Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[growler23]

I remember Elon complaining that in Europe, the opposite is true. In Europe, you first have to prove it is safe. It's "not allowed" by default.

I would hope that Tesla takes this as an opportunity to move to their 40/48V wiring architecture that they mentioned years ago (most recently I could find it mentioned was by Elon ~1 year ago with his sit-down with Sandy Munroe at SpaceX Boca Chica).

Something like this would greatly reduce the "miles" of wire in a car by something like 20X. The downside is that it would require a complete revamp of the electrical system and all related components.

Has this been explained before (if so, please point me to the explanation)? I understand how higher voltage reduces current and therefore resistive losses, but I don't understand how it could reduce the needed wire length for a car. Massive wire reduction = significant materials reduction and less complexity, one would think, so I would like to understand this better.

 

[bkp_duke]

Has this been explained before (if so, please point me to the explanation)? I understand how higher voltage reduces current and therefore resistive losses, but I don't understand how it could reduce the needed wire length for a car. Massive wire reduction = significant materials reduction and less complexity, one would think, so I would like to understand this better.

Basically, current harnesses run at 12V and use MANY wires in them. You can cut that down drastically by moving communication over 1-2 wires, but at higher voltages. But it requires a new bus system, as the old simply won't work.

Tesla talked about it back in 2019, there is an article here:

Tesla reveals revolutionary new wiring architecture to help robots build upcoming cars like Model Y

Tesla has revealed its revolutionary new wiring architecture that enables more robot automation in the manufacturing process and uses fewer...

electrek.co

It would cut down on weight, complexity, etc. But it would be a substantial change, and would require module vendors (airbag, sensors, etc.) to all be on board. Old modules would simply not work.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Today is basically the same beta as yesterday. The past week the beta is closer to 1 (1.23). Tesla fell to 620 on May 24th when the Nasdaq was 3% higher at its low that day. Since last part of May, Tesla has been consistently outperforming its normal beta during this drop. Days like today hurt, but Tesla has held stronger in this pullback than the previous ones and by a good margin.

Now I agree 600 is likely coming at some point, maybe even 560-580... but that will being coming when the Nasdaq goes for the next leg down (I think a 10k test is coming).

Sorry but I look at more than just today's trading, yesterday's trading, or even last weeks. We still have that huge down day a week and a half ago to make up for. It's the cumulative effect. TSLA needs many, many days of outperformance to make up just for that one huge down day.

And the main point I'm making is that days like today are the one's that really hurt TSLA's trading. Even if TSLA only trades slightly worse against it's beta today, it's a net negative because today is a bigger macro down day than yesterday was a macro up day. And the overwhelming trend in today's trading action is TSLA getting weaker and weaker as the day goes. I wouldn't be surprised if today's a 3X down day which would be crushing for TSLA's momentum in the short term. Practically guarantees 500's incoming.

 

[OrthoSurg]

U.S. man sues Elon Musk, SpaceX and Tesla for $258 billion on behalf of investors allegedly defrauded by Dogecoin pyramid scheme | Fortune

Keith Johnson is seeking to represent a class of people who have lost money trading in Dogecoin since April 2019 and is asking for $86 billion in damages, plus triple damages of $172 billion.

fortune.com

Now I totally get why Elon wants to create a permanent legal department in-house.

This world is now full of crazy unreasonable people.

 

[Nocturnal]

Transparent (and unoriginal) Care Bears are usually a great sign.

 

[Dutchie]

The $2,000 - $2,500 “market adjustment” is not that bad considering what dealers are asking for their EV’s.

 

[jerry33]

Assuming prices even come down in the first place, what would happen is that those customers will either:

1. Deal with it and take delivery
2. Cancel their order and get back in line to wait for another 12 months to get the new lower price

Interest costs are a small portion of the overall purchase cost, by the way, especially since people who can afford a $50k+ car tend to have good credit ratings.

And tend to pay as much in cash as is possible because stocks are unreliable in the short term.

 

[Skipdd]

Doesn't this describe Tesla circa 2012-2019?

Funny I don’t recall Tesla trolling Tesla then.. I just remember falling in love with the first roadster design and then the Model S. And then changing my mind from buying a Porsche once the last tuition payment was made to getting a Model S. The MachE would not caused this reaction.. so not the same at all.

 

[bkp_duke]

U.S. man sues Elon Musk, SpaceX and Tesla for $258 billion on behalf of investors allegedly defrauded by Dogecoin pyramid scheme | Fortune

Keith Johnson is seeking to represent a class of people who have lost money trading in Dogecoin since April 2019 and is asking for $86 billion in damages, plus triple damages of $172 billion.

fortune.com

Now I totally get why Elon wants to create a permanent legal department in-house.

This world is now full of crazy unreasonable people.

Would be very surprised if a judge didn't just toss that lawsuit. Will never go to trial, will never be settled.

 

[Krugerrand]

Translation of the letter:

“Please keep paying me $500k/ year, but STFU on Twitter already!”

If people want to make a genuine statement here talking with their feet is the best and likely only way they will make any real statement. But these people are sacrificing nothing to make this “bold” statement.

Very few people who disagree with their company executive‘s politics are willing to actually make sacrifices to back that disagreement up.

I hear Blue Origin and their entirely safe on Twitter CEO is looking for rocket scientists.

What I want to know is;

1) If HR isn’t doing its job then why aren’t all you letter writers supporting your colleagues in the flesh? Like stand with your colleague and face the harasser. Or all march into HR together and demand action be taken?

2) If Twitter is a distraction to you, umm…don’t go there, don’t follow his tweets, heck, delete your account, then you don’t have to be distracted or embarrassed. The whole idea of being embarrassed because of someone else’s behavior is so begging for you to be told to mind your own business.

FYI, what you just did is an a$$hole move. Welcome to the club.

This is passive aggressive behavior disguised as ‘we just want what’s in the best interest of humanity’. It’s like nobody knows how to be upfront and straight forward and communicate constructively. We have to write an anonymous group letter and leak it to the media. It’s a form of bullying.

Let’s be clear, I don’t care what it is or what you do, just don’t pretend it’s something other than it is or you’re somehow above others by your passive aggressive actions.

 

[bkp_duke]

What I want to know is;

1) If HR isn’t doing its job then why aren’t all you letter writers supporting your colleagues in the flesh? Like stand with your colleague and face the harasser. Or all march into HR together and demand action be taken?

2) If Twitter is a distraction to you, umm…don’t go there, don’t follow his tweets, heck, delete your account, then you don’t have to be distracted or embarrassed. The whole idea of being embarrassed because of someone else’s behavior is so begging for you to be told to mind your own business.

FYI, what you just did is an a$$hole move. Welcome to the club.

This is passive aggressive behavior disguised as ‘we just want what’s in the best interest of humanity’. It’s like nobody knows how to be upfront and straight forward and communicate constructively. We have to write an anonymous group letter and leak it to the media. It’s a form of bullying.

Let’s be clear, I don’t care what it is or what you do, just don’t pretend it’s something other than it is or you’re somehow above others by your passive aggressive actions.

This won't end well for those complaining. Shotwell is a staunch Musk supporter. She'll take the letter, and then basically tell them all to "suck it up buttercup, you're not here to criticize the man that is changing humanity, and in the process giving you all good-paying jobs".

EDIT - I just fired a couple passive aggressive types in our company. They, literally, came crying and asking "what did we do?". I said: "Simple, you are a disruptive influence to the company. We are not here to cater to your whims. This is a business with work to get done, and we can do it better off without you."

 

[ZachF]

S&P500 is now below it’s pre COVID peak adjusted for inflation

 

[StealthP3D]

Hopefully these market conditions don’t continue (my personal spending power and my retirement are declining in lockstep… seriously cannot afford this). But Tesla’s model is setting them up for maximum returns and super loyal customers coming out of this mess.

You will be happy to know that current market conditions are unsustainable. LOL!

/S

I always plan to maintain at least two years cash reserve, so I never have to sell stock during market downturns. Ideally I can be buying when the price is low. Today I bought a couple hundred more at $635 and will buy more if the price goes significantly lower. A company growing this quickly is a bargain at these levels and will make all shareholders both pleased and proud when the market understands that the competition is not coming anytime soon (unless speaking of competition for legacy ICE vehicles).

Your retirement is not actually declining and we can say this because your retirement is not valued on fear and misinformation but on what the conditions will be when you actually need to liquidate portions of your retirement.

 

[Ogre]

FYI, what you just did is an a$$hole move. Welcome to the club.

This is passive aggressive behavior disguised as ‘we just want what’s in the best interest of humanity’. It’s like nobody knows how to be upfront and straight forward and communicate constructively. We have to write an anonymous group letter and leak it to the media. It’s a form of bullying.

That’s fair.

SpaceX and Tesla are run on the backs of these engineers. They are choosing to keep working at SpaceX (for obvious reasons) even though they are likely highly employable in their respective fields.

Writing letters accomplishes absolutely nothing. It gives the haters something to write about in their hate-media. Musk doesn’t care about letters from what is very likely a minority of employees. Unless the engineers start leaving the company and making noise about why they are leaving the company, there will be no changes.

But my bigger point isn’t that these people should STFU, it’s that their letter is pointless if they won’t back it with actions.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I mean I agree here, but with a slight caveat.

Fossil fuel companies do no want to invest in new capacity because they know demand has peaked. Investing in increasing capacity right now is not the profit maximizing move.

Would you invest $millions in expanding capacity knowing that in 5 years demand will be lower? EVs are part of this story. It’s just an indirect/ knock on effect.

If they were smart, they would have taken the route of increasing production just enough to keep oil/gas prices from spiraling out of control, which it has now. It's all about controlling the escalation of oil prices, even if that means making some new investments. If they would have made the necessary investments and/or just increased production enough(especially US oil producers but also OPEC) they likely could have kept oil prices right on the edge of a balance of making very good profits while not creating permanent demand destruction and drive consumers to EV's in the masses.

So no they would be enjoying as high of profits as they are getting right now from oil.......but they would have gotten slightly lower profits for a longer time if they had made the efforts to increase production.

It all comes down to the math.

If they can make 150% of their usual profits by oil prices being where they are right now but that it permanently craters demand and creates the inflection point for EV's in a 3-4 year timeframe.......that's much worse than them making 125% of their usual profits but being able to extend out the inflection point for EV's and thus oil demand till probably 2030.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hurling insults is not a good look

Name a commodity, lets work through this

Is it an insult if it’s true? I think not. It’s just truth then. Either wear it proudly or change it if you don’t like it.

But here’s the thing. I don’t believe you want to work through this. By your own admission, you’re just here to be a contrarian. Not because there’s any meaningfulness in that, but rather just so you can rile people up and be the center of attention.

 

[henchman24]

Sorry but I look at more than just today's trading, yesterday's trading, or even last weeks. We still have that huge down day a week and a half ago to make up for. It's the cumulative effect. TSLA needs many, many days of outperformance to make up just for that one huge down day.

And the main point I'm making is that days like today are the one's that really hurt TSLA's trading. Even if TSLA only trades slightly worse against it's beta today, it's a net negative because today is a bigger macro down day than yesterday was a macro up day. And the overwhelming trend in today's trading action is TSLA getting weaker and weaker as the day goes. I wouldn't be surprised if today's a 3X down day which would be crushing for TSLA's momentum in the short term. Practically guarantees 500's incoming.

You should zoom out more and see… Tesla for a long time now has out performed the Nasdaq. The self inflicted wounds of Twitter are the main reason for this under performance since early April. Elon selling a ton of shares and then shorts taking advantage of it have hurt the past two months, but as that stabilizes, we are reverting back to overperformance. You can always pick and choose days where it is good or bad compared… but it certainly has done better on this downturn than the previous downturn. The previous downturn was real bad and had compounding factors. Prior to both of these, there was a massive overperformance in mid March and April. It is crystal clear at this point.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Price increase is the topic of the day in EV land, wondering what kind of component and materials cost increases in ICE world affect the pricing of ICE powered vehicles.

All I can think of is that there are signs all over town showing off how much the materials used to run these ICE things costs.

 

[bkp_duke]

Kind of.

SpaceX and Tesla are run on the backs of these engineers. If this bothers them, they have huge opportunities in their respective fields.

Writing letters accomplishes absolutely nothing. It gives the haters something to write about in their hate-media. Musk doesn’t care about letters from what is very likely a minority of employees. Unless the engineers start leaving the company and making noise about why they are leaving the company, there will be no changes.

But my bigger point isn’t that these people should STFU, it’s that their letter is pointless if they won’t back it with actions.

Agreed. Those engineers can easily be replaced if they aren't happy. Wasn't the acceptance rate something like 2-3% at Tesla last year for job applications?

Even if they back it by leaving, who cares? Get rid of the care bears and replace them with equally-qualified adults.

My point: it's not their damn company. They KNOW they work for an eccentric. It's part of the expectation for working for Tesla and SpaceX.

Side-note: the Verge is one of the worst anti-Musk / Tesla publications we have seen. I would not be surprised if this was literally like 10 employees or less and they got wind of it and decided to blow it out of proportion.

 

[MABMAB]

Market bottom not in, not enough folks hurting here. No puking, no panic.