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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I understand the difference between foreign and US profits, but the above you quoted (emphasis mine) clearly shows that Tesla has to start using these carry-forwards this year (i.e. in the current and next 2 quarters), or they lose that large tax savings forever.

I would be surprised if we don't see some of that loss carry-forward this quarter. If not, that's a whole lot to book into the final 2 quarters of the year.
That's net operating loss carry forward (I think the expiration part may be Solar City), not the deferred tax revenue line item. They can only offset realized income with this section.
 
Do you have math and evidence to support this confident opinion? I've reviewed some of the scientific literature on this and the verdict appears inconclusive with many tradeoffs in the system design, but overall there appears to be significant potential for certain crops in certain regions, especially as heat waves and droughts become increasingly frequent and severe.



PROTECTION AGAINST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS
When plants reach the so-called light saturation point, light is no longer beneficial to the crop, increasing water demand and potentially causing damage and hindering crop growth. Solar panels can be adjusted to allow the optimal amount of sunlight.

REDUCTION OF EVAPORATION AND INCREASE OF SOIL MOISTURE
The shade provided by the solar panels leads to a reduction in water evaporation and can achieve savings of up to 29%. Consequently, it helps to increase soil moisture, maintaining an optimal water level for plants.

IMPROVEMENT OF THE ECOSYSTEM
The integration of Agrovoltaics contributes to sustainable development and the protection and improvement of biodiversity and the ecosystem by prohibiting the use of herbicides, the use of hives and animal husbandry within the perimeter of the land and the installation of a perimeter fence with vegetation, among others.

INCREASED ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AND EFFICIENCY
The existence of crops under the solar panels helps to reduce the temperature of these, increasing their productivity by up to +10% (Oregon State University).

Also:
  • Solar panels can also reduce wind, helping further reduce evaporation while also reduce wind damage to crops and topsoil erosion
  • Agrovoltaics can integrate animal grazing and beekeeping for more income streams and ecological benefits
  • Additional thermal mass helps keep temperatures more stable between day and night
I ignored the comment as it was quite obviously wrong. Not only are farms doing this as we speak, but the future opportunities for rotation and things like hybrid community farm/solar opportunities are limitless.

Goats and other grazing livestock intermingled with solar for 2 years, soybeans for the next 2, etc.

I've posted here a couple times I think that would make a hell of a business. Deployable feild-mounted solar-as-a-service that's part of a mobile community solar project.

It's be easy enough to build machinery to "plant" rows of a massive solar array in one day. Deploy it for a set amount of time in one farm's field, pop it up and plant it halfway across the state for the next chunk of time.

You'd just need considerable storage and the rights/permission/demand required to interconnect. The array could actually travel to the demand.

I would imagine the military applications of such a setup are already in the works.
 
I ignored the comment as it was quite obviously wrong. Not only are farms doing this as we speak, but the future opportunities for rotation and things like hybrid community farm/solar opportunities are limitless.

Goats and other grazing livestock intermingled with solar for 2 years, soybeans for the next 2, etc.

I've posted here a couple times I think that would make a hell of a business. Deployable feild-mounted solar-as-a-service that's part of a mobile community solar project.

It's be easy enough to build machinery to "plant" rows of a massive solar array in one day. Deploy it for a set amount of time in one farm's field, pop it up and plant it halfway across the state for the next chunk of time.

You'd just need considerable storage and the rights/permission/demand required to interconnect. The array could actually travel to the demand.

I would imagine the military applications of such a setup are already in the works.

The problem is planting around and THROUGH the solar. My family has a farm (we rent it out to be farmed, we don't actually live on it - but we keep it because we have had it for generations).

If I asked the guys I rent out the farm to try something like this, they would come back and tell me that it is impossible to plough through the rows of solar panels or around them, not without significant risk of damage. And the margins for farmers are too small to even consider hand planting around something like that.
 
The problem is planting around and THROUGH the solar. My family has a farm (we rent it out to be farmed, we don't actually live on it - but we keep it because we have had it for generations).

If I asked the guys I rent out the farm to try something like this, they would come back and tell me that it is impossible to plough through the rows of solar panels or around them, not without significant risk of damage. And the margins for farmers are too small to even consider hand planting around something like that.
Absolutely. You're not gonna intermingle solar and regular crop rows. People have done berries and greens you'd hand harvest.

Or again, rotate. Not to circle back to scarcity, but the race to the bottom on a head of cabbage is over. I think we'll be able to afford slightly more expensive fa staples as we move into sustainable abundance.

Farming of course will have its own sustainability initiatives that'll add a bit of cost, but likely yield a better(if smaller) crop. Personally, I'm excited for chicken wings to go back to the normal size.
 
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I don't think Elon cared much about the share price until now that we have a huge crop of new employees. As evidenced by pretty much all his actions since January.

But now he wants it to rise for these guys to see some appreciation. Maybe not this quarter, but soon enough I could see them juice the earnings for the first time in a while.

The split is clearly just to keep naked shorting to a minimum this summer and buy time until earnings can really start to pile up.

For the first time in years(ever maybe?), I can see Elon actively pushing for an ATH.
 
View attachment 816287
This darn crypto market is less than a trillion now and occupies an inordinate amount of mind share and consumes tons of productive capacity and energy, with no contribution to the real economy.

Arguably the contribution is negative, with consuming ridiculous amounts of semiconductors, energy, while enabling some fraud around the edges.
Just a little lower to get it less than Tesla market cap.
 
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I didn’t take down names, but there was a whole lot of hullabaloo and a general “Oh, yeah!” in this site a very short while back - little more than a year ago - as proponents of Modern Monetary Theory, champions of which include some of the most highly popular participants here, maintained, in essence, the Fed could keep that money printing machine at 11 for…..ever, with no inflationary consequences.
I did note that not one of the verified silverbacks on this site joined in on the malarkey.

That is not fraud: that is ignorance.
 
I know someone here has done this calc.

My BIL in the TX energy business was describing the impossibility of the US grid being able to absorb the charging requirements of 100% private car/truck fleet. My calculations say it would take 25% of current US energy production.

What I couldn’t find was an “agreed to” number for energy reduction based on reduced requirement for crude/gasoline production/supply chain.

I seem to remember that Elon gave number that said from a vehicle mileage standpoint, it was equivalent. But I also remember there was a lot of pushback.

Any updates?
When I hear this objection to EVs my (UK centric) reply is that our grid can currently handle all domestic properties having a 7kW electric cooker and can manage them being on simultaneously during off-peak hours. A single phase wall connector is also 7kW and normally used off-peak.

Average daily mileage results in about 10kWh consumption or about 90 minutes charging per car meaning even a four car household should be able to charge during the most off-peak times.

Yes, net electricity consumption increases, but the power supply capacity has existed for many years.

Total non-issue, basically.
 
Huge fan of everything solar, on buildings. Farming is not compatible with solar. Period. People try all sorts of economically subsidized schemes to force it, it is not compatible. In farming you are converting energy. In solar you are capturing energy. We don’t lack for farmland, rather the converse. Create evs, scrap ethanol production (a scam), further work on biological nitrogen fixing solutions to replace energy intensive N fertilizer synthesis.
Lots of open space on a farm. Often large structures. Vehicle parking and grazing areas. We lived near where they harvested a lot of onions and the sorting facility had solar above their parking area. Another had solar in areas you couldn’t till.
Obviously you aren’t covering 100 acre fields with arrays, but farms often have tons of space which isn’t actual crops.

Drive around central California and the Napa area and you will see a lot of solar already.
 
When I hear this objection to EVs my (UK centric) reply is that our grid can currently handle all domestic properties having a 7kW electric cooker and can manage them being on simultaneously during off-peak hours. A single phase wall connector is also 7kW and normally used off-peak.

Average daily mileage results in about 10kWh consumption or about 90 minutes charging per car meaning even a four car household should be able to charge during the most off-peak times.

Yes, net electricity consumption increases, but the power supply capacity has existed for many years.

Total non-issue, basically.

Off-peak isn’t what it used to be.
Exhibit 1: Live map of electricity consumption and production sources (pretty accurate for the EU, don’t know about their data for the rest of the world): Live 24/7 CO₂ emissions of electricity consumption
Exhibit 2: EU spot electricity pricing for next day delivery (updated around noon EU): Market Data | EPEX SPOT
I’m most familiar with the situation in Belgium. The biggest part of our electricity production is nuclear, and needs to be replaced by something else in the coming years as we’re closing our nuclear power plants. The ‘something else’ will be import from other nearby countries, natural gas and a huge amount of new wind and solar capacity.
Even with the bulk of our electricity from nuclear energy we see huge swings in electricity pricing. We now typically have negative pricing during weekends and holidays. On workdays, we see the lowest pricing from 12h00 to 18h00. Off-peak charging is changing from charging during the night to charging during the afternoon.
Given the need for far more (unpredictable) renewable energy production than what we have now, I think it’s clear that we’re going to have near free charging for EV’s, because EV’s are the only things we have that can shift their electricity consumption.
Stationary home batteries can help a bit, but the sizes are typically an order of magnitude lower than EV battery sizes: 10kWh versus 100kWh. But stationary home batteries are expensive compared to EV’s: if you’d want 50kWh of storage, it would be cheaper to buy a car with a 50kWh battery and V2G support.
Tesla may not be supportive of the V2G idea because it places too much stress/wear on the batteries, but hopefully that argument expires with the availability of 1 million mile batteries. I’d buy any Tesla with V2G support immediately.
Note that the mentioned spot pricing is the pricing for the energy component of the electricity price. You still need to pay the transport/network costs. Where I live, the network cost price structure is changing from a per kWh pricing to peak capacity pricing. I.e. if you need 11kW peak (because you charge your car at that speed) you pay 11x50 euro yearly (independent of the kWh used). So the grid operators currently want you to spread your electricity usage during the day so that they need less peak capacity (actually so that they don’t need to increase peak capacity as much by giving a financial incentive to treat peak capacity as a scarce resource).
With the foreseen evolution, I expect extra financial incentives by grid operators and electricity producers for the right to control when your car charges, because it gives them a massive fine grained resource to balance grid load, production and consumption. There’s already a company in Belgium/The Netherlands (Jedlix) that gives you 1 cent/kWh for the right to control when your Tesla charges (and it’s always at the cheapest time).
EV’s are not a problem for the grid, they’re the saviours of the grid.
 
I take it back, they 've made a lot of progress on the roof down there, at least based upon this photo from 10 months ago:
View attachment 816239 Now if they can cover the parking lot(s) as well, that would more than double the output. Good on Tesla and Panasonic!
Here's the latest from the end of May. A little more progressed than your pic but still room for more.
Screenshot_20220614-080338_Chrome.jpg

Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations
 

¿Es la proxima factoria va construir en Mexico?​



In that article Elon is also quoted with
The priority is definitely getting Giga Texas up to volume production and it’s difficult to get to volume production.
Could be a general remark (it is always hard to get to volume production) but the way he says it sounds a bit like it is harder than expected to me. Maybe a connection with the 4680 ramp discussion here earlier maybe not..
 
Lots of open space on a farm. Often large structures. Vehicle parking and grazing areas. We lived near where they harvested a lot of onions and the sorting facility had solar above their parking area. Another had solar in areas you couldn’t till.
Obviously you aren’t covering 100 acre fields with arrays, but farms often have tons of space which isn’t actual crops.

Drive around central California and the Napa area and you will see a lot of solar already.
Ok, sure in the infrastructure areas. That's a good point. Farms in MD put a lot of solar on barns via some govt subsidized programs. I'm sure in CA they've done more. They could pump water into storage, etc. Solar in no til areas makes a ton of sense, but then they aren't farming them. Here in VA they're converting many farms into utility scale projects, wasn't great farmland to begin with and mostly grazing land, some grains.
 
I'm really hoping for a relief rally after Powell talks on Wednesday. I just can't see a .75 increase with a second negative GDP quarter coming (which means recession). The Fed doesn't need to slow down the economy anymore. It's going to go down the toilet without anymore interest rate hikes. I'm really hoping he says that they are reducing the number of rate increases, and maybe stopping them all together. 🤞

Fixing the inflation problem is worse in the short term but a far better option in the long term. This is not something you want to get out of control.
 
UK: EV grants disappearing. Tesla-related, not a big deal (yet), but expect some FUD. Tesla demand shouldn't be affected at all, might even lower cost difference between Tesla and previously qualifying vehicles.

Tesla was already excluded due to price limit. The biggest UK pro-EV incentives are company/company-car (personal) tax incentives (Benefit In Kind rates, salary sacrifice/pre-tax pay used for company cars).

500,000 cars mentioned might include hybrids. £3000 a couple of years ago, maybe even more before that.

1655207838453.png
 
A few months ago they were up a billion on their investment, then all the bitcoin bears were silent.

Not really. I support pulling the plug or crushing the wallet. Don’t even sell it.

It was a poorly researched mistake. The best course correction is to take the hit and move on. Selling it only does more damage. Move on.
 
... Farming is not compatible with solar. Period...
This assertion is incorrect. Some others mention it especially when referring to Agrivoltaics.
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Then, if you care to consider the vast amount of global greenhouse production of everything from citrus to vegetables one can easily see quite vast opportunity for photovoltaics surrounding such operations. Surrounding large parts of the Mediterranean coast (e.g. Northern Italy) there is large opportunity as there is in agricultural support areas.

Finally, as IIRC @Paracelsus has repeatedly shown, agricultural irrigation is typically done with open canals which produce gigantic evaporation of scarce water. Simple covering those canals with photovoltaics could reduce that evaporation and generate quite gigantic electricity. A virtuous cycle, to be sure.

Tesla, back in JB Straubel days, regularly showed how such installations could be deployed to increase resiliency, reduce costs and increase productivity. Sadly, those resist my meager Wayback Machine talents.

Bluntly, rigid absolute statements on this topic do not augment your credibility. Please do some research.first, in the future, so your credibility will not needlessly suffer.