(emphasis mine)The cost of oil isn't going up due to supply.
Willingness to extract it is going down. Oil producers have lost faith in the future of oil so rather than invest in future production, they are returning money to their shareholders (and themselves) as quickly as possible. The longer and deeper this oil shortage is, the better off the people who own these assets are.
This is why Musk was pushing for more oil recently. Demand for EVs climbed way before this recent spike in oil prices. We're at a point where the oil price increase is destabilizing the economy far more than any positive effect on EV sales.
Not entirely sure if you were refuting the point I was trying to make, but I think the highlighted point you make above is in line with my sentiment of "many factors" leading to the likely greater cost of oil as time progresses...