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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'm really hoping for a relief rally after Powell talks on Wednesday. I just can't see a .75 increase with a second negative GDP quarter coming (which means recession). The Fed doesn't need to slow down the economy anymore. It's going to go down the toilet without anymore interest rate hikes. I'm really hoping he says that they are reducing the number of rate increases, and maybe stopping them all together. 🤞
Did he say at the last meeting that .75 was off the table? I believe that was the crux of the arguing on CBNC around closing.
 
Also, much of the energy consumption in winter is from heating, which is almost entirely gas in Seattle and it doesn't need to be electrified directly. With synthetic gas made from solar and piped in using the existing pipeline infrastructure, then we could probably avoid needing to transmit electric power across the mountains to power the Seattle area.

It would be far more efficient to convert most of the Seattle area (and much more broadly) heating to geothermal and air source heat pumps than to synthesize methane using massive amounts of electricity and piping that around to be burned for space heating. Adding additional transmission infrastructure isn't that big of a deal.
 
I'm really hoping for a relief rally after Powell talks on Wednesday. I just can't see a .75 increase with a second negative GDP quarter coming (which means recession). The Fed doesn't need to slow down the economy anymore. It's going to go down the toilet without anymore interest rate hikes. I'm really hoping he says that they are reducing the number of rate increases, and maybe stopping them all together. 🤞

I just don't see the Fed turning dovish yet. They need to maintain credibility, and the economy is limping along well enough at the moment that turning dovish now would leave them looking gunshy. I also think the Fed will err on the side of crushing inflation vs. fending off a recession.

So, maybe not a 75bps increase, but I don't see any talk of a reduction in rate increases. My .02 at least.
 
This is now a “Kitchen Sink” quarter. Between shanghai lockdown, one time layoff charges, & Bitcoin impairments, Tesla should try and get as much negative earnings contributions into this quarter as possible, and set up the next 4 quarters for the blistering EPS reads.

Personally I’m hoping the craptastic moronic BTC investment gets as close to zero as possible before the end of the month so that giant suckage of an unnecessary risk is removed as a future uncertainty on earnings.

I think it's time to recognize some of that deferred tax revenue that has been sitting on the sides for years now . . .
 
I know someone here has done this calc.

My BIL in the TX energy business was describing the impossibility of the US grid being able to absorb the charging requirements of 100% private car/truck fleet. My calculations say it would take 25% of current US energy production.

What I couldn’t find was an “agreed to” number for energy reduction based on reduced requirement for crude/gasoline production/supply chain.

I seem to remember that Elon gave number that said from a vehicle mileage standpoint, it was equivalent. But I also remember there was a lot of pushback.

Any updates?

Point your BIL to this article:

FYI - Forbes is not exactly known for their pro-EV or green stance either, so that lends even more credibility to this analysis.


EDIT - and if he says "but you are just burning fossil fuels for power generation in place of an ICE car" - remind him of what Elon said somewhere about 10 years ago:
ICE engines are horribly inefficient - in the ballpark of 20% (gas) to 30% (diesel). The rest is wasted on HEAT production. If the EXACT same fuel were burned by a large power generation facility, it's efficiency is in the 60-65% range. Just a "dirty" fuel source would double the efficiency of how that fuel is used for motion.
 
I'm really hoping for a relief rally after Powell talks on Wednesday. I just can't see a .75 increase with a second negative GDP quarter coming (which means recession). The Fed doesn't need to slow down the economy anymore. It's going to go down the toilet without anymore interest rate hikes. I'm really hoping he says that they are reducing the number of rate increases, and maybe stopping them all together. 🤞
Seems to me they're zig zagging to buy time and see what happens. Perfect strategy to me. Let's get inflation peaked and see what can be done with(to) Putin.

I agree the floor is gelatinous enough, and .50 will do nicely. Buying time while also raising rates and easing into QT is beautiful.
 
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Doesn't work like that
US net profit is small due to R&D, SG&A.
Tesla has tens of billions in banked US losses.
Only after they chew through those will they have anything to offset.

Pretty sure @The Accountant has shown billions in deferred tax revenue they have built up and ready to claim, and in the past two years they have been so profitable that they have chewed through the decade plus of losses that they accumulated.
 
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Doesn't work like that
US net profit is small due to R&D, SG&A.
Tesla has tens of billions in banked US losses.
Only after they chew through those will they have anything to offset.

Reply 2, found it. Was in Tesla's shareholder deck from 2021 end of fiscal year:

TSLA net profitable.jpg


Add on to this the fact that Tesla was VERY profitable in Q1, and yes, they certainly could recognize some of that deferred tax should they want to.
 
Pretty sure @The Accountant has shown billions in deferred tax revenue they have built up and ready to claim, and in the past two years they have been so profitable that they have chewed through the decade plus of losses that they accumulated.
Pretty sure @The Accountant agreed with me and Tesla's 10K the last time I posted this.
Reply 2, found it. Was in Tesla's shareholder deck from 2021 end of fiscal year:

View attachment 816299

Add on to this the fact that Tesla was VERY profitable in Q1, and yes, they certainly could recognize some of that deferred tax should they want to.

Foriegn (China) has a large net profit, domestic does not.
SmartSelect_20220613-224948_Firefox.jpg



As of December 31, 2021, we had $31.2 billion of federal and $21.6 billion of state net operating loss carry-forwards available to offset future taxable income, some of which, if not utilized, will begin to expire in 2022 for federal and state purposes. A portion of these losses were generated by SolarCity and some of the companies we acquired, and therefore are subject to change of control provisions, which limit the amount of acquired tax attributes that can be utilized in a given tax year. We do not expect the change of control limitations to significantly impact our ability to utilize these attributes.

After evaluating all available evidence, we intend to continue maintaining a full valuation allowance on our U.S. deferred tax assets until there is sufficient evidence to support the reversal of all or some portion of these allowances. Given the improvement in our operating results and depending on the amount of stock-based compensation tax deductions available in the future, we may release the valuation allowance associated with the U.S. deferred tax assets in the next few years. Release of all, or a portion, of the valuation allowance would result in the recognition of certain deferred tax assets and a decrease to income tax expense for the period the release is recorded.

SmartSelect_20220613-224713_Firefox.jpg
 
Reply 2, found it. Was in Tesla's shareholder deck from 2021 end of fiscal year:

View attachment 816299

Add on to this the fact that Tesla was VERY profitable in Q1, and yes, they certainly could recognize some of that deferred tax should they want to.
You are missing that not all of that profit is in the US, so it is not taxable in the US. But on the other hand most of the R&D and other expenses are in the US, offsetting the US based profit.
 
Farming is not compatible with solar. Period. People try all sorts of economically subsidized schemes to force it, it is not compatible. In farming you are converting energy. In solar you are capturing energy.
Do you have math and evidence to support this confident opinion? I've reviewed some of the scientific literature on this and the verdict appears inconclusive with many tradeoffs in the system design, but overall there appears to be significant potential for certain crops in certain regions, especially as heat waves and droughts become increasingly frequent and severe.



PROTECTION AGAINST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS
When plants reach the so-called light saturation point, light is no longer beneficial to the crop, increasing water demand and potentially causing damage and hindering crop growth. Solar panels can be adjusted to allow the optimal amount of sunlight.

REDUCTION OF EVAPORATION AND INCREASE OF SOIL MOISTURE
The shade provided by the solar panels leads to a reduction in water evaporation and can achieve savings of up to 29%. Consequently, it helps to increase soil moisture, maintaining an optimal water level for plants.

IMPROVEMENT OF THE ECOSYSTEM
The integration of Agrovoltaics contributes to sustainable development and the protection and improvement of biodiversity and the ecosystem by prohibiting the use of herbicides, the use of hives and animal husbandry within the perimeter of the land and the installation of a perimeter fence with vegetation, among others.

INCREASED ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND EFFICIENCY
The existence of crops under the solar panels helps to reduce the temperature of these, increasing their productivity by up to +10% (Oregon State University).

Also:
  • Solar panels can also reduce wind, helping further reduce evaporation while also reduce wind damage to crops and topsoil erosion
  • Agrovoltaics can integrate animal grazing and beekeeping for more income streams and ecological benefits
  • Additional thermal mass helps keep temperatures more stable between day and night
 
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Article has a mistake.

a 4680 has 5X the energy capacity of a 2170, not 5X the energy DENSITY (I wish though. That would be incredible:)
While I agree that click bait main stream media can make those mistakes, because their primary consumers are in general a bit IQ challenged, a Tesla centric website should not make those kind of fundamental mistakes.
 
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Do you have math and evidence to support this confident opinion? I've reviewed some of the scientific literature on this and the verdict appears inconclusive with many tradeoffs in the system design, but overall there appears to be significant potential for certain crops in certain regions, especially as heat waves and droughts become increasingly frequent and severe.



PROTECTION AGAINST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS
When plants reach the so-called light saturation point, light is no longer beneficial to the crop, increasing water demand and potentially causing damage and hindering crop growth. Solar panels can be adjusted to allow the optimal amount of sunlight.

REDUCTION OF EVAPORATION AND INCREASE OF SOIL MOISTURE
The shade provided by the solar panels leads to a reduction in water evaporation and can achieve savings of up to 29%. Consequently, it helps to increase soil moisture, maintaining an optimal water level for plants.

IMPROVEMENT OF THE ECOSYSTEM
The integration of Agrovoltaics contributes to sustainable development and the protection and improvement of biodiversity and the ecosystem by prohibiting the use of herbicides, the use of hives and animal husbandry within the perimeter of the land and the installation of a perimeter fence with vegetation, among others.

INCREASED ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND EFFICIENCY
The existence of crops under the solar panels helps to reduce the temperature of these, increasing their productivity by up to +10% (Oregon State University).

Also:
  • Solar panels can also reduce wind, helping further reduce evaporation while also reduce wind damage to crops and topsoil erosion
  • Agrovoltaics can integrate animal grazing and beekeeping for more income streams and ecological benefits
  • Additional thermal mass helps keep temperatures more stable between day and night
This. When I was reading up on this some time back it just makes good sense.

 
You are missing that not all of that profit is in the US, so it is not taxable in the US. But on the other hand most of the R&D and other expenses are in the US, offsetting the US based profit.
One big item is Elon's stock compensation (accounting loss, but not an 'expense')
Our 2021 net operating loss included corporate income tax deductions related to our CEO’s exercise of the remaining stock options from the 2012 CEO Performance Award, which resulted in a $23.45 billion tax deduction. Such increase in net operating loss is included in our deferred income tax assets, offset by a valuation allowance. Section 162(m) of the Internal Revenue Code was amended for deductibility of executive compensation for stock grants after 2017. Therefore, we are not expecting substantial corporate income tax deductions from our CEO's subsequent option exercises.
 
As of December 31, 2021, we had $31.2 billion of federal and $21.6 billion of state net operating loss carry-forwards available to offset future taxable income, some of which, if not utilized, will begin to expire in 2022 for federal and state purposes.

I understand the difference between foreign and US profits, but the above you quoted (emphasis mine) clearly shows that Tesla has to start using these carry-forwards this year (i.e. in the current and next 2 quarters), or they lose that large tax savings forever.

I would be surprised if we don't see some of that loss carry-forward this quarter. If not, that's a whole lot to book into the final 2 quarters of the year.
 
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