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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Btw, who wants to make a wager we end up at exactly 650 today, not matter how hard the macro's rally from here. The spoofing/capping has already started

I'd rather the macro's just go down in this type of situation where it's clear TSLA is not going to follow them up.

Next week's options though, as someone pointed out a couple days ago are pretty interesting. Quite the amount of 800 and 810 Calls. I wouldn't get too excited though. Quite a large amount of Puts at 600 already for the week after......which coincidentally is the week before P/D. Gee.......I wonder if we're going to see some hit piece FUD come out???? :rolleyes:
 
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Except.......that's already accounted for in the Forward P/E. In fact, I would say the Forward P/E of Amazon is materially affecting the S&P's P/E ratios to the upside, simply because of one time items. Ford's as well.

Amazon had a huge write down because of Rivian. That's a one time item that doesn't really reflect it's business, but it still gets counted in the S&P TTM and Forward P/Es. Most of tech's earnings decline for the past two quarters has been because of one thing and one thing only......Apple's change to it's advertising revenue.

If anything, I actually expect a good part of tech to have an earnings rebound in second half of 2022 even if there is a small recession, as Apple's change will have finally finished working it's way out of tech's earnings

Operating income has been declining at Amazon for over a year now, and Rivian doesn’t even factor in to that. It’s down by about half over the last year. Recession and $5 gasoline hasn’t even factored in yet either!
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Facebook? In decline.
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Apple? Plateauing. Probably declining if inflation is factored in, again not even in recession yet either.
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Same with Google:
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I think some people have not factored in that much of the recent growth was from (temporary) COVID stimulus and policy that benefited them to an outsized degree.
 
Except.......that's already accounted for in the Forward P/E. In fact, I would say the Forward P/E of Amazon is materially affecting the S&P's P/E ratios to the upside, simply because of one time items. Ford's as well.

Amazon had a huge write down because of Rivian. That's a one time item that doesn't really reflect it's business, but it still gets counted in the S&P TTM and Forward P/Es. Most of tech's earnings decline for the past two quarters has been because of one thing and one thing only......Apple's change to it's advertising revenue. Eventually that works it's way through all of tech's earnings and the decline flatlines from that factor.

If anything, I actually expect a good part of tech to have an earnings rebound in second half of 2022 even if there is a small recession, as Apple's change will have finally finished working it's way out of tech's earnings
Amazon's write downs for RIvian are not over. It will be a gift that keeps on taking...
 
So much bullish signaling today, my eyes can barely take all the flashing lights!

Potential @Krugerrand & @AudubonB leg wrestling competition.

Posting of historically low market PE ratios labeled as "middling".

Surprise glut of Russian crude supply!

2018 @TheTalkingMule would be buying 6/24 calls hand over fist right now. 2022 new adult me is more monitoring LEAPs with a warm sense of excitement at their inevitable rise.

And I would argue even THAT is ALSO bullish! What a week.

That 2Q earnings report/guidance is gonna bulldoze every CC seller in this market and be the liftoff to ATH. Book it. I was pretty sure 3 weeks ago, I'm nearing certain now.
 
Surely we have reached Peak Snippiness now? Mods griping at frequent posters, grumpy cats *seeing* people, deeper meaning of Twitter debated.... This means SP turnaround time, right? 😂
No no no! You gotta let the snippiness build(and break) organically. How do you think we got this far?

They'll be holding hands and shopping for islands soon enough.
 
No no no! You gotta let the snippiness build(and break) organically. How do you think we got this far?

They'll be holding hands and shopping for islands soon enough.
It's gotta be getting close. The moderators have started into the bickering so we can't be far from peak snippiness... otherwise it all descends into chaos.
 
So much bullish signaling today, my eyes can barely take all the flashing lights!

Potential @Krugerrand & @AudubonB leg wrestling competition.

Posting of historically low market PE ratios labeled as "middling".

Surprise glut of Russian crude supply!

2018 @TheTalkingMule would be buying 6/24 calls hand over fist right now. 2022 new adult me is more monitoring LEAPs with a warm sense of excitement at their inevitable rise.

And I would argue even THAT is ALSO bullish! What a week.

That 2Q earnings report/guidance is gonna bulldoze every CC seller in this market and be the liftoff to ATH. Book it. I was pretty sure 3 weeks ago, I'm nearing certain now.
Don't you dare make a prediction of a rally
 
Don't look now kids, but the crude oil trade might be cracking. Supplies are trending up, demand has peaked, and recession worries are building.

I think if we all just pretend the world is ending for two more weeks, we can get WTI back down below $70. Then we're all set.
How ironic on a Tesla investor website we are hoping for the oil price to go down.
 
How ironic on a Tesla investor website we are hoping for the oil price to go down.
We're past the tipping point where high oil prices are needed to spur the transition to renewables & EVs. I think we're likely raw materials and political will(corruption) constrained for the duration.

I wanna move forward to the post-OPEC world. We're close!
 
My wife has been repeating for one month now that all the Twitter drama and Elon tweeting frequently is hurting shareholders more than helping the world to transition to sustainable energy. I couldn’t disagree with her, because she is my wife of course.

I wish to think there will be some way Elon uses Twitter to make democracy work on Mars but I don’t understand how important decisions could be taken with daily/weekly Twitter polls without risk of massive quantity of bots voting and abusing.
For months now, the stock price action has been demoralizing and the constant drizzle of hit pieces wearing for all of us, presumably including Elon.

Elon is in the arena, fighting mightily on many fronts. We are in the stands. No doubt she wants to see him victorious, so it is natural for her to feel annoyed when he does things that may seem to her to lead away from victory.

Personally, I reserve judgement on some of the things Elon does—the Twitter deal, the Bitcoin investment, some of his tweeting—and I dismiss virtually all attempts to connect these things with particular stock price movements.

It may be best for you just to commiserate with her and to look to the brighter future which is fast approaching, as opposed to ‘educating’ her about and dwelling on these things as has been suggested.

I’m not saying roll over all the time. More often than not though, its good to look at the whole situation and speak with consideration from a place of affection.

Would that I had learned this sooner: I might not be divorced.
 
EAP making a comeback? More people might opt for that who think FSD is too expensive, then upgrade to FSD later if they are happy with EAP.

Wow. I bought EAP for US$5,000 back in 2018. It's all I want and use (lots of long road trips), and nothing more because I like driving quickly in city traffic. It's a cost-effective option for people who like driving the quickest cars on the road. Not sure what the take rate will be, but it would be an easy addition of some revenue for TSLA.