Wasn't an option when I bought my car but I'd have ponied up. It'll be hard to resist prior to my next road trip.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ZachF
Active Member
They will probably have a write down almost as large as the Q1 write down. I think it’s 50/50 Amazon even makes any profit at all this year.
If they’re lucky profit could recover to ~$20b next year… which means trading at over 50x next year’s income even with the recent drop!
I think Amazon and Salesforce are stocks with large possibilities of big drops from here.
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Looking at the supercharger growth in China and Asia I can see why China is becoming the world economic leader. Those countries that continue to feed off the fossil fools addictions are moving down the economic ladder along with the standard of living which includes good water and food going down the drain. The disruption is happening fast; much faster than anyone can see. I guess exponential is difficult to visualize. Our oldest Tesla a Model S is still perfect without any maintenance costs except a change of tires. Love the FSD which has prevented accidents and made long travel a real joy. 8 years with Tesla and can't understand how anyone can buy any other vehicle; of those buying fossil fool cars must have a thinking issue.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Sometimes I have trouble trying to ketchup with the humor around here...Ca-Pit-U-Lation is making me late
Is keeping me waiting...
Don't worry about that. FSD in Chill Mode drives similar to Gilles Villeneuve. And there are two faster modes as well.
I cannot give a like because this is my first post. I would like it if I could.Surely we have reached Peak Snippiness now? Mods griping at frequent posters, grumpy cats *seeing* people, deeper meaning of Twitter debated.... This means SP turnaround time, right?
The Accountant
Active Member
My guess is Saturday July 2.
Krugerrand
Meow
Absolutely not. I will only accept a challenge of a pistol duel as my fencing talents are currently lacking.
I do appreciate your consistent rah-rah optimism of late. I want you to be right as badly as I want @Unpilot to show up at my doorstep so I can try out my new catapult I just had installed on the mountain.
Wouldn't that be a "dog-apult" then......
This post makes me less pessimistic than I tend to be at the moment.
Still, my nearly new Plaid S is probably going up for sale.
She has proven that over and over. That she does a stellar (not a pun) job with minimal drama is even better.
"Political corruption constrained" I freaking love it. Will steal.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Back to actual Tesla analysis…
Regarding the recent price hikes in the US—to what extent are they because of supply constraints or demand increases?
Google search trends are probably the single best measure of what the populace is actually thinking about. Google is of course the most popular search engine and it lets people ask questions privately without any social consequences. I do not have sociology studies to support this claim though, so there’s a chance this isn’t actually true, but it certainly aligns with my personal habits and what I’ve observed from everyone around me.
The trends show a large spike in American search interest for “electric cars” in June, almost as large as the spike in March on the week of Russo-Ukrainian war beginning.
I won’t clutter this post with too many charts, but I see almost identical trends for most individual EV models across all brands I checked, including:
I left out Mach-E and Bolt because the trend for them is probably mixed up with the major recall news.
Searches for “Tesla” remain elevated compared to February and earlier, but not much of a recent spike. However I think this search is less informative about demand and curiosity because it’s related not only to the cars, but also the stock, Elon Musk, recalls, Nikola Tesla, Tesla coils, Tesla the rock band, and any other Tesla topics. The chart below is zoomed out to the last five years and it shows “Tesla” interest has very high variance, which means short term spikes are likely not statistically significant anyway, but the long-term trend shows general interest is double what it was in 2017.
The big one is this: Unsurprisingly, we see a strong correlation between searches for “gas prices” and “electric cars”. Although gas prices have roughly 20x more interest in general, both search terms tend to follow each other’s relative movements.
Relatedly, “how much does it cost to charge an electric car” is at triple the interest in the USA compare to last year’s baseline, and it’s slowly creeping back up after the explosion of interest in March. Interestingly, unlike other EV-related searches, this one is strongest in the middle of the country, with West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Kansas and Arkansas leading the charge. Conveniently, many of these states have high demand for pickup trucks and are pretty nearby to Austin.
The dominant conclusion remains that a LOT of people became curious about electric cars when Mr. Putin decided to send troops across the border and fuel prices surged.
Remember when Zach Kirkhorn, a man who does not tend to publicly present himself as prone to hyperbole, commented this on an earnings call?
It’s clear that high gas prices, more than any other factor, are what drives people (or Americans at least) to initiate self-education about EVs, and from there they begin to learn about the other benefits. Twitter, FUD, politics, oil-funded smear campaigns, recession, and a bunch of other things demonstrably do not matter as much as frustration with sending money up in smoke at the pump every week. In a broader context, this also makes sense because American full-size truck and SUV sales have also historically been correlated strongly with current fuel prices since at least as far back as the 1970s Oil Crisis. Every single day that oil stays at $120/barrel is another day more folks are learning and correcting their own misconceptions and lack of awareness about how great EVs actually are. Once they learn, they remember and intent to purchase in the future is implanted in their minds.
Regarding the recent price hikes in the US—to what extent are they because of supply constraints or demand increases?
Google search trends are probably the single best measure of what the populace is actually thinking about. Google is of course the most popular search engine and it lets people ask questions privately without any social consequences. I do not have sociology studies to support this claim though, so there’s a chance this isn’t actually true, but it certainly aligns with my personal habits and what I’ve observed from everyone around me.
The trends show a large spike in American search interest for “electric cars” in June, almost as large as the spike in March on the week of Russo-Ukrainian war beginning.
I won’t clutter this post with too many charts, but I see almost identical trends for most individual EV models across all brands I checked, including:
- Tesla S3XY models
- Cybertruck
- Kia EV6
- Audi E-Tron
- Hyundai Kona EV
- Hyundai Ioniq
- Nissan Leaf
I left out Mach-E and Bolt because the trend for them is probably mixed up with the major recall news.
Searches for “Tesla” remain elevated compared to February and earlier, but not much of a recent spike. However I think this search is less informative about demand and curiosity because it’s related not only to the cars, but also the stock, Elon Musk, recalls, Nikola Tesla, Tesla coils, Tesla the rock band, and any other Tesla topics. The chart below is zoomed out to the last five years and it shows “Tesla” interest has very high variance, which means short term spikes are likely not statistically significant anyway, but the long-term trend shows general interest is double what it was in 2017.
The big one is this: Unsurprisingly, we see a strong correlation between searches for “gas prices” and “electric cars”. Although gas prices have roughly 20x more interest in general, both search terms tend to follow each other’s relative movements.
Relatedly, “how much does it cost to charge an electric car” is at triple the interest in the USA compare to last year’s baseline, and it’s slowly creeping back up after the explosion of interest in March. Interestingly, unlike other EV-related searches, this one is strongest in the middle of the country, with West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Kansas and Arkansas leading the charge. Conveniently, many of these states have high demand for pickup trucks and are pretty nearby to Austin.
The dominant conclusion remains that a LOT of people became curious about electric cars when Mr. Putin decided to send troops across the border and fuel prices surged.
Remember when Zach Kirkhorn, a man who does not tend to publicly present himself as prone to hyperbole, commented this on an earnings call?
“The great thing that we're seeing in the space right now is there appears to just be quite a profound awakening of the desirability for electric vehicles. And I mean, to be totally frank, it's caught us a little bit off guard... folks want to buy an electric car and folks want to buy a Tesla right now. It's very exciting for us.”
This comment came in October! Interest has more than doubled since then with no sign of abating any time soon. It’s clear that high gas prices, more than any other factor, are what drives people (or Americans at least) to initiate self-education about EVs, and from there they begin to learn about the other benefits. Twitter, FUD, politics, oil-funded smear campaigns, recession, and a bunch of other things demonstrably do not matter as much as frustration with sending money up in smoke at the pump every week. In a broader context, this also makes sense because American full-size truck and SUV sales have also historically been correlated strongly with current fuel prices since at least as far back as the 1970s Oil Crisis. Every single day that oil stays at $120/barrel is another day more folks are learning and correcting their own misconceptions and lack of awareness about how great EVs actually are. Once they learn, they remember and intent to purchase in the future is implanted in their minds.
Or you could be like Elon and challenge Putin to hand to hand combat with one hand tied behind your back
...Better days are ahead for us everyone....this prolonged headwinds will all be a memory when we reach ATH again...3:1 split, FSD (maybe), CT, Gigas ramping....the FUD will only last for so long. Have a great father's day to all the dad's out there!Remember the following....Father's day is the only day us dads truly get....every other day is Mother's day!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Ha! Speak for yourself, I love high oil and gas prices!
Reg. unleaded is over $5.50 at the cheapest high-volume gas station I drive by on the local Reservation that has a sweetheart tax deal from the state of Washington. That's still too cheap for me! Now all we need is higher production of EV's so everyone can join in on the fun! Job security for Tesla's automotive division. And their solar business. And their energy storage business.
Getting rid of gas in your life is fun! We just replaced our GE Profile gas kitchen range with an all-electric Miele induction range. Highly recommended upgrade. Far better than I imagined. It's as profound of an upgrade as switching from ICE to EV and that is not an exaggeration!
This is going to sound like advertising for Miele, but I have no financial interest, I just love the product. We had a Miele radiant electric range 30 years ago and while I appreciated that it was a high-quality product, I never liked the way it worked, the user interface and the limitations it had. I didn't feel like it was a machine for a cook and didn't like using it. After that we switched to gas but now I wonder how we lived with such an archaic device. The GE Profile gas range/oven was a disaster, slow to heat up top and bottom, stinky and hot. But the heat was not where you wanted it. Bad at broiling, bad at searing and bad at slow cooking. And super inefficient. But things have changed at Miele in the intervening 30 years.
Miele only makes one standard size induction range, it's not cheap but it's really worth what you get so don't eliminate it on cost alone. The way the oven holds high heat without radiating into the room is amazing, the window glass stays cool to the touch even after hours at high temperatures which means your kitchen will stay much cooler and your electric bill will be happy. We love both the oven and the induction cooktop including the user interface which is very useable. The Master Chef modes are over-rated, don't buy it for that feature, buy it for the quality of construction, ease of use, high temperatures, even heating, efficiency, super fast warm up, versatility and lack of emissions.
The two downsides are the high price and you need 50 amp circuit.
This is going to sound like advertising for Miele, but I have no financial interest, I just love the product. We had a Miele radiant electric range 30 years ago and while I appreciated that it was a high-quality product, I never liked the way it worked, the user interface and the limitations it had. I didn't feel like it was a machine for a cook and didn't like using it. After that we switched to gas but now I wonder how we lived with such an archaic device. The GE Profile gas range/oven was a disaster, slow to heat up top and bottom, stinky and hot. But the heat was not where you wanted it. Bad at broiling, bad at searing and bad at slow cooking. And super inefficient. But things have changed at Miele in the intervening 30 years.
Miele only makes one standard size induction range, it's not cheap but it's really worth what you get so don't eliminate it on cost alone. The way the oven holds high heat without radiating into the room is amazing, the window glass stays cool to the touch even after hours at high temperatures which means your kitchen will stay much cooler and your electric bill will be happy. We love both the oven and the induction cooktop including the user interface which is very useable. The Master Chef modes are over-rated, don't buy it for that feature, buy it for the quality of construction, ease of use, high temperatures, even heating, efficiency, super fast warm up, versatility and lack of emissions.
The two downsides are the high price and you need 50 amp circuit.
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Is there a way to make the graphics a little larger? I have a large screen and these were tough to read from where I sit.
This
. Like you, I prefer driving myself in city traffic. I'm sure there will come a day when FSD is good enough to want to use all the time, but I don't see that in the near future (I would be thrilled to be wrong). In the meantime, EAP hits the sweet spot.We bought EAP for both our Model 3s in 2018. Our new Model Y only has the standard AP, which is fine. But we miss EAP as most of our family driving now is in the MY. Would purchase in a heartbeat.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It's worth something when you can open "UPGRADES" in the app for your car and it says "You have all available upgrades".
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