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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Had a weird thought about Teslas and value today.

Since our power prices are fairly fixed and from hydroelectric, any time gas prices increase, the value of my car goes up. For every $1 gas prices go up, I save about $2600 over the next 5 years (15000 miles / 28 MPH * 5 years * $1). This isn't the amount I save versus an ICE vehicle, it's the additional savings due to rising gas prices. Average price of gas is about $2.50 higher than it was when I bought my car.

Another way of putting it. If I'd bought an ICE vehicle, my operating costs would have increased by $1340/ year. If gas prices stay this high, that's a $6,700 increase in operating expenses.

I know a lot of regions energy prices are on the rise so it's likely in some areas (Northern California has seen some pretty big rate spikes), but I don't think energy prices have risen as much as gas prices even in those areas.

Recently I stayed at a friends home and they had Tesla solar (they love it). The biggest reason they bought it is because in NorCal PG&E shuts off power for days at a time to prevent fires and their block is one of the first off and last back on. But as a side-effect, their cost of power is more-or-less fixed while PG&E's rates swing all over the place. As fuel prices creep up, folks like them have a massive incentive to switch to EVs as the incremental cost of powering a car is near zero.

Rising energy rates also increases the appeal of home solar significantly.


I know... preaching to the choir here. The recent rate shifts just got me thinking about how much more aware people—not just Tesla people, everyone—are becoming of the impact of fuel and energy cost increases in their lives. Tesla is well positioned to benefit from what seems to the perfect storm. Even if their competition had offerings which were as good, nobody else is ready to service the flood of demand as the cost of their existing vehicle keeps going up.
 
Hope that doesnt stop people from paying for and installing existing heat pumps today to cut off gas consumption 2022 instead of 2024+

We just installed our system in Northern California, a daikin fit one. Will pay for itself in 9 years assuming similar gas price rise as observed since 2019, and no more gas use from our heating as of this month.
Ugh, it’s time to stop with the “Will pay for itself” commentary. The planet is burning up—we should be paying MORE, NOW, to get off out fossil fuel addiction.

BTW, we’ve only got one usable planet.


Hope that doesnt stop people from paying for and installing existing heat pumps today to cut off gas consumption 2022 instead of 2024+

We just installed our system in Northern California, a daikin fit one. Will pay for itself in 9 years assuming similar gas price rise as observed since 2019, and no more gas use from our heating as of this month.
 
Ugh, it’s time to stop with the “Will pay for itself” commentary. The planet is burning up—we should be paying MORE, NOW, to get off out fossil fuel addiction.

BTW, we’ve only got one usable planet.
The problem is that the rate increases are not going to pay for "get off of fossil fuels". They are going to fund the "slow the transition away from fossil fuels as long as possible" group. So "pay for itself" is really the only way to deprive the fossil fuel group of funds.
 
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Let's Get Ziggy With It!

Found this on Inside EV's... Funny or not, it's a unique idea!

Ever tired of driving around trying to find a parking space. Do you ever get tired of driving around to find a charging station? There’s a solution for both. An autonomous robot named Ziggy. With the app for Ziggy, you can summon Ziggy to reserve a parking space for you. Once at the parking space, Ziggy will then pull out, and allow you to park. You can then use Ziggy to charge your EV. A unique EV of the Week. Check out the video below. -John @ Mobility EVo

Cameras on all four sides
A headlight and a tail light
A safety sensor band
Large screens on both sides
All-Wheel Steering
--------------------
Can't even imagine how this will be abused.

Here's a video:
 
Let's Get Ziggy With It!

Found this on Inside EV's... Funny or not, it's a unique idea!

Ever tired of driving around trying to find a parking space. Do you ever get tired of driving around to find a charging station? There’s a solution for both. An autonomous robot named Ziggy. With the app for Ziggy, you can summon Ziggy to reserve a parking space for you. Once at the parking space, Ziggy will then pull out, and allow you to park. You can then use Ziggy to charge your EV. A unique EV of the Week. Check out the video below. -John @ Mobility EVo

Cameras on all four sides
A headlight and a tail light
A safety sensor band
Large screens on both sides
All-Wheel Steering
--------------------
Can't even imagine how this will be abused.

Here's a video:
But does it have LIDAR?!?
 
Hope that doesnt stop people from paying for and installing existing heat pumps today to cut off gas consumption 2022 instead of 2024+

We just installed our system in Northern California, a daikin fit one. Will pay for itself in 9 years assuming similar gas price rise as observed since 2019, and no more gas use from our heating as of this month.
I am guessing it's only talking about locally manufactured heat pumps. The criteria set by DOE have long been met by foreign heat pump manufacturers like Daikin, fujitsu, mitsubishi and some chinese ones with HSPF > 12.0

The prototype delivers 100% heating at 5°F at double the efficiency, and 70% to 80% heating at -5°F and -10°F.
 
Except.......that's already accounted for in the Forward P/E. In fact, I would say the Forward P/E of Amazon is materially affecting the S&P's P/E ratios to the upside, simply because of one time items. Ford's as well. The S&P TTM and Forward P/E's would be lower if you took out those one time items.

Amazon had a huge write down because of Rivian. That's a one time item that doesn't really reflect it's business, but it still gets counted in the S&P TTM and Forward P/Es. Most of tech's earnings decline for the past two quarters has been because of one thing and one thing only......Apple's change to it's advertising revenue. Eventually that works it's way through all of tech's earnings and the decline flatlines from that factor.

If anything, I actually expect a good part of tech to have an earnings rebound in second half of 2022 even if there is a small recession, as Apple's change will have finally finished working it's way out of tech's earnings
Awesome name. That is all.
 

2021-22 Chevrolet Bolt EV & EUV Discounts Are Unreal: Over 1,100% Off​

CarsDirect figured out a way to save over $20,000 by combining various incentives,​


With high gas prices these should be flying out the door. I know this is old news but I really find this situation with the Bolt discounts perplexing.

Are they really so damaged image wise in the minds of consumers that they need to discount so deeply.

This while Tesla keeps raising prices.


I think GM is going to be in deep trouble shortly if gas stays high with mostly large trucks/SUV's to sell, and limited volumes of EV's, some discounted below cost.
 
I was thinking about the E-stang recall today. If Ford can't get the EV Mustang even remotely right......what do we think the Hummer EV rollout is gonna look like?


Well they just announced they're hiking the price over 6k, so I guess it's going well.... or at least by whatever definition GM is using for that term on a >100k vehicle that takes the # of batteries 3 or 4 normal cars would need and they hardly build any of...


Not sure what prompted the Head of Investor Relations at Tesla to post this on Twitter today.
Maybe it's nothing but I am going to take this as good news about margins. 😁

Optimistically something about 4680 cost savings or something.... pessimistically trying to say something positive about the job cuts since they cut expenses.
 
Generally don’t post YouTube videos here or even watch very much YouTube, but stumbled across a good Rivian test drive/ misadventure from the Now You Know guys about a camping trip in the Rivian. I watched it because it was very similar to a trip I did in my Model Y last year.


For the TLDW folks, they were seriously disappointed with the non-Tesla charging network and had some significant road trip issues with the Rivian. Kind of disappointing that in 2022 EA and EVGo are still so unreliable. I suspect when Tesla eventually opens up their charging network anyone who road trips at all is going to switch.

Also… lots of funny commentary about how YouTubers pander to car makers so they can get access to test vehicles.
 
If Cybertruck starts exactly 1 year behind Berlin, about 4,000 reservation holders would have their trucks by now. By the end of summer production should be well over 2,000/ week.

Hmm. At 65k, maybe Cybertruck in the late Fall for me. Hopefully we get a 1Q Cybertruck start. Looking at Berlin and Texas ramp ups seems like Tesla is in a good position to start pushing hard on their next production start(s).