Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
So I just got FSD beta and I have to say that I'm not all that impressed. I do think the problems I experienced can be solved - but I believe at least some of these problems have been around a while in some shape or form. I'd really be curious to know why they haven't been fixed yet. My comments after a handful of short test drives in the city.
  1. Steering needs to chill out. I had multiple instances where the car decided it needed to change direction NOW. Not smooth or confidence inspiring. Lightly holding the wheel it nearly caused me to lose grip it started spinning so fast once. You definitely get knocked around a bit.
  2. Lane choices and choice of position on road are weird at best: Normally you expect the car to pull into the bike lane when making a right turn. In traffic if it doesn't pull into the bike line, you want to take over to avoid impeding traffic. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. When it does, see #1. Had an instance where it chose the left of two turn lanes when an immediate right 100 meters down the road needed to be taken. At other times, it's cut left-corners at too high a speed in a residential neighborhood without lane markings - most people slow down and take the corner wider to avoid possible oncoming traffic.
  3. Accelerator - There needs to be some better choices made in terms of how closely to follow speed limits - on residential roads, it should reduce max speed and accelerate more gently. It seems to be a bit too cautious coming to a stop at stop signs, then very slow to resume moving. When it decides to go, though - hang on tight!
The visualization effects that come with FSD beta are phenomenal - this style of graphics definitely needs to be included in standard builds. If nothing else, it's a FSD marketing tool.

Honestly, I feel like just adding some damping on directional changes (steering, acceleration and braking) would go a long ways towards giving passengers more confidence on what the car is doing or going to do. As it is now, it is highly unpredictable and it does not induce trust that the car is going to do the right thing.

So having "tried Tesla FSD" - I am highly skeptical it will be ready in a year given the pace of progress. Most of these issues have been around a while based on experiences with EAP and early FSD beta feedback. Maybe Tesla has opted to focus on other areas of the stack and decided that these are minor issues to be resolved later. Hard to say, really, but I can honestly say that now having finally tried Tesla FSD I believe Chollet's timeframe more than Elon's...
Give it a few days and then report back. FSD beta after every update does weird things especially in the beginning. It needs to "break in" and settle. My first impressions has always been negative and then after a recalibration plus a weeks time FSD works wonders. Then another update hit and I have to go through the entire process again.
 
OK a little OT, so feel free to delete-but still-electricity related so not so bad. Was just seeing on the evening news that electricity prices are up something like 34% YoY. Anyone know why? Did a little searching-"rising oil and gas prices". Not buying it given how little of our electricity is generated by oil, and natural gas is, to the best of my knowledge, all domestically produced, so can't blame Putin. With the rise of solar, by rights it should be going down, not up. Anyone seen any good explanations?
Gas is the #1 source of electricity in the US and as of yesterday was up like 120% this year.
 
And that is why 100 certainly isn't happening and 75 is very unlikely. The housing market will crash within 6 weeks if they do 100 bps, and we all know each time that happens it always ends well.
Disagree. The market has already factored in the 75 bp increase. Anything less will tank the market as that'll confirm suspicions that Powell is too dovish.
 
Dark and Stormy is either biased in his anti-Tesla slant or he doesn't understand the context of the statement.
Although @DarkandStormy has elected to keep their profile private, the post history is visible here. For what it's worth, DarkandStormy is on my short list of profiles set to Ignore.

 
NG? Really? Didn't realize that-any specific reason? Seems like something that would be pretty isolated from a lot of the supply chain issues of many industries.
The corruption of the GWB/Cheney years started a transition that replaced coal with gas as a means of sourcing "cleaner" electricity. And it's continues right up til now.

It's makes fracking more profitable as a lot of gas supply is the byproduct of searching for oil in places like the Permian Basin.

Quite expensive, but that's fine. Makes renewables plus storage look even better by comparison.
 
NG? Really? Didn't realize that-any specific reason? Seems like something that would be pretty isolated from a lot of the supply chain issues of many industries.

For one thing, with the weather getting hotter each year, the demand for electricity for air conditioning is growing. This translates into greater demand for nat. gas. On top of that, the entire energy sector has been impacted by the turmoil in Ukraine. Lastly, far more nat. gas is being exported to Europe as LNG than in the past.
 
So I just got FSD beta and I have to say that I'm not all that impressed. I do think the problems I experienced can be solved - but I believe at least some of these problems have been around a while in some shape or form. I'd really be curious to know why they haven't been fixed yet. My comments after a handful of short test drives in the city.
  1. Steering needs to chill out. I had multiple instances where the car decided it needed to change direction NOW. Not smooth or confidence inspiring. Lightly holding the wheel it nearly caused me to lose grip it started spinning so fast once. You definitely get knocked around a bit.
  2. Lane choices and choice of position on road are weird at best: Normally you expect the car to pull into the bike lane when making a right turn. In traffic if it doesn't pull into the bike line, you want to take over to avoid impeding traffic. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. When it does, see #1. Had an instance where it chose the left of two turn lanes when an immediate right 100 meters down the road needed to be taken. At other times, it's cut left-corners at too high a speed in a residential neighborhood without lane markings - most people slow down and take the corner wider to avoid possible oncoming traffic.
  3. Accelerator - There needs to be some better choices made in terms of how closely to follow speed limits - on residential roads, it should reduce max speed and accelerate more gently. It seems to be a bit too cautious coming to a stop at stop signs, then very slow to resume moving. When it decides to go, though - hang on tight!
The visualization effects that come with FSD beta are phenomenal - this style of graphics definitely needs to be included in standard builds. If nothing else, it's a FSD marketing tool.

Honestly, I feel like just adding some damping on directional changes (steering, acceleration and braking) would go a long ways towards giving passengers more confidence on what the car is doing or going to do. As it is now, it is highly unpredictable and it does not induce trust that the car is going to do the right thing.

So having "tried Tesla FSD" - I am highly skeptical it will be ready in a year given the pace of progress. Most of these issues have been around a while based on experiences with EAP and early FSD beta feedback. Maybe Tesla has opted to focus on other areas of the stack and decided that these are minor issues to be resolved later. Hard to say, really, but I can honestly say that now having finally tried Tesla FSD I believe Chollet's timeframe more than Elon's...
I'm feeling the same. I also finally got it, and I'm not in California where people report going 40 minutes without an intervention. I can hardly do a turn without having to intervene. The other day it needed to do a left turn from a red light. The car coming the other direction was going straight. My car wanted to turn into him to make the left (the other driver probably freaked out that an oncoming car started to swerve into his path). It also can't seem to figure out what lane to be in when one lane becomes two. Then it did a right turn and proceeded to drive down the bike lane (on the wrong side of the solid white line). I also don't like how it brushes by parked cars with maybe a foot of clearance. When there is nobody coming the other way it should give three feet of space to parked cars in case there is someone in there about to open the door. It also turns too sharp and nearly curbs the rims on right turns.
 
Yes, even long term Tesla's hardware division is not zero and I argue is worth at least 1T even if they don't solve autonomy and use a 3rd party's because that 3rd party will not be building cars since they are too busy printing cash from their ride hailing app.
What I think Musk is talking about here: Someone other than Tesla creates an autonomous vehicle platform but won't license it to Tesla.

That is the only case where Tesla's car business is worthless comes true. It seems pretty unlikely at this point.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mike Ambler


In the Convention Center People Mover bidding process, Mayor Goodman voted for the Doppelmayr train bid that scored far lower on their objective rating formula and was going to cost the government 4x more money. All 13 other officials voted in favor of the Boring Co Loop design instead. At the time (2019) Mayor Goodman cited Boring's lack of experience as the reason. This is documented in the meeting minutes of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Board of Directors from 14 May 2019 and 22 May 2019.

Mayor Goodman also was the sole dissenting vote in the 10 Dec 2020 meeting where Boring Co was granted a non-exclusive right to operate a transportation system in the Las Vegas Monorail non-compete zone.

As far as I can recall the rest of the city and county government has been heavily in support, and all the major local businesses too. I expect that any continued opposition by Mayor Goodman would not significantly impair the progress of the project.

In this case, we'll have to wait and see if she's changed her mind. The tweet today about answering questions from the public about safety concerns is ambiguous regarding her current position. She might use the time to debunk the myths about safety and make people feel like their concerns are being heard, or she might spread FUD. The latter seems more probable from my point of view, but I'll give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

1655252958594.png


1655253380112.png

1655255567857.png
 
Last edited:
Also have been using FSD beta for about 1 week ... it does not drive like i would drive .... however it is really unbelievable ... i think most of my interventions are because i am jumping the gun or it is going faster than i would in a residential area ... or not dealing properly with a double parked car....
that said.... it is pretty dam amazing for non edge case drives and the level of detail on the user interface is incredible ... actually to the point of being distracting and possibly triggering my disengagements as i get distracted by the amount of info presented in beta .... switching to AP on Highway is a sensory relief ... ..it has also enhanced my confidence in AP on Hwy

.... most of my drives are Staten Island/North/Central NJ busy streets with lots of morons ...

so color me impressed...so far

just to remind those not impressed think back just a couple years ago and try to imagine any car doing this on any street in the country ...i think we are spoiled

also i never felt robotaxi would be required for FSD to be a valuable service that would make TSLA tons of FCF ... it just needs to be safer than humans ... at that point you have to be a fool to not buy it .... i am finally a the point where i feel unsafe not using AP on HWY .. i can see a day in the near term i will feel the same with FSD on local streets....
 
Last edited:
OK a little OT, so feel free to delete-but still-electricity related so not so bad. Was just seeing on the evening news that electricity prices are up something like 34% YoY. Anyone know why? Did a little searching-"rising oil and gas prices". Not buying it given how little of our electricity is generated by oil, and natural gas is, to the best of my knowledge, all domestically produced, so can't blame Putin. With the rise of solar, by rights it should be going down, not up. Anyone seen any good explanations?

It's natural gas prices, which have nearly doubled since the start of the year. Lots of US electricity comes from gas peaker plants.

In TN you are fortunate that most of your power comes from hydro and nuclear, but if memory serves me the TVA also utilizes some gas peakers. In CA, we use a LOT of gas peakers. The utilities have to go through the Public Utility Commission before they can raise rates, but they have already petitioned for another rate increase here. Gas rates already went up earlier in the year here.

EDIT - yeah, TVA gets 26% of power from natural gas:

TVA’s generation portfolio is:
39% nuclear
19% coal
26% natural gas
11% hydro
3% wind and solar
1% energy efficiency programs

Total capacity of 33,727 megawatts

EDIT 2 - natural gas prices charting:
 


What possible "safety concerns" could there be?

Am I the only one that is starting to thing certain groups and individuals are doing everything they can to derail Elon and destroy his reputation?
 

CEO of Tesla assigns a value of "basically zero" to Tesla's core business of selling EVs (and solar and battery, for that matter). Apparently FSD is the only reason Tesla is worth more than zero.
EM is engineering minded.

In engineering terms, something is basically zero when:

valuation of fsd + everything else ~= valuation of fsd
or equivalently
valuation of fsd / (valuation of fsd + everything else) tends toward 1

It just means that the value of FSD is orders of magnitude larger than existing valuation. I think we would agree that $1 is basically zero when you are dealing with money on the order of $1 million.
 
Disagree. The market has already factored in the 75 bp increase. Anything less will tank the market as that'll confirm suspicions that Powell is too dovish.

I can honestly see the market tanking under EITHER outcome. 75bp increase and the market views it as the Fed is SUPER concerned about inflation. 50bp increase and market views it as a "vote of no confidence" in Powell and the FOMC.

I wonder if we are just going to drop regardless come tomorrow.
 
Part of me wonders if Tesla could make use of a warning from the NHTSA in order to change the operational design domain (ODD) of Autopilot.

Say for example the data show most Autopilot accidents happen on secondary roads and/or non-limited access roads. The owner's manual has always said Autosteer is designed for highways and limited-access roads, but generally can be activated on any road with lane lines.

I could imagine Tesla limiting AP to highways and limited-access roads in deference to the NHTSA, and telling customers if they still want Autosteer on city streets, that's a feature only available with FSD.