Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Fed chair Powell: I said if data came in worse than expected, we would move more aggressively | CNBC TV

TSLA up to $705 After-hrs on 850K shares traded.

 

[Gigapress]

Looks like we’ll be seeing more tunnels under Vegas. It’ll be nice to be able to take a shuttle from the airport to my hotel with no traffic.

They need to extend this out to Henderson so I walk to it from my uncle’s place.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537150997511872512

Bootleg Canyon and Hoover Dam would be nice stops too.

Lots of new information in this hearing beyond just the approval vote. Concerns earlier today about Mayor Goodman opposition or FUD did not materialize and she ended up voting in favor. The Mayor led the meeting and was entirely reasonable in my opinion. She was very positive on the presentation and the project.

Spoiler: TL;DW Notes

Today's meeting approved the Monorail Agreement for the 5 miles planned within City of Las Vegas limits (step 2 in slide below). Note: The Strip is not part of City of Las Vegas, this is more for downtown Las Vegas

Agreement Highlights

• 50 year non-exclusive franchise agreement which is 95% the same terms as the Clark County Planning Commission approved last year
• Agreement is basically just allowing TBC to use the public right-of-way (goes underneath roads)
• Still asking for zero taxpayer money
• Flexible funding mechanisms built in for if City/County wants to fund "civic stations" on public property, such as Boulder Plaza in the downtown Arts District

New System Updates

• Groups of passengers sharing a fare may do a multi-stop trip if desired (e.g. group of friends staying at different hotels)
• Models X and Y only
• Confirmation that subsurface stations like central Convention Center (LVCC) station are very unlikely for rest of system because of high costs
  • (LVCVA CEO Steve Hill had said this after the first approval step in October)
• Most surface stations will be smaller than LVCC parking lot stations due to lower demand
• TBC completely and utterly indemnifies the City if any lawsuits arise and will be responsible for doing the litigations themselves on behalf of the City

Safety

• Discussed for 12 minutes of half hour presentation
• Extensive presentation of safety features, highlighting advantages over subway tunnels (especially old ones not built to today's standards), monthly meetings with local Fire and Police, and Department of Homeland Security rating for top Gold Star tier
• Agreement requires that local Fire/Police/Building departments need to give final approval of Loop at their discretion
• Emphasized full compliance with Americans with Disabilities Act
• Dept of Homeland Security periodic reviews required for cybersecurity, terrorism risk, etc.
• Any special life safety equipment the city/county needs will be paid for by TBC
• Nobody brought up any concerns

General Comments from Mayor & Council

• Enthusiasm from downtown community is clear; overwhelming support
• Great technology
• Huge potential
• This will help with parking constraints downtown
• Need to take some risk to take the lead being first on new technology
• Will help reduce drunk driving
• 700 thousand riders in LVCC Loop thus far
  • A few weeks ago I had roughly estimated ~1M riders, pretty close
• Rail cost is exorbitant

Mayor Goodman Questions

• Why is this classified as a monorail when it doesn't have rails?
  • Nevada law says transit with a "fixed guideway" is by definition a monorail; tunnel is the guideway
• How will passenger capacity be met with small vehicles? How will this help reduce surface traffic demand when it's a closed system?
  • TBC can build as many tunnels in parallel as desired
  • Right-of-way under these roads is wide enough for this
  • Construction being underground is crucial because it's not disruptive
  • 20 million visitors to downtown each year = ~3k passengers per hour if concentrated in 18 hrs per day
    • LVCC Loop already does more than this and so more main arterial tunnels probably not needed
• What is plan for electric grid outage aside from having generators?
  • Backup diesel generators and batteries
  • Multiple substations supplying for redundancy
  • Similar plan for other critical infrastructure and large buildings
• How do we sustain driver force and prevent human error?
  • Not addressed, probably forgot the question
  • Later a councilmember mentioned 3% pass rate for driver qualification and extensive training
• What will disability accommodation look like?
  • Not addressed either
• What is the construction plan and timeline?
  • Boring machines starting work probably 2023 for Downtown portion
  • Tunneling is fastest part of the project; probably under 6 months for this 5-mile section
  • Station construction takes longer
• How much does a station cost?
  • Small, simple station is ~$1.5M
  • Opulent or more complicated stations $3-5M
  • Grandiose, underground station more like $20M

Council Questions

• How was $350k determined to be enough money prepared for decommissioning if needed?
  • That's to put seals on surface access points for initial constructions for central artery (most of these are on private property)
  • If any additional access points are added, each time City staff will ensure appropriate funding required
  • Priced similar to manhole access point sealing
• Why is the deal 50 years? That's long, could be risky.
  • Not addressed
• Consensus is that if Vegas doesn't do this now the opportunity will pass...true?
  • Not addressed
• What about unintended ancillary costs for City?
  • Not addressed

Public Comments & Questions

• Unanimous, unequivocal support of project
• Recommendation to add focus on gap between Sahara and Fremont Street
• Getting more visitors downtown without burdening parking crucial
• Faster transit means more time for people to enjoy what businesses have to offer; transit currently a bottleneck and growth making it worse
• Environmental benefit is big
• Traffic congestion downtown is crushing businesses there
• Project is not actually risky

Autonomy

• Not mentioned for some reason; still planning on drivers

Vote

• Unanimous approval including Mayor Goodman this time

 

[AudubonB]

If anyone thinks his or her post was not in response to @ggies07 ’s entirely reprehensible and sure-to-incite replies post, both in chorus and in request to “stop!”, you may contact me. The bathtub drain-whirlpool was quite active.

 

[dhanson865]

maybe that's the mining operations that Elon had alluded to. Tesla could invest in TBC and vertically integrate it along with some refining.

As long as they only vertically integrate it that's fine, If they try to vertically orient it that is a problem. Prufrock is only rated for 30 degrees slope.

 

[Stretch2727]

Exactly this. Some examples from CEOs in the industry-

Devon Energy Q3 2021 Earnings Call
"We will continue to prioritize free cash flow generation over the pursuit of
volume growth. We have no intention of adding incremental barrels into the
market..."


Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub
"We have no need and no intent to invest in production growth. Investing for
the sake of growth is not what investors want."

Pioneer natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield
"I'll tell him [President Biden] we have a pact with our shareholders. it's all
about the shareholders, our shareholders own this company. They want a return
of cash."



The only thing MOAR OIL PRODUCTION gets them going forward is higher costs finding and extracting it, and lower prices while they sell it. They're perfectly happy to keep supply constrained and gouge for as long as possible.

This just shows they know the reality for oil. A smart CEO does not invest in a dying product that will be innovated out of existence. Their job is to maximize future cash flows which means little to no investment.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Happy, Happy..

The 2023 Top selling cars with the highest owner ratings

zutobi.com

Tesla owners are happy owners.

 

[CLK350]

https://www.reddit.com/gallery/vd361u

Spoiler: for the non redditors

The public hearing where these slides were presented is on YouTube - quite upbeat, looks like TBC and the City Council work well together ( the mayor mentioned this project is discussed in many meetings and LV is definitely the leader )

In case someone wondered what a monorail has to do with this project, it's to satisfy a legal requirement. The loop is considered a monorail even though there is no rail - because it is defined as "transportation system that has a fixed guide way .. the tunnel is the fixed guideway."

The public presentation sounds pretty positive, with enthusiastic comments from everyone. Of special interest, the comment of a local company owner who has worked with TBC, and it is unionized, they love working w/ TBC .. " and they pay their bills ,,

Edit: summary of the meeting - that was fast The Boring Company's Vegas Loop Expands To DTLV

Have to say, it's refreshing to see real things being done that have a real impact (the downtown business owners were really happy) - wished our economic so called market driven capitalist system were closer to its roots - amusing to see this in ... Las Vegas where casinos aren't disguised as its overly complicated Wall St pastiche /s

 

[PeterJA]

Haha well, that last 30 mins of trading changed things dramatically from when I posted that. Quite the divergence there in those 30 mins

With respect, no there wasn't.

If you predict disaster every single day, sooner or later you will be right. Similarly, I am confident that @henchman24's confident predictions of a big rally will be absolutely right... just not when he predicted it.

 

[henchman24]

With respect, no there wasn't.

If you predict disaster every single day, sooner or later you will be right. Similarly, I am confident that @henchman24's confident predictions of a big rally will be absolutely right... just not when he predicted it.

I’m about a week or two late already!!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

With respect, no there wasn't.

If you predict disaster every single day, sooner or later you will be right. Similarly, I am confident that @henchman24's confident predictions of a big rally will be absolutely right... just not when he predicted it.

With all due respect yes there was.

Just load up the last 30 mins of the charts of TSLA and the Nasdaq?

And TSLA has shown consistent trading action since May 4th. When that changes for more than a 3-4 day stretch before reverting back to the same underperforming trading action, then I’ll be optimistic

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sorry, I'm booked solid with whining about short term issues and comparing forward P/Es until mid September.

I expect this attitude to be adjusted by tomorrow. Get some rest.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This just shows they know the reality for oil. A smart CEO does not invest in a dying product that will be innovated out of existence. Their job is to maximize future cash flows which means little to no investment.

These guys are all temporarily aligned because it's super easy to do and the payoff is huge. Once the Nov elections are over these whores will turn on each other again.

 

[WADan]

This gave me an idea I'll explore in the engineering thread.

Easy, turn off your house AC, go sit in your Tesla, turn on camp mode, and watch Netflix or read a book.

Edit: be sure to unplug charge cable first!

We bought the Y because it has enough room to sleep in the back when we go camping. Now this is an excellent idea for a few days a year when it’s hot enough on the PNW!

 

[insaneoctane]

So I just got FSD beta and I have to say that I'm not all that impressed. I do think the problems I experienced can be solved - but I believe at least some of these problems have been around a while in some shape or form. I'd really be curious to know why they haven't been fixed yet. My comments after a handful of short test drives in the city.

1. Steering needs to chill out. I had multiple instances where the car decided it needed to change direction NOW. Not smooth or confidence inspiring. Lightly holding the wheel it nearly caused me to lose grip it started spinning so fast once. You definitely get knocked around a bit.
2. Lane choices and choice of position on road are weird at best: Normally you expect the car to pull into the bike lane when making a right turn. In traffic if it doesn't pull into the bike line, you want to take over to avoid impeding traffic. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. When it does, see #1. Had an instance where it chose the left of two turn lanes when an immediate right 100 meters down the road needed to be taken. At other times, it's cut left-corners at too high a speed in a residential neighborhood without lane markings - most people slow down and take the corner wider to avoid possible oncoming traffic.
3. Accelerator - There needs to be some better choices made in terms of how closely to follow speed limits - on residential roads, it should reduce max speed and accelerate more gently. It seems to be a bit too cautious coming to a stop at stop signs, then very slow to resume moving. When it decides to go, though - hang on tight!

The visualization effects that come with FSD beta are phenomenal - this style of graphics definitely needs to be included in standard builds. If nothing else, it's a FSD marketing tool.

Honestly, I feel like just adding some damping on directional changes (steering, acceleration and braking) would go a long ways towards giving passengers more confidence on what the car is doing or going to do. As it is now, it is highly unpredictable and it does not induce trust that the car is going to do the right thing.

So having "tried Tesla FSD" - I am highly skeptical it will be ready in a year given the pace of progress. Most of these issues have been around a while based on experiences with EAP and early FSD beta feedback. Maybe Tesla has opted to focus on other areas of the stack and decided that these are minor issues to be resolved later. Hard to say, really, but I can honestly say that now having finally tried Tesla FSD I believe Chollet's timeframe more than Elon's...

I agree with many of your observations. I thought similar thoughts, but then wondered if Tesla has chosen to not prioritize smoothness for turns, acceleration, deceleration, etc. until it drives correctly. Get the fundamental actions first, then they can iterate/tweak like crazy to minimize lateral acceleration or jerky steering wheel motions, etc. Not saying they're not doing some of this, but I'm thinking it's a lower priority at this stage of beta?

 

[wipster]

Once this is real in 2023, every municipality is going to want it

I can think of several, but Chicago really sticks out, especially going to O'Hare... 5 lanes and 90 miles an hour to get there can be a bitch, not to mention parking once you get there.

 

[BornToFly]

Just refreshed my Yahoo Finance feed to check on Futures (which are green at the moment). Half the headlines are FUD about how Tesla has the most crashes. We'll see if they manage to trick people into selling tomorrow.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can think of several, but Chicago really sticks out, especially going to O'Hare... 5 lanes and 90 miles an hour to get there can be a bitch, not to mention parking once you get there.

Already tried, and subsequently rejected by Chicago city gov't: (4 yrs ago)

Elon Musk - Boring Company Chicago O'Hare Announcement (June 14, 2018)

 

[wipster]

Already tried, and subsequently rejected by Chicago city gov't: (4 yrs ago)

Elon Musk - Boring Company Chicago O'Hare Announcement (June 14, 2018)

Damn... maybe after they do some gambling in Vegas they'll change their minds!

 

[ZeApelido]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537196873001361409

 

[Gigapress]

Consumer Reports had the Mustang Mach-E as the only electric vehicle in their 10 Top Picks for the 2022 Auto Issue published in April. 260 vehicle models were evaluated in total.

In the $45k+ BEV category, Mach-E had their top score, beating all Tesla models, ID.4, Polestar 2, Taycan, Étron, and I-Pace.

Mach-E received the highest ratings for “Predicted Reliability” of the bunch, while Y, S & X and the E-Tron received the lowest possible reliability score. Also apparently Teslas have extremely poor “Usability”— a category for which I could find no definition in the entire magazine, so I’ll just trust the expert opinion of Consumer Reports. Mach-E had top marks for predicted reliability for all drivetrain-related features.

Melting high-voltage battery contactors, inadequate windshield and roof glass adhesive bonding, loose subframe bolts, powertrain control module software bugs causing unintended acceleration/deceleration/loss of drivetrain power, and improper rear seatbelt attachments are minor problems, so it makes sense that Consumer Reports gave the Mach-E top marks in all reliability subcategories except climate control and in-car electronics.

Relying solely on the voluntary responses to CR’s Annual Auto Survey is an excellent method for objectively and accurately measuring vehicle reliability. Surveys are the gold standard in science so I commend their choice as well as their decision to leave out any caveats regarding potential sampling bias or response bias influencing the results, because everyone already knows that so saying it would be redundant. The colors in the results tables are very pretty, which is the best indication that the data was compiled by professionals.

CR also rightfully praised the driver monitoring system for Mach-E GT’s Blue Cruise while criticizing Tesla Autopilot for enabling drivers to deliberately break the law by covering the camera, cheating the wheel touch sensor and not paying attention to the road. Consumer Reports provided no evaluation of the capabilities and performance of the various automated driving assistance systems, because that’s obviously not important; forcing adults to make basic responsible decisions is really all that matters. It’s too bad cars today still allow drivers to run red lights, exceed the speed limit, and neglect to use turn signals.

I wonder if their 2023 rankings will differ. Maybe it will be the Taycan’s time to shine.