Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

If There is meter for Risk tolerance, Elon would win hands down, He seems to stay totally unaffected by media criticism, stock price, law suits etc.

There was a period where all the shorts that pushed down the value of the company really affected him. When he reinvested 15M in Tesla and 15M in SpaceX during the subprime crisis he you see them in interviews how much pain he endured when he compared starting a company to chewing glass looking into the abyss. The amount of punishment he had to endure to make is company thrives is comparable to some religious martyres. Ni wonder I see so many cult-like comments on Twitter from people asking him to solve every single world problem. At some point people are blaming Musk for world hunger because he chose not to solve the problem with his money and people like to condemn some evil billionaire to take responsibilities for the problems in this world.

Crossing fingers today was a bear trap and the double bottom forming setting us up for a nice summer bull rally in a bear market. Not too many near double digits red day consecutively to preserve my faint hearth please.

 

[GOVA]

These are legitimate arguments against it and good reason for Cadillac to continue stepping up their game and for Tesla to continue pushing and not become complacent

What we really need to be asking here is why are material/commodity prices decreasing when demand is apparently so high?

It could be manufacturing capacity throttling that is reducing material prices, like from China's COVID measures trickling through the supply chain. Or it could be reduced manufacturing across Europe in response to high natural gas prices.

Your “arguments” strangely resemble those of GLJ “research”. Time to reveal yourself.

bear market != recession

For those who have not done C/C++ the != stands for not equal to.

 

[FireMedic]

Gali dropped a new video today. You know where to find it if you’re interested.
I know he can come off as a YouTube bro/entertainer, but he has a strong background in finance and economics and I believe he has good instincts.

Anyway, he shared this chart in the video and I really felt like it was pertinent at the moment as Tesla has been (in my opinion) dragged down with market disillusionment. Gives me solace that there is a name for this. Don’t panic.

 

[AudubonB]

A counterpoint.

Elon's goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, and, go to Mars. To do this it will be helpful to have not only the thinkers, the shakers and movers, and others who work at being in-the-know, but, he will also want/need the rest of the people who routinely swim in the cesspool to be influenced in one way or another toward the advantages for them to want to go electric, or, go to Mars. (yes, there will be some of them who make it to Mars)

Twitter, by your description, is very possibly the best tool for reaching a significant segment of society who participate in all aspects of commerce, even though deep, rational, logical thought may not be their first choice for learning about the world around them. They can easily be reached in the cesspool. I'm talking about the folks who routinely fall for the tricks and gimmicks that the advertisers have trained them to respond to. These people buy cars, buy homes, pay electric bills, experience power outages. They are potential customers.

We need these people to learn about Tesla, or any other company that will help them transition, in the same way that they figure out the world around them if we want to get them on board.

Anyone who has ever worked a job providing customer support for a technical product will understand. The experience can leave you feeling that most of the world has an IQ around room temperature. ("If you know what I mean, and I think that you do"-Joe Bob Briggs)

This, and only this, is what makes Twitter important to the mission.

In Elon I trust. He's been right about so many things others have argued against.

I'm content to just wait and see how this goes. He's got street cred in my book.

YMMV

The painfully wretched, patently false kind of argument you’re using is in taking the result you want and then looking for some way to achieve that result. That is what the anti-scientific mob revels in.
No. The world, so to speak, knows who Elon Musk is. Were he to be the regular or even on-occasion author of a blog, then all whom you describe would see it, either instantly or through the 2nd- or even 3rd-step removed of the internet.
The vapidity of your final four one-line paragraphs are equally non-, or anti-persuasive.

 

[2daMoon]

The painfully wretched, patently false kind of argument you’re using is in taking the result you want and then looking for some way to achieve that result. That is what the anti-scientific mob rebels in.
No. The world, so to speak, knows who Elon Musk is. Were he to be the regular or even on-occasion author of a blog, then all whom you describe would see it, either instantly or through the 2nd- or even 3rd-step removed of the internet.
The vapidity of your final four one-line paragraphs are equally non-, or anti-persuasive.

I'll agree to disagree.

To me this sounds like how many folks will try to simplify a vast and complex system affected by more variables than can be easily accounted for into what they would like to believe explains things.

This "the world" you refer to is a concept only. "The world" is incapable of "knowing" anything. Instead, a person is capable of that trick. There are billions of those, and there is not a chance that any significant number of them will meet the parameters you have provided.

i.e. "then all whom you describe would see it, either instantly or through the 2nd- or even 3rd-step removed of the internet"

Which is, of course, impossible. However...

“If you've done 6 impossible things this morning, why not round it off with breakfast at Milliways, the Restaurant at the End of the Universe?”​

 

[phantasms]

Hey all. I have a bit of a predicament and would very much appreciate the Borg hive mind feedback.

In short: When Tesla launched past $1,000 a share I sold 50 shares and put a deposit down on the Roadster. Now, I'm contemplating canceling the deposit so I can reinvest that $50k for, who knows, maybe 100 shares at some point.

In long: I've been trading and then investing in Tesla since 2018. I had 40 shares, sold prior to the C19 dip, bought back 80 near the low, added 20, split happened and boom I'm at 500 shares. Since then I've sold 200 shares at an average of $1000 or so. Roadster deposit, home/Tesla upgrades, put back initial capital, and a little deworsification into other stocks..very small amount and that $200k is locked up/used. I'm giving up the details only because I think it matters in finding the right decision. My brokerage account is out of cash and I'm not willing to sell CCs at these levels. I'm seriously considering getting the $50k Roadster deposit back but I'm not sure if that's a good idea as there are several unknowns. The main reason I put the deposit down was in hopes of locking in the "$200k base price" cost of the car. About a month after I put the deposit down they removed that wording from the order page which made me feel better and more certain about my decision. The reality is 1, Who knows if they will honor that base price as they don't have to contractually. However I can't fathom they'll do wrong by people who dropped $50k for many years now. 2. If they do the likely thing and raise the price, what will it be, $250k? $300k? 3, Who knows when this car will even come out. Cybertruck is probably a year away still so, what, another two years for the Roadster maybe? At this point it's a non-zero that Elon simply cancels it on a whim one day because "the future is FSD". Other things to consider are I'm not sure how long it takes to get the $50k back. Someone in another thread said it took about a month. What if I miss the ~bottom and things turn around and I never really put the cash to work. Alternatively, it's very unlikely but what if I purchase in the $500s and the thing hits $300s and trades there for many years. I don't think that's going to happen but, honestly, it's not impossible. Part of me is like just sit back and relax, having 400 shares instead of 300 shares isn't a game changer, you're way ahead of the game on profits and you've got a deposit on essentially the only material thing you covet. Do nothing and enjoy the days. The other part of me is thinking those $50k worth of shares could be worth buying the whole Roadster when it comes out. Also, it's possible I might not go for it anyway if the stock is in the tank as my intention was to pay for it writing covered calls or selling a share here and there.

Additional info, my intention would be to sell ~$500 puts with the $50k and sell closer to ATM when and if it really gets down there. Also, while I don't make a ton of income personally, my family is extraordinarily comfortable financially. My kid will never want for anything so TSLA isn't really about building generational wealth of anything like that.

You're all smarter than me, what are your thoughts? I spoke with my wife about this tonight and she too remained undecided.

 

[PeterJA]

Elon's goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, and, go to Mars....

I don't think so. When I consider all his projects (including OpenAI, Neuralink, Boring, Twitter), I think his goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable civilization. He's very concerned about Unfriendly AI, declining birthrates, and other threats to civilization.

...This, and only this [access to customers], is what makes Twitter important to the mission....

Again disagree. Elon said he thinks civilization needs a free-speech platform that is widely trusted to be unbiased, to promote communication between human factions rather than tell them only what algorithms think they want to hear. I take him at his word.

I'm content to just wait and see how this goes. He's got street cred in my book.

I'm with you there.

 

[2daMoon]

Hey all. I have a bit of a predicament and would very much appreciate the Borg hive mind feedback.

In short: When Tesla launched past $1,000 a share I sold 50 shares and put a deposit down on the Roadster. Now, I'm contemplating canceling the deposit so I can reinvest that $50k for, who knows, maybe 100 shares at some point.

In long: I've been trading and then investing in Tesla since 2018. I had 40 shares, sold prior to the C19 dip, bought back 80 near the low, added 20, split happened and boom I'm at 500 shares. Since then I've sold 200 shares at an average of $1000 or so. Roadster deposit, home/Tesla upgrades, put back initial capital, and a little deworsification into other stocks..very small amount and that $200k is locked up/used. I'm giving up the details only because I think it matters in finding the right decision. My brokerage account is out of cash and I'm not willing to sell CCs at these levels. I'm seriously considering getting the $50k Roadster deposit back but I'm not sure if that's a good idea as there are several unknowns. The main reason I put the deposit down was in hopes of locking in the "$200k base price" cost of the car. About a month after I put the deposit down they removed that wording from the order page which made me feel better and more certain about my decision. The reality is 1, Who knows if they will honor that base price as they don't have to contractually. However I can't fathom they'll do wrong by people who dropped $50k for many years now. 2. If they do the likely thing and raise the price, what will it be, $250k? $300k? 3, Who knows when this car will even come out. Cybertruck is probably a year away still so, what, another two years for the Roadster maybe? At this point it's a non-zero that Elon simply cancels it on a whim one day because "the future is FSD". Other things to consider are I'm not sure how long it takes to get the $50k back. Someone in another thread said it took about a month. What if I miss the ~bottom and things turn around and I never really put the cash to work. Alternatively, it's very unlikely but what if I purchase in the $500s and the thing hits $300s and trades there for many years. I don't think that's going to happen but, honestly, it's not impossible. Part of me is like just sit back and relax, having 400 shares instead of 300 shares isn't a game changer, you're way ahead of the game on profits and you've got a deposit on essentially the only material thing you covet. Do nothing and enjoy the days. The other part of me is thinking those $50k worth of shares could be worth buying the whole Roadster when it comes out. Also, it's possible I might not go for it anyway if the stock is in the tank as my intention was to pay for it writing covered calls or selling a share here and there.

Additional info, my intention would be to sell ~$500 puts with the $50k and sell closer to ATM when and if it really gets down there. Also, while I don't make a ton of income personally, my family is extraordinarily comfortable financially. My kid will never want for anything so TSLA isn't really about building generational wealth of anything like that.

You're all smarter than me, what are your thoughts? I spoke with my wife about this tonight and she too remained undecided.

Pick a handful of your favorite analysts' prognostications for the SP out to the time you believe is a reasonable expectation for your Roadster to be delivered.

Working with that, calculate how much the chairs purchased at the current close would be priced. Then see how close your deposit would come to paying for the whole Roadster.

Off the cuff, I would think the SP may at least double or triple over that time period. Unless the Roadster builds/deliveries continue to be pushed out. Then, it could be more. Your plan sounds like it would at least make up the difference between the promised price and whatever it might rise to.

 

[2daMoon]

I don't think so. When I consider all his projects (including OpenAI, Neuralink, Boring, Twitter), I think his goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable civilization. He's very concerned about Unfriendly AI, declining birthrates, and other threats to civilization.



Again disagree. Elon said he thinks civilization needs a free-speech platform that is widely trusted to be unbiased, to promote communication between human factions rather than tell them only what algorithms think they want to hear. I take him at his word.



I'm with you there.

I'm in full agreement. I was simply applying the K.I.S.S. principle while writing it.

Combine my quoted statements with yours and you still have exactly the meaning I was hoping to convey. We could likely add to the list.

Elon is thinking big, trying to save humanity from itself by doing as much as he can in a lifetime. Very likely inclusive of extending lifetime with genomic research and the like.

He is masterful at seeing patterns in things where nobody else sees them, and then tries to talk him out of his plans. Thank goodness he doesn't listen to people like that.

 

[Tommy O]

No. The world, so to speak, knows who Elon Musk is. Were he to be the regular or even on-occasion author of a blog, then all whom you describe would see it, either instantly or through the 2nd- or even 3rd-step removed of the internet.
The vapidity of your final four one-line paragraphs are equally non-, or anti-persuasive.

Internal slack comms were leaked from the reaction to Elon’s twitter video address today. Apparently, twitter employees, who are incentivized to pay attention to news about their own company (self-preservation), are unaware of what musk said just recently in his WSJ interview*.

News doesn’t flow like it did even 10-20 years ago, unfortunately.

*would love to see more of the Elon in that wsj interview. Aggressive, but tactful, funny, and polite.

 

[PeterJA]

The painfully wretched, patently false kind of argument you’re using is in taking the result you want and then looking for some way to achieve that result. That is what the anti-scientific mob revels in.
No. The world, so to speak, knows who Elon Musk is. Were he to be the regular or even on-occasion author of a blog, then all whom you describe would see it, either instantly or through the 2nd- or even 3rd-step removed of the internet.
The vapidity of your final four one-line paragraphs are equally non-, or anti-persuasive.

The highly disrespectful tone of this post is what I often see on Twitter, not TMC, thanks to our hardworking mods.

 

[Drumheller]

Hey all. I have a bit of a predicament and would very much appreciate the Borg hive mind feedback.

In short: When Tesla launched past $1,000 a share I sold 50 shares and put a deposit down on the Roadster. Now, I'm contemplating canceling the deposit so I can reinvest that $50k for, who knows, maybe 100 shares at some point.

In long: I've been trading and then investing in Tesla since 2018. I had 40 shares, sold prior to the C19 dip, bought back 80 near the low, added 20, split happened and boom I'm at 500 shares. Since then I've sold 200 shares at an average of $1000 or so. Roadster deposit, home/Tesla upgrades, put back initial capital, and a little deworsification into other stocks..very small amount and that $200k is locked up/used. I'm giving up the details only because I think it matters in finding the right decision. My brokerage account is out of cash and I'm not willing to sell CCs at these levels. I'm seriously considering getting the $50k Roadster deposit back but I'm not sure if that's a good idea as there are several unknowns. The main reason I put the deposit down was in hopes of locking in the "$200k base price" cost of the car. About a month after I put the deposit down they removed that wording from the order page which made me feel better and more certain about my decision. The reality is 1, Who knows if they will honor that base price as they don't have to contractually. However I can't fathom they'll do wrong by people who dropped $50k for many years now. 2. If they do the likely thing and raise the price, what will it be, $250k? $300k? 3, Who knows when this car will even come out. Cybertruck is probably a year away still so, what, another two years for the Roadster maybe? At this point it's a non-zero that Elon simply cancels it on a whim one day because "the future is FSD". Other things to consider are I'm not sure how long it takes to get the $50k back. Someone in another thread said it took about a month. What if I miss the ~bottom and things turn around and I never really put the cash to work. Alternatively, it's very unlikely but what if I purchase in the $500s and the thing hits $300s and trades there for many years. I don't think that's going to happen but, honestly, it's not impossible. Part of me is like just sit back and relax, having 400 shares instead of 300 shares isn't a game changer, you're way ahead of the game on profits and you've got a deposit on essentially the only material thing you covet. Do nothing and enjoy the days. The other part of me is thinking those $50k worth of shares could be worth buying the whole Roadster when it comes out. Also, it's possible I might not go for it anyway if the stock is in the tank as my intention was to pay for it writing covered calls or selling a share here and there.

Additional info, my intention would be to sell ~$500 puts with the $50k and sell closer to ATM when and if it really gets down there. Also, while I don't make a ton of income personally, my family is extraordinarily comfortable financially. My kid will never want for anything so TSLA isn't really about building generational wealth of anything like that.

You're all smarter than me, what are your thoughts? I spoke with my wife about this tonight and she too remained undecided.

I'm going to give a different take on this. I'm a gamer and I learned many years ago to not pre-order games. Too many disappointments doing that and it encourages developers to release unfinished and unpolished software with a promise to fix it later.

I've worked in software development for over 25 years and I very rarely will pay for unfinished software.

Taking that view, I haven't bought FSD. I also haven't put a deposit on roadster, though I would like one. No one knows when those products will be completed. Although I think it unlikely, there is a possibility that they are never completed or that you are disappointed with them at release.

As you've pointed out, that deposit money could be used for investments. Investments that might grow prior to the release of the roadster. I have read that some people saw a wait before getting the money back from Tesla. That's time that money could be invested.

 

[AudubonB]

(re @PeterJA ) - Taking the result you cherish and then looking for a way to justify that is reprehensible. It is not deserving of respect.
Now, if you think or have evidence that =>I<= am guilty of that, go ahead and lay out your reasoning. In the meantime I and, apparently, some number (4? 10? 99%?) of SpaceX employees are fed up with, frightened, or some combination, of Mr Musk’s actions and, I say, antics on Twitter.

 

[Congo Line]

I'm going to give a different take on this. I'm a gamer and I learned many years ago to not pre-order games. Too many disappointments doing that and it encourages developers to release unfinished and unpolished software with a promise to fix it later.

I've worked in software development for over 25 years and I very rarely will pay for unfinished software.

Taking that view, I haven't bought FSD. I also haven't put a deposit on roadster, though I would like one. No one knows when those products will be completed. Although I think it unlikely, there is a possibility that they are never completed or that you are disappointed with them at release.

As you've pointed out, that deposit money could be used for investments. Investments that might grow prior to the release of the roadster. I have read that some people saw a wait before getting the money back from Tesla. That's time that money could be invested.

I have a deposit on Roadster, and used to second-guess whether it was the right decision, given that it was an opportunity cost in lost investment opportunities.

However, with the recent market decline, I'm pretty happy I had cash just sitting there, which otherwise might have been deployed and losing value in the stock market. So actually my Roadster deposit has ironically been a great investment for me a least so far.

 

[spacerfc]

In the meantime I and, apparently, some number (4? 10? 99%?) of SpaceX employees are fed up with, frightened, or some combination, of Mr Musk’s actions and, I say, antics on Twitter.

Just because there's an open letter does not mean it's a correct or a popular opinion. I guess you never heard of ULA employees protesting their CEO's vaccine mandate...

 

[AudubonB]

Just because there's an open letter does not mean it's a correct or a popular opinion. I guess you never heard of ULA employees protesting their CEO's vaccine mandate...

I certainly agree it does not mean it’s popular. I also hope its creator(s) had no intention of it being subject to a popularity contest.
But not a correct opinion? Please correct me if I’m wrong in thinking that a very, very dangerous statement. Perhaps you meant something else.

 

[PeterJA]

(re @PeterJA ) - Taking the result you cherish and then looking for a way to justify that is reprehensible. It is not deserving of respect.
Now, if you think or have evidence that =>I<= am guilty of that, go ahead and lay out your reasoning. In the meantime I and, apparently, some number (4? 10? 99%?) of SpaceX employees are fed up with, frightened, or some combination, of Mr Musk’s actions and, I say, antics on Twitter.

Since you ask...

I said your post was highly disrespectful, not that you are guilty of anything else. My idea of civilized debate is to try to treat everyone with respect, even the reprehensible. (I don't always succeed.)

Re SpaceX employees: The anonymous letter complained about "recent allegations against our CEO" and "SpaceX’s current systems and culture," not just the "distraction and embarrassment" of Elon's tweets. IMO, if a SpaceX employee can't understand that Elon is the target of a massive disinformation campaign, and that sexual allegations are a textbook tool of such campaigns, and that allegations are not proof, then such employee lacks the intelligence to work for a rocket company... or is an agent of the campaign.

 

[heltok]

 

[MikeC]

Hey all. I have a bit of a predicament and would very much appreciate the Borg hive mind feedback.

In short: When Tesla launched past $1,000 a share I sold 50 shares and put a deposit down on the Roadster. Now, I'm contemplating canceling the deposit so I can reinvest that $50k for, who knows, maybe 100 shares at some point.

In long: I've been trading and then investing in Tesla since 2018. I had 40 shares, sold prior to the C19 dip, bought back 80 near the low, added 20, split happened and boom I'm at 500 shares. Since then I've sold 200 shares at an average of $1000 or so. Roadster deposit, home/Tesla upgrades, put back initial capital, and a little deworsification into other stocks..very small amount and that $200k is locked up/used. I'm giving up the details only because I think it matters in finding the right decision. My brokerage account is out of cash and I'm not willing to sell CCs at these levels. I'm seriously considering getting the $50k Roadster deposit back but I'm not sure if that's a good idea as there are several unknowns. The main reason I put the deposit down was in hopes of locking in the "$200k base price" cost of the car. About a month after I put the deposit down they removed that wording from the order page which made me feel better and more certain about my decision. The reality is 1, Who knows if they will honor that base price as they don't have to contractually. However I can't fathom they'll do wrong by people who dropped $50k for many years now. 2. If they do the likely thing and raise the price, what will it be, $250k? $300k? 3, Who knows when this car will even come out. Cybertruck is probably a year away still so, what, another two years for the Roadster maybe? At this point it's a non-zero that Elon simply cancels it on a whim one day because "the future is FSD". Other things to consider are I'm not sure how long it takes to get the $50k back. Someone in another thread said it took about a month. What if I miss the ~bottom and things turn around and I never really put the cash to work. Alternatively, it's very unlikely but what if I purchase in the $500s and the thing hits $300s and trades there for many years. I don't think that's going to happen but, honestly, it's not impossible. Part of me is like just sit back and relax, having 400 shares instead of 300 shares isn't a game changer, you're way ahead of the game on profits and you've got a deposit on essentially the only material thing you covet. Do nothing and enjoy the days. The other part of me is thinking those $50k worth of shares could be worth buying the whole Roadster when it comes out. Also, it's possible I might not go for it anyway if the stock is in the tank as my intention was to pay for it writing covered calls or selling a share here and there.

Additional info, my intention would be to sell ~$500 puts with the $50k and sell closer to ATM when and if it really gets down there. Also, while I don't make a ton of income personally, my family is extraordinarily comfortable financially. My kid will never want for anything so TSLA isn't really about building generational wealth of anything like that.

You're all smarter than me, what are your thoughts? I spoke with my wife about this tonight and she too remained undecided.

I would personally get the refund and buy shares whenever you get the money.

If the stock price languishes, you probably won’t buy the Roadster anyway.

If you sell a $500 put, decent chance you make the premium but then the stock runs away from you.

 

[Ogre]

Yeah this post from yesterday did not age well at all.

Heeyyyyo!