Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AimStellar]

Tesla is sending untrained employees to work on cars as service becomes problematic

Tesla is sending some of its employees who are not in service and are untrained to work on cars into...

electrek.co

Electrek claiming that “Musk has canceled sales and delivery targets for the quarter and pulled employees from those teams to work on service.”

 

[bkp_duke]

Ah, that article was helpful. Thank you!
It looks to me like the savings are from switching from a point-to-point to a hub-and-spur type system, where some module that has say 5 components in it can just have one pair of conductors (or one connector) to join to a main bus, and have premade (short) internal connections to all the 5 subcomponents... instead of all 5 components needing their own wire pairs running all the way back to some central point in the car. That would save a ton of wiring. Similar in concept to some of the industrial communication buses I work on in my day job. Wiring in processing plants is definitely a major expense as well.
I didn't see mention of voltage in the article; maybe once you are going full on new architecture / have lost compatibility with all those old modules, you go ahead and change to a more efficient / useful voltage - would make sense to me anyhow.

Elon mentioned the voltage when discussing with Sandy Munroe on one of his youtube videos. It was either 40 or 48V.

 

[betstarship]

Here's a (maybe) crackpot theory of mine:

Maybe - we're in the middle of a GIGANTIC S-curve or exponential as we start expanding off planet (and to Mars)...and people/society/markets are having a difficult time dealing with the ramp up in technological progress that's needed, in such a short timespan, to make that happen. As an example, think of social media's effects on the planet. Would Obama and Trump have won their respective presidencies without social media? These apps/tech are causing and washing out a lot of problems we have just never dealt with for the entirety of our civilization ... all based on dialogue. Sure, it's not like might be doing a great job of it and might be making a mess too, but I'm hopeful it'll get resolved.

S&P 500 is now at about the same level it was on 12/31/2020; only a year and a half ago after a 10-year bull-run (5x'd the index during that time period) that ended at the beginning of the pandemic.

If you invested in the beginning of the pandemic (pre-drop) in the S&P, you'd still be up ~32% even after this dramatic drop down in the stock market.

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To go further, as I've been watching the news lately as well as reading this S&P 500 chart...it reminds me of this two-part article by WaitButWhy...

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 1 - Wait But Why

Part 1 of 2: "The Road to Superintelligence". Artificial Intelligence — the topic everyone in the world should be talking about.

waitbutwhy.com

...namely the first three charts in Part 1 and there on. it just seems like people and the economy are coming to grips with technological progress & its effects on and feedback from the climate and society (much like the 1960's)...in order to finally go off planet. It feels like we're in a tea kettle on Earth (socially and environmentally) and need to go off planet is going to reduce that boiling point to just warm/sustainable (due to infinite levels of available expansion off planet). It's crazy what the continued growth is going to bring about, if it does happen.

Thankfully - it looks like tech progress is going to work out with many smart, capable, and influential people collaborating to make it happen...if we don't screw it up! The Starlink and OneWeb peace talks as well as some of the decisions for the US Govt to make smart decisions in regards to these areas of interest makes me hopeful.

Starlink and OneWeb reach spectrum coordination plan

Starlink and OneWeb reach spectrum coordination plan

spacenews.com

Elon Musk says SpaceX will have Starship 'ready to fly' in July, amid FAA work

SpaceX will have a Starship prototype rocket "ready to fly" by July, Elon Musk says, for a crucial milestone that is pending a regulatory license.

www.cnbc.com

So, it seems, Musk may be right: everything he does is philanthropy. Tesla...for the Earth and risk mitigation against technological progress. SpaceX for value adding to the entire planet to expand humans to the stars...all to beat this race condition we find ourselves in:

If my opinion counts for anything, I think we're all personally in a race condition:

human progress vs. fighting against the limits of our environment

Context: Since the start of the industrial revolution, we've seen a remarkable amount of progress in human productivity and wellness. People are living much longer, population is growing quite a bit (until recently...), wealth is more freely available and not just available for a very small percentage of the population. All since the start of the industrial revolution.

https://www.theactuary.com/general-features/2012/08/2012/08/20/planet-under-pressure

World population, comparison of different historical sources

An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.

ourworldindata.org

Human history, in one chart

Almost all the gains in human well-being in history happened since the Industrial Revolution.

www.vox.com

A meaningful life is becoming more and more easily reachable for any newborn. Unfortunately, this progress is coming up against the limits of the environment, Earth, our species is in. Here's a timeline of tracking climate change. I think Elon Musk knows and read into this and is pushing humanity than letting it falter and fall apart. Maybe many people know this. Hence, BUILD. Keep on building. Get off the planet; meanwhile, make it SUSTAINABLE.

I was all-in on Tesla as a result. I've grown to be all-in on Musk too. He's our best applied engineer.

 

[Snerruc]

I’ve been around recessions since-oh 1958 or so. This thread had been deja vie all over again for a few months. Going back even further, a wise man named Bernard Baruck had two rules for investors: don’t read the Wall Street Journal every day, and an asset is worth what you can sell it for on the day you absolutely have to sell it. To this I would add another rule from a pretty good investor: if you can’t stand volatility, don’t buy Tesla. Why? Because all this puts stress on the investor-or speculator. I am not as smart as you all, but it I have been able to live in retirement for 35 years. Tesla is at this point certainly a once in a lifetime investment, however, I’ve seen dozens of them over the years and a handful of them were real. This is one reason for the high volatility we see. Yes, we see that Tesla is the real thing, but a lot of people don’t see that. I agree with the posters that are counseling patience and not putting all your eggs in one basket, especially if considering retirement. Oh, and remember your mental as well as physical acuity will deteriorate as you age. You may need to protect your resources from yourself. My wife didn’t anticipate dementia. Fortunately, we had devices in place to protect us from ourselves.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla is sending untrained employees to work on cars as service becomes problematic

Tesla is sending some of its employees who are not in service and are untrained to work on cars into...

electrek.co

Electrek claiming that “Musk has canceled sales and delivery targets for the quarter and pulled employees from those teams to work on service.”

I find it really hard to believe Tesla would send untrained people to fix cars. I could believe they were sent to help with paperwork or other administrative tasks at service centers.

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla is sending untrained employees to work on cars as service becomes problematic

Tesla is sending some of its employees who are not in service and are untrained to work on cars into...

electrek.co

Electrek claiming that “Musk has canceled sales and delivery targets for the quarter and pulled employees from those teams to work on service.”

Same service teams also prep deliveries. Which is basically just auto wash, possibly buff some paint, etc. Not high-skill.

I could totally see Elon pulling in people to do this at the end of a quarter if it was to meet delivery goals. Back in 2018 he put managers on the Model 3 line to help finish build cars to meet targets. Basically "no one is too good to work the line".

 

[Chunky Jr.]

MSFT, AAPL, and GOOG are also really close to their 52 week lows. So it isn't just TSLA that is getting beat up. I'd feel a lot worse if other big names were doing significantly better, but they're not.

 

[verystandard]

I find it really hard to believe Tesla would send untrained people to fix cars. I could believe they were sent to help with paperwork or other administrative tasks at service centers.

Good old Fred never disappoints me when comes to bashing Tesla

 

[Ratanpara]

Price increase is the topic of the day in EV land, wondering what kind of component and materials cost increases in ICE world affect the pricing of ICE powered vehicles.

 

[Thekiwi]

We are in the 9th longest bear market post WW2

We are nowhere near the average post WW2 recession length (almost 12 months). Longest recession was 2.5 years.

 

[Zero CO2]

Same service teams also prep deliveries. Which is basically just auto wash, possibly buff some paint, etc. Not high-skill.

I could totally see Elon pulling in people to do this at the end of a quarter if it was to meet delivery goals. Back in 2018 he put managers on the Model 3 line to help finish build cars to meet targets. Basically "no one is too good to work the line".

another reason to avoid unions

 

[Gigapress]

Chanos is a moron that continues to value Tesla solely on their automotive value, not on their value as a tech or energy company.

I see what you’re saying about Jim Chanos but I think TSLA is deep value on automotive hardware + insurance + service + charging alone. DEEP value.

Even at $20k lifecycle profit per car, at 10M per year that’s $200B annual gross profit. Current market cap is only $750B. Less than 4x P/E ratio at that scale, and likely still growing at that point. We are around 4-6 years away from this.

Chanos’ problem is that he doesn’t see our gross margins being sustainable nor does he believe the volume growth will happen like that.

 

[Singuy]

I find it really hard to believe Tesla would send untrained people to fix cars. I could believe they were sent to help with paperwork or other administrative tasks at service centers.

This is the dumbest headline I have ever seen.

No one is stupid enough to blindly fix the car. They will ask how or will be guided..this is called on the job training...usually happens with every employee hired ever in the history of employment.

 

[StealthP3D]

I find it really hard to believe Tesla would send untrained people to fix cars. I could believe they were sent to help with paperwork or other administrative tasks at service centers.

True. And if they were to actually work on the car, they would be trained just like any new junior hire with no experience. There is no point to this article other than to take a positive (Tesla being flexible with their resources) and trying to turn it into a hit piece. Most investors are too smart for this kind of transparent hit job. The little boy has cried wolf too many times for it to be credible.

 

[wipster]

Whoever it was that called out a 10% drop today nailed it. Mostly due to the market, but the FUD also contributed mightily.

What goes down must come up however. Hopefully the production and delivery figures to be reported in a couple weeks will help.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Whoever it was that called out a 10% drop today nailed it. Mostly due to the market, but the FUD also contributed mightally.

What goes down must come up however. Hopefully the production and delivery figures to be reported in a couple weeks will help.

I would take a bow for my spot on prediction but I'm too busy being Grumpy Cat over here to bother

 

[vikings123]

This is the dumbest headline I have ever seen.

No one is stupid enough to blindly fix the car. They will ask how or will be guided..this is called on the job training...usually happens with every employee hired ever in the history of employment.

Nothing more dumber than this one below.

 

[snellenr]

what do you give them, your phone? lol

I was replying to @ggr 's comment - until this gets fixed or patched (e.g., adding a requirement for a PIN or app intervention to add a key card), don't give them your car if you're concerned about this.

 

[EVDRVN]

Good old Fred never disappoints me when comes to bashing Tesla

They have already reviewed all the cheap free ebikes and have no more click bait for this week.

 

[30seconds]

We are nowhere near the average post WW2 recession length (almost 12 months). Longest recession was 2.5 years.

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bear market != recession