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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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At the last meeting, didn't the Fed say they were going to do 50 points?
They said 50 bps at next two meetings and then see. They also stated in March and May the 75bps was off the table. To me, this is wildly reactionary and really shows they don't seem to have any control or coherent plan. More than anything else, that is the most concerning thing to me.
 
At the last meeting, didn't the Fed say they were going to do 50 points?

They did. Which is part of the problem with the market right now, Powell keeps changing his mind and can't stick to any one plan. This creates uncertainty which the market dislikes, thus the downward trend and volatility. Energy is the real problem right now and I don't see how the Fed hiking rates will lower the cost of energy....

Hopefully inflation finally cools off and the market can start relaxing a bit soon. I'm a bit worried though.
 
The biggest problem is the price of oil/gasoline. It affects everything. The cost of food in the Supermarket and items in stores. Raising rates won't bring down the price of oil. It will destroy the housing market and cause a recession. Great job Powell.
Plus Retail sales have been slowing down. So really don't get what "data" these people are using, or their logic. Mortgage rate are already sky high and brokers are telling me the market has slowed down big time.
 
I thought that was a good thing.. Like usual who knows.
The rate isn't the problem IMO... it is that the trust has completely eroded (market clearly didn't trust through May/June and this shows they were right). Markets will spike mortgage rates at any inflation now. So when June still comes in hot (though decreasing, especially on core), we might see mortgage rates near 7%. That has potential to collapse the housing market, which even if it isn't an 08 level event (and I really doubt it will be)... they almost always cause major recessions.
 
Not only does google have zero night-time data, they also are PAYING for those cars to be built, and driven. Tesla get given $10,000 in profit every time someone buys one of their mapping cars, and an extra $10,000 if they choose FSD option. The economics of Tesla's data collection for autonomy vs every other company on the planet is hilarious.

I'm sure senior technical people at other autonomy companies must KNOW how doomed their approach is, but want to cash in the hi
gh salaries and stock options to buy a house quickly before Tesla's approach totally embarrasses them and the efforts have to be terminated.

Of ALL Tesla's business areas and projects, its FSD where, IMHO they have the clearest, most dramatic lead over everyone else. But 95% of stock analysts are not neural network and machine learning experts, so they cannot see what is sat there right in front of them.
I've made a similar case. "Autonomous" systems that require special drivers to go out and collect up-to-date near real time data to constantly update their databases just doesn't seem like a viable, cost effective, long term approach. Waymo and Cruise have a handful of "robotaxis" running around in a couple highly restricted, geofenced areas-and they only operate on some streets, and at least in SF, only in the middle of the night when there is no traffic. Other companies have "hand free driver assistance" that only works on a few % of roads, mostly a few major highways. Tesla's entire approach, of putting autonomous hardware on every single vehicle sold and being able to access that data at any time means their "data collection" is essentially free (or as you say, they are getting paid for it). It seems like a difference between true AI vs coding that is limited to canned responses on a limited number of roads. I'm sure that's greatly oversimplifying things.
 
They did. Which is part of the problem with the market right now, Powell keeps changing his mind and can't stick to any one plan. This creates uncertainty which the market dislikes, thus the downward trend and volatility. Energy is the real problem right now and I don't see how the Fed hiking rates will lower the cost of energy....

Hopefully inflation finally cools off and the market can start relaxing a bit soon. I'm a bit worried though.
Fed rate hikes are currently the ultimate lagging indicator. And are causing instability not stability. There is no good reason for 0.75 with the current data. Hindsight is 20/20 but it seems obvious they have little to no idea what is happening with the economy. If they continue with 0.75 hikes this year we'll start to see rapid deflation.

On the flip side, staying with 0.75 will help Tesla as it is going to hurt legacy ICE.
 
Fed rate hikes are currently the ultimate lagging indicator. And are causing instability not stability. There is no good reason for 0.75 with the current data. Hindsight is 20/20 but it seems obvious they have little to no idea what is happening with the economy. If they continue with 0.75 hikes this year we'll start to see rapid deflation.

On the flip side, staying with 0.75 will help Tesla as it is going to hurt legacy ICE.
Or they hit the brakes with 0.75 and the next data sets show the chance of furher inflation flew right by.
Allowing for lower future increases and possibly less total increase.
 
Honestly, happy with this Fed rate change and projections. Finally seems like the FOMC is on target to do their job.

The major concern I have, which others here have voiced, is the cost of energy. When that drops seems very murky still.

Big jump in TSLA since Jerome started speaking... wud'he say?

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2022-06-15.14-45.50.png

EDIT: thanks, @Big Time for the update. TSLA now at the Mid-BB

Cheers!
 
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