Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Interesting if all true. I still would not be surprised to see additional range unlocked.

This would clearly indicate that the 4680 is going ...slow . A negative view would be that production ramp is quite threatened. Battery capacity gating is the one single constraint that Tesla can impact. Still disappointed that EM went off on so many tangents when this critical situation was clearly not resolved. Heck, still not ramped, good news bad news is that Kato is less than 10% of planned output.

Monthly production figures need to turn into daily production figures.

People, people, people. Did you not listen to the earnings call?

4680s are not a bottleneck at this point. Due to the other limits, they are taking their time with the ramp. They expect volume production levels by Q4 or possibly late Q3 (3+ months from now). Even if that slips, it only becomes a problem if it's not volume by 2023.
Tesla Q1 Earnings Call 2022 Transcript

Martin Viecha: (31:49)
All right. And maybe the last question from investors is what is the current run rate of 4680 sale production at Fremont and at Giga, Texas? What do you expect run rates of 4680 to be in Fremont and Giga, Texas or Berlin at the end of the year?


Elon Musk: (32:07)
Well, Berlin is using the 2170 nonstructural pack, so they’re not concerned about 4680. They will transition to 4680 hopefully later this year, but current Berlin production [inaudible 00:32:23] require that. We also have, just as a risk mitigation, 2170 nonstructural pack capability here at Giga, Texas as well, but if things go according to plan, we will be in volume production with 4680 sometime perhaps towards the end of the third quarter and certainly in the fourth quarter. That’s accurate, Drew?


Drew: (32:51)
Yeah, and the other thing I would add is with the China COVID shutdown and the semiconductor bottlenecks we had through Q4 and a little bit in Q1, we have sizable cell inventory at the moment and excess cells to support the 2022 volume targets you described. So that gives us the ability to be pretty deliberate in the 4680 ramp where we can maximize learning step by step, take engineering downtime to upgrade key pieces of equipment and modify the structural pack designs to improve reliability all while achieving what you just said.


Elon Musk: (33:21)
Yeah, 4680 output is not a risk to achieving one and a half million vehicles produced this year, but it would become a risk next year if we do not solve volume production by early 2023, but we’re highly confident of doing so.

 

[bkp_duke]

I hope you are right, but there is little evidence of this.

• Panasonic publicly stated that their 4680 production is proving challenging and they are still a year away from the production dates as yet.
• If Austin is going to re-tool for 2170 cell production so quickly after opening the new factory, it suggests that they are acknowledging that this will be a longer term problem to solve

I would say they were optimistic when they put the 4680 lines in Austin that the production ramp would be sorting itself out. I think instead it is more likely that the 4680s scale is > 1 year away and we should take that into account in our models.

Not all is lost of course - installing the 2170 battery lines should be relatively straightforward and then allow Austin to start ramping up. I'd guess that is 3+ months out though.

A large disappointment, but not the end of the world.

There is no 2170 production from Austin, period. Will not be either. The 2170 process uses WET electrodes, this makes the lines something stupid large, like 5X the size of a 4680 line. In Austin, the battery production is up on the 3rd floor.

Tesla is NOT going to do 2170 cells in-house in Austin.

 

[phoggy123]

There is no 2170 production from Austin, period. Will not be either. The 2170 process uses WET electrodes, this makes the lines something stupid large, like 5X the size of a 4680 line. In Austin, the battery production is up on the 3rd floor.

Tesla is NOT going to do 2170 cells in-house in Austin.

Why couldn't they use DBE for 2170? We dont know what the limiting factor is for the 4680, could be form factor, DBE, multiple tabs than one...we have no idea. It's also possible they have more capacity in Reno than they know what to do with at the moment. The more SR vehicles with LFP they sell the more 2170's they have to go around.

 

[bkp_duke]

Why couldn't they use DBE for 2170? We dont know what the limiting factor is for the 4680, could be form factor, DBE, multiple tabs than one...we have no idea. It's also possible they have more capacity in Reno than they know what to do with at the moment. The more SR vehicles with LFP they sell the more 2170's they have to go around.

Because the "rolling" of the DBE is the hardest part of the process (per Elon). It literally in the Kato Rd. pilot facility was breaking the rollers b/c the DBE was so hard. It was the single largest delayer of time on the ramp at Kato. Different sized rollers for different sized cells, which would require a significant amount of testing to validate. I.e. basically you need to re-design a significant portion of the line. So if you are going to do DBE, Tesla decided they would just do DBE on the 4680s only.

Now, it's entirely possible that they SHIP IN 2170 packs from Reno (like they do from China for Berlin). But they will not be producing 2170 packs ON SITE, which is what someone here was claiming.

2170s also go in stationary storage (at least until they transition to LFP, which they have not started). So "extra" 2170s are allocated when possible to powerwalls, powerpacks, and megapacks.

 

[Skryll]

[...]

Couple this in with the tease for MP p3 that came recently: Plan to shift off fossil fuels! BOOM, mind blown. This company, that so many failed to believe in for so long, has been planning total changeover of the energy supply. Why is this not talked about here more? The scale and enormity of this is unbeleiveable!!! Why buy back shares when they need to deploy capital?

exactly. Why desinvest now unless we are waiting to deploy the capital later and want to beat inflation in the meantime.

I just paid $25k for replacing our gas furnace and 9seer AC with a daikin one 16seer 5ton heatpump/ac unit. Tesla should find a more cost effective way to replace fossil fuel heating but I guess the plan is redirecting cash flows to new energy so either way I am on mission with my expense and will no longer pay $300/winter month for natural gas to PG&E. Won't fully pay for itself unless we imagine the indirect cost aspects and network effect of this investment.

MP3 is the schnitzel that keeps me invested further.

Shout out to the Model S driver that traded in her husband for the car. She was such an enthusiastic owner!

Lol

 

[Singuy]

Why couldn't they use DBE for 2170? We dont know what the limiting factor is for the 4680, could be form factor, DBE, multiple tabs than one...we have no idea. It's also possible they have more capacity in Reno than they know what to do with at the moment. The more SR vehicles with LFP they sell the more 2170's they have to go around.

Dbe is to prevent you from building a gigantic wet process facility...but since it's already built, there's zero reason not to use it especially when DBE is difficult to scale for now

 

[damonbrodie]

Oh yeah! We should expect this brand spanking new, never-before-done battery production facility to ramp at least as smooth and quickly as did Model 3.

Oh, wait.

Nevermind.

/s

Listen - all I'm saying is that it isn't ramping as quickly as some of us might have been expecting. 1M cells per months is great, but it needs to be an order of magnitude larger or more before its meaningful. I'm not saying their progress isn't great, but from an investor perspective there is clearly risk on the way to production scaling and that scale is not necessarily a sure thing. This forum should be more than just a fan club. I'd hope we can have intelligent discussions on that makes the stock go both up and down.

I still stand by my comment - it looks like the 4680 is 1y away from full production. Please provide evidence to the contrary if you disagree.

 

[Discoducky]

I still stand by my comment - it looks like the 4680 is 1y away from full production. Please provide evidence to the contrary if you disagree.

What is your expectation of "full production"?

 

[MP3Mike]

I still stand by my comment - it looks like the 4680 is 1y away from full production. Please provide evidence to the contrary if you disagree.

How about you provide evidence that it is a year away?

We know two things:

1. That they currently have more cells than they can use. (Chip and other part supplies are the current limiting factor on production.)
2. They are happy with the ramp progress on the 4680 cell production.

 

[wipster]

My apologies if this has already been posted, but good news is good news:

US: Tesla Dominates BEV Sales In January-April 2022

The BEV car segment continues to expand in the US and it's not expected to change in the near future, despite the broader automotive industry slowing down.

insideevs.com

 

[StealthP3D]

And remember too how the stock crashed (>30% in a week) right after the last split, as (presumably) all the naked shorts reestablished their short positions? Me, I'm just holding and expecting a roller coaster.

The fastest appreciating stocks always make you feel like you are on a roller coaster month to month. I wouldn't expect it to be any other way. It's only when you look back 5, 10 or 15 years that it's apparent you have been climbing straight up a very steep mountain.

 

[damonbrodie]

What is your expectation of "full production"?

Good question - how many MY SR do we expect Tesla to ship per month? 5000, 8000, 10000, more? Somewhere in that ball park. Right now they are at 1200-1500 per month.

Edit: Ideally they would get 4680s cranking out enough to switch the MYP and MY LR over to 4680s then they would enough cells for 50K cars per month at Austin.

 

[damonbrodie]

How about you provide evidence that it is a year away?

We know two things:

1. That they currently have more cells than they can use. (Chip and other part supplies are the current limiting factor on production.)
2. They are happy with the ramp progress on the 4680 cell production.

According to this:

They are cell constrained at 1200cells per month (EDIT that should be cells for 1200 MR SR vehicles per month. - roughly 1M cells per month.) for the MR SR. Same video suggests they are NOT happy with the ramp on the 4680s.

Panasonic is stating production around March 2024 for 4680s:

Panasonic's 4680 battery cell production to begin before March 2024

Panasonic announced on Monday it will begin mass production of Tesla’s 4680 battery cell before the end of March 2024. The company said the new cells will be produced at its Wakayama factory in western […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[ifish]

Trying to recruit Elon to TMC. Low odds but hey, Stranger Things have happened like Gordon Johnson DMing me compliments!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536079980194430976

He is back ,he goes by

 

[ifish]

Trying to recruit Elon to TMC. Low odds but hey, Stranger Things have happened like Gordon Johnson DMing me compliments!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536079980194430976

He is back, he goes by the name Gigapress

 

[nativewolf]

According to this:

They are cell constrained at 1200cells per month (EDIT that should be cells for 1200 MR SR vehicles per month. - roughly 1M cells per month.) for the MR SR. Same video suggests they are NOT happy with the ramp on the 4680s.

Panasonic is stating production around March 2024 for 4680s:

Panasonic's 4680 battery cell production to begin before March 2024

Panasonic announced on Monday it will begin mass production of Tesla’s 4680 battery cell before the end of March 2024. The company said the new cells will be produced at its Wakayama factory in western […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Because Pano is realistic. The entire falling out a couple of years ago was, I suspect, business related and based on very different cultures. Tesla wanted to go 4680 fast and Pano probably said not possible. Might also have been costs..or a combination. It's clear that they thought they'd have enough 4680 to have Austin running on just 4680 and now that isn't going to happen. So they will retro fit 2170. It is so very very very clear to anyone looking that it is not going well. It's the most important thing in the entire EV industry (battery production) and that's what (IMO) Tesla should have been laser focused on. It's the single biggest gating factor to the EV transition and solar energy as well.

It also means that OEMs move a couple of years closer to Tesla in terms of functional battery capacity. Last year I kept looking for battery plant announcements that never came..maybe this is why.

 

[nativewolf]

How about you provide evidence that it is a year away?

We know two things:

1. That they currently have more cells than they can use. (Chip and other part supplies are the current limiting factor on production.)
2. They are happy with the ramp progress on the 4680 cell production.

What are you smoking? They built a factor to explicitly use a cell size that they can't make in volume. I mean it is one thing to be a fanboy but another to have your head in the ground. They are not happy. They are not seeing success coming so they will retrofit 2170 into Austin. That's a huge fail, and that sucks for the EV transition. They wont produce CT with 2170 nor the Semi. This is an issue.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Inflation is likely a bigger problem than is suggested, as the official figure excludes food and energy costs, both of which apparently increased in the 10%-20% range. Until this gets solved, the macros will be bad. And I don't see how it can be solved within 6 months or so.

Thus the market could drop significantly in the next few months, and take TSLA with it, especially when coupled with weaker Q2 numbers than Q1. The Q2 underperformance would of course only be a question of production, not demand, so not an intrinsic problem, but a large part of short term negative stock movements is of course perception, especially in a bear market.

But the reasons for an underperforming Q2 should vanish by Q3 (Shanghai at full swing, Berlin ramping up to perhaps 2K a week, Austin steadily ramping), and the macros would likely reach the bottom by then. And there is also of course the fantastic FSD progress which should start gaining significant positive visibility. And Optimus should also be a good catalyst.

It thus seems that we might have a wonderful buying opportunity in the next few months -low 600s, maybe even lower. This will likely be the last such chance, as after Q3/Q4 TSLA should shoot up - my prediction is 2500 by end of 2023.

Anyway, all this means is that it might be a good idea to have some cash ready, and wait maybe 3,4 months to get a bunch TSLA shares cheaply. I have some funds lined up for this purpose. It's win win - if the stock goes up, I am happy, if it goes down I get more shares (which WILL rise quickly) and I am even happier

 

[Singuy]

What are you smoking? They built a factor to explicitly use a cell size that they can't make in volume. I mean it is one thing to be a fanboy but another to have your head in the ground. They are not happy. They are not seeing success coming so they will retrofit 2170 into Austin. That's a huge fail, and that sucks for the EV transition. They wont produce CT with 2170 nor the Semi. This is an issue.

An issue that doesn't exist besides some rehash rumors from "sources". None of these concerns were expressed during the conference call. "Cybertruck is on track for production next year" said by Elon. "Gigatexas is spooling up" said by Elon via email today. 2170 line going into Gigatexas from that same earnings call because they have too many batteries and they want to make LR AWDs as it's very popular.

But hey if you think Texas is only capable of making 40 cars a day, and constantly have 7 days worth of production sitting in their logistic lot from every fly over then sure....

 

[Singuy]

We are again in new impairment territory from BTC btw. Tomorrow will be a rough day for the entire market it seems.