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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I am not giving up any of my shares. Even just some of them. This is true even though I spent my last dry powder at 1,050 and then again at 850.

If we end up in a longer recession and nothing seems to turn around, name another tech/growth stock with the position TSLA has....huge backlog and comfort to raise prices again. I suspect this latest price raise is more about too much backlog/demand than it is raw material inflation. Supply chain is the only thing slowing Tesla down ATM. They want to run at full speed. It seems to me that it's extremely unlikely that Tesla has to pull the levers to gin up demand. Which means in a world where tech struggles, Tesla won't. So, no thanks MM, go find your discounted shares elsewhere.

Re: FUD... I suspect that the many industry enemies that Elon has made are all just pilling on for unrelated angles...once you have Elon In your sights, you can goose everyone else's FUD too because he's simply the common enemy. It smells.

HODL if at all possible..
 
For months now, the stock price action has been demoralizing and the constant drizzle of hit pieces wearing for all of us, presumably including Elon.

Elon is in the arena, fighting mightily on many fronts. We are in the stands. No doubt she wants to see him victorious, so it is natural for her to feel annoyed when he does things that may seem to her to lead away from victory.

Personally, I reserve judgement on some of the things Elon does—the Twitter deal, the Bitcoin investment, some of his tweeting—and I dismiss virtually all attempts to connect these things with particular stock price movements.

It may be best for you just to commiserate with her and to look to the brighter future which is fast approaching, as opposed to ‘educating’ her about and dwelling on these things as has been suggested.

I’m not saying roll over all the time. More often than not though, its good to look at the whole situation and speak with consideration from a place of affection.

Would that I had learned this sooner: I might not be divorced.

A staff who worked in spine told me once: « I am always right, it’s even better when the other is wrong. »

My philosophy is: « My wife is always right, it’s even better when I am wrong. »
 
I’ve learned the hard way, over 30 years of investing, that I have absolutely no ability to predict short term moves of individual stocks or markets.

Investors should stay focused on company fundamentals: product demand, margins, size of market, legitimate competitive threats.

It’s sooooooo tempting to predict market direction. But that road leads only to the casino. Go to the casino with play money, not your retirement funds.

Write this 100 times on the blackboard:

I have no better understanding of how the market will move next week/month/quarter than whether the next spin will be red or black.
 
I won’t clutter this post with too many charts, but I see almost identical trends for most individual EV models across all brands I checked, including:
  • Tesla S3XY models
  • Cybertruck
  • Kia EV6
  • Audi E-Tron
  • Hyundai Kona EV
  • Hyundai Ioniq
  • Nissan Leaf
Notable exceptions: Porsche Taycan, Jaguar I-Pace, and Mercedes EQS interest seems to be unaffected by fuel prices, and the only spike for Volvo Polestar 2 was the week after the Superbowl. These are luxury vehicles selling mainly to customers who don’t care much about value per dollar, so that makes sense.

I left out Mach-E and Bolt because the trend for them is probably mixed up with the major recall news.

Searches for “Tesla” remain elevated compared to February and earlier, but not much of a recent spike. However I think this search is less informative about demand and curiosity because it’s related not only to the cars, but also the stock, Elon Musk, recalls, Nikola Tesla, Tesla coils, Tesla the rock band, and any other Tesla topics. The chart below is zoomed out to the last five years and it shows “Tesla” interest has very high variance, which means short term spikes are likely not statistically significant anyway, but the long-term trend shows general interest is double what it was in 2017.

I love using Google Trends to do various analyses like that. One thing to be aware of when searching for "EV's" and "Tesla" and various Tesla models is the way people commonly use language may not capture things as expected. For example, people often use "Tesla" and "EV" as almost synonymous terms. It would be like searching for: "sterile adhesive strips" and "Band-aid" or "facial tissues" and "Kleenex". Your search results need to be normalized to account for this.

Additionally, I often wonder if web bots from unknown entities are used for the specific purpose of artificially jacking up the number of hits on selected search terms.
 
Wu Wa video comments says 3000/day rate 'according to informants'
that's a nice lot of cars! 1M/yr!? seems acceptable
Real question is that 3000/day for 6 days or 7 days a week. In the prior closed loop they were doing 6 day weeks. But lockdown restrictions are over. They could have upped to 7 days a week for maximum effort. Means the difference between producing 72k for June verses 84k. Likely somewhere in the middle. I think 80k could be possible
 
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I am confused. So far today:
TSLA $654 (+2.3%)
NKLA $5.76 (+9.62%)
LCID $16.67 (+7.2%)
RIVN $26.72 (+1.63%)
RIDE $1.66 (+8.12%)
ELMS $0.39 (+39.29%) - and they are filing chapter 7 bankrupcy
ELMS is a kind of pump and dump today. Basically, it's relying on greed to lure people into thinking they can make a quick buck.
 
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I am confused. So far today:
TSLA $654 (+2.3%)
NKLA $5.76 (+9.62%)
LCID $16.67 (+7.2%)
RIVN $26.72 (+1.63%)
RIDE $1.66 (+8.12%)
ELMS $0.39 (+39.29%) - and they are filing chapter 7 bankrupcy
If you believe in MM protecting call/put sellers on triple witching day, then one should expect high put buyer stocks(negative sentiment) to be positive today to ensure those buys are screwed, and positive sentiment stocks being negative today(which is not many since we are in a bear market). So being positive today isn't some kind of badge of honor but it's a badge of shame.
 
Short 3 min. video from Wu Wa of Shanghai GF drone footage of completed vehicle loading area taken earlier today (June 17th). The title says it all.
Here's the Fremont flyover from 3 days ago.

The poster noticed more truck carriers than before, more S/X in the logistic lots having more cars, and the newly built conveyer bridge perhaps online as you no longer see body in white being transferred in open air.