Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Thankfully all my LEAPs are at a $750 strike and will end up beautifully at $250. Otherwise my OCD would be kicking into high gear right about now.

What I don't understand is why Tesla wouldn't request authorization for many more shares than they need for this 3:1 split. That way they'd avoid needing to go through a shareholder vote each time they want to split.

I downvoted this post because the shareholders should have some control over the stock, and the meeting is every year. The amount of shares approved should ONLY be for the next year.

 

[space_s3x]

I got to take the decision to sell 100 shares of TSLA this week.

Long story short, a guy I trained with met a lawyer who quit his job to fund his business he created with his brother 5 years ago. They accepted a Dragons Den offer of 300k for 30% ownership 5 years ago when their annual revenues was 500k. The valuation was 5M in October 2021 and is now 10M since they signed a 6M contract to sell in the US and are starting their US expansion selling at Costco, Disney, Dollar General. One of the funder has to sell 1% of his 12% stake in the company to invest with his friend in a telemedecine business worth 25M before it fills for IPO next year for a potentiel 1B value. Their gross revenue is increasing 10% monthly and the current consortium holding 75% of the company I am offered to buy 1% plan to sell the company in 4-5 years for 50M valuation realizing a 5x on my initial investment.

He wants to keep at least 10% of his shares in the company so he is offering me to buy 1% of his shares because he needs liquidity in the next week to close the deal with the other company which he accepted to buy 5% 30 days ago.

Would you sell 100 TSLA shares to buy 1% of a privately held profitable company with 120% YoY growth for a potential 4-5X within 4-5 years? Is it diversification or worsificiation?

You should check with Bob.

 

[Dutchie]

I got to take the decision to sell 100 shares of TSLA this week.

Long story short, a guy I trained with met a lawyer who quit his job to fund his business he created with his brother 5 years ago. They accepted a Dragons Den offer of 300k for 30% ownership 5 years ago when their annual revenues was 500k. The valuation was 5M in October 2021 and is now 10M since they signed a 6M contract to sell in the US and are starting their US expansion selling at Costco, Disney, Dollar General. One of the funder has to sell 1% of his 12% stake in the company to invest with his friend in a telemedecine business worth 25M before it fills for IPO next year for a potentiel 1B value. Their gross revenue is increasing 10% monthly and the current consortium holding 75% of the company I am offered to buy 1% plan to sell the company in 4-5 years for 50M valuation realizing a 5x on my initial investment.

He wants to keep at least 10% of his shares in the company so he is offering me to buy 1% of his shares because he needs liquidity in the next week to close the deal with the other company which he accepted to buy 5% 30 days ago.

Would you sell 100 TSLA shares to buy 1% of a privately held profitable company with 120% YoY growth for a potential 4-5X within 4-5 years? Is it diversification or worsificiation?

Depends. If it is the only 100 shares you got…no. If you have another 10,000 TSLA left; go for it!

 

[Singuy]

On a crappier note, looks like BTC formed a double top and now broke down the neck line so we should expect further down trend. Hopefully it'll bounce off support from the last low of around 25.9k.

 

[StealthP3D]

Okay, I'll play: Split to occur on Fri, Aug 26, 2022 after the Close of the regular trading session. Dividend shares to be tradable beginning Mon, Aug 29, 2022.

If the 2022 TSLA split pattern is repeated, the naked-short squeeze starts in earnest on Monday in the Pre-market (when shady brokers can't scratch up enough shares to cover the rightful holdings of their beneficial owners). Here's a chart from the prior split during midday trading:

View attachment 815551

Aug 31, 2020 finished the day up >18% intraday, going from $439.11 at 09:25 (just before the Open), then continuing to rise even after the Close to $516.79 at 4:42 PM, as brokers who were caught short-handed fought with Retail and others looking to front-run the Squeeze:

View attachment 815553

So now the outstanding issue is, looking forward from 2022, does Tesla need/want to do another cap raise on the back of a SP bump (recall that newly-issued shares rescued shortzes in the pre-Market on Sep 01, 2020). Or, can Tesla afford to just let the SP run?

Of course I say let it run, baby! Burn da shortzes, Elon!

#Predict

This split most likely will have somewhat different timing in terms of maximum crunch time for the shorts. My intuition tells me the crunch will happen earlier in the process and won't be a dramatic. But that's just a WAG guess.

 

[StealthP3D]

I thought the board might pre-approve the stock split, which might have accelerated the timetable for it to happen, but apparently not. From the filing about the AGM:
"Our Board intends to approve the Stock Split, subject to and contingent upon stockholder approval of the Authorized Shares Amendment."

On the contrary. The language you quoted implies the Board intends to pre-approve the split contingent upon shareholder approval of the increase in outstanding shares. This implies they want to be ready to roll (split the stock) as soon as shareholder approval happens.

 

[Buckminster]

Okay, I'll play: Split to occur on Fri, Aug 26, 2022 after the Close of the regular trading session. Dividend shares to be tradable beginning Mon, Aug 29, 2022.

Err, pretty sure you can't do this when they are all on summer vacation...

 

[Skryll]

On a crappier note, looks like BTC formed a double top and now broke down the neck line so we should expect further down trend. Hopefully it'll bounce off support from the last low of around 25.9k.

And dogecoin... will it go to 0 ? DOGEQ is asking.

 

[hobbes]

2nd line being set up in Berlin that will used 4680 structural pack.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535746591205773312

It is the same robot that they use in Austin for 4680 structural pack Ys, not safe to say that they will use it for the same in Berlin right now IMHO. They could have that robot in Berlin already and just duplicating their original line. The Berlin cell factory is still under construction... I think the shift to structural will come later.

 

[AquaY]

Inflation is probably much higher than that reported.
healthcare and tuition have reach absurd levels

Have you gone to the grocery store lately ?
passed by a gas station or stopped by Home Depot?

 

[The Accountant]

Tweeted by WholeMarsBlog:

View attachment 815646

This tweet has me very excited for Q3. I am not sure what we will see for Q2, but for Q3 we will enter July at record production at all 4 sites.
Fremont breaking daily records, Berlin establishing a rising ramping tempo and Austin coming on board.
Shanghai should deliver 3 strong months for Q3. Just take a look at the logistics lot in Shanghai yesterday as filmed by Wu Wa.

Wu Wa's Recent Shanghai Video Here

 

[SN_8]

Leo's "powered by KQID" posts make so much more sense if you assume KQID is a strong strain of cannabis.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535847607561379841

 

[Stretch2727]

Leo's "powered by KQID" posts make so much more sense if you assume KQID is a strong strain of cannabis.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535847607561379841

yep.

He is proposing something like 300B shares after a few splits and a share price of $1000. $300T Valuation. Ok, there is $1T buy back in there somewhere but unlikely to effect share count much at those valuations.

Quite the character.

"Tesla bulls will be “lying flat” on beautiful beaches; whereas I, Zhuangzi dream , shall fly to the beach of our moon."

 

[1101011]

First time:
Parking wive's red Three at the shopping center, got ambushed by a gaggle of pre-teens on bicycles and on foot posing questions and showing mountains of enthusiasm for Teslas.

Encouraging...

 

[SageBrush]

Correct. A lower share price allows employees to get as many shares as possible before they run over their cap limit.

Example, please.

 

[saniflash]

Example, please.

I have $2,200 in salary eligible for share purchase.

At share price $660, I can buy 3 shares. At share price $220, I can buy 10 shares (3.3333 shares pre-split)

 

[The Accountant]

Correct. A lower share price allows employees to get as many shares as possible before they run over their cap limit.

I think an important point is that the Employee Stock Purchase Plan does not allow for Fractional Shares.
From the 2019 ESPP :

No fractional shares of Common Stock will be purchased; any payroll deductions accumulated in a Participant’s account, which are not sufficient to purchase a full share will be returned to the Participant.​

So if you had $2,000 deducted from your payroll and the share price is $700, you can only purchase 2 shares ($1,400) and $600 is returned.
After the stock split, shares are $233.33 and you can buy 8 shares for a total of $1,867 and $133 would be returned.

At $700 share price, the employee has $1,400 invested.
At $233 share price, the employee has $1,867 invested

Edit: @saniflash was a tad faster than me

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I was going to post this earlier but refrained as maybe not relevant but now the main mans commented on it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535317003778547712

Maybe Tesla’s insurance should have a waiver that if you have sex in your car and pass on a STD to your partner Tesla insurance will not be paying anything out.

Seriously maybe with the way Musk gets publicity some of the rules may get changed.

That gives me an idea for a retirement plan since TSLA isn't panning out.

 

[The Accountant]

You should check with Bob.

I get the feeling Bob is now going to be a consistent meme here on TMC for many years.
The next generation of TMC members will be referring to Bob with no one able to explain who he is.
I just watched a MASH rerun where Hawkeye invents the fictional Captain Tuttle. By the end of the show, everyone swears they know him (although having never seen him).

 

[CatB]

That gives me an idea for a retirement plan since TSLA isn't panning out.

So that’s why Tesla is lawyering up.
if Geico has a $5m problem with a HyundaI, Tesla insurance risk on Teslas must be to the moon