Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

In an overall inflation note... Kroger's inventories this week will be interesting to watch. We've see retailers like Target, Walmart, TJX etc have massively inflating inventories. Kroger has as well, if that continues and Kroger has to implement similar steps as Target... that could be a turning point in inflation.

Problem is that we need to see similar action across a range of commodities/industries including the automotive side, price increases and insane pricing power in vehicles is one component feeding into inflation.

And inflation won’t be declared under control and monetary policy reversed until demand is balanced with supply and prices return to sanity — Model Y LR has gone from $50k to $63k USD in just over a year. Inventories need to build, higher interest rates and borrowing costs need to subdue demand and balance it with supply or swing into oversupply.

 

[15Peter20]

I'm buying @$625. Anybody else?

Waiting for $550.

 

[henchman24]

Food shelf life is limited, really doubt that will be an issue.

It has been an issue in their financials already. Not as bad as Target or Walmart, but bad for a grocery store chain... and the shelf life issue makes it even more concerning if it is out of whack.

Problem is that we need to see similar action across a range of commodities/industries including the automotive side, price increases and insane pricing power in vehicles is one component feeding into inflation.

And inflation won’t be declared under control and monetary policy reversed until demand is balanced with supply and prices return to sanity — Model Y LR has gone from $50k to $63k USD in just over a year. Inventories need to build, higher interest rates and borrowing costs need to subdue demand and balance it with supply or swing into oversupply.

Inflation won't be determined to be under control by the market and general public until we are way past the point of it actually being under control (which it might already be according to some measures).

Tesla has outpaced inflation on their products because they can. You need no other evidence than just looking at how the margin has dramatically increased.

 

[bkp_duke]

Considering the Nasdaq is down ~4% and below lows and trying for ~6%... Tesla at ~650 and above lows is a victory right now. I'm not sure it holds as the market really seems to want the bottom to fall out, but right now I'll take the small victory. Powell's Fed speech has seemingly been the most important things for a few meetings now... it seems even more elevated this go round.

2 and 10y treasury yield curves inverted late last night, my understanding that is the catalyst for all this, because that inversion historically has been the best predictor of a recession.

 

[henchman24]

2 and 10y treasury yield curves inverted late last night, my understanding that is the catalyst for all this, because that inversion historically has been the best predictor of a recession.

We had an inversion in March and April too. Had it in 2019. It tends to predict a recession (something like 20 out of 29 times IIRC), but it is imprecise on timing where it can be as little as months or as much as 3-4 years.

What the inversion tells me more than anything is the market has priced in recession and has started the debate of how bad of recession it will be.

 

[gene]

I have 80 more set at $575!

I have an order for 100 shares at $602. I'd hate to miss out for only $27.

 

[betstarship]

S&P 500 is now at about the same level it was on 12/31/2020; only a year and a half ago after a 10-year bull-run (5x'd the index during that time period) that ended at the beginning of the pandemic.

If you invested in the beginning of the pandemic (pre-drop) in the S&P, you'd still be up ~32% even after this dramatic drop down in the stock market.

 

[Artful Dodger]

At least $F and $GM are down a similar percentage....take that Mary and Farley!

Amazon $AMZN was down by a larger percentage than Tesla as of 11:00 Eastern:



This is a Market-wide myoclonus, even Exxon $XOM is down -5.87% today.

'This too shall pass'. Relax, and let it happen (you'll live longer!)

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[JustMe]

In for 1 share at $649

I already made enough profit to buy a sandwich!

 

[ZachF]

ARK is down 9%…

 

[TheTalkingMule]

S&P 500 is now at about the same level it was on 12/31/2020; only a year and a half ago after a 10-year bull-run (5x'd the index during that time period) that ended at the beginning of the pandemic.

If you invested in the beginning of the pandemic (pre-drop) in the S&P, you'd still be up ~32% even after this dramatic drop down in the stock market.

View attachment 816097

This is what Peak Scarcity looks like. Massive massive massive corporate profits as we squeeze the last juice from the fossil fueled early Industrial Era and move into Sustainable Abundance.

People are underestimating the unavoidably stimulative environment we're moving into(or are already in). We're about to build out 60 years of zero marginal cost energy infrastructure in 12 years. Hot stuff.

Would've been nice to go thru this starting in 1977, but human nature simply wouldn't allow it. We needed to hold onto scarcity a bit longer. I think we can all agree we're nearly completely past that fear. We all know this is doable now, so we're jumping into it.

Should be another nice long run of corporate profits before we move into Star Trek mode and such things are deemphasized.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is what Peak Scarcity looks like. Massive massive massive corporate profits as we squeeze the last juice from the fossil fueled early Industrial Era and move into Sustainable Abundance.

People are underestimating is the unavoidably stimulative environment we're moving into(or are already in). We're about to build out 60 years of zero marginal cost energy infrastructure in 12 years. Hot stuff.

Would've been nice to go thru this starting in 1977, but human nature simply wouldn't allow it. We needed to hold onto scarcity a bit longer. I think we can all agree we're nearly completely past that fear. We all know this is doable now, so we're jumping into it.

Should be another nice long run of corporate profits before we move into Star Trek mode and such things are deemphasized.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you.

 

[betstarship]

This is what Peak Scarcity looks like. Massive massive massive corporate profits as we squeeze the last juice from the fossil fueled early Industrial Era and move into Sustainable Abundance.

People are underestimating is the unavoidably stimulative environment we're moving into(or are already in). We're about to build out 60 years of zero marginal cost energy infrastructure in 12 years. Hot stuff.

Would've been nice to go thru this starting in 1977, but human nature simply wouldn't allow it. We needed to hold onto scarcity a bit longer. I think we can all agree we're nearly completely past that fear. We all know this is doable now, so we're jumping into it.

Should be another nice long run of corporate profits before we move into Star Trek mode and such things are deemphasized.

...I'm sorry, but I don't agree.

What resource is scarce? Is that scarcity true to the end user, the resource middle men, or the resourcers? We have plenty of oil. We have plenty of cash available on hand to put into the economy. We have so much better technology than in 1977 (heck, solar didn't get to 30% efficiency until the 2000's [let me know if I'm wrong here, but that's what I read about]).

It might be or have gotten to peak oil, but it's certainly not because of scarcity IMO. Happy to be wrong here. IMO - This is manufactured process/transition because our population, en masse and all together, has refused to acknowledge climate change and change our behaviors ASAP to drive the economy towards renewables. Lots of trickle down effects.

 

[bkp_duke]

[snip]

What resource is scarce?

[snip]

IQ points

 

[StealthP3D]

...I'm sorry, but I don't agree.

What resource is scarce? Is that scarcity true to the end user, the resource middle men, or the resourcers? We have plenty of oil. We have plenty of cash available on hand to put into the economy. We have so much better technology than in 1977 (heck, solar didn't get to 30% efficiency until the 2000's [let me know if I'm wrong here, but that's what I read about]).

It might be or have gotten to peak oil, but it's certainly not because of scarcity IMO. Happy to be wrong here. IMO - This is manufactured process/transition because our population, en masse and all together, has refused to acknowledge climate change and change our behaviors ASAP to drive the economy towards renewables. Lots of trickle down effects.

Oil isn't a scarce resource in the traditional sense of scarcity but, if we can't even maintain current levels of burning it without destroying our planet as we know it, then it becomes a scarce resource in effect. And that is what we are seeing right now, mostly due to the fact that there is no appetite for continued investment in oil exploration and refining. Hostilities in the Ukraine have magnified the result.

 

[hobbes]

Upgrade (but with lower target price than before):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536370070326333441

 

[betstarship]

IQ points

Dumb questions have a habit of creating smart context -> good conversation -> great answers from my experience when it's the right folks answering it that want to improve the overall discussion.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

...I'm sorry, but I don't agree.

What resource is scarce? Is that scarcity true to the end user, the resource middle men, or the resourcers? We have plenty of oil. We have plenty of cash available on hand to put into the economy. We have so much better technology than in 1977 (heck, solar didn't get to 30% efficiency until the 2000's [let me know if I'm wrong here, but that's what I read about]).

It might be or have gotten to peak oil, but it's certainly not because of scarcity IMO. Happy to be wrong here. IMO - This is manufactured process/transition because our population, en masse and all together, has refused to acknowledge climate change and change our behaviors ASAP to drive the economy towards renewables. Lots of trickle down effects.

In Scarcity(capital S) I need to take from someone to acheive my goals. The basis of human civilization til now.

Not a requirement in Sustainable Abundance. The foundation is energy, but then permeates all corners of civilization.

Edit: And most importantly, hoarding becomes impossible.

 

[bkp_duke]

Dumb questions have a habit of creating smart context -> good conversation -> great answers from my experience when it's the right folks answering it that want to improve the overall discussion.

It was a joke, that's all it was. LoL.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

...I'm sorry, but I don't agree.

What resource is scarce? Is that scarcity true to the end user, the resource middle men, or the resourcers?

I think it isn't the oil, but refining of the oil. New oil refineries aren't going to be built since there is only going to be a decline in demand from here onward. I heard (but haven't researched myself) that refineries shut down during covid/less demand and haven't started back up since it would be more profitable for the oil companies and refineries to simple let the price rise than it would be to start back up refinery production.