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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OT
Most children today that are in their late twenties will probably make it to the mid 80's.
A normal retirement age (NRA) for these "kids", of 67 to begin drawing full retirement benefits for the next 15-20 years makes no sense.
Social Security (SS) could be made solvent by increasing the NRA and SS withholding earnings limits.
Medicare costs however is a real head scratcher.
Social Security reform as you proposed will likely happen in the next few years to keep the system solvent.
 
Today, I'm bombarded on social media with:
- "crashing Tesla caught fire"
- "underpaid workers resign in Tesla Berlin"
- "Spain Model3 lemon owner gets car refunded after lawsuit"
- "Tesla Norway, Netherlands, Spain, ... Registrations drop
- "Musk trans son/daughter"
- "China region bans Teslas for 2 months"

....
Sighhh :/
...

I'm done for today. Signing off from any social media/forums/... for at least a week.
Had to google what you were referring to with “Musk trans son/daughter“.

Very sad situation there between the two of them by the looks of it.
 
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It was political theater and a slight to Elon. The administration miscalculated - they would not have lost the union vote if Tesla had been acknowledged. They certainly did not have to go so cartoonishly overboard in their union favoritism to the point where they had to tell public lies ("you led, Mary") that everyone could see through.
Thing is, while Biden panders to the 6.1% of private sector workers that are unionized in order to buy votes and campaign contributions, he is disrespecting and crapping on the other 93.9%-who WILL remember come election season. Biden's "Mary Led" foolishness is such an obvious lie that even those with no interest whatsoever in politics can't miss this. Somehow, I think Elon is more popular than Joe.
 
Battery powered mower? How many acres can you do on a charge? Looks pretty cool, I have a bat push mower.
2.5 acres and I really need a powerful wood chipper, but I've forbidden any gas to live on my mountain property.

I might have to come out of retirement and go work for Greenworks and yes, I've looked at their JDs, their AI is no bueno.
 
So….

About 305,000 cars produced in Q1.
Estimating 260,000 cars for Q2.

Given that it appears we are now already exceeding the fancy 1.5M cars/yr production rate (375k/qtr), where do we stand for the year relative to everyone’s expectations on production rate?

The steep portion of the S curve for both Austin and Berlin are coming in H2 2022.

If we assume Q3 averages 2.5k cars per week in Berlin and Austin averages 2k cars per week, and Q4 shows 3.5 and 3 respectively, that’s an extra 132,000 cars from them in H2.

Fremont at 600k/yr gives us an additional 300k for H2.

Shanghai at 72k/month average for H2 gives us 432k for H2…

300+432+132+305+260 and I get roughly 1.43M cars this year.

Sprinkle a little Elon magic in there and I think we’ll be just shy of 1.5M cars for 2022.
 
So….

About 305,000 cars produced in Q1.
Estimating 260,000 cars for Q2.

Given that it appears we are now already exceeding the fancy 1.5M cars/yr production rate (375k/qtr), where do we stand for the year relative to everyone’s expectations on production rate?

The steep portion of the S curve for both Austin and Berlin are coming in H2 2022.

If we assume Q3 averages 2.5k cars per week in Berlin and Austin averages 2k cars per week, and Q4 shows 3.5 and 3 respectively, that’s an extra 132,000 cars from them in H2.

Fremont at 600k/yr gives us an additional 300k for H2.

Shanghai at 72k/month average for H2 gives us 432k for H2…

300+432+132+305+260 and I get roughly 1.43M cars this year.

Sprinkle a little Elon magic in there and I think we’ll be just shy of 1.5M cars for 2022.
Shanghai is going to do much higher than 72k/month in the second half of this year. Try 80-85k/month in Q3 and then 90-95k/month in Q4
 
Shanghai is going to do much higher than 72k/month in the second half of this year. Try 80-85k/month in Q3 and then 90-95k/month in Q4
Hope so. They’re shutting down for part of July as I recall to do some upgrades…what’s going to open the capacity up to 90-95k/month by end of year?
 
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Hope so. They’re shutting down for part of July as I recall to do some upgrades…what’s going to open the capacity up to 90-95k/month ny end of year?
I take it you’re reading Troy’s gospel?

It’s all about who you believe. Wu Wan stated he was told Shanghai was already at 3000/day last week. Troy thinks that Shanghai is maxed at 65k. So who are you going to believe. I think Troy has no actual sources or inside information so I’ll go with Wu Wan. We’ll find out who’s right in about 2 weeks.

As for the upgrades to hit new production levels, I believe Wu Wan also said those upgrades would take a week. So Tesla could average 90k for most of Q3…..if supply chain allows it. It was stated a while back that the upgrades were to being production to 90k and there’s been multiple sources from suppliers that support Tesla gearing up for that production rate
 
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2.5 acres and I really need a powerful wood chipper, but I've forbidden any gas to live on my mountain property.

I might have to come out of retirement and go work for Greenworks and yes, I've looked at their JDs, their AI is no bueno.
I have a small gas chipper (5hp) that I use on stuff too small for the wood stove. Did find a cool little one-hand battery powered chain saw on Amazon-works great for cutting up limbs for the chipper. Useless for firewood though. I'm impressed that you're able to do 2.5 acres on a charge on that thing!
 
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Ok, ok, I normally don't comment on this kind of stuff here. But, I belong to an EV group here in my town and the other members seem to send their friends my way so they can test drive my Model Y and I tell them all about the pleasure of EV ownership (I'm a good at this). I have given test drives to countless people and as you know, once a person has driven a Tesla, they just have to have one. Well, the last two people to have driven my Tesla and sat through my spiel, they ordered right away. I just learned recently that these same last two people have cancelled their Model Y's and are ordering some other brand of EV. Both report that they are not buying Tesla's due to Elon's comments.

Just sayin'
And I had just the exact opposite experience 2 weeks ago at a restaurant with a colleague who hesitated between polestar and a Tesla. After we spoke, he pulled the trigger for the Tesla. He might have cancelled after but he seemed to esteem highly the achievements of Elon. I am just reaching the average between our 2 experiences. Probably there are many consumers cancelling their orders and many many others placing orders.

Dont fall in despair everyone, tomorrow the official action will finally resume.
 
And I had just the exact opposite experience 2 weeks ago at a restaurant with a colleague who hesitated between polestar and a Tesla. After we spoke, he pulled the trigger for the Tesla. He might have cancelled after but he seemed to esteem highly the achievements of Elon. I am just reaching the average between our 2 experiences. Probably there are many consumers cancelling their orders and many many others placing orders.

Dont fall in despair everyone, tomorrow the official action will finally resume.
And while we have discussed and re-discussed Twitter, Bitcoin, and rehashed our political positions again, these last 3 days Tesla has quietly built some 8600 vehicles of the highest ecological and technological order. I dare say
our forces are gathering for a counterattack. Like many here I expect it in the Q2/Q3 timeframe ... if the enemies' delaying and obfuscation tactics are sound, perhaps as late as Q4. But by then our forces will be overwhelming.
Model Y's on every block in the USA wins the war. Batteries cheaper and plentiful to win the peace.

HODL and keep the faith in the product, the vision, and the execution.
 
It’s all about who you believe. Wu Wan stated he was told Shanghai was already at 3000/day last week.

Not only does Wu Wa regularly speak with line workers while they are at the food trucks, he also knows someone in management as evidenced by this notice on all of his videos:

1655781829623.png
 
2.5 acres and I really need a powerful wood chipper, but I've forbidden any gas to live on my mountain property.

I might have to come out of retirement and go work for Greenworks and yes, I've looked at their JDs, their AI is no bueno.
I'm an Ego Power fan, don't need a zero turn but they've got a couple that can go 2-4 acre+. Got their lawn mower and snow blower tho
 
YOUR MODERATOR’S LITTLE EXPERIMENT

…in learning and exposing to all what would happen were “free speech” to be allowed to operate in this thread -

* only for a little while
* amongst only this relatively select group; a group in which effectively all participants already share a deep respect for Mr Musk and a very strong, self-interested desire for Tesla to succeed.

The result, clear to all, is chaos and vitriol. Very disheartening but absolutely expected.


I rest my case regarding Twitter and free speech. Thank you all for your input. You may collect your bag of M&Ms at the exit door.
Have you turned us in useful idiots? That's a nice change.