Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nolimits]

Recently watched tesla economist video and thought if Tesla had the lower pricing for the new countries, they would in effect lock in some of recession orders (by providing lower pricing). Then raise it in few weeks/months for those countries. Also thought that it would be upsetting after waiting all these years. Tesla can be ordered but at such a high premium, if they started with the hiked price.

 

[Creekstalker]

The form of cash known as "USD" is known for retaining it's value,

Yeah you lost me right there. USD pretty much only ever loses value at a slow and steady pace, even though that has quickened to 8% or so the last couple years. Since it's inception Bitcoin has gained value in the thousands of %'s even though the gains and drops are more dramatic.

Oh, and Elon is a trained economist. He was an Ecpn major.

 

[CaliBear1]

Ca-Pit-U-Lation is making me late
Is keeping me waiting...

 

[insaneoctane]

I don't know how they could charge a Semi used as an RV.

Really depends on whether semi can use existing Superchargers or not (extension cable?). That would allow you to fully charge closer to your destination. Admittedly a good question.

 

[Chenkers]

Really depends on whether semi can use existing Superchargers or not (extension cable?). That would allow you to fully charge closer to your destination. Admittedly a good question.

Tesla do have an adaptor that allows the Semi to charge at a regular supercharger. The twitter post below includes a photo of this adaptor taken a couple of years ago. I'd think it reasonable to expect that Tesla would supply a similar adapter with Semi orders, even if only intended to be used in emergency situations.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275661008930029569

Update: Tesla Semi's ad hoc 'Megacharger' setup spotted in the open at Supercharger

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla do have an adaptor that allows the Semi to charge at a regular supercharger. The twitter post below includes a photo of this adaptor taken a couple of years ago. I'd think it reasonable to expect that Tesla would supply a similar adapter with Semi orders, even if only intended to be used in emergency situations.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275661008930029569

Update: Tesla Semi's ad hoc 'Megacharger' setup spotted in the open at Supercharger

Yes, I have seen this. They also have a "squid" adapter that allows them to plug multiple supercharger cables into the adapter, and plug that into the Semi in order to charge faster.

Given, however, how Semi's would block up to 20 or more superchargers (with a load attached) doing this, I've only ever seen it happen at Kettleman City and without a load attached.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Don't you dare make a prediction of a rally

How low can the market can go before a rally, that is the question. Seems like every finance guru on YouTube is predicting this week or next week to be the bottom before Oil price reverse and that we reached peak inflation.

 

[JustMe]

How low can the market can go before a rally, that is the question. Seems like every finance guru on YouTube is predicting this week or next week to be the bottom before Oil price reverse and that we reached peak inflation.

That’s good to hear - those guys are never wrong!

 

[ZachF]

How low can the market can go before a rally, that is the question. Seems like every finance guru on YouTube is predicting this week or next week to be the bottom before Oil price reverse and that we reached peak inflation.

See what Cramer is saying and assume the opposite… about a 90% success rate.

 

[ZeApelido]

For those of you males who manage to spare enough time away from TMC to have and take care of kids, Happy Father’s Day.

 

[mars_or_bust]

How low can the market can go before a rally, that is the question. Seems like every finance guru on YouTube is predicting this week or next week to be the bottom before Oil price reverse and that we reached peak inflation.

As there is no extra oil production, and the sanctions are ongoing, then the only way the oil price reverses is for consumption to drop. The only way for the consumption to drop is for the US to enter a recession. Given a choice between rampant inflation, and recession, it seems pretty clear the current administration chose recession. This of course was not a necessary binary choice, as one could have significantly supported the petrol companies to support rapid additional oil extraction. Unfortunately for various (stupid and political and shortsighted) reasons, supporting oil extractions was not considered.

We are thus left with a likely recession.

Of course, the effect a recession will have on the stock market in general, and TSLA in particular, is unknown. One would assume a further drop of 10-20% would not be a surprise. On the other hand, one could argue the market took into account a recession, so we may be at the bottom. But even if we are at the bottom, a recession would likely lower the possibility of a fast rally. Personally, I still expect TSLA to be about 2500 by end of 2023, with the run up only starting at the end of this year.

 

[woodisgood]

For those of you males who manage to spare enough time away from TMC to have and take care of kids, Happy Father’s Day.

This also applies to those of us who may or may not have attempted sale of said kids for more TSLA, correct?

 

[Krugerrand]

That’s good to hear - those guys are never wrong!

But they are part of the control mechanism. So if they’re being told by the higher ups…

 

[OrthoSurg]

As there is no extra oil production, and the sanctions are ongoing, then the only way the oil price reverses is for consumption to drop. The only way for the consumption to drop is for the US to enter a recession. Given a choice between rampant inflation, and recession, it seems pretty clear the current administration chose recession. This of course was not a necessary binary choice, as one could have significantly supported the petrol companies to support rapid additional oil extraction. Unfortunately for various (stupid and political and shortsighted) reasons, supporting oil extractions was not considered.

We are thus left with a likely recession.

Of course, the effect a recession will have on the stock market in general, and TSLA in particular, is unknown. One would assume a further drop of 10-20% would not be a surprise. On the other hand, one could argue the market took into account a recession, so we may be at the bottom. But even if we are at the bottom, a recession would likely lower the possibility of a fast rally. Personally, I still expect TSLA to be about 2500 by end of 2023, with the run up only starting at the end of this year.

That’s one other interesting point. What is factored in the stock market pullback right now? The highest CPI inflation rate in decades and a likelihood of recession. A friend texted me the other day to know what to do with his money. Invest now or wait once the recession is official. I told him to gradually invest in recession proof companies with full order books and no dept. I think we all know which company is well aligned to go through a recession. We just have to send the memo to wallstreet and hedge funds.

 

[traxila]

Crytpo freefall seems to have finally stopped.

Stories of specific wallets being targeted on the blockchains for liquidation. Ethereum was targeted for a sub 900 price to supposedly force liquidation of of about 150,000 ETH. So much for anonymity…

Crypto is canary in coal mine at this point. If it is still recovering come Tuesday then chances of a stable to up market are much better.

 

[insaneoctane]

Perspective on the macro...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538159906108411904

 

[wtlloyd]

As there is no extra oil production, and the sanctions are ongoing, then the only way the oil price reverses is for consumption to drop. The only way for the consumption to drop is for the US to enter a recession. Given a choice between rampant inflation, and recession, it seems pretty clear the current administration chose recession. This of course was not a necessary binary choice, as one could have significantly supported the petrol companies to support rapid additional oil extraction. Unfortunately for various (stupid and political and shortsighted) reasons, supporting oil extractions was not considered.

We are thus left with a likely recession.

Of course, the effect a recession will have on the stock market in general, and TSLA in particular, is unknown. One would assume a further drop of 10-20% would not be a surprise. On the other hand, one could argue the market took into account a recession, so we may be at the bottom. But even if we are at the bottom, a recession would likely lower the possibility of a fast rally. Personally, I still expect TSLA to be about 2500 by end of 2023, with the run up only starting at the end of this year.

Your primary assumption is false. Oil producers have refused to increase production, and it is a refining shortage that is the problem, anyway. This will not change, all fossil fuel producers see the writing on the wall, and will withdraw from exploration and development in extreme locations as the production cost will not be supported by price. Natural gas fracking drillers stated plainly last year that they would not be increasing production rates, even as prices recovered and demand returned.
There is not much an Administration can actually do, in the short term, as it's Congress who control the money flow.
I do, however, completely agree with your last sentence! Your numbers and dates just feel right.

 

[Captkerosene]

I remember at the time they say they bought Bitcoin for "more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash." Yeah that worked out great. I hope they had some kind of exit strategy for Bitcoin. I hope someone asks them about this ridiculous decision in the earnings call.

Do you really want to second guess Elon? He knows more than 99.9% of the people on this board about BTC. My personal opinion is that BTC is the perfect use case for underutilized corporate cash.

 

[Knightshade]

This of course was not a necessary binary choice, as one could have significantly supported the petrol companies to support rapid additional oil extraction. Unfortunately for various (stupid and political and shortsighted) reasons, supporting oil extractions was not considered.

This nonsense was debunked many pages ago, with direct quotes from 3 different oil company CEOS explicitly admitting they have no interest in additional extraction whatsoever and they prefer high prices to spending anything to increase supply, or add refining capacity.

Oil companies have massive amounts of EXISTING leases and rights they're not exploiting, there's nothing whatsoever in government holding them back from more supply- they are actively choosing not to to do at and openly admit it.

Do you really want to second guess Elon? He knows more than 99.9% of the people on this board about BTC. My personal opinion is that BTC is the perfect use case for underutilized corporate cash.

it was months after Tesla bought 1.5 billion of BTC that he apparently realized it wasted a ton of energy, largely from fossil fuels, and reversed course on accepting it for payment.

I don't know if 99.9% of people on this board had already been aware BTC wastes massive amounts of energy, but apparently Elon didn't know it when he had Tesla buy it and start taking it as payment.


Elon is brilliant, and knows a lot about a lot of things. He knows more than most people on lots of things. But nobody knows everything about everything.

Sometimes even brilliant people are wrong. The fact he generally admits it and changes course, far more quickly than others are likely to, is a towering strength of his historically.

The fact some folks refuse to accept the idea he COULD be wrong on ANYTHING- even though he's often admitted being so- is frankly weird.

 

[Krugerrand]

Perspective on the macro...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538159906108411904

Well that makes me feel better.