Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

BTC purchase was speculation, pure and simple. I didn’t think it was the best use of cash when BTC was at 50,000 and certainly not now.

A billion dollars could have paid for a lot of superchargers, service support staff, or someone to pick up the phone when the press is trying to get answers about Tesla email leaks and damaging rumors.

Even geniuses make mistakes.
I know this from experience

Yeah, that’s not going to fly with me. TSLA purchase was speculation for many of us here. Guess what? We were right.

When finance is decentralized and banks cease to exist in the form we currently recognize, as Elon is *speculating*, I hope we’re both around so I can remind you of your post.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here’s a thought. Maybe it’s your mistake. Looks like a mistake today, but when BTC was sitting at over $50k - hmmm…not so much. And didn’t they sell some of that BTC at a profit?

I’ve heard lots of this was a mistake that was a mistake for years now, but nobody ever waits long enough to see where it all ends up and then freely admits, dang, they were right all along.

People need to be less excited and willing to get on the judgement train.

People commonly make the mistake of thinking of $BTC as digital gold (a store of value): it is not. The value of Bitcoin to Tesla is in it's liquidity, and the ability to convert/transfer 100s of millions of dollars worth of assets from one jurisdiction to another quickly, regardless of current time of day, weekend, or holiday, because it doesn't go through local banks. This mitigates much of the local restrictions on banking (such as minimum clearing time delays, xfer amount caps, onerous fees) from affecting Tesla's liquidity. Only important if you're building a large multinational corporation.

BTC is all about the 'speed-of-money' for Tesla, and I expect it stems from Elon's larger plan for disrupting banking, as he proposed to the Pay Pal BoD back in the day (but was turned down). That day is coming. Further, I expect the plan to be wound into needs for currency on Mars, which will definately be digital (Ariescoin will definately be xfer'd thru AriesLink satellites). Think 'long game'.

The arcane U.S. accounting rules regarding 'impairments' will eventually be brought into the 21st century, especially now that the SEC and FED are moving into this space:

Federal Reserve System Takes First Step Toward Creating Its Own Digital Currency

On Jan. 20, 2022, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) issued the Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation paper (Paper) to discuss how a potential U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) could improve the U.S.

www.natlawreview.com

Paging @jbcarioca @The Accountant

TL;dr Don't sweat the small stuff; don't fall for the FUD

Cheers!

 

[Brn2Run]

People commonly make the mistake of thinking of $BTC as digital gold (a store of value): it is not. The value of Bitcoin to Tesla is in it's liquidity, and the ability to convert/transfer 100s of millions of dollars worth of assets from one jurisdiction to another quickly, regardless of current time of day, weekend, or holiday, because it doesn't go through local banks. This mitigates much of the local restrictions on banking (such as minimum clearing time delays, xfer amount caps, onerous fees) from affecting Tesla's liquidity. Only important if you're building a large multinational corporation.

BTC is all about the 'speed-of-money' for Tesla, and I expect it stems from Elon's larger plan for disrupting banking, as he proposed to the Pay Pal BoD back in the day (but was turned down). That day is coming. Further, I expect the plan to be wound into needs for currency on Mars, which will definately be digital (Ariescoin will definately be xfer'd thru AriesLink satellites). Think 'long game'.

The arcane U.S. accounting rules regarding 'impairments' will eventually be brought into the 21st century, especially now that the SEC and FED are moving into this space:

Federal Reserve System Takes First Step Toward Creating Its Own Digital Currency

On Jan. 20, 2022, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) issued the Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation paper (Paper) to discuss how a potential U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) could improve the U.S.

www.natlawreview.com

Paging @jbcarioca @The Accountant

TL;dr Don't sweat the small stuff; don't fall for the FUD

Cheers!

I can see the possibilities for some of those companies who has borrowed against their BTC holdings to be Margincalled next week. Also called Margin-coined.

 

[JustMe]

People commonly make the mistake of thinking of $BTC as digital gold (a store of value): it is not. The value of Bitcoin to Tesla is in it's liquidity, and the ability to convert/transfer 100s of millions of dollars worth of assets from one jurisdiction to another quickly, regardless of current time of day, weekend, or holiday, because it doesn't go through local banks. This mitigates much of the local restrictions on banking (such as minimum clearing time delays, xfer amount caps, onerous fees) from affecting Tesla's liquidity. Only important if you're building a large multinational corporation.

BTC is all about the 'speed-of-money' for Tesla, and I expect it stems from Elon's larger plan for disrupting banking, as he proposed to the Pay Pal BoD back in the day (but was turned down). That day is coming. Further, I expect the plan to be wound into needs for currency on Mars, which will definately be digital (Ariescoin will definately be xfer'd thru AriesLink satellites). Think 'long game'.

The arcane U.S. accounting rules regarding 'impairments' will eventually be brought into the 21st century, especially now that the SEC and FED are moving into this space:

Federal Reserve System Takes First Step Toward Creating Its Own Digital Currency

On Jan. 20, 2022, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) issued the Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation paper (Paper) to discuss how a potential U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) could improve the U.S.

www.natlawreview.com

Paging @jbcarioca @The Accountant

TL;dr Don't sweat the small stuff; don't fall for the FUD

Cheers!

the justifications you give are undermined by the fact that the values of cryptocurrencies are so volatile and unpredictable. Imagine the dollar increasing in value by 100% in one year and then crashing by more than 50% the next. For no fundamental reason other than cycles of speculative buying and panic selling. Here we are at the cusp of economic crisis because annual inflation is 8%. Cryptocurrencies can change their values by as much in a single day.

It seems to me that the problems with cryptocurrencies dwarf the problems they are supposed to solve.

 

[lascavarian]

the justifications you give are undermined by the fact that the values of cryptocurrencies are so volatile and unpredictable. Imagine the dollar increasing in value by 100% in one year and then crashing by more than 50% the next. For no fundamental reason other than cycles of speculative buying and panic selling. Here we are at the cusp of economic crisis because annual inflation is 8%. Cryptocurrencies can change their values by as much in a single day.

It seems to me that the problems with cryptocurrencies dwarf the problems they are supposed to solve.

Ironically, the vast losses in crypto may ease the pressure to raise rates as billions in assets vanish and liquidity dries up a bit. Here is an excellent application for the “irony flag”.

Now is a wonderful time to buy equities that deliver attractive products in high demand. Bonus points for those that deliver with high efficiency.

Go Tesla.

 

[dm28997]

So you have an 8 year old Tesla and another newer one with FSD?

Our first Model S was a P85 2013 which is when I first started driving Teslas. Our 2016 Model S has FSD as does our MX and M3. I loved seeing the incredible auto driving advancements all the way to FSD beta. Besides never buying anything other than a Tesla I also would also only buy a Tesla with FSD

 

[Tommy O]

Assuming tesla has not been buying more BTC, then we already know the worst case outcome: a loss of approximately $1.5B (not factoring in the profit on their sale last year).

I can’t predict what will happen to BTC or crypto in general in the long run. If it’s widely adopted, BTC will go way, waaaay up. If not, then that stinks for tesla. But it’s not a huge deal in the scheme of things.

 

[Artful Dodger]

the values of cryptocurrencies are so volatile and unpredictable. Imagine the dollar increasing in value by 100% in one year

That's not the way Tesla intends to use crypto. It will sell in one currency while buying in another simultaneously; there is no appreciable lag during which currency fluctuations will have a material affect.

Again, don't think of crypto as 'digital gold', think of it as quantum tunnelling through the international banking 'pay wall'.

c.f. Pipes vs Buckets.

Cheers!

 

[larmor]

Ironically, the vast losses in crypto may ease the pressure to raise rates as billions in assets vanish and liquidity dries up a bit. Here is an excellent application for the “irony flag”.

Now is a wonderful time to buy equities that deliver attractive products in high demand. Bonus points for those that deliver with high efficiency.

Go Tesla.

Now is a wonderful time to buy equities that deliver expensive products which are already sold prior to being made. Bonus points for those that deliver with high margins.

FTFY

 

[UnknownSoldier]

One of us should attend the shareholders meeting and ask Elon point blank why Tesla continues to hold BTC when the original hypothesis, "as a hedge for inflation," has proven to be completely incorrect. Elon is supposed to be a scientist, even he should be able to see the BTC experiment is unsuccessful and should be canceled immediately.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Tesla bought BTC for exactly the reason stated in their 10K. They did it, "to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity."

With Elon and company, you don't need to read between the lines. Just read the lines.

Elon was reasonably explicit in his relevant tweet as well:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1362600676174557186

Trading USD for BTC was not an investment, it was moving from one form of cash to another.

 

[MABMAB]

Our first Model S was a P85 2013 which is when I first started driving Teslas. Our 2016 Model S has FSD as does our MX and M3. I loved seeing the incredible auto driving advancements all the way to FSD beta. Besides never buying anything other than a Tesla I also would also only buy a Tesla with FSD

THIS! Thank you. Fully agree.

 

[mongo]

One of us should attend the shareholders meeting and ask Elon point blank why Tesla continues to hold BTC when the original hypothesis, "as a hedge for inflation," has proven to be completely incorrect. Elon is supposed to be a scientist, even he should be able to see the BTC experiment is unsuccessful and should be canceled immediately.

Do you have a reference link/ source for that "quote"?

He has said the opposite :"As a general principle, for those looking for advice from this thread, it is generally better to own physical things like a home or stock in companies you think make good products, than dollars when inflation is high.
I still own & won’t sell my Bitcoin, Ethereum or Doge fwiw."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503222294277197829

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now is a wonderful time to buy equities that deliver expensive products which are already sold prior to being made. Bonus points for those that deliver with high margins.

FTFY

Yes, it's 'survival of the fittest' right now, and Tesla is well-positioned for this test. Here's why:

7 Factors that could kill Companies in next few years | Sasha Yanshin Live on Youtube

1. Long-term Debt
2. High Discount Rates
3. Cash Burners
4. Unsustainable Loss Makers
5. Pandemic Boomers
6. Non-Essential Luxury Goods
7. Death by Inflation

Cheers!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Elon was reasonably explicit in his relevant tweet as well:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1362600676174557186

Trading USD for BTC was not an investment, it was moving from one form of cash to another.

The form of cash known as "USD" is known for retaining it's value, whereas the form of cash known as "BTC" is down 70% from ATH.

BTC is not in any way, shape, or form stable enough to be used as "cash" and by that I mean used as a currency, whose purpose in a modern economy is exchange for goods and services. There is no way to properly ascertain value of good and services when the medium of exchange can vary in value by 70% in a matter of months. This is why USD is the world's "reserve currency" because no matter what you can expect a dollar buys a dollar's worth of goods and services even if the world is in a recession.

I don't expect Elon to be a trained economist but surely Zach understands how modern monetary systems work and why BTC is not "cash"?

 

[Skryll]

The form of cash known as "USD" is known for retaining it's value, whereas the form of cash known as "BTC" is down 70% from ATH.

BTC is not in any way, shape, or form stable enough to be used as "cash" and by that I mean used as a currency, whose purpose in a modern economy is exchange for goods and services. There is no way to properly ascertain value of good and services when the medium of exchange can vary in value by 70% in a matter of months. This is why USD is the world's "reserve currency" because no matter what you can expect a dollar buys a dollar's worth of goods and services even if the world is in a recession.

I don't expect Elon to be a trained economist but surely Zach understands how modern monetary systems work and why BTC is not "cash"?

What does $100K you had in a cash account 5 years ago buy you today vs what bitcoin from 5 years ago would buy you today ?

You underestimate the compound inflation on the cash.

 

[JustMe]

What does $100K you had in a cash account 5 years ago buy you today vs what bitcoin from 5 years ago would buy you today ?

You underestimate the compound inflation on the cash.

Interesting point.

Now do five months. Or five days…

 

[insaneoctane]

They have a Semi on order. I don't know how they plan to use it to test and report on it.

My money is on getting a sweet trailer for RV/camping and then letting FSD drive them to their destination!

 

[Bet TSLA]

The form of cash known as "USD" is known for retaining it's value, whereas the form of cash known as "BTC" is down 70% from ATH.

When you start out with patently false beliefs, you can't use logic to get anywhere useful.

The cash known as USD has been losing value since forever. Try looking at any random inflation calculator (e.g. Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2022). How far it's down from its all time high is just ridiculous.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Interesting point.

Now do five months. Or five days…

Why? Tesla wasn't speculating in BTC, they were moving cash to another form. The relentless grind that makes USD tend towards less worth is avoided. Short term volatility of BTC is the down side. It would be utterly irrelevant if it weren't for accounting rules that haven't kept up with the times.