Housing that is mostly financed through loans will
likely get hit first, and that has a large negative multiplier
effect.

You need to copy n paste better!

 

[Doit]

Can't resist this...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535201407741186048

 

[henchman24]

Probably worth continuing this discussion in the Investor Engineering thread if anyone wants to, but I thought I would go ahead and crunch the numbers on the pack size given Spoken Review's road trip (since we couldn't reach a conclusion about the Model Y AWD pack size due to possible Supercharging losses). Long story short, with the exception of the first few points in the video where the mileage is rather low, most estimates of full pack size given the points where he stopped to film the trip meter point to a ~65 kWh usable battery pack. Here's all my math:

1. 182 miles at 65%
2. 3 miles at 336 Wh/mi down to 63% (1,008 Wh is 2% = 50,400 Wh total pack)
3. Reset trip A at 63%
4. 31 miles at 226 Wh/mi down to 141 miles (50%). (7,006 Wh is 13% = 53,892 Wh total pack)
5. 49 miles at 274 Wh/mi down to 42% (13,426 Wh is 21% = 63,933 Wh total pack)
6. 65 miles at 287 Wh/mi down to 96 miles (34%). (18,655 Wh is 29% = 64,327 Wh total pack)
7. 118 miles at 290 Wh/mi down to 10%. (34,220 Wh is 53% = 64,566 Wh total pack)
8. Supercharge up to 97% (but didn't reset trip meter)
9. 35 miles at 320 Wh/mi down to 80% (11,200 Wh is 17% = 65,882 Wh total pack)
10. 84 miles at 297 Wh/mi down to 59% (24,948 Wh is 38% = 65,652 Wh total pack)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535273382878404609

Your math confirmed. ~66 kWh usable.

 

[jbcarioca]

If the 3 was a performance, that would be quite ironic given that time should be slowing down for her as she approaches the speed of light.

especially if her name happened to be Bright,

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

TSLA putting up a good fight (or should I say ‘MM’s are putting up a good fight), but losing momentum now and I think once it drops enough below 690, MM’s will give up trying to protect that 700 put wall and down we go.

 

[jbcarioca]

Exactly. Tesla built a small, elegant, high-powered charging cable and connector. CCS is just a fat ugly step-child by comparison.

I use both regularly. Both are quite OK from my perspective. CCS is definitely larger, especially with DC, but it is, in practice, unobtrusive. I would never have said that prior to having a CCS car.

 

[jbcarioca]

Most of the CCS standards players are incentivized to make BEVs as lame as possible so gas cars remain relevant. Denise has problems plugging in her standard J1772 into her 2015 Leaf. I suspect the CCS plug will keep a lot of ladies from getting a BEV.

CCS adapters, and adapters in general, are impediments for typical ice drivers to change. If using native CCS, vs Tesla, or even the vanishing CHAdeMO they're all easy to use. We need not advocate age original Tesla connector because they is yielding to CCS, like it or not.

Having spent my entire life coping with voltage differences, endless adapters and variants... I favor standardization, even if my favorite solution does not end out being the winner. Frankly, I'm fed up with multiple adapters and transformers In my houses. I'd be thrilled to unload all my BEV adapters.

 

[elasalle]

Aggh ... when do June CPI numbers come out

 

[scaesare]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535273382878404609

Your math confirmed. ~66 kWh usable.

243Wh/mi. Not bad.

 

[Nocturnal]

Aggh ... when do June CPI numbers come out

Don't worry. We get PPI numbers on the 14th.

 

[jerry33]

243Wh/mi. Not bad.

2 Wh/mi better than my 2013 S

 

[jbcarioca]

It was found there were some negative side effects from residual solvent the wet electrode process. The binder used in dry electrodes also has positive benefits.
Elimination of the solvent does offer the opportunity for improvements; however, as Tesla stated on the Q1 earnings call, they derisked the structural pack and 4680 design and those will be improved over this year (to as good as the best alternative packs) and into the future.
Note: slide has the commercialization band extending through to 2025, so current progress (mass production ramp in 2022) is as expected or better.

Are we forgetting how much smaller, cheaper and faster a dry electrode line is than those gigantic, expensive and inefficient drying kilns?

 

[scaesare]

2 Wh/mi better than my 2013 S
View attachment 815000

That's impressive. You must be a conservative driver in that warm-weather state of yours.

 

[SOULPEDL]

FYI, our 2021 Model Y damage from side Collission could become high value salvage per Allstate. Our full replacement clause would cost close to $80k with FSD. Would be sweet!

The damage is about $35K, so is salvage value, also about $35k. They are going to dig in deeper as certain damage can be unrepairable. And this does not have the castings, which further complicates these if cracked.

I bet this is going to change insurance pricing (out there) and could further drive Allstate and others to incur losses just to keep the home ins and umbrella policy. FSD will become crucial very soon IMO - without that detailed driving data, risk will be much higher. What will they do? Stop coverage??? That’s a dead end.

 

[ninpb]

Don't worry. We get PPI numbers on the 14th.

And FOMC 15th.

 

[phantasms]

Friendly reminder that max pain next week, a weekly/monthly/quarterly expiration, is $660. It's been like that for many months and earlier this year it seemed absolutely impossible. Yet, here we are.

1. What the heck
2. Maybe next week is the bottom.