Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

OT

So much fun to watch Elon geeking out. This isn't even one of the better Everyday Astronaut videos, but it's still great. It's rare to get a serious engineering take on what happens when the sheet hits the fan.

 

[SmokyPeat]

So much fun to watch Elon geeking out. This isn't even one of the better Everyday Astronaut videos, but it's still great. It's rare to get a serious engineering take on what happens when the sheet hits the fan.

Most definitely. Elon is at his best when discussing the things that interest him most. Really looking forward to the upcoming Raptor discussion/video.

 

[Ratanpara]

This pretending that a split will mean a serious amount of additional employee stock purchases is ridiculous. We have perhaps two additional split shares (2/3 of an original share) being bought by employees who want to max out their purchases. Even if every single Tesla employee maxed out their potential with this program, and then did not immediately sell the shares, it would mean very little. It's not the people for whom a few hundred dollars either way makes any difference who are responsible for moving the stock price.

And a split makes no difference to the stock. It makes very little difference to any individual employee. The split, just like any split means pretty much nothing to anybody.

And just like last time, if there's a side-effect of the "stock dividend" nature of the split forcing every share to be accounted for, then it might clean up all the delinquent naked shorts for a moment in time. Unless the Wall St. folks who are responsible for these shenanigans have figured out some way to game the system despite the stock dividend. Presuming they are stupid and will be caught by the same trick in the same way is really stretching things, I think.

And remember too how the stock crashed (>30% in a week) right after the last split, as (presumably) all the naked shorts reestablished their short positions? Me, I'm just holding and expecting a roller coaster.

Split news is a side saw, fundamental news trend is third and fourth quarters will be monstrous.

 

[wipster]

I'm going to sue Tesla for $5 million because my car gave me tinnitus, ear damage, due to it's super loud, crisp, and clear sound system. Which practically forces me to play loud music while I'm driving.

It's not my fault, it's Tesla's fault...


(sarcasm, by the way....)

So I should sue Sennheiser, Klipsch, and McIntosh?

 

[nativewolf]

Dillon from the Electrified youtube channel has some insider info:

1. Tesla is currently manufacturing one million 4680 cells per month (enough for about 1200 LR MY in Austin); the ramp of 4680 cells is not going as well as Tesla had hoped
2. Tesla at some point planning on retooling in Austin to build 2170 vehicles as well
3. Current 4680 packs are confirmed to be structural, and the charging curve is confirmed to be software-limited. Software limitation only applies to the charging curve, not to the actual range of the Austin 4680 MY LR.

Interesting if all true. I still would not be surprised to see additional range unlocked.

This would clearly indicate that the 4680 is going ...slow . A negative view would be that production ramp is quite threatened. Battery capacity gating is the one single constraint that Tesla can impact. Still disappointed that EM went off on so many tangents when this critical situation was clearly not resolved. Heck, still not ramped, good news bad news is that Kato is less than 10% of planned output.

Monthly production figures need to turn into daily production figures.

 

[Discoducky]

Interesting if all true. I still would not be surprised to see additional range unlocked.

This would clearly indicate that the 4680 is going ...slow . A negative view would be that production ramp is quite threatened. Battery capacity gating is the one single constraint that Tesla can impact. Still disappointed that EM went off on so many tangents when this critical situation was clearly not resolved. Heck, still not ramped, good news bad news is that Kato is less than 10% of planned output.

Monthly production figures need to turn into daily production figures.

I like Dillon and I think that it does not matter if 4680s are ramping slower than expected as they are now in customer hands (genie is out of the bottle and it won't be long before scale issues are solved).

Tesla makes the impossible a little late and they are working as fast as they can.

 

[UncaNed]

I wonder what even is the point of splitting the stock if the multiple is so small? I guess I'll never understand the intentions of stock splits to begin with.

Publicity value of the notifications themselves as more frequent reminders to naked shorts that an immanent split/dividend is always hanging over their heads?

 

[Sofie]

I get the feeling Bob is now going to be a consistent meme here on TMC for many years.
The next generation of TMC members will be referring to Bob with no one able to explain who he is.
I just watched a MASH rerun where Hawkeye invents the fictional Captain Tuttle. By the end of the show, everyone swears they know him (although having never seen him).

I’m sorry all (and future TMC people)! I should never have asked who BOB was in the first place!

 

[Electroman]

hey may even be telling themselves that the split will be a catalyst for the stock price to fall.

..and they will be right. When the split happens, stock will instantly fall 66%. The reason they are even shorting in the first place, to win handsomely the day after the split. Don't underestimate the genius of TSLAQ

 

[AudubonB]

“Bob” has just been given a good dunking - one that involved cement galoshes - to ensure he never bobs up again.
Capiscono, tutti? Bene.

Carry on.
Audie “GuidoTheBosun” B

 

[UncaNed]

I wonder if Tesla intended 4680s to ship right before announcing the split? Is there a potential benefit?

So post-split packs will use 3 times as many 1560 cells? 3-D Elon chess strikes again; he planned ahead long ago so the numbers work out! /s

 

[2daMoon]

Bob, we hardly knew ya.
You won't be soon forgotten.

 

[ZeApelido]

Trying to recruit Elon to TMC. Low odds but hey, Stranger Things have happened like Gordon Johnson DMing me compliments!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536079980194430976

 

[MABMAB]

I can't stand to read every post here these days, certainly used to. The dribble and nonsense, too many opinions, too many experts, too much to go back and try to understand. Should I really go back and waste my time to understand Bob?

As an investor, discussing the investments, I find that little has been percolating on the master plan p. 3. Today something happened that just blew my mind and renewed my vim and vigor. Forgive me if it has been beaten to death, but like I said I have not been reading the dribble.

Road trip on FSD today. Drove by local sales/service center, had a few more empty spots than normal, but plenty of vehicles back on the grass. The open spots were likely an illusion given the cars on the grass. Our hometown, likely just this week, finally had a supercharger open! I found it quite by mistake, on a short errand, you know the read circle with a number showed up. WTF? I drove to charge a few minutes just because. Car next to me was from many states away. Why is this SC a big deal? Perhaps 7-8 years ago we built a garage with solar, ran a NEMA 14/50 or whatever 40 amp circuit it was called, to offer charging to others. We also rent out some of our house on Airbnb, advertise the kind of free charging for electric cars. The listing shows up on plugshare, and I think maybe one other application. In all the time we have had the listing up we have only had ONE actual person come to charge, and one other that inquired but charged elsewhere. Why mention these things? The Tesla eco system is seamless and one never needs any of these also rans. As a consumer, I've only turned to plugshare when in areas where at the time the SC penetration had not been that great. Months ago Musk tweeted that massive SC expansion was ongoing. This will destroy all the other infrastructure investments. What else on the SC stuff? For a long time, it seemed like our travelling area had too many SC stalls, rarely filled, as if TSLA had built them in preparation for vehicles not yet produced. So, the current expansion seems again, like it is part of the master plan to have stations ready before the cars need them. Seamless for owners. This expansion was additionally apparent at the one SC we did use today, wherein it appeared to be undergoing an expansion, perhaps a tripling of capacity!

Couple this in with the tease for MP p3 that came recently: Plan to shift off fossil fuels! BOOM, mind blown. This company, that so many failed to believe in for so long, has been planning total changeover of the energy supply. Why is this not talked about here more? The scale and enormity of this is unbeleiveable!!! Why buy back shares when they need to deploy capital?

MP3 is the schnitzel that keeps me invested further.

Shout out to the Model S driver that traded in her husband for the car. She was such an enthusiastic owner!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The competition is coming! Today I saw a commercial on a subway station in Oslo/Norway for the Dongfeng owned EV brand Voyah. It’s said that they will be starting accepting orders of the model «Free»(!) this summer. The exterior kinda looks like a Skoda. The design of their other model «Dreamer», is, well, uh, appearently years ahead of BMW, judging by that grille


Dongfeng's High-end Electric MPV VOYAH Dreamer Starts Pre-sale in China - Chinapev.com

Minivan is a niche that basically everyone has left unfilled, except the still not existing VW ID van. Whoever gets there first will have a small but profitable niche all to themselves.

 

[damonbrodie]

genie is out of the bottle and it won't be long before scale issues are solved).

I hope you are right, but there is little evidence of this.

• Panasonic publicly stated that their 4680 production is proving challenging and they are still a year away from the production dates as yet.
• If Austin is going to re-tool for 2170 cell production so quickly after opening the new factory, it suggests that they are acknowledging that this will be a longer term problem to solve

I would say they were optimistic when they put the 4680 lines in Austin that the production ramp would be sorting itself out. I think instead it is more likely that the 4680s scale is > 1 year away and we should take that into account in our models.

Not all is lost of course - installing the 2170 battery lines should be relatively straightforward and then allow Austin to start ramping up. I'd guess that is 3+ months out though.

A large disappointment, but not the end of the world.

 

[Singuy]

Trying to recruit Elon to TMC. Low odds but hey, Stranger Things have happened like Gordon Johnson DMing me compliments!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536079980194430976

FC now has direct access to Elon on Twitter vs getting angry at mods here. I would say that's a win for FC migrating onto twitter.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I hope you are right, but there is little evidence of this.

• Panasonic publicly stated that their 4680 production is proving challenging and they are still a year away from the production dates as yet.
• If Austin is going to re-tool for 2170 cell production so quickly after opening the new factory, it suggests that they are acknowledging that this will be a longer term problem to solve

I would say they were optimistic when they put the 4680 lines in Austin that the production ramp would be sorting itself out. I think instead it is more likely that the 4680s scale is > 1 year away and we should take that into account in our models.

Not all is lost of course - installing the 2170 battery lines should be relatively straightforward and then allow Austin to start ramping up. I'd guess that is 3+ months out though.

A large disappointment, but not the end of the world.

They are tooling, not re-tooling for 2170 vehicle production in Austin. I believe this was the plan all along. Not disappointing in the least. Encouraging in fact, because it should mean a much faster ramp with the much more abundant 2170 cells.

Tesla plans to produce Model Ys with both 4680 and 2170 cells at Gigafactory Texas this year

Tesla plans to use its 4680 and 2170 cells in the Gigafactory Texas Model Y this year, with its structural battery pack appearing in the 4680-equipped cars.

www-teslarati-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[2daMoon]

I hope you are right, but there is little evidence of this.

• Panasonic publicly stated that their 4680 production is proving challenging and they are still a year away from the production dates as yet.
• If Austin is going to re-tool for 2170 cell production so quickly after opening the new factory, it suggests that they are acknowledging that this will be a longer term problem to solve

I would say they were optimistic when they put the 4680 lines in Austin that the production ramp would be sorting itself out. I think instead it is more likely that the 4680s scale is > 1 year away and we should take that into account in our models.

Not all is lost of course - installing the 2170 battery lines should be relatively straightforward and then allow Austin to start ramping up. I'd guess that is 3+ months out though.

A large disappointment, but not the end of the world.

Oh yeah! We should expect this brand spanking new, never-before-done battery production facility to ramp at least as smooth and quickly as did Model 3.

Oh, wait.

Nevermind.

/s

 

[Singuy]

Someone can check my math

Model Y sr rwd is 3920lb @244mi
Model Y awd 4680 is 4220 @ 279mi

Model 3 rwd lr -->awd from the same time period had a 250lb weight difference.

Despite what people are saying, it seems that the 4680s is infact giving you way more miles for less than 100lb of weight if you account for the awd system.