If earnings are hit by $0.60 a share, wouldn't the stock be hit by $0.60 * P/E ratio? or about $52 a share? Stock is currently $650 with earnings of 7.40. If earnings were 6.80, with current P/E of 89, the stock would be $598
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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If earnings are hit by $0.60 a share, wouldn't the stock be hit by $0.60 * P/E ratio? or about $52 a share? Stock is currently $650 with earnings of 7.40. If earnings were 6.80, with current P/E of 89, the stock would be $598
StapleGun
Member
Only if the market expects the loss to occur in every future quarter as well. For that to happen Tesla would need to continue purchasing a similar amount of BTC and BTC would need to continue falling at a similar rate. Both seem rather unlikely.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
You really don't think there is anything you are smarter/better/wiser than Elon at? I feel sorry for you if that's the case.
What's so hard to figure about Elon not being the worlds smartest at everything?
Seeing two of our most prolific posters here (not you) never ever admitting that anything Elon or Tesla does even could be a mistake is worrying because it makes me wonder how smart their other opinions really are.
The worst thing about the BTC was they did a secondary capital raise at a pretty low pre-split price that they didn’t need to do, and then they bought the BTC not too long after that because they had too much cash.
TSLA is up at least 500% from there and BTC is down whatever it’s down.
TSLA is up at least 500% from there and BTC is down whatever it’s down.
Elon even admitted in interviews himself he was wrong in retrospect sometimes. But as he said the goal is to try to be less wrong. At his defense, at the time with the information he had he always tried to take the best most informed decision he can. BTC could have been an edge to inflation when the FED was printing money and he took the right decision at the time. I bought my first GBTC in January 2021 about 2 months before Elon did because I thought it would follow the commodity investment and act has a refuge value against inflation but I sold in February 2022 when I saw it was dropping like a rock. I took that money and investment more In TSLA at 650. Elon should follow my lead once again
just trying to be less wrong everyday.
Do I think I have a better understanding of finance than Elon? The co-founder of PayPal? No.
I actually met Elon a couple of times when myself and a small team worked for Tesla to develop an emergency response guide for first responders for Tesla vehicle extrication and ventilation of Solar Roof.
I’ve worked in the fire service for 20 years. Ive probably cut hundreds of cars and dozens of roofs (as did everyone on that team); yet Elon left us all feeling like he had a well developed understanding of the project we were working on.
No need to feel sorry for me, in fact I am grateful that I know ‘what I don’t know’.
I don’t have a finance background so I trust the founder of PayPal knows better how to manage his companies cash reserves than I.
It’s worth noting that many people who have a finance background see a great value and strong future for crypto. Perhaps your pity is better spent on them.
StapleGun
Member
Have you told that story here in more detail before? I would love to read.
It was refreshing to hear Elon note the problems with Btc specifically. It is deflationary meaning in opposition to growth and expansion. Other coins avoid this flaw.Elon even admitted in interviews himself he was wrong in retrospect sometimes. But as he said the goal is to try to be less wrong. At his defense, at the time with the information he had he always tried to take the best most informed decision he can. BTC could have been an edge to inflation when the FED was printing money and he took the right decision at the time. I bought my first GBTC in January 2021 about 2 months before Elon did because I thought it would follow the commodity investment and act has a refuge value against inflation but I sold in February 2022 when I saw it was dropping like a rock. I took that money and investment more In TSLA at 650. Elon should follow my lead once again
He noted the irony of Doge (a joke coin) being a better solution.
Btc is no longer accepted. Doge is. Doge still has issues.
This is clear for all to see. The less wrong position is to avoid Btc.
Could Btc be fixed? Possibly but there is no central authority by design so there is no process to repair the wrongness of the current reality.
Kimbal has also stated that there was insufficient research into Btc.
In this time of tightening liquidity the various flaws of Btc are more problematic and the market is reacting IMO
No. I’m not much of a writer so I doubt I’d do it justice. It was one of the most satisfying opportunities in my career…and solar roof is an incredible product that I’m SUPER excited about.
That interaction with Elon and team was what initially spawned the model 3 purchase, then TSLA, then a model X.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Shanghai City Will Subsidize Pure EV Purchases With 10,000 Yuan Per Unit Until The End Of 2022 - ZubuBrothers
The Chinese city of Shanghai is going to be subsidizing the purchase of pure electric vehicles with 10,000 yuan per unit incentives, beginning in June and
zububrothers.com
10,000 Yuan is about $1,500 USD. The article goes on to say:
Made some slight changes to my estimates for this year's valuations using price to sales.
Q2 I revised back down from 305 to 250 based on China's slower restart.
For Q3 there are estimates that we are at a 1.5 million vehicle runrate so I went with 375k vehicles.
For Q4 I used an estimated growth from Q3 of 30% to come to 487.5k vehicles.
Overall this results in a lower annual production closer to 1.4 million vehicles.
Here are the corresponding production and revenue numbers. I over simplify and use an average revenue per vehicle. I did increase this by $1,000 to $59,000 revenue per vehicle produced. This is to reflect the price increases which will effect revenue per vehicle for the next several quarters
And here is share price estimates using corresponding Price to sales ratios:
For the low end we hit just over $617 per share which corresponds to just under a 10.3 price to sales ratio.
Using this backwards looking valuation method I see a reasonable price range for Tesla by year end between $833-$1,618.
I lean toward the optimistic and believe the macro factors that are heavily weighing on the stock will subside as we approach the end of the year.
By year end I believe we will be trading over $500 per share. Post-split of course
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | annual | |
| 2021 | 180 | 206 | 238 | 305 | 929 |
| 2022 | 305 | 250 | 375 | 487.5 | 1417.5 |
Q2 I revised back down from 305 to 250 based on China's slower restart.
For Q3 there are estimates that we are at a 1.5 million vehicle runrate so I went with 375k vehicles.
For Q4 I used an estimated growth from Q3 of 30% to come to 487.5k vehicles.
Overall this results in a lower annual production closer to 1.4 million vehicles.
Here are the corresponding production and revenue numbers. I over simplify and use an average revenue per vehicle. I did increase this by $1,000 to $59,000 revenue per vehicle produced. This is to reflect the price increases which will effect revenue per vehicle for the next several quarters
| 2022 | q1 | q2 | q3 | q4 |
| trailing production | 1054 | 1098 | 1235 | 1417.5 |
| trailing revenue | 62,190,000 | 64,782,000 | 72,865,000 | 83,632,500 |
And here is share price estimates using corresponding Price to sales ratios:
| price/sales | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
| 10.3 | 620 | 646 | 726 | 833 |
| 15 | 903 | 940 | 1,058 | 1,214 |
| 20 | 1,203 | 1,254 | 1,410 | 1,618 |
For the low end we hit just over $617 per share which corresponds to just under a 10.3 price to sales ratio.
Using this backwards looking valuation method I see a reasonable price range for Tesla by year end between $833-$1,618.
I lean toward the optimistic and believe the macro factors that are heavily weighing on the stock will subside as we approach the end of the year.
By year end I believe we will be trading over $500 per share. Post-split of course
damonbrodie
Member
I've been arguing with friends and family that own BTC that it's an insane "investment" and I've never touched it. Anyhow - the dead horse is well and truly beaten.
Tesla is one of the better performing stocks given its beta of over 2. There's frustration across the board, most people are scratching their head while at least we contribute some of the losses to Elon as some kind of solace. In reality, everyone is suffering no matter the execution or the behavior of the CEO.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
This thread is on page 69:
Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread
Show it some love and we can get it to 420.
Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread
Show it some love and we can get it to 420.
It's easy to say these things in hindsight - but at the time of the last capital raise (Dec-20) Tesla's stock price was far above what it had been the year before and Tesla had giant CapEx plans with two factories about to start construction. At that point in time Tesla hadn't even started selling the Shanghai model Y. Derisking those plans with a $5b capital raise was a worthwhile move IMO even if it turns out it wasn't needed - having the cash and not needing is far better than the alternative.
Additionally, the stock price at the time of the last capital raise is roughly where it is now - so it has had minimal dilutive effects as of today.
The BTC purchase was <10% of cash and cash equivalents - nothing to get excited about. It's amazing it draws such strong opinions on the board WRT the value of TSLA. And this accounting loss is just that, a writedown on paper, not a real loss unless Tesla sold its BTC. BTC is known to be volatile, I've ridden 3 waves of 70%+ drawdowns since I bought mine in early 2013.
A couple of examples of things that have more impact on Tesla's financials that are hardly discussed.
- Tesla's decision to not fx hedge sales would easily have a larger impact on the company (I have no idea if that has worked out in Tesla's favour or not) but no-one mentions it.
- The decision to remove the home charger as standard with new vehicle sales will probably save about $1b over the next couple of years ($275*c.4m vehicles)
Anybody who deals in or lives with multiple currencies know that your stated position is overly simplistic. The US$ fluctuates in purchasing power and value in other currencies. This article shows what is happening:
In ~2021 the US$ dropped below 50% in global trade basis. All evidence indicates that the drop is accelerating, right now in favor, mostly, of Euro and Yuan.
in this environment with increasing risk of US blocking foreign currencies and both US and many countries imposing regulations and fees inhibiting FX it is prudent to experiment with alternatives.
This is not an endorsement of any given method to facilitate international or even some domestic transactions.
Nolimits
Member
Just curious - Australia, Japan and singapore(?) just recently had their order page launched… sounds like it was received well in their respective countries. Their model Y/3 prices are without the hike? Anyone know if tesla launched with prices already up?
new_sneakers
Member
Australian Model 3 & Y prices did get hiked (the Y price went up AUD$2,800 from memory), days after the Model Y order page launch, the day after the US price hike.
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