Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Favguy]

There is no rapidly-plummeting popularity and respect, his popularity in the US has increased from 36% in Q1 2020 to 41% in Q1 2022: Elon Musk popularity & fame | YouGov

It would be fascinating to see a further breakdown of demographic support, I very much suspect left wing to moderate support has fallen off a cliff, whilst right wingers have jumped on board en-masse from a very low previous level. I'm holding both TSLA and my nose at this point, but I'm pragmatic, having my fortune tied up in TSLA. Elon has gone down in my estimation of late, he's either politically, really quite unpleasant, or nieve to what todays Republicans are about. I'm very much hoping its the latter.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

While Elon's political views and sympathies probably don't belong on this thread, I do think it is important to state that while Elon's particular views have remained fairly consistent over time (in my view), both Republican and Democratic impressions of his views have swung with whatever the current state of their view happens to be. If Elon seems to favor more of what one party feels is right he is hailed as a saint while the other vilifies him. As public views swing the other way the opposite happens.

Elon is no different than most other Americans in that he has developed his political principles over time and through his own experiences, as is his right. What makes Elon different is that he is beyond wealthy, is constantly in the spotlight, and has star status. This puts him under the political microscope of both the left and right and earns him either blind praise or outright vilification depending on which side you talk to at any given time.

The important thing, from this thread's perspective, is that absolutely none of the above has anything to do with his ability to run his companies. Elon is Elon, just like you are you, and I am me. He is just under a constant eye of scrutiny, while you and I nobody could care less about politically. Rants one way or another are simply a reflection of the person doing the ranting...not the object of the rant.

Respectfully,

Dan

 

[Featsbeyond50]

That's the hedge, it inflates faster than inflation....

But it doesn't feel like it to us. Our net assets increased wildly, became the new norm, then our net assets retreated moderately while everything else (-->cost of lving) started inflating. It's like when your team wins 3 straight super bowls then has a 3 & 13 season. The net is great but feels crappy at the time.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I have been a redditor for many years in a lot of different sub forums. The hate against Elon has really picked up the last year. I get a feeling that we are observing the resentment part of Ray Dalio is happening right in front of our eyes, 28:30 here:

Elon Musk becomes the figurehead of this resentment. He is the worlds richest, he is awkward which makes him a strong candidate to be a scapegoat and he is not afraid to point out the faults in our reasonings and our model of the world, that most people subconciously are aware are there. 2:30 here

So we are observing this resentment, lots of people use reddit as a way to release some of this feeling of resentment. On reddit they can throw stones at Elon without having to risk physical harm to themselves. This feels good to them, it is a form of catharsis to release some of the pressure from the feeling of resentment. Some from corona lockdowns, some from inflation, some from general feeling of helplessness on not being able to afford their first home etc is being released by taking a piss on Elon.

I agree with all of this.
Plus Elon has done his fair share to alienate some of his left/environmental supporter with all his Twitter shenanigans.
Media has amplified that but he has 100M followers and is definitely smart enough to know the consequences of his words. It is what it is.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Good sign for easing inflation? Cheaper inputs for Tesla? Hopefully this is a precursor to crude oil futures dropping.

Top three Aussie miners to shed $11 bln in market value as commodity rout accelerates

Australia's big three miners were on track to lose more than A$16 billion ($11.12 billion) in combined market value on Monday at current levels, as a commodities selloff over easing China demand and fears of a global recession deepened.

www.reuters.com

 

[ZachF]

Skipped a few pages to catch up. Not sure this has been posted.

Possible. Not probable. Probability <=2.0%?

Bumpy road ahead for Elon Musk as Tesla faces losing world's biggest electric car maker crown, study says

The Bloomberg Intelligence report expects Volkswagen to take advantage of its scale in Europe and China to overtake Tesla in less than two years.

www.businessinsider.com

“A study by Bloomberg Intelligence expects the German giant to double production to more than 2 million battery-powered vehicles in 2024, overtaking Tesla”

LOL

Tesla will be at an over 2m production rate in just a few months (Q4 this year), not 2024.

 

[UkNorthampton]

“A study by Bloomberg Intelligence expects the German giant to double production to more than 2 million battery-powered vehicles in 2024, overtaking Tesla”

LOL

Tesla will be at an over 2m production rate in just a few months (Q4 this year), not 2024.

This study coincides with VW's implosion over software. Wait for next full version with a better incompatible architecture? Go for intermediate improvement on current? Big arguments across VW group, huge timelines, costs. They should muddle through now (existing, Android Automotive) and either go with Android/Apple or make their own - but properly this time. I can't see VW doing good software group-wide - too many mutually exclusive goals, especially with premium brands.

On reflection, get a move on and let Mate Rimac loose & empowered - he's VW's best hope

 

[raffiniert]

Everyone whining about Elons political views not aligning with yours: What the h*ll is wrong with you guys? You insist on the right to have your own opinion, but everyone that does not have the same as you doesn't have the very same right?

Maybe, just maybe, you should care more about what Elon actually does - we have the hottest heatwave in central Europe in ages, climate change is kicking in, population is falling apart because of more left- and right-wing extremism everywhere...?!

"goal is to have the furthest left and right 10% equally unhappy" - this is Elon.

Stop with your stupid cancel culture just because someone does what you also do: have his/her own opinion.

 

[Favguy]

Everyone whining about Elons political views not aligning with yours: What the h*ll is wrong with you guys? You insist on the right to have your own opinion, but everyone that does not have the same as you doesn't have the very same right?

Maybe, just maybe, you should care more about what Elon actually does - we have the hottest heatwave in central Europe in ages, climate change is kicking in, population is falling apart because of more left- and right-wing extremism everywhere...?!

"goal is to have the furthest left and right 10% equally unhappy" - this is Elon.

Stop with your stupid cancel culture just because someone does what you also do: have his/her own opinion.

The issue is the people he seems to be aligning with, on the whole, deny that climate change even exists. Most of them would also love nothing more than to keep the status quo and for EV's & renewables to die off. The left may have 10% of loonies, for sure, and the current Dems. have dissed Elon, SpaceX, & Tesla, but there is no equivalent 10% of loonies on the right. Current Repubs. are around 2/3rds extremist.

At least that's how it appears looking in from abroad, maybe we should shut up about politics before upsetting the Mods!

 

[ZachF]

r/technology is like the rest of Reddit which has been an Elon/Tesla hate site for some years now. If you never go to Reddit normally you wouldn't know this but people who look at Reddit regularly are used to it.

TBH I’m constantly surprised Reddit is still used… it has one of the worst formats on the internet.

 

[Christine69420]

It’s 100% his own doing. The well-deserved hate is in response to his own choices of what subjects to sound off about.

It's never OK to hate someone just for having a different opinion.

 

[heltok]

People on reddit are being silly. Saying they or others will not buy a Tesla because of their leadership. Instead they will buy a Kia, Hyundai or something, like those Chaebol companies are saints. Or a VW, like VW gassing monkeys is the kind of people they want to identify with. Or a BYD, because China are saints respecting human rights and has America’s best interests at heart.

And it’s all about what Elon said or what group he belongs to, not how his actions speak. That’s what they care about, Elon belongs to the outgroup, to hell with if he has done more for climate change, let’s buy the ingroup car of choice and make a lot of fuss about what someone said or what groups he is meming with. That’s such a princess mentality, caring about who said what over their actions. But I guess that’s the time we live in.

Anyway, any PR is good PR. And Tesla sure is getting a lot of PR =)

 

[unk45]

Show me any vehicle that can OTA anything but infotainment (at scale) and I'll show you possible competition.

Volvo does. I’m not sure you’d consider that “at scale”. By now there are several but none scaled equal to Tesla and probably none with such delightfully quipped release notes.

 

[The Accountant]

The Model Y LR is Tesla's best selling car and
Despite increased production at Fremont by as much as 10%-15% this quarter,
Despite increased pricing on Model Y LR by $3k now starting at $66k,
Despite rising interest rates,
Despite inflation & recession fears,
Despite the presumed Elon hate, . . .

. . . the Model Y LR for delivery to the Northeast US increased to 11.5 mths from 10.5 mths.

 

[ZachF]

The issue is the people he seems to be aligning with, on the whole, deny that climate change even exists. Most of them would also love nothing more than to keep the status quo and for EV's & renewables to die off. The left may have 10% of loonies, for sure, and the current Dems. have dissed Elon, SpaceX, & Tesla, but there is no equivalent 10% of loonies on the right. Current Repubs. are around 2/3rds extremist.

At least that's how it appears looking in from abroad, maybe we should shut up about politics before upsetting the Mods!

Believe it or not, but we’re probably at the point in the mission where the people who don’t believe in climate change but will actually allow you to build factories/mines/etc in reasonable amounts of time will advance the mission more than the people who believe in climate change but will engage in bureaucratic DDOS and probably never allow a new mine under any circumstance.

 

[Xd85]

View attachment 818758

The Model Y LR is Tesla's best selling car and
Despite increased production at Fremont by as much as 10%-15% this quarter,
Despite increased pricing on Model Y LR by $3k now starting at $66k,
Despite rising interest rates,
Despite inflation & recession fears,
Despite the presumed Elon hate, . . .

. . . the Model Y LR for delivery to the Northeast US increased to 11.5 mths from 10.5 mths.

View attachment 818754

so... falling P wait times = sooner recognition of higher margin ?

 

[replicant]

Stop with your stupid cancel culture just because someone does what you also do: have his/her own opinion.

Maybe Elon should start communicating Tesla's main news via the @tesla account instead of his personal @elonmusk? It is not "cancel culture" but a matter of not mixing personal political opinions, endorsements, rants, memes, dick jockes (…) with news and announcements from Tesla-the-Company.

Elon knows politics is (often) divisive, but he's doing everything in his power to force anyone who want to follow Tesla to put up with his childhish tweets memes and provocations. And he's never focused on the moderate left either so he polarizes the debate as much as possible, deliberately, and then complains about how extreme everything is on social media

Elon can of course use multiple accounts, which Twitter support on all platforms. We know he already use this feature but he still prefers to have his fights with his political opponents (and he's always focusing on the most extreme ones).

I'm an investor in Tesla because I believe the company is great in many areas (product, strategy, no/little marketing, business strategy). It was okay to focus so much on Elon's life when the company was fragile and it had little resources to communicate, but it makes no sense in 2022 to have the CEO tweets so much about politics (that has near ZERO relations with Tesla) and force investors to follow his personal account.

If this is cancel culture, then asking tesla.com not to send me to emails about cats and dogs' facts would also be cancel culture.

 

[Nocturnal]

Believe it or not, but we’re probably at the point in the mission where the people who don’t believe in climate change but will actually allow you to build factories/mines/etc in reasonable amounts of time will advance the mission more than the people who believe in climate change but will engage in bureaucratic DDOS and probably never allow a new mine under any circumstance.

I hate saying it (not in agreeing with you personally, but siding with greens) but you are probably correct. Too many in the climate change camp are unreasonable zealots. "Don't build an EV factory! That just keeps the car lifestyle going. Everyone should move to a city and bike around." vs "Climate change isn't real but these are good jobs and provide tax revenue to pay for more flag lapel pins."

 

[The Accountant]

View attachment 818758

The Model Y LR is Tesla's best selling car and
Despite increased production at Fremont by as much as 10%-15% this quarter,
Despite increased pricing on Model Y LR by $3k now starting at $66k,
Despite rising interest rates,
Despite inflation & recession fears,
Despite the presumed Elon hate, . . .

. . . the Model Y LR for delivery to the Northeast US increased to 11.5 mths from 10.5 mths.

View attachment 818754

The Coming TSLAQ Talking Point

The Tesla backlog wait time obviously needs to drop. With Giga-Texas coming on board, it will not only provide more Model Y supply but it will take the pressure off Fremont where they can increase the supply of Model 3s.

At some point it would be great to see wait times at 4-6 weeks in North America basically meaning that supply matches demand. When demand increases each quarter by 10%, supply will increase as well by 10% keeping wait times at 4-6 weeks.

As the backlog wait times drop from 11 mths to 9 mths to 6 months, and so on, TSLAQ will along the way point to this as proof demand is disappearing.
We will see TSLAQ twitter graphs, Seeking Alpha articles with elaborate analyses and deceptive prose.
Once again they will be disappointed.

How many times have we heard demand is falling?

 

[The Accountant]

so... falling P wait times = sooner recognition of higher margin ?

Yes that's what i was thinking. Also note that the Model X wait time went up but the Model X Plaid went down . . .encouraging those who want a Model X now to consider the Plaid.