Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[madodel]

Honestly, happy with this Fed rate change and projections. Finally seems like the FOMC is on target to do their job.

The major concern I have, which others here have voiced, is the cost of energy. When that drops seems very murky still.

The rise in the cost of oil and resultant even higher increase in cost of gasoline is not a bug but the oil producer/refiners' end game. Profits rule, and the buggy whips they are selling aren't going to have much of a market in 10-15 years. They've known this for years and I don't see them allowing prices to come down in the foreseeable future.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

They did. Which is part of the problem with the market right now, Powell keeps changing his mind and can't stick to any one plan. This creates uncertainty which the market dislikes, thus the downward trend and volatility. Energy is the real problem right now and I don't see how the Fed hiking rates will lower the cost of energy....

Hopefully inflation finally cools off and the market can start relaxing a bit soon. I'm a bit worried though.

By definition, Fed moves MUST NOT be predictable. That's the whole point, there needs to be a somewhat random variable that moves unexpectedly but generally in the "better" direction for a healthy economy.

Clearly the market loves this .75 hike and we now have 3 quarter point rate cuts back in our toolbelt for use down the line.

From my simple perspective, that's perfect. Hike as much as you can without crashing markets to reload bullets for when we need them.

 

[thx1139]

Still dont expect the Fed rate increase to do much. Oil Industry is playing games with production until after midterms because Oil Industry wants to stop fight against climate change. Supply Chain isnt going to be fixed by a rate increase. We will see.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Was wondering when MM’s we’re gonna step in considering max pain this week. 700 seems to the the numbers. TSLA was approaching 3X it’s beta just 15 mins ago, now below 2X

I don't see them holding 700, even through today. Volume seems pretty brisk and they can only eat so many buy orders before the algo calls reverse and has to unwind a bit. It's not like anyone is actually selling large chunks of TSLA today.

 

[Krugerrand]

By definition, Fed moves MUST NOT be predictable. That's the whole point, there needs to be a somewhat random variable that moves unexpectedly but generally in the "better" direction for a healthy economy.

Clearly the market loves this .75 hike and we now have 3 quarter point rate cuts back in our toolbelt for use down the line.

From my simple perspective, that's perfect. Hike as much as you can without crashing markets to reload bullets for when we need them.

It’s like nobody gets it. The FED is not in charge.

You know why the market loves the .75? Because the market (the people who are really in charge) got what they wanted.

Just look at them lining their pockets.

 

[Big Dog]

They put a gun to the Feds head with the 75 point hike.

Bloomberg this AM was explicitly stating that the market would sell off if the 75 point hike was not enacted as the Fed would no longer be trusted by the market to contain anything. And they were not alone.

Seems the market expected it and likes it for today. At least so far lol.

It will probably weaken into the close...

WTH? I said the exact same thing yesterday and got some dislikes. How come no one disliked traxilla's post?

(Hint: it was just common sense, as even a 75 bp hike is still dove-ish.)

 

[ninpb]

Is this what "priced in" means?

 

[henchman24]

Is this what "priced in" means?

Yup

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It’s like nobody gets it. The FED is not in charge.

You know why the market loves the .75? Because the market (the people who are really in charge) got what they wanted.

Just look at them lining their pockets.

Personally I find that a bit comforting. Like when Goldman clearly would have gone belly-up in 2009 if I didn't bail them out. In 2007 I was dead certain that Goldman ran the world and that would never change.

To see the Fed get pushed around a bit gives me a similar feeling that maybe the world isn't as rigid as what's in my mind.

And yes, the dickholes line their pockets. That's their job. Maybe fully decentralized energy puts a stop to that? You never know!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Anyone have any thoughts on at what point inflation becomes a real problem for margins? I mean 5% probably won't be too bad but 20% probably would when many have locked in the price a year before delivery. Not that it will go to 20%, just thinking about at what point this could become a significant problem with orders being a year or more old.

If inflation does stay high, actually getting the low spec models that have long delivery times might become popular as an investment idea.

Good thing they didn't let anyone lock in the price in dogmoney though. Guess Elon didn't trust crypto as being anti-inflation enough for that ...

 

[bkp_duke]

The rise in the cost of oil and resultant even higher increase in cost of gasoline is not a bug but the oil producer/refiners' end game. Profits rule, and the buggy whips they are selling aren't going to have much of a market in 10-15 years. They've known this for years and I don't see them allowing prices to come down in the foreseeable future.

Of course, but they also with exceptionally high prices like this induce additional rapid demand destruction (people stop road tripping, buy more fuel efficient cars, etc.).

It's the proverbial frog in boiling water. If prices had increased slowly, demand destruction would be little to none. The rapid increase in energy prices, however, will hasten the oil producers demise, and I suspect they see that and will try to moderate prices as much as possible over the next 6 months (war allowing with supply uncertainties there).

 

[Ogre]

Of course, but they also with exceptionally high prices like this induce additional rapid demand destruction (people stop road tripping, buy more fuel efficient cars, etc.).

It's the proverbial frog in boiling water. If prices had increased slowly, demand destruction would be little to none. The rapid increase in energy prices, however, will hasten the oil producers demise, and I suspect they see that and will try to moderate prices as much as possible over the next 6 months (war allowing with supply uncertainties there).

Unless they have capitulated.

How much quicker can people transition away from oil?

They've transitioned away from trying to attract new addicts and are just trying to extort the maximum amount of profit out of the addicts which they have right now. The planet can only move away from oil so quickly. If they can extract more profits by squeezing harder now, it might be the better long term move (from a profit standpoint).

There is only so much reduction people can do. They may well ride this out to the end, squeezing every drop of profit out of the system they can the whole way down. Lots of industries cannot move away. We can't make enough EVs to meet demand for quite some time so the poor are stuck footing the bill. There is a long tail here they can keep the profits flowing for some time.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Little chart tidbit, motor Vehicle production since 1954 smoothed out using 5 year rolling average:

View attachment 816872
Blue = Western Europe (EU-15 + Norway and Switzerland). Interestingly it looks like the US will produce more motor vehicles than western Europe this year for the first time since 1968.

Aaaagghhhhhh! Unlabaled axes!

 

[ZachF]

Heeyyyyo!

 

[2daMoon]

Unless they have capitulated.

How much quicker can people transition away from oil?

They've transitioned away from trying to attract new addicts and are just trying to extort the maximum amount of profit out of the addicts which they have right now. The planet can only move away from oil so quickly. If they can extract more profits by squeezing harder now, it might be the better long term move (from a profit standpoint).

There is only so much reduction people can do. They may well ride this out to the end, squeezing every drop of profit out of the system they can the whole way down. Lots of industries cannot move away. We can't make enough EVs to meet demand for quite some time so the poor are stuck footing the bill for. There is a long tail here they can keep the profits flowing for some time.

Plus, this will hasten spending approvals on battery, solar, and wind projects to replace fossil energy infrastructure as their time to see return on the investment gets better with rising fuel prices.

 

[ZachF]

Aaaagghhhhhh! Unlabaled axes!

I know, I know… I didn’t know how to do it on my Google sheets phone version.

 

[Ogre]

Heeyyyyo!

I won't be donning a party hat until we're back around $900. Even then, I won't crack the fancy beer.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't see them holding 700, even through today. Volume seems pretty brisk and they can only eat so many buy orders before the algo calls reverse and has to unwind a bit. It's not like anyone is actually selling large chunks of TSLA today.

Mm’s seem to have zero issue capping around 700. TSLA now very much underperforming it’s beta. They just gotta keep it close while there’s volume and then it’ll get walked down tomorrow or Friday when volume dries up.

We’ve seen this playbook time and time again.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't see them holding 700, even through today. Volume seems pretty brisk and they can only eat so many buy orders before the algo calls reverse and has to unwind a bit. It's not like anyone is actually selling large chunks of TSLA today.

TSLA retesting the Mid-BB right now, after falling back to 692 after the 1st attempt:



Elon starting to look like a genius CEO now, having predicted inflation, recession, WHILE paying off Tesla's debt in full, cutting adminstrative barnacles staff, and raising prices faster than expenses. Well played, sir! Tesla perfectly positioned for growth over the next 2 years; so in TSLA.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Ogre]

Plus, this will hasten spending approvals on battery, solar, and wind projects to replace fossil energy infrastructure as their time to see return on the investment gets better with rising fuel prices.

They can extract a lot of money in the next 10 years as we transition. They know they don't have 20 years more of the free ride. Probably the best case is squeeze for all they have. Invest profits in Tesla and solar then participate in the very thing that ended their previous empire.