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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Given what we know about Gigapress, structural battery packs, battery production (every major global supplier selling to Tesla, multiple form factors), plus Tesla logistics excellence...
I rather suspect it may be slightly disingenuous for you to say "Not sure what prompted..."
Based on my recent review of your posting history I can only applaud your[false] modesty.
We’ve known of these productivity measures for some time now. My point is about why he decided to post that comment yesterday unprompted/unsolicited. It’s possible it has nothing to do with Q2 but I found it odd that he piped up about it. I’m imagining he may have come out of a meeting where productivity performance was discussed . . . or maybe he was just bored and wanted to post something on Twitter. 🤷‍♂️
 
I remember at the time they say they bought Bitcoin for "more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash." Yeah that worked out great. I hope they had some kind of exit strategy for Bitcoin. I hope someone asks them about this ridiculous decision in the earnings call.
I might be a bit too emotional right now but if they are buying this “dip” I might have to consider selling. Maybe thats a stupid thing to do. I dont know. But please dont be daft and dig yourself a bigger hole than its already is, leadership.

@Artful Dodger I see you are passing out Disagrees again. When BTC is trashing the EPS like it is right now, I think you’ll have a hard time arguing this is not investor related.

No, it is not fundamental related but ask yourself this: if they are not willing to admit this was a mistake, whats gonna prevent them from making other similar not-a-mistake? How long before a one-time impairment loss becomes a recurring theme?
 
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It wasn't just macros.
Well, it definitely wasn't Q4 earnings. Based on those, and 2022 projections, we should have stayed over 1200+ easy. And Covid lockdown in China didn't happen until after a massive SP drop, and has no long term impact on Tesla. Maybe you're talking about the Twitter deal and Elon selling shares last year, but again, those were after/before the Q1 SP crash.
 
I might be a bit too emotional right now but if they are buying this “dip” I might have to consider selling. Maybe thats a stupid thing to do. I dont know. But please dont be daft and dig yourself a bigger hole than its already is, leadership.

@Artful Dodger I see you are passing out Disagrees again. When BTC is trashing the EPS like it is right now, I think you’ll have a hard time arguing this is not investor related.

No, it is not fundamental related but ask yourself this: if they are not willing to admit this was a mistake, whats gonna prevent them from making other similar not-a-mistake? How long before a one-time impairment loss become a recurring theme?
I don't support Teslas involvement with BTC, but volatile investments go up and down. Maybe long term btc will be fine, but calling it a mistake because it dropped is like saying those who bought Tesla at 1000+ for making a mistake. The coin has been around for 20+ years so I don't think it'll just go away...tho many people thought btc us going to zero after every major crash and yet it's still not zero.

Now I do believe most cryptos are trash pump n dumps for genZ but that's a different topic.
 
So why even bring up Ford and GM, other than their support from the US government?

How do you expect us to talk EV's without discussing the leader in EV's?

As to Ford, they have done a very "big brotherly" thing by including a Tesla charge adapter with every F-150 Lightning to rescue the hordes of Tesla drivers who couldn't quite make it to the nearest Supercharger. We know how often this happens, stranded by the side of the road with zero mile of range, so we all owe Ford a big debt of gratitude.

I suggest we declare a special day called "Stranded Tesla Day" whereby all Tesla owners take the day off from work and purposefully drive our cars until they hit zero miles of range and then wait for a Lightning to drive by and rescue us. This should help them feel better about the high price they had to pay and make them feel superior. We should get at least 25 miles of range for every hour they are able to park next to us with their handy life-line and there won't be too many Lightings out in the wild so you might want to take two or three day off work before trying this. Bonus points if you are able to do this in an area that doesn't have a Supercharger for 150 miles in any direction. This will require them to park next to you for around 4-6 hours and facilitate getting to know them better.
 
Yep. Did that last year. But if the SP doesn't rise later this year, there will be no solar roof for me next year.
I am having two heat pumps installed on my home with full heating and air conditioning throughout the house they're doing it as I write this. Heat pumps solar panels and two Teslas I'm pretty set
 
I don't support Teslas involvement with BTC, but volatile investments go up and down. Maybe long term btc will be fine, but calling it a mistake because it dropped is like saying those who bought Tesla at 1000+ for making a mistake. The coin has been around for 20+ years so I don't think it'll just go away...tho many people thought btc us going to zero after every major crash and yet it's still not zero.

Now I do believe most cryptos are trash pump n dumps for genZ but that's a different topic.
In my trading circle, we like to say “if your account goes down, nothing you say matters.” I can argue that BTC has zero value. Made this same argument over a year ago at 60k. Still saying it now. If tomorrow Elon says we are buying baseball cards to diversify our assets, I suspect that wont be as earth shattering as it should be since many are considering investing in non income producing, unprofitable assets a “thing.”

I said it before and I will say it again: I look around this forum and I see smart people. Thats one thing giving me peace of mind during volatile times. When I look around the crypto space, what do I see? Extremists. Crypto “bros”. Pie in the sky ponzies. How am I going to reconcile the BTC purchase against my principles?
 
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And comically, at the end of the video they talk about how they’re excited for the F lightening… not sure why they think it would be any different. Unless there’s a new F charging network that I’m not aware of.

With regards to BTC; I feel like the BTC pirates are going to use this long weekend to manipulate a crash to the next technical support (which is ~12k I believe). Hopefully the master of coin has a plan (other than BTFD).

I decided to watch my first "Now You Know" in a long time when I saw they went camping with their RT1. Jesse made it very clear the reason they were so harsh on Rivian for not having a useable charge network was two-fold:

1) The Rivian is billed as an "adventure vehicle", this means trips to remote areas should be considered a primary purpose, unlike other EV's that are purchased for daily commuting.
2) Rivian has made a big deal about their Adventure Charging Network that still doesn't exist.

Other EV's might be fine with home charging and using the non-Tesla DC charge networks occasionally, but not a vehicle billed specifically as an adventure vehicle.
 
In my trading circle, we like to say “if your account goes down, nothing you say matters.” I can argue that BTC has zero value. Made this same argument over a year ago at 60k. Still saying it now. If tomorrow Elon says we are buying baseball cards to diversify our asset, I suspect that wont be as earth shattering as it should be since many are considering investing in non income producing, unprofitable assets a “thing.”

I said it before and I will say it again: I look around this forum and I see smart people. Thats one thing giving me peace of mind during volatile times. When I look around the crypto space, what do I see? Extremists. Crypto “bros”. Pie in the sky ponzies. How am I going to reconcile the BTC purchase against my principles?
That's because you go to wallstreetbets type crypto forums who btw sees Tesla as the og meme stock. There are many smart level headed people who sees at least BTC as a legit investment. I mean CNBC has a sector dedicated entirely to the more legit cryptos vs the pump n dump trash.
 
In my trading circle, we like to say “if your account goes down, nothing you say matters.” I can argue that BTC has zero value. Made this same argument over a year ago at 60k. Still saying it now. If tomorrow Elon says we are buying baseball cards to diversify our asset, I suspect that wont be as earth shattering as it should be since many are considering investing in non income producing, unprofitable assets a “thing.”

I am a crypto agnostic. I just don't know much about it.
Since I can't evaluate it like I can a corporation, I will likely never invest in crypto. I don't trash talk it because as I said, I don't understand the crypto space.
I don't try to understand the crypto space because I already found gold with TSLA.

I too don't like to see the impairment impacts on earnings but I console myself with these 2 thoughts:

1. Tesla has Bitcoin (Digital Assets on the Balance Sheet) classified as a Long-Term Asset. They are likely looking 5-10 years out. The silly accounting rules where you write down the asset but not write-up the asset is partially what creates our Bitcoin drama. I guess I will assess Tesla's wisdom (or lack thereof) in this investment 5 years from now.

2. This is the most important point that has me at ease with this investment. With 1.5m cars sold this year, 2.4m next year and 3.5m in 2024, Tesla will be sitting on about $80b in cash at the end of 2024, So taking a $1.5b flyer on Bitcoin is a small portion of their 2024 cash balance. When they reach a $400b to $500b cash balance in 2030, it's a rounding error.
 
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In my trading circle, we like to say “if your account goes down, nothing you say matters.” I can argue that BTC has zero value. Made this same argument over a year ago at 60k. Still saying it now. If tomorrow Elon says we are buying baseball cards to diversify our asset, I suspect that wont be as earth shattering as it should be since many are considering investing in non income producing, unprofitable assets a “thing.”

I said it before and I will say it again: I look around this forum and I see smart people. Thats one thing giving me peace of mind during volatile times. When I look around the crypto space, what do I see? Extremists. Crypto “bros”. Pie in the sky ponzies. How am I going to reconcile the BTC purchase against my principles?
Could be worse, at least Tesla didn't buy monkey JPEGs...
 
I am a crypto agnostic. I just don't know much about it.
Since I can't evaluate it like I can a corporation, I will likely never invest in crypto. I don't trash talk it because as I said, I don't understand the crypto space.
I don't try to understand the crypto space because I already found gold with TSLA.

I too don't like to see the impairment impacts on earnings but I console myself with these 2 thoughts:

1. Tesla has Bitcoin (Digital Assets on the Balance Sheet) classified as a Long-Term Asset. They are likely looking 5-10 years out. The silly accounting rules where you write down the asset but not write-up the asset is partially what creates this drama. I guess I will assess Tesla's wisdom (or lack thereof) in this investment 5 years from now.

2. This is the most important point that has me at ease with this investment. With 1.5m cars sold this year, 2.4m next year and 3.5m in 2024, Tesla will be sitting on about $80b in cash at the end of 2024, So taking a $1.5b flyer on Bitcoin is a small portion of their 2024 cash balance. When they reach a $400b to $500b cash balance in 2030, it's a rounding error.
What was our conclusion with teslas deferred tax credit? I don't see these impairment charges as anything material because the deferred tax credit when realized also does nothing to the stock. Might as well have accounting rule fight it out and neutralize this q.
 
I might be a bit too emotional right now but if they are buying this “dip” I might have to consider selling. Maybe thats a stupid thing to do. I dont know. But please dont be daft and dig yourself a bigger hole than its already is, leadership.

@Artful Dodger I see you are passing out Disagrees again. When BTC is trashing the EPS like it is right now, I think you’ll have a hard time arguing this is not investor related.

No, it is not fundamental related but ask yourself this: if they are not willing to admit this was a mistake, whats gonna prevent them from making other similar not-a-mistake? How long before a one-time impairment loss becomes a recurring theme?

I think you are making a mountain out of a molehill considering that BTC is such a small percentage of Tesla's total cash on hand and, once an impairment is written off, it's written off. What I mean by that is if BTC goes sky high again and then crashes back to 18K, they won't have to write off another loss because it' already carried on the book at a very low cost basis. And they will not book a profit until they sell it at a price above the lowest value that asset attained in a previous quarter.

This is potentially a valuable tool to use at the right moment. I tend to take Tesla at their word when they indicated it's a long-term strategic hedge and I look forward to seeing how the decide to use it to their advantage, if they ever do. If not, no big deal, not everything works out as intended. It would have to be about four times as large as it is for this to bother me at all, and more than that as Tesla's cash reserves grow.
 
How do you expect us to talk EV's without discussing the leader in EV's?

As to Ford, they have done a very "big brotherly" thing by including a Tesla charge adapter with every F-150 Lightning to rescue the hordes of Tesla drivers who couldn't quite make it to the nearest Supercharger. We know how often this happens, stranded by the side of the road with zero mile of range, so we all owe Ford a big debt of gratitude.

I suggest we declare a special day called "Stranded Tesla Day" whereby all Tesla owners take the day off from work and purposefully drive our cars until they hit zero miles of range and then wait for a Lightning to drive by and rescue us. This should help them feel better about the high price they had to pay and make them feel superior. We should get at least 25 miles of range for every hour they are able to park next to us with their handy life-line and there won't be too many Lightings out in the wild so you might want to take two or three day off work before trying this. Bonus points if you are able to do this in an area that doesn't have a Supercharger for 150 miles in any direction. This will require them to park next to you for around 4-6 hours and facilitate getting to know them better.
Serious question here:

If the Lighting is able to charge a Tesla 25 miles/hr, where is it pulling the power from? Wouldn't that drain the Lighting's own charge?
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
Serious question here:

If the Lighting is able to charge a Tesla 25 miles/hr, where is it pulling the power from? Wouldn't that drain the Lighting's own charge?

Yes, it would drain the Lightning's available kWh's down by approximately 15%-20% more than the kWh's added to the vehicle receiving the charge. But since EV's normally have a lot more charge than they need at any given moment, it's generally not a big problem. The largest battery available in the Lightning is 135 kWh.
 
Serious question here:

If the Lighting is able to charge a Tesla 25 miles/hr, where is it pulling the power from? Wouldn't that drain the Lighting's own charge?
It's a troll move by F to generate headlines. In the real world, a ford has a higher chance of being stranded because their charging network doesn't work. I think what Tesla owners should do is drive up to a F lightning that is stranded and tow it to a charging station.
 
If Tesla were to buy more BTC, would it then be the weighted average purchase price that is compared to market price in determining the P&L charge? So, with rough math, if they bought twice as much, the charge was be 1/2 what it would be without further purchases?
In a word: No.
I think you are thinking of loss as a percentage instead of as a dollar value. 1/2 the fractional loss on twice the amount is still the same loss.
Buying at current price does not negate the loss of the previous purchase, so that impairment still exists.
The only case in which it might help would be if they could buy at a price lower than the impairment reference price and have the price stay up thereafter. However, I don't think this is possible since BTC is continuous as opposed to stocks with a daily closing price.
 
If Tesla were to buy more BTC, would it then be the weighted average purchase price that is compared to market price in determining the P&L charge? So, with rough math, if they bought twice as much, the charge was be 1/2 what it would be without further purchases?

Well, Tesla made the decision to buy BTC in the past. Just like @dl003 , not my piece of cake.
Heard no other argument having BTC, than it being good against inflation and about its value because of the mining process and that... is not good enough for me. Even if it would go 10x its current value, crypto cannot convince me.
Not visiting any crypto fora to read why I am completely wrong in my thinking, by the way.

But hey, I am an investor and all the positive of TSLA outweighed and still outweighs this (in my eyes) not so wise decision of Tesla management.
However, please do not speculate about Tesla buying more BTC, it's physically and psychologically a sunny weekend here in Hilversum and I would prefer it to stay that way.