Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Mm’s seem to have zero issue capping around 700. TSLA now very much underperforming it’s beta. They just gotta keep it close while there’s volume and then it’ll get walked down tomorrow or Friday when volume dries up.

We’ve seen this playbook time and time again.

Certainly possible, but macro sentiment seems to be reversing to me. I'd like to see a couple weeks of WTI drifting down first, but it feels like pushing down on a Friday might be harder now.

It is triple witching, so we'll see. Lots of incentive to build up a naked short position this week then unwind Monday.

 

[Knightshade]

Unless they have capitulated.

How much quicker can people transition away from oil?

They've transitioned away from trying to attract new addicts and are just trying to extort the maximum amount of profit out of the addicts which they have right now. The planet can only move away from oil so quickly. If they can extract more profits by squeezing harder now, it might be the better long term move (from a profit standpoint).

There is only so much reduction people can do. They may well ride this out to the end, squeezing every drop of profit out of the system they can the whole way down. Lots of industries cannot move away. We can't make enough EVs to meet demand for quite some time so the poor are stuck footing the bill. There is a long tail here they can keep the profits flowing for some time.

Exactly this. Some examples from CEOs in the industry-

Devon Energy Q3 2021 Earnings Call
"We will continue to prioritize free cash flow generation over the pursuit of
volume growth. We have no intention of adding incremental barrels into the
market..."


Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub
"We have no need and no intent to invest in production growth. Investing for
the sake of growth is not what investors want."

Pioneer natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield
"I'll tell him [President Biden] we have a pact with our shareholders. it's all
about the shareholders, our shareholders own this company. They want a return
of cash."



The only thing MOAR OIL PRODUCTION gets them going forward is higher costs finding and extracting it, and lower prices while they sell it. They're perfectly happy to keep supply constrained and gouge for as long as possible.

 

[bkp_duke]

Unless they have capitulated.

How much quicker can people transition away from oil?

They've transitioned away from trying to attract new addicts and are just trying to extort the maximum amount of profit out of the addicts which they have right now. The planet can only move away from oil so quickly. If they can extract more profits by squeezing harder now, it might be the better long term move (from a profit standpoint).

There is only so much reduction people can do. They may well ride this out to the end, squeezing every drop of profit out of the system they can the whole way down. Lots of industries cannot move away. We can't make enough EVs to meet demand for quite some time so the poor are stuck footing the bill. There is a long tail here they can keep the profits flowing for some time.

Without new products for them to transition to (EVs - supply constrained, heat pumps, etc. etc.), not very quickly. Then we get into the discussion of why these products haven't ramped up quicker . . . and we all have a pretty good idea why that is.

 

[Krugerrand]

Personally I find that a bit comforting. Like when Goldman clearly would have gone belly-up in 2009 if I didn't bail them out. In 2007 I was dead certain that Goldman ran the world and that would never change.

To see the Fed get pushed around a bit gives me a similar feeling that maybe the world isn't as rigid as what's in my mind.

And yes, the dickholes line their pockets. That's their job. Maybe fully decentralized energy puts a stop to that? You never know!

Yes, decentralized energy.
Yes, decentralized banking/finance.
Yes, decentralized a lot of things.

The people have given away their power for far too long. The problem is that the majority of people wouldn’t know what to do with themselves if they had to think and do for themselves. So, they’re content to complain and blame and point fingers and suffer the consequences of allowing a few (bad apples) to rule over them without consequences.

Behold, the consequences are coming in the form of The Messiah’s companies. I just want to still be alive to see this planet turned on its head and the mouse nuts of the bad actors squashed to a pulp.

Admittedly, I might be a tad annoyed with the SP at this point.

 

[jerry33]

WTH? I said the exact same thing yesterday and got some dislikes. How come no one disliked traxilla's post?

(Hint: it was just common sense, as even a 75 bp hike is still dove-ish.)

In the 1960s, American Bandstand asked kids what songs would be a hit after playing them. Turns out the kids were terrible predictors. 'Nuff said.

 

[2daMoon]

They can extract a lot of money in the next 10 years as we transition. They know they don't have 20 years more of the free ride. Probably the best case is squeeze for all they have. Invest profits in Tesla and solar then participate in the very thing that ended their previous empire.

Talk about having some big whales come to feast on TSLA!
Those folks would have good reason to go all-in, and have very deep cushions on their couches.

Kinda makes you feel sorry for the Shortzes and MMs, doesn't it?
Nah, it really doesn't.

 

[thx1139]

Exactly this. Some examples from CEOs in the industry-

Devon Energy Q3 2021 Earnings Call
"We will continue to prioritize free cash flow generation over the pursuit of
volume growth. We have no intention of adding incremental barrels into the
market..."


Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub
"We have no need and no intent to invest in production growth. Investing for
the sake of growth is not what investors want."

Pioneer natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield
"I'll tell him [President Biden] we have a pact with our shareholders. it's all
about the shareholders, our shareholders own this company. They want a return
of cash."



The only thing MOAR OIL PRODUCTION gets them going forward is higher costs finding and extracting it, and lower prices while they sell it. They're perfectly happy to keep supply constrained and gouge for as long as possible.

Add to this, but holding production has the added benefit to the industry that Democratic Party gets blamed and stands bigger chance of losing midterms. Then any attempt to fight climate change with govt assistance goes away and it lengthens the tail.

So choices are.
Increase production which cuts profits, and tail gets cut because climate change gets government support.
Hold production which increases profits, and tail grows as climate change battle gets no government support.

Yes gas prices will eventually lead to more EVs being bought and Oil companies will simply adjust production in the future to lower prices and slow the transition.

 

[Krugerrand]

I won't be donning a party hat until we're back around $900. Even then, I won't crack the fancy beer.

Wow, you’re easy to please. Not a single eyebrow twitch from me until we see $1500+. I may be cheap, but I ain’t easy.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

OK folks, the Fed is done. Elon is done selling shares. There's a meeting tomorrow with Twitter employees where hopefully a revised deal gets announced at a slightly lower price. Or maybe even the original offer.

Either way, we very likely get to put a bow on this entire chaotic downswing in less than 24hrs. With any luck, far less uncertainty on the other side of these Twitter comments.

I want everyone dressed, focused, and in rally mode 8:30am Eastern tomorrow!

 

[wipster]

And cocaine

Back where it belongs... in Coca Cola!

 

[Ogre]

Wow, you’re easy to please. Not a single eyebrow twitch from me until we see $1500+. I may be cheap, but I ain’t easy.

It’s a best guess, but based on the shifts in my portfolio since last year I suspect at around $900 my portfolio will tap its ATH. That’s always cause for a celebration.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

OK folks, the Fed is done. Elon is done selling shares. There's a meeting tomorrow with Twitter employees where hopefully a revised deal gets announced at a slightly lower price. Or maybe even the original offer.

Either way, we very likely get to put a bow on this entire chaotic downswing in less than 24hrs. With any luck, far less uncertainty on the other side of these Twitter comments.

I want everyone dressed, focused, and in rally mode 8:30am Eastern tomorrow!

10% down day coming tomorrow people

 

[bkp_duke]

OK folks, the Fed is done. Elon is done selling shares. There's a meeting tomorrow with Twitter employees where hopefully a revised deal gets announced at a slightly lower price. Or maybe even the original offer.

Either way, we very likely get to put a bow on this entire chaotic downswing in less than 24hrs. With any luck, far less uncertainty on the other side of these Twitter comments.

I want everyone dressed, focused, and in rally mode 8:30am Eastern tomorrow!

Still major uncertainly on Q2 P&D numbers. We've got another 16-17 days before that is out and clears uncertainly around TSLA specifically.

 

[wipster]

699 at closing... not 700 but better than a jab in the ass with a frozen carrot!

 

[Ogre]

Without new products for them to transition to (EVs - supply constrained, heat pumps, etc. etc.), not very quickly. Then we get into the discussion of why these products haven't ramped up quicker . . . and we all have a pretty good idea why that is.

It’s no mystery. Most CEOs plan 2-3 years out at most. Thus the semi sincere commitment to EVs only came after it was clear Tesla was going to eat the industry alive. Investing in things which is 10 years away might cause short term pain which bothers shareholders. Better to up the dividend a bit or buyback some shares so you can hit your executive compensation package.

 

[Ogre]

Looks like we’ll be seeing more tunnels under Vegas. It’ll be nice to be able to take a shuttle from the airport to my hotel with no traffic.

They need to extend this out to Henderson so I walk to it from my uncle’s place.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537150997511872512

Bootleg Canyon and Hoover Dam would be nice stops too.

 

[henchman24]

Mm’s seem to have zero issue capping around 700. TSLA now very much underperforming it’s beta. They just gotta keep it close while there’s volume and then it’ll get walked down tomorrow or Friday when volume dries up.

We’ve seen this playbook time and time again.

Gonna ignore the beta from yesterday? And today ended roughly where it usually does (between 2 and 2.5).

Anyone have any thoughts on at what point inflation becomes a real problem for margins? I mean 5% probably won't be too bad but 20% probably would when many have locked in the price a year before delivery. Not that it will go to 20%, just thinking about at what point this could become a significant problem with orders being a year or more old.

If inflation does stay high, actually getting the low spec models that have long delivery times might become popular as an investment idea.

Good thing they didn't let anyone lock in the price in dogmoney though. Guess Elon didn't trust crypto as being anti-inflation enough for that ...

I don’t think inflation will hit the margins that much. Tesla has priced in very aggressive increases in advance.

My concern on margins is the strengthening dollar against the yuan. The yuan has cratered in the last two-theee weeks, and the 75bps will accelerate that. I expect a material difference in the margins there if that continues through the year.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gonna ignore the beta from yesterday? And today ended roughly where it usually does (between 2 and 2.5).

I don’t think inflation will hit the margins that much. Tesla has priced in very aggressive increases in advance.

My concern on margins is the strengthening dollar against the yuan. The yuan has cratered in the last two-theee weeks, and the 75bps will accelerate that. I expect a material difference in the margins there if that continues through the year.

Haha well, that last 30 mins of trading changed things dramatically from when I posted that. Quite the divergence there in those 30 mins

 

[KMCC]

699 at closing... not 700 but better than a jab in the ass with a frozen carrot!

I'll take the frozen carrot and $1500

 

[Brn2Run]

OK folks, the Fed is done. Elon is done selling shares. There's a meeting tomorrow with Twitter employees where hopefully a revised deal gets announced at a slightly lower price. Or maybe even the original offer.

Either way, we very likely get to put a bow on this entire chaotic downswing in less than 24hrs. With any luck, far less uncertainty on the other side of these Twitter comments.

I want everyone dressed, focused, and in rally mode 8:30am Eastern tomorrow!

Anybody thinks Elon will sell more shares tomorrow? Or maybe he has done earlier this week. I think he`ll sell.