Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

What possible "safety concerns" could there be?

Am I the only one that is starting to thing certain groups and individuals are doing everything they can to derail Elon and destroy his reputation?

yes like every incumbent business he is disrupting.... is out to destroy his reputation

this just gave a me a thought about investors worrying about Elon spreading himself too thin ... this is a competitive advantage for his many companies... with his multiple disruptions, how do incumbents focus their FUD and attacks when he is involved on so many fronts ...they would have to spend too much $ ... so now they attack him personally

 

[SmokyPeat]

What possible "safety concerns" could there be?

Am I the only one that is starting to thing certain groups and individuals are doing everything they can to derail Elon and destroy his reputation?

I assume it's the casinos worried about an Ocean's 11 type heist scenario utilizing the tunnels. /s

 

[woodisgood]

Am I the only one that is starting to thing certain groups and individuals are doing everything they can to derail Elon and destroy his reputation?

Yes, you're the only one.

Everyone loves to talk about disruption, but fail to understand that the scale and scope of disruption Elon spearheads is quite literally war.

 

[brantse]

... With the rise of solar, by rights it should be going down, not up. Anyone seen any good explanations?

I've long thought that the adoption of solar will cause utility rates to rise, as the fixed costs of the utilities will be applied over a diminishing amount of electricity delivered. This will continue, of course until those utilities are able to lobby PUC's to change net-metering and other laws to attempt to punish customers with solar.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I've long thought that the adoption of solar will cause utility rates to rise, as the fixed costs of the utilities will be applied over a diminishing amount of electricity delivered. This will continue, of course until those utilities are able to lobby PUC's to change net-metering and other laws to attempt to punish customers with solar.

We're a good long way from that in most US markets. Solar adoption(with net metering) up to maybe 10% of total supply is a massive savings for all ratepayers.

Rates make big jumps as additional capacity needs to be added to the grid. More demand at peak, more power plants needed, rates go up. Solar in almost every market trims that peak.

The highest demand hours on the highest demand days are generally in the sunniest summer days that precipitate huge demand for air conditioning. That's right when all this solar is producing most.

Shaving the peak means new gas plants don't need to be built. Now this obviously gets hairy as you move past 10-20% of supply, but that's when battery storage comes into play.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

It's natural gas prices, which have nearly doubled since the start of the year. Lots of US electricity comes from gas peaker plants.

In TN you are fortunate that most of your power comes from hydro and nuclear, but if memory serves me the TVA also utilizes some gas peakers. In CA, we use a LOT of gas peakers. The utilities have to go through the Public Utility Commission before they can raise rates, but they have already petitioned for another rate increase here. Gas rates already went up earlier in the year here.

EDIT - yeah, TVA gets 26% of power from natural gas:

https://www.tva.com/about-tva/tva-at-a-glance#:~:text=Today%2C%20TVA's%20generation%20portfolio%20is,total%20capacity%20of%2033%2C727%20megawatts.

TVA’s generation portfolio is:
39% nuclear
19% coal
26% natural gas
11% hydro
3% wind and solar
1% energy efficiency programs

Total capacity of 33,727 megawatts

EDIT 2 - natural gas prices charting:

Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart

Interactive chart illustrating the history of Henry Hub natural gas prices. The prices shown are in U.S. dollars.

www.macrotrends.net

Yeah, I had seen numbers like that before-really assumed TVA got a lot higher portion of there generating capacity from hydro!

Just found this as well, explaining NG prices. Natural Gas Prices Explained | American Gas Association

 

[MadScientist23]

Part of me wonders if Tesla could make use of a warning from the NHTSA in order to change the operational design domain (ODD) of Autopilot.

Say for example the data show most Autopilot accidents happen on secondary roads and/or non-limited access roads. The owner's manual has always said Autosteer is designed for highways and limited-access roads, but generally can be activated on any road with lane lines.

I could imagine Tesla limiting AP to highways and limited-access roads in deference to the NHTSA, and telling customers if they still want Autosteer on city streets, that's a feature only available with FSD.

speaking of this i think it may already be in work. I noticed that the imaging of controlled roads (highways) is different lately with a solid white line on the navigation, while other roads are just satellite images. I was wondering why this would be but your comment is making me think this may be tied together.

 

[The Accountant]

“Anything less will tank the market”…?

Umm, what?!?

Come on! Get with the Program.
Anything less than 0.75% tanks the market.
Anything more than 0.75% tanks the market.
In fact, exactly a 0.75% increase tanks the market as well.
The media will parade out their “experts” minutes after the rate announcement to tell us how this is all horrible.

 

[geometro]

Come on! Get with the Program.
Anything less than 0.75% tanks the market.
Anything more than 0.75% tanks the market.
In fact, exactly a 0.75% increase tanks the market as well.
The media will parade out their “experts” to tell us how this is all horrible.

Sorry, my apologies… now fully onboard the “market-tanking” program.

 

[Gigapress]

What possible "safety concerns" could there be?

Am I the only one that is starting to thing certain groups and individuals are doing everything they can to derail Elon and destroy his reputation?

Common safety concerns include fires and emergency egress, flooding, crashes, explosives, moronic drivers, earthquakes, autonomous operation, tunnel collapse, and emergency vehicle access. Many people are even under the impression that the tunnel isn’t wide enough to open your door and get out of the vehicle in an emergency.

The concerns are rooted in misunderstanding but they exist nevertheless.

Several highly popular YouTube videos have been claiming Loop is a death trap and people frequently visit r/BoringCompany to debate this topic.

Considering the meeting minutes, it appears Mayor Goodman may be concerned that betting the city’s reputation and mass transit strategy on Boring Co is too risky due to their inexperience and short track record, and also that LVCVA is the wrong organization within the local government to be handling transportation infrastructure in the first place—with the Loop or the Monorail. Maybe she’s just corrupt or maybe there’s another reason; it’s not clear from the information I’ve seen.

If the Mayor does in fact use the upcoming public discussion to address concerns and present the facts as her tweet today ostensibly indicates, that would be very helpful in clearing up misconceptions.

To reiterate some of my recent posts (1 and 2), Vegas Loop development is extremely on topic to Tesla and TSLA investing because Vegas Loop is going to put more butts in seats than all of Tesla’s showrooms combined, and when people ride in Teslas they tend to want to buy their own. Vegas gets 42 million annual visitors who are almost all going to want to take the Loop to save time and money, and by the time it’s built out it’ll probably be operating in robotaxi mode. This is a recipe for blowing minds and driving traffic to www.Tesla.com. All other demand generation factors will pale in comparison.

 

[Dave EV]

Give it a few days and then report back. FSD beta after every update does weird things especially in the beginning. It needs to "break in" and settle. My first impressions has always been negative and then after a recalibration plus a weeks time FSD works wonders. Then another update hit and I have to go through the entire process again.

Yes - I've heard this a few times before, so I will continue to use it and see how it does. I hope you're right!

I'd be very curious to know exactly what is recalibrating during this process if it is indeed doing that.

I'm feeling the same. I also finally got it, and I'm not in California where people report going 40 minutes without an intervention. I can hardly do a turn without having to intervene. The other day it needed to do a left turn from a red light. The car coming the other direction was going straight. My car wanted to turn into him to make the left (the other driver probably freaked out that an oncoming car started to swerve into his path). It also can't seem to figure out what lane to be in when one lane becomes two. Then it did a right turn and proceeded to drive down the bike lane (on the wrong side of the solid white line). I also don't like how it brushes by parked cars with maybe a foot of clearance. When there is nobody coming the other way it should give three feet of space to parked cars in case there is someone in there about to open the door. It also turns too sharp and nearly curbs the rims on right turns.

Yes, I've noticed many of the same things.

Also have been using FSD beta for about 1 week ... it does not drive like i would drive .... however it is really unbelievable ... i think most of my interventions are because i am jumping the gun or it is going faster than i would in a residential area ... or not dealing properly with a double parked car....
that said.... it is pretty dam amazing for non edge case drives and the level of detail on the user interface is incredible ... actually to the point of being distracting and possibly triggering my disengagements as i get distracted by the amount of info presented in beta .... switching to AP on Highway is a sensory relief ... ..it has also enhanced my confidence in AP on Hwy

.... most of my drives are Staten Island/North/Central NJ busy streets with lots of morons ...

so color me impressed...so far

just to remind those not impressed think back just a couple years ago and try to imagine any car doing this on any street in the country ...i think we are spoiled

also i never felt robotaxi would be required for FSD to be a valuable service that would make TSLA tons of FCF ... it just needs to be safer than humans ... at that point you have to be a fool to not buy it .... i am finally a the point where i feel unsafe not using AP on HWY .. i can see a day in the near term i will feel the same with FSD on local streets....

Agreed - I really am amazed that it does as well as it does - I just feel that given the apparent awareness, some relatively small tweaks to the control algorithms would make it behave a lot more like humans and allow you to be more confident in it's abilities. I never really thought it was putting me into an unsafe situation or a on a trajectory where it was going to get into an accident, but it wasn't a comfortable ride for sure.

Of course, maybe Tesla is doing that intentionally to keep drivers paying attention, but again - I see this as a marketing tool and the better it does, the more cars Tesla sells and the more $TSLA goes up.

 

[henchman24]

Fed guidance is too important for the markets to risk a 75bps raise. IMO them doing that will look very reactionary and bending to the market’s will. Both are very bad looks and would deteriorate trust in the Fed even further. 100 bps is just a more extreme version. 50bps while pointing out positives while putting 75bps on the table for July is the most likely outcome. Everything else looks too reactionary.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Didn't see it mentioned but someone asked Elon on Twitter when v11 is coming:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536877529721491457

Looks like we may see wide release in the next few months of v11 fsd. He specifically says wide release and not beta.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Guys, you should all know better than to believe any of Elon's FSD timelines...

 

[CLK350]

Besides Wednesday's probable turbulence, expect more on Thursday in case Elon's Twitter all employees meting turns out to also be the announcement that a deal has been reached

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536765643512479746

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536956853829226497

 

[MABMAB]

I've long thought that the adoption of solar will cause utility rates to rise, as the fixed costs of the utilities will be applied over a diminishing amount of electricity delivered. This will continue, of course until those utilities are able to lobby PUC's to change net-metering and other laws to attempt to punish customers with solar.

Why do you think these things?
Have you done any research to inform this opinion?

We have solar. A component of our electric bill is a base facilities charge to cover the fixed costs. For our provider, this amount can not be reduced by excess generation (though I think it should be).

 

[Matias]

Ford issues stop-sale of electric Mustang Mach-E crossovers due to potential safety defect

Ford says the issue with the Mustang Mach-E crossovers could cause the vehicles to become immobile.

www.cnbc.com

At least it is getting some press. Still the irony abounds. This will likely require "dealer service", and F stock is up. If Tesla had a similar issue, it would already be fixed with an OTA upgrade, but their stock would be "down on a recall".

Yep, game is rigged. Rigged by big oil.

Ford stops Mustang Mach-E deliveries ahead of safety recall without fix for now

Ford has told its dealerships to stop delivering Mustang Mach-E as it found a defect in recent models. It doesn’t...

electrek.co

 

[Matias]

Haven't been there extensively, but the Mach E forums also have a significant number of owners complaining of significant range degradation. One almost wonders if Ford and GM released Edsels on purpose to poison EV receptiveness. Either that or they are just incompetent. 50/50 ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor?wprov=sfti1

 

[brantse]

Why do you think these things?
Have you done any research to inform this opinion?

We have solar. A component of our electric bill is a base facilities charge to cover the fixed costs. For our provider, this amount can not be reduced by excess generation (though I think it should be).

I've done lots of research and installed a half dozen systems. It's pretty simple and will clearly happen that way, unless something changes. Here in PA, we're net-metered and my connection fee is like $10. That fee won't cover the utility's fixed costs, and as each customer who installs solar that results in one less customer to cover those costs and the costs for everyone else will need to go up. Similar to electric vehicles, the last people to adopt and convert over will be the ones who are most impacted, as they're typically lower income and the costs not to adopt will continue to rise.

I do think something will change, as we've seen in some states. There will need to be a larger connection fee (maybe $40 a month) to cover the utility's costs to maintain the grid. I just hope that gets worked out and applied fairly, rather than making drastic changes and penalizing those who made large investments in solar systems.