Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Favguy]

I was going to post this earlier but refrained as maybe not relevant but now the main mans commented on it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535317003778547712

Maybe Tesla’s insurance should have a waiver that if you have sex in your car and pass on a STD to your partner Tesla insurance will not be paying anything out.

Seriously maybe with the way Musk gets publicity some of the rules may get changed.

Utter madness, should have been thrown out of court. What's next, I develop toothache whilst driving, so my car insurance should pay for my dental work?

 

[Mengy]

Utter madness, should have been thrown out of court. What's next, I develop toothache whilst driving, so my car insurance should pay for my dental work?

I'm going to sue Tesla for $5 million because my car gave me tinnitus, ear damage, due to it's super loud, crisp, and clear sound system. Which practically forces me to play loud music while I'm driving.

It's not my fault, it's Tesla's fault...


(sarcasm, by the way....)

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Inflation is probably much higher than that reported.
healthcare and tuition have reach absurd levels

Just do a comparison of your 2020 spending to your 2021 spending. Back out fixed expenses such as mortgage payments, and back out one-off expenses like vacations or a tree falling on your shed and you will get a pretty good idea of how hard inflation is hitting you. Make sure you're sitting down when you do this.

 

[SageBrush]

I have $2,200 in salary eligible for share purchase.
At share price $660, I can buy 3 shares. At share price $220, I can buy 10 shares (3.3333 shares pre-split)

So if you had $2,000 deducted from your payroll and the share price is $700, you can only purchase 2 shares ($1,400) and $600 is returned.
After the stock split, shares are $233.33 and you can buy 8 shares for a total of $1,867 and $133 would be returned.

At $700 share price, the employee has $1,400 invested.
At $233 share price, the employee has $1,867 invested

Are these stock purchase limits per paycheck, or in some way cumulative ? Certainly for the retail investor the unused funds not spent on a partial stock unit add up to as much as one full unit over time so the maximum unrealized purchase can only be one stock unit. This is why I view the problem as the time value of up to one stock unit.

 

[mongo]

Are these stock purchase limits per paycheck, or in some way cumulative ? Certainly for the retail investor the unused funds not spent on a partial stock unit add up to as much as one full unit over time so the maximum unrealized purchase can only be one stock unit. This is why I view the problem as the time value of up to one stock unit.

Uniform per paycheck deduction, with stock purchase every 6 months. A split can boost share purchase count by up to split-1 shares per period. Also lowers minimum needed to acquire any shares. In the case of an employee maxing out their 15% of pay contribution, the 5:1 could gain them an additional 4 shares, 3:1 an additional 2 shares.
Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit

 

[CaliBear1]

My assumption is that this is totally in play for splitting prior to Aug 31st (employee ESPP advantages) and splitting again possibly just after AI #2 (currently Sept 30th but originally Aug 19th) if there is a run up and then possibly announcing another share increase if SP has risen again prior to the end of the year due to huge ramp from Austin, Berlin, Fremont and Shanghai. I'm thinking we could see 3 splits this year possibly if there was a supposed 'short burn of the century' part deux.

 

[Mengy]

My assumption is that this is totally in play for splitting prior to Aug 31st (employee ESPP advantages) and splitting again possibly just after AI #2 (currently Sept 30th but originally Aug 19th) if there is a run up and then possibly announcing another share increase if SP has risen again prior to the end of the year due to huge ramp from Austin, Berlin, Fremont and Shanghai. I'm thinking we could see 3 splits this year possibly if there was a supposed 'short burn of the century' part deux.

Three splits in 2022? This year? To me that seems.....very unlikely.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I get the feeling Bob is now going to be a consistent meme here on TMC for many years.
The next generation of TMC members will be referring to Bob with no one able to explain who he is.
I just watched a MASH rerun where Hawkeye invents the fictional Captain Tuttle. By the end of the show, everyone swears they know him (although having never seen him).

I remember that episode. If I saw it a week ago though...

 

[SageBrush]

A split can boost share purchase count by up to split-1 shares per period.

I'm not seeing that, so let me turn it into a dollars and stock purchases example. I'll start with 80k salary, so at 15% the person has $6k to buy stocks every 6 months. If the stock pre-split is 900 and post split it is 300, the person pre-split leaves $600 unspent while post split all is spent. On average, pre-split $450 is left unspent while post-split on average $150 is unspent. Overall $300 more is spent on TSLA per each $6k.

That sounds like 5% to me -- a fair amount. But what prevents the gung-ho employee from purchasing outside the employee purchase plan ? What if any marginal savings affects that $300 ?

 

[Singuy]

And dogecoin... will it go to 0 ? DOGEQ is asking.

Elon can lose his personal money all he wants but only btc is tied to teslas impairment.

 

[JusRelax]

Dillon from the Electrified youtube channel has some insider info:

1. Tesla is currently manufacturing one million 4680 cells per month (enough for about 1200 LR MY in Austin); the ramp of 4680 cells is not going as well as Tesla had hoped
2. Tesla at some point planning on retooling in Austin to build 2170 vehicles as well
3. Current 4680 packs are confirmed to be structural, and the charging curve is confirmed to be software-limited. Software limitation only applies to the charging curve, not to the actual range of the Austin 4680 MY LR.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I'm not seeing that, so let me turn it into a dollars and stock purchases example. I'll start with 80k salary, so at 15% the person has $6k to buy stocks every 6 months. If the stock pre-split is 900 and post split it is 300, the person pre-split leaves $600 unspent while post split all is spent. On average, pre-split $450 is left unspent while post-split on average $150 is unspent. Overall $300 more is spent on TSLA per each $6k.

That sounds like 5% to me -- a fair amount. But what prevents the gung-ho employee from purchasing outside the employee purchase plan ? What if any marginal savings affects that $300 ?

Employees can purchase outside of the program, however the benefit of the program is the 15% discounted price. The discount is on the lower price between the beginning and end of the six month period.

When the share price has come down in the last six month period like this year, the employee discount program will have saved the employee from the problem of timing the market. They get to purchase at the lowest price between the beginning or end of the 6 month period.

 

[Buckminster]

OT

 

[Artful Dodger]

This split most likely will have somewhat different timing in terms of maximum crunch time for the shorts. My intuition tells me the crunch will happen earlier in the process and won't be a dramatic. But that's just a WAG guess.

Since we're WAGging the dog, imma say $345 per share post-split on Aug 29, 2022.

 

[Bet TSLA]

This pretending that a split will mean a serious amount of additional employee stock purchases is ridiculous. We have perhaps two additional split shares (2/3 of an original share) being bought by employees who want to max out their purchases. Even if every single Tesla employee maxed out their potential with this program, and then did not immediately sell the shares, it would mean very little. It's not the people for whom a few hundred dollars either way makes any difference who are responsible for moving the stock price.

And a split makes no difference to the stock. It makes very little difference to any individual employee. The split, just like any split means pretty much nothing to anybody.

And just like last time, if there's a side-effect of the "stock dividend" nature of the split forcing every share to be accounted for, then it might clean up all the delinquent naked shorts for a moment in time. Unless the Wall St. folks who are responsible for these shenanigans have figured out some way to game the system despite the stock dividend. Presuming they are stupid and will be caught by the same trick in the same way is really stretching things, I think.

And remember too how the stock crashed (>30% in a week) right after the last split, as (presumably) all the naked shorts reestablished their short positions? Me, I'm just holding and expecting a roller coaster.

 

[aGreenGuy]

The competition is coming! Today I saw a commercial on a subway station in Oslo/Norway for the Dongfeng owned EV brand Voyah. It’s said that they will be starting accepting orders of the model «Free»(!) this summer. The exterior kinda looks like a Skoda. The design of their other model «Dreamer», is, well, uh, appearently years ahead of BMW, judging by that grille


Dongfeng's High-end Electric MPV VOYAH Dreamer Starts Pre-sale in China - Chinapev.com

 

[Drax7]

I got to take the decision to sell 100 shares of TSLA this week.

Long story short, a guy I trained with met a lawyer who quit his job to fund his business he created with his brother 5 years ago. They accepted a Dragons Den offer of 300k for 30% ownership 5 years ago when their annual revenues was 500k. The valuation was 5M in October 2021 and is now 10M since they signed a 6M contract to sell in the US and are starting their US expansion selling at Costco, Disney, Dollar General. One of the funder has to sell 1% of his 12% stake in the company to invest with his friend in a telemedecine business worth 25M before it fills for IPO next year for a potentiel 1B value. Their gross revenue is increasing 10% monthly and the current consortium holding 75% of the company I am offered to buy 1% plan to sell the company in 4-5 years for 50M valuation realizing a 5x on my initial investment.

He wants to keep at least 10% of his shares in the company so he is offering me to buy 1% of his shares because he needs liquidity in the next week to close the deal with the other company which he accepted to buy 5% 30 days ago.

Would you sell 100 TSLA shares to buy 1% of a privately held profitable company with 120% YoY growth for a potential 4-5X within 4-5 years? Is it diversification or worsificiation?

Check list

1. do I understand the company, product and financials
2. do they have a sustainable competitive advantage
3. do i trust the management
4. is the valuation ok

 

[SageBrush]

The discount is on the lower price between the beginning and end of the six month period.

Excellent information. Then the theoretical Tesla employee earning $80k a year and putting 15% of his/her salary towards stock purchases on average gains ~ $8 a month from the stock split

 

[JRP3]

Dillon from the Electrified youtube channel has some insider info:

What he's saying about only the large packs being built doesn't make sense. If only the larger 828 cell 80kWh packs are being built and are not software limited they should be getting 330 miles of range or so. Or is he saying that Troy's chart is wrong and the larger pack is not 80 kWh?

 

[Fred42]

Dillon from the Electrified youtube channel has some insider info:

1. Tesla is currently manufacturing one million 4680 cells per month (enough for about 1200 LR MY in Austin); the ramp of 4680 cells is not going as well as Tesla had hoped
2. Tesla at some point planning on retooling in Austin to build 2170 vehicles as well
3. Current 4680 packs are confirmed to be structural, and the charging curve is confirmed to be software-limited. Software limitation only applies to the charging curve, not to the actual range of the Austin 4680 MY LR.

I'm wondering how this fits with the facts that Tesla built a 4680 factory in Austin (in addition to the Fremont pilot plant) and is building another in Berlin. Seems like a lot of construction and expense, and potential for future expense to retrofit or replace, if they haven't figured out how to make 4680's at scale.