Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Question]

I saw this chart a few days ago and I think it’s an increasingly likely scenario:


View attachment 817693

Basically market is reverting to it pre “make it rain” trend. By end of year recessionary data should be reversing too.

Long chart like that doesn't work because of the scale. Maybe log chart would work better. If you use long time frames it always look like we are in a bubble because of exponential growth.

Edit: Better explanation: that blue line in your chart assumes that stock market would rise X point amount per year (linear growth). This is false, as we know from history that the stock market rather rises X percentage amount (exponential growth) per year.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I saw this chart a few days ago and I think it’s an increasingly likely scenario:


View attachment 817693

Basically market is reverting to it pre “make it rain” trend. By end of year recessionary data should be reversing too.

Overlay earnings and see what that looks like.

 

[mongo]

But that would be incorrect.

Those people were completely free to start their movement and say whatever they wanted to. Elon supports their right to do so. HOWEVER, that does not mean actions do not have consequences, and sometimes when you actively say something against the CEO of the company you work for, well then you no longer get the privilege of working there.

So YES to the right to free speech, but
NO to actions not having any consequences.

You are simply trying to paint a narrative to push your obvious agenda, which is spreading Tesla FUD for some reason. You should try harder in the future.

Don't fight strawmen [edit: sorry if that came off gatekeepery, just trying to call out it seems like a distraction] , it's not a free speech issue. It's a using company resources to harass employees issue.


Shotwell's email (per the verge)

You may have received an unsolicited request from a small group of SpaceX employees for your signature on an “open letter” yesterday and your participation in a related survey. Based on diverse employee feedback, this has upset many. That is, the letter, solicitations and general process made employees feel uncomfortable, intimidated and bullied, and/or angry because the letter pressured them to sign onto something that did not reflect their views. Employees also complained that it interfered with their ability to focus on and do their work. We have 3 launches within 37 hours for critical satellites this weekend, we have to support the astronauts we delivered to the ISS and get cargo Dragon back to the flight-ready, and after receiving environmental approval early this week, we are on the cusp of the first orbital launch attempt of Starship. We have too much critical work to accomplish and no need for this kind of overreaching activism — our current leadership team is more dedicated to ensuring we have a great and ever-improving work environment than any I have seen in my 35-years career.


We solicit and expect our employees to report all concerns to their leadership, senior management, HR, or Legal. But blanketing thousands of people across the company with repeated unsolicited emails and asking them to sign letters and fill out unsponsored surveys during the work day is unacceptable, goes against our documented handbook policy, and does not show the strong judgement needed to work in this very challenging space transportation sector. We performed an investigation and have terminated a number of employees involved.


I am sorry for this distraction. Please stay focused on the SpaceX mission, and use your time at work to do your best work. This is how we will get to Mars.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Don't look now kids, but the crude oil trade might be cracking. Supplies are trending up, demand has peaked, and recession worries are building.

I think if we all just pretend the world is ending for two more weeks, we can get WTI back down below $70. Then we're all set.

 

[Krugerrand]

If I have time later today I’ll try to decide if it’s worth my while looking back to see if your use of ‘passive aggressive’ is a term you have a tendency to pull out on many with whom you disagree; my recollection is it is…and that it is not so worthwhile.

Irrespective of that, indeed it most absolutely is the case that in the many, many years I have hosted, promulgated and massaged this site, I have tried to lead by example, tried to get others to understand the use of careful and deliberate writing, and to get people to think for themselves.

I also am aware of and sensitive to the repercussions of discussing- and championing - divisive issues, and normally sit back and moderate, without entering the fray.

That itself is testimony: when this wretched business about Twitter has so enveloped Mr Musk that he alleges it is a free speech platform that alone can save us from ourselves - no, I no longer can stay silent.

With that, I also will follow my own dictates and have others have the last word.

You know, I’m totally fine with how you or others perceive me. Good or bad. Unlike many, I have no illusions about the type of person I am. More specifically, there is a reason I can recognize traits in others.

My post was not a point of disagreement on the topic, it was a statement of fact and a stand against your veiled behavior that others are afraid to point out to you. You’re clever and you use that to outmaneuver others. I *see* you.

None of that has anything to do with the unenviable position of ‘posting moderator’. Do as you will, just know you’re not fooling everyone.

 

[ZachF]

Don't fight strawmen, it's not a free speech issue. It's a using company resources to harass employees issue.


Shotwell's email (per the verge)

Gwynne is IMHO one of the best managers in the country or perhaps even the world.

 

[ZachF]

Overlay earnings and see what that looks like.

P/E ratio is about middling. If recession comes profits for the market as a whole will probably temporarily decline.

PEG ratio for Tesla is probably around 0.75-0.80 now. Strong buy.

 

[Drax7]

Don't look now kids, but the crude oil trade might be cracking. Supplies are trending up, demand has peaked, and recession worries are building.

I think if we all just pretend the world is ending for two more weeks, we can get WTI back down below $70. Then we're all set.

Brent crude nov delivery down 5.23 to 107.09
give me a close below $100 and hope will resurface

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

View attachment 817696

P/E ratio is about middling. If recession comes profits for the market as a whole will probably temporarily decline.

PEG ratio for Tesla is probably around 0.75-0.80 now. Strong buy.

Forward P\E for the market right now is in the 15-16 range. Below the 5 year and 10 year average. It’ll be multiple quarters before a recession could start to meaningful hit earnings for a lot of companies

 

[Krugerrand]

Scale is misleading, but 600-700 is pretty flat. Outside that band lies madness.

View attachment 817687

Wow, if outside that is madness we must redefine madness because it’s all looking quite mad to me in this moment.

It’s been quite a while since the last time there was such a bully pile on of Elon. The guy can’t wipe his ‘brow’ properly to satisfy anyone right now and it’s being used to jerk us all around. I want off the ride, tyvm.

 

[StealthP3D]

I also am aware of and sensitive to the repercussions of discussing- and championing - divisive issues, and normally sit back and moderate, without entering the fray.

That itself is testimony: when this wretched business about Twitter has so enveloped Mr Musk that he alleges it is a free speech platform that alone can save us from ourselves - no, I no longer can stay silent.

I think you misrepresent Elon when you claim he alleges Twitter is a free speech platform.

What I have gathered from the sum total of Elon' comments I have seen, is that he believes Twitter has replaced the town square as well as traditional media as the defacto "town square" or public forum and that it is important that the process of being heard is not turned into a privilege that is controlled by unknown people in an opaque and non-accountable manner. He thinks Twitter could be a better tool for humanity if it was not censored just because those in control disagreed with some things that were said. That ultimately it's the people who should determine truth, not some unelected and unknown board who is invisible and doesn't have to answer to anyone.

Elon believes this is bad for society and democracy and that a modern world needs a platform that can be trusted to act for the common good. Further, that it undermines public confidence in the platform (and thus public discourse itself) when popular people are banned from that platform simply for voicing ideas that you or I may find repugnant.

Everything Elon says will be twisted by those who are threatened by the disruption he is leading and participants here should strive to not further those people's agenda by inadvertently giving their voices more credibility.

In-post non-Mod response: Thank you. See my amended post.

 

[ZachF]

Forward P\E for the market right now is 15. Below the 5 year and 10 year average. It’ll be multiple quarters before a recession could start to meaningful hit earnings for a lot of companies

Earnings will decline for most companies if a likely recession occurs (will be temporary though). Tesla estimates are low though. On Q2 earnings you’re probably gonna see a whole bunch of companies guide lower.

I mean, the market is estimating $40 billion in profit next year for Amazon, which is a complete fantasy number.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Earnings will decline for most companies if a likely recession occurs (will be temporary though). Tesla estimates are low though. On Q2 earnings you’re probably gonna see a whole bunch of companies guide lower.

I mean, the market is estimating $40 billion in profit next year for Amazon, which is a complete fantasy number.

If there is a recession, I don’t think you’ll see it show up in earnings for most companies until Q3, possible as late as Q4.

The thing is though is that by far the vast majority of profits are coming from tech. A recession will slow the growth of earnings for tech, but earnings won’t decline. Then you have energy posting records earnings. So I don’t see earnings flatlining this year and even at worst earnings do flatline from Q1’s earnings, it means the real P/E of the S&P is 15, not 18

 

[Atomsla]

I saw this chart a few days ago and I think it’s an increasingly likely scenario:

I know its futile to try and point out the silliness of trend lines, but oh well, couldn't help myself. You'll find people drawing them in any of the ways I did in the image above and being absolutely certain that they work like a charm just like they drew em, most of the time. I'll go for the purple one, I like that the mostest.

 

[Accident]

Updated WA sales data with ASP.

M3 and MY ASP clearly creeping up about ~$3K QoQ

Spoiler: Table

ASP	Model	Count	Month
50106.31647​	Model 3	850​	Jun-21​
46675.52632​	Model 3	152​	Jul-21​
49202.21184​	Model 3	321​	Aug-21​
51364.40095​	Model 3	843​	Sep-21​
48022.20641​	Model 3	281​	Oct-21​
50523.86774​	Model 3	499​	Nov-21​
53963.4593​	Model 3	688​	Dec-21​
53319.94737​	Model 3	190​	Jan-22​
53864.63054​	Model 3	406​	Feb-22​
53483.73217​	Model 3	687​	Mar-22​
57044.75556​	Model 3	45​	Apr-22​
55171.25​	Model 3	128​	May-22​
118921.5068​	Model S	73​	Jun-21​
104513.6842​	Model S	38​	Jul-21​
123575.7143​	Model S	49​	Aug-21​
120826.1386​	Model S	101​	Sep-21​
127176.3636​	Model S	22​	Oct-21​
104970.2469​	Model S	81​	Nov-21​
116401.4433​	Model S	97​	Dec-21​
105205.1786​	Model S	56​	Jan-22​
105796.8182​	Model S	44​	Feb-22​
101258.6331​	Model S	169​	Mar-22​
99196​	Model S	10​	Apr-22​
104570.8333​	Model S	6​	May-22​
78740​	Model X	1​	Sep-21​
111495.7895​	Model X	19​	Dec-21​
121951.1111​	Model X	18​	Jan-22​
123819.6316​	Model X	38​	Feb-22​
114021.6406​	Model X	128​	Mar-22​
126065​	Model X	4​	Apr-22​
116496.25​	Model X	8​	May-22​
59539.63043​	Model Y	1242​	Jun-21​
55805.83333​	Model Y	216​	Jul-21​
57324.08663​	Model Y	531​	Aug-21​
59806.15445​	Model Y	887​	Sep-21​
59072.39203​	Model Y	602​	Oct-21​
59626.97595​	Model Y	582​	Nov-21​
64910.70644​	Model Y	637​	Dec-21​
60265.71429​	Model Y	588​	Jan-22​
60865.43575​	Model Y	358​	Feb-22​
66570.22154​	Model Y	984​	Mar-22​
64157.21196​	Model Y	184​	Apr-22​
63850.99071​	Model Y	225​	May-22​

 

[Matias]

I Won't buy any more stocks till october (average length of bear market is 289 days) or before S&P 500 is in 3000 (average decline in bear market is 37%). Which ever comes first.

 

[ZachF]

If there is a recession, I don’t think you’ll see it show up in earnings for most companies until Q3, possible as late as Q4.

The thing is though is that by far the vast majority of profits are coming from tech. A recession will slow the growth of earnings for tech, but earnings won’t decline. Then you have energy posting records earnings. So I don’t see earnings flatlining this year and even at worst earnings do flatline from Q1’s earnings, it means the real P/E of the S&P is 15, not 18

Earnings could certainly decline at tech. It’s already happening at Amazon and Facebook, and if people decide to wait on their new iPhone because it costs $150 to full their car up it could happen at Apple too. A lot of the smaller companies lose money or barely make any at all.

TTM Growth rates for revenue, operating income, and profit at the large firms are already dropping rapidly.

 

[PeterJA]

...when this wretched business about Twitter has so enveloped Mr Musk that he alleges it is a free speech platform that alone can save us from ourselves - no, I no longer can stay silent....

1) Elon didn't allege Twitter is a free speech platform. He said he wants to make it one.

2) He didn't say Twitter alone can save us from ourselves. He has other projects to help with that.

I'm guessing your hatred of Twitter is warping your perception, as hatred often does. Welcome to the human race.

 

[AudubonB]

1. Post has been amended, were you to have looked.

2. Don’t guess.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Earnings could certainly decline at tech. It’s already happening at Amazon and Facebook, and if people decide to wait on their new iPhone because it costs $150 to full their car up it could happen at Apple too. A lot of the smaller companies lose money or barely make any at all.

TTM Growth rates for revenue, operating income, and profit at the large firms are already dropping rapidly.

Except.......that's already accounted for in the Forward P/E. In fact, I would say the Forward P/E of Amazon is materially affecting the S&P's P/E ratios to the upside, simply because of one time items. Ford's as well. The S&P TTM and Forward P/E's would be lower if you took out those one time items.

Amazon had a huge write down because of Rivian. That's a one time item that doesn't really reflect it's business, but it still gets counted in the S&P TTM and Forward P/Es. Most of tech's earnings decline for the past two quarters has been because of one thing and one thing only......Apple's change to it's advertising revenue. Eventually that works it's way through all of tech's earnings and the decline flatlines from that factor.

If anything, I actually expect a good part of tech to have an earnings rebound in second half of 2022 even if there is a small recession, as Apple's change will have finally finished working it's way out of tech's earnings