Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[raffiniert]

If this is cancel culture, then asking tesla.com not to send me to emails about cats and dogs' facts would also be cancel culture.

Utter BS.
Follow @tesla
Unfollow @elonmusk
Done.

 

[2daMoon]

BREAKING NEWS!

Volatility remains low while the market is closed.​

The SP seems to be negotiating the new federal holiday quite nicely.

 

[Singuy]

The Coming TSLAQ Talking Point

The Tesla backlog wait time obviously needs to drop. With Giga-Texas coming on board, it will not only provide more Model Y supply but it will take the pressure off Fremont where they can increase the supply of Model 3s.

At some point it would be great to see wait times at 4-6 weeks in North America basically meaning that supply matches demand. When demand increases each quarter by 10%, supply will increase as well by 10% keeping wait times at 4-6 weeks.

As the backlog wait times drop from 11 mths to 9 mths to 6 months, and so on, TSLAQ will along the way point to this as proof demand is disappearing.
We will see TSLAQ twitter graphs, Seeking Alpha articles with elaborate analyses and deceptive prose.
Once again they will be disappointed.

How many times have we heard demand is falling?
View attachment 818760

Dealing with a poster outside of this thread with over 4k post who claims sales are softening because Elon wrote "this is going to be a tough quarter"...the point to the few hundred used model Ys for sale over retail...

This person isn't even tslaq unless we allowed a tslaq member to make over 4k posts on this forum.

 

[ZachF]

I hate saying it but you are probably correct. Too many in the climate change camp are unreasonable zealots. "Don't build an EV factory! That just keeps the car lifestyle going. Everyone should move to a city and bike around." vs "Climate change isn't real but these are good jobs and provide tax revenue to pay for more flag lapel pins."

The number one state for renewable energy isn’t California… it’s Texas. And it’s not even close. If Texas were it’s own country, it’d be #1 in the world for wind and solar generation per capita, beating out current leader Denmark by a large margin.

Texas produces 2.5x more electricity than California does, with a smaller population, and will probably soon produce more renewable energy than California produces *total* energy.

There is also currently eye-watering amounts of solar capacity being planned for Texas.

Let’s also not forget it will house the worlds largest EV and battery factory as well.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Yes, but they are mostly bots. After you work in AI for awhile and read a bunch of what AI writes, you get a really good feel for it and lemme tell you...most of that sugar is AI.

I'll read about 10 to 20 and ALL the comments feel "bot-ish". For those that don't know, the cost for someone to train/buy a model and then inference seed threads with 'their sentiment' is nearing a penny per thousand when you buy cloud time on AWS Inferentia or Google TPUs

It's basically this thread and the investors forum in general that is basically "bot-free", everything else is infested to the gills. Based on your social platform of choice, you are most likely consuming upwards of 80% sentiment driving bot content.

You seem pretty sure of those stats. You want to advise Elon on his Twitter purchase?
/S
Unfounded assumption from what I can tell.

And several on this forum diss Twitter as a place with nothing of value. It's just a medium, people! That's like saying "books are useless". Sure we've each know of books which we think are dumb and useless, but that doesn't mean 'books' are categorically dumb and useless. There are worthwhile posters on Twitter along with some bots and the ones you don't care for. Stop killing the messenger. [/rant]

 

[Stretch2727]

The issue is the people he seems to be aligning with, on the whole, deny that climate change even exists. Most of them would also love nothing more than to keep the status quo and for EV's & renewables to die off. The left may have 10% of loonies, for sure, and the current Dems. have dissed Elon, SpaceX, & Tesla, but there is no equivalent 10% of loonies on the right. Current Repubs. are around 2/3rds extremist.

At least that's how it appears looking in from abroad, maybe we should shut up about politics before upsetting the Mods!

My personal opinion is the the internal combustion engine and burning of fossil fuel for other uses is not going to end because of climate change or politics. Burning of fossil fuel is going to end because EV's and renewable energy are cheaper and much better.

 

[Coolio2000]

Yes that's what i was thinking. Also note that the Model X wait time went up but the Model X Plaid went down . . .encouraging those who want a Model X now to consider the Plaid.

The profit margin for a Model X Plaid must be ridiculous at $139k.

 

[The Accountant]

Dealing with a poster outside of this thread with over 4k post who claims sales are softening because Elon wrote "this is going to be a tough quarter"...the point to the few hundred used model Ys for sale over retail...

This person isn't even tslaq unless we allowed a tslaq member to make over 4k posts on this forum.

They don't believe their lying eyes.
I'm speaking for my geographic area in the Northeast US . . . .
There was a time not too long ago, where I could log onto the Tesla site and see pages and pages of NEW Model 3s, Xs and Ss available for sale within 200 miles of my location. There were many models available in inventory ready to buy and pick-up immediately. I would say up to 80 cars available at all times.
Today there are 2 Model Ss and that's it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Dealing with a poster outside of this thread with over 4k post who claims sales are softening because Elon wrote "this is going to be a tough quarter"...the point to the few hundred used model Ys for sale over retail...

This person isn't even tslaq unless we allowed a tslaq member to make over 4k posts on this forum.

"Dealing with"? Is he in your living room and refusing to leave til you change his mind? These vintage "demand concerns" will be utterly sill by the time 2Q earnings come out and guidance is reaffirmed.

You can just leave these folks be.

 

[SOULPEDL]

They don't believe their lying eyes.
I'm speaking for my geographic area in the Northeast US . . . .
There was a time not too long ago, where I could log onto the Tesla site and see pages and pages of NEW Model 3s, Xs and Ss available for sale within 200 miles of my location. There were many models available in inventory ready to buy and pick-up immediately. I would say up to 80 cars available at all times.
Today there are 2 Model Ss and that's it.

Are Model S sales in trouble? /s

 

[The Accountant]

The profit margin for a Model X Plaid must be ridiculous at $139k.

The Model S Plaid is crazy as well.

A base Model S is $105k
The Model S Plaid is $136k

$31k higher selling price for the Plaid. What are the increased costs? one additional motor, three carbon sleeved rotors, better brakes (?), interior upgrades . . .maybe $8k more in costs?

 

[jerry33]

The number one state for renewable energy isn’t California… it’s Texas. And it’s not even close. If Texas were it’s own country, it’d be #1 in the world for wind and solar generation per capita, beating out current leader Denmark by a large margin.

Texas produces 2.5x more electricity than California does, with a smaller population, and will probably soon produce more renewable energy than California produces *total* energy.

There is also currently eye-watering amounts of solar capacity being planned for Texas.

Let’s also not forget it will house the worlds largest EV and battery factory as well.

There was a bill last Texas legislative session to exclude renewables from the calculation of energy production, so there is still a lot of (paid) political resistance. However, I'm pretty sure greed (lower renewable pricing) will win in the end. Every Tesla, solar roof/panel, and Powerwall sold means one more voter who will vote for their self-interest.

 

[thx1139]

They don't believe their lying eyes.
I'm speaking for my geographic area in the Northeast US . . . .
There was a time not too long ago, where I could log onto the Tesla site and see pages and pages of NEW Model 3s, Xs and Ss available for sale within 200 miles of my location. There were many models available in inventory ready to buy and pick-up immediately. I would say up to 80 cars available at all times.
Today there are 2 Model Ss and that's it.

We are selling our 2015 Model S 85D with 114K miles. Have had it listed for $44,900. A few months ago when we start looking to list it while waiting on our new S the highest price I saw for a similar car over 100K miles was $37,900. Just took a look at Carvana and see a 2013 Model S with over 100K miles purchase in progress for that $37,900. For yucks I just looked to see what Carvana would offer us and it is $18,900. What a ripoff they have a 2012 with over 105K miles for sale at $34,990.

Hey where do people think the best place to sell a Tesla is on the web? We have ours on AutoTrader and Facebook Marketplace.

 

[JRP3]

People on reddit are being silly. Saying they or others will not buy a Tesla because of their leadership. Instead they will buy a Kia, Hyundai or something, like those Chaebol companies are saints. Or a VW, like VW gassing monkeys is the kind of people they want to identify with. Or a BYD, because China are saints respecting human rights and has America’s best interests at heart.

The difference is the leadership of those other companies are smart enough not to repeatedly make divisive statements.

 

[MABMAB]

They don't believe their lying eyes.
I'm speaking for my geographic area in the Northeast US . . . .
There was a time not too long ago, where I could log onto the Tesla site and see pages and pages of NEW Model 3s, Xs and Ss available for sale within 200 miles of my location. There were many models available in inventory ready to buy and pick-up immediately. I would say up to 80 cars available at all times.
Today there are 2 Model Ss and that's it.

I checked all cars within 200 miles of my zip code US.
6 Demo 3s
3 new S
7 Y, but they all have 1,000-4000 miles on them.

Used
One Y in range
6X
10 3s
2 S

Note, most if not all of those are near LARGE population centers, not in my state or neighboring state

 

[SOULPEDL]

We are selling our 2015 Model S 85D with 114K miles. Have had it listed for $44,900. A few months ago when we start looking to list it while waiting on our new S the highest price I saw for a similar car over 100K miles was $37,900. Just took a look at Carvana and see a 2013 Model S with over 100K miles purchase in progress for that $37,900. For yucks I just looked to see what Carvana would offer us and it is $18,900. What a ripoff they have a 2012 with over 105K miles for sale at $34,990.

Caravana finance rate is worse, and they're all selling. I gave up with them. New ones through Tesla could even be cheaper than used at Caravana - definitely the payments.

 

[ZachF]

There was a bill last Texas legislative session to exclude renewables from the calculation of energy production, so there is still a lot of (paid) political resistance. However, I'm pretty sure greed (lower renewable pricing) will win in the end. Every Tesla, solar roof/panel, and Powerwall sold means one more voter who will vote for their self-interest.

 

[JRP3]

A claim that the 4680 Model Y is getting the acceleration boost option. However the number he shows says from 4.8 to 4.2 but 4.8 is the listing for the long range Y and he says his Y lists 5.0 as 0-60 so it's not clear to me that the acceleration boost option applies to the 4680 version.

 

[Ratanpara]

The Coming TSLAQ Talking Point

The Tesla backlog wait time obviously needs to drop. With Giga-Texas coming on board, it will not only provide more Model Y supply but it will take the pressure off Fremont where they can increase the supply of Model 3s.

At some point it would be great to see wait times at 4-6 weeks in North America basically meaning that supply matches demand. When demand increases each quarter by 10%, supply will increase as well by 10% keeping wait times at 4-6 weeks.

As the backlog wait times drop from 11 mths to 9 mths to 6 months, and so on, TSLAQ will along the way point to this as proof demand is disappearing.
We will see TSLAQ twitter graphs, Seeking Alpha articles with elaborate analyses and deceptive prose.
Once again they will be disappointed.

How many times have we heard demand is falling?
View attachment 818760

Sure current demand is very high, 65K for Model Y is getting bit high, is this just Tesla taking advantage of supply and demand pricing ?, Over last couple years plenty of money was supply by good stock market condition as well as crypto money, now that is not the case at the moment, I just like to get a feel of buying community who would order Model Y at current price without thinking about price, people have that much money ?, I was thinking price would go down with supply increasing from two new factories. sure input cost may be rising but there is no way it's rising as fast as price increases.

 

[SOULPEDL]

View attachment 818785

Only one solar in Az planned. I'm thinking the grey dots are Peaker Plants ("other"). I know SRP is adding more PPs in Coolidge Az.
Az Corp Commission... sheesh! I vote both, doesn't do much in this retirement state. Elderly just not buying any of it.