Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Favguy]

OT
Most children today that are in their late twenties will probably make it to the mid 80's. A normal retirement age (NRA) for these "kids", of 67 to begin drawing full retirement benefits for the next 15-20 years makes no sense.
Social Security (SS) could be made solvent by increasing the NRA and SS withholding earnings limits.
Medicare costs however is a real head scratcher.

That seems a little pessimistic, with the upcoming revolution in genetics, I was rather expecting a late 20's adult who looks after themselves to be looking at a healthy life span well in excess of 100. Heck, I'm 54 now and will be furious if I only get to mid eighties!

 

[JusRelax]

Elon supposedly speaking live soon on bloomberg (or maybe spoke already? If someone knows if he spoke already, please reply to this post):

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1nAJEYAOBdaJL

Edit: Looks like he spoke already. This Bloomberg article has his 5 key takeaways: (wish I actually heard him talk so I could verify these points):

Six Takeaways From What Elon Musk Said at Qatar Economic Forum

Elon Musk covered everything from the state of his deal to buy Twitter Inc. to the direction of the American economy and planned job cuts at Tesla Inc. in an appearance at the Qatar Economic Forum Tuesday.

www.bloomberg.com

• There are still a few unresolved matters about Musk’s planned acquisition of Twitter. Will the debt portion of the round come together? Will the shareholders vote in favor?
• A recession in the US “is inevitable at some point,” Musk said. “As to whether there is a recession in the near-term, that is more likely than not”
• On Tesla job cuts: “Tesla is reducing its salaried workforce roughly 10% over the next three months or so. We expect to grow our hourly workforce. We grew very fast on the salaried side, grew a little too fast in some areas”
• On competition from rival automakers: “Our constraints are much more in raw materials and being able to scale up production”
• Asked whether he would support Donald Trump in the next US presidential election: “I’m undecided"

 

[Buckminster]

If Elon were to buy and shutdown TMC we will need a backup space to regroup. My recommendation is r/islands

No one would think to find us there and it is nice and quiet. In addition, plenty of existing content to browse that might play into future (and current) interests.

 

[cricketman]

OT
Most children today that are in their late twenties will probably make it to the mid 80's. A normal retirement age (NRA) for these "kids", of 67 to begin drawing full retirement benefits for the next 15-20 years makes no sense.
Social Security (SS) could be made solvent by increasing the NRA and SS withholding earnings limits.
Medicare costs however is a real head scratcher.

I am not so sure, Childhood obesity rates are climbing at a terrrific rate. and obesity is the biggest factor to premature deaths. Even for covid-19 if you look at deaths of people under 80, obesity was the biggest risk factor. Similar for diabetes, kidney failure, heart atttacks, cancers etc,

Cutting edge cancer treatments and genetic therapies are awesome, but tacking obesity would have a WAY bigger effect on the health outcomes of the population

Anyway off topic I know - btw I do agree young people are not having kids because they are scared, of everything. Basically I think its down to consuming too much media and not enough time fighting and making up with kids in their neighbourhood! Kids are not learning the skills they need to become adults

 

[jkirkwood001]

Hey, in case anyone wants a distraction from all the insightful, friendly and on-topic dialogue this past long weekend, I'm glad to finally report we're green going into pre-market trading of the TSLA stock - up 3%. (Hallelujah!)

 

[aubreymcfato]

Anyway off topic I know - btw I do agree young people are not having kids because they are scared, of everything. Basically I think its down to consuming too much media and not enough time fighting and making up with kids in their neighbourhood! Kids are not learning the skills they need to become adults

I'm sorry, but "scared of everything" seems condescending.
You now have 30-40 something that are at their second or third economic crisis, that work more than their parents with less economic power and much more uncertainty, and above you have an incoming and apparently absolutely unmoving menace that is climate change. You live in Spain and have probably notice how hot is it, and it's not even end of June.
Would you put a baby in a world that in his twenties could see 50-60° (Celsius!) heatwaves in Western Europe, and a mass migration from Africa and Asia of hudreds of millions of people?
People are scared and rightly so, IMO. Tesla is one of the very few chance I personally see in changing the economic landscape towards a sustainable economy based on renewables and electrification. This is why a support Tesla no matter what Elon says - I look at what he does.

 

[WarpedOne]

So, when is Spain going into sea water desalinization for irrigation?
Powered by solar of course?

The only real problem is people living in the past/future, unwilling to solve current problems.
The past had past problems, future will have future problems, now we have current problems.
Go solve them.
Now.

 

[cliff harris]

After reading recent discussions regarding Tesla and PR departments, and after reading a lot of Gary Black (someone who I often find myself agreeing with these days), I think that he has a fair point that Tesla has NO PROBLEM with short term demand, but long term demand could take a hit through lack of PR.

Its REALLY hard to change 'common knowledge' about a brand. For example, I have no idea of skoda cars are well made, or reliable, or safe, but historically, I know they had a reputation for being laughable, cheap, fragile rubbish. They could spend billions trying to change my mind, but that first impression is real deep.

• Apple products are overpriced
• Chinese made goods are cheap and fall apart
• Germans are efficient and made reliable products
• Russian companies cannot be trusted.
• Porsches are fast
• Gucci is stylish

Maybe none of those things are true now? who knows! but these things have been so deep-set in my mind that its hard to change such opinions. Mostly these are opinions formed by PR and marketing. I've never even sat in a Porsche, but I know they are sexy and fast. How is this different to never having sat in a Tesla, but knowing they have panel gaps and catch fire?

I think Elon is basically one of those people who is so intelligent, he has reverse dunning-kruger, where he assumes everyone is intelligent, open-minded and analytical like he is. BUT THEY ARE NOT! In fact very few people are.

Advertising works, and PR works. I've never owned a Porsche, or anything by Gucci, but i've been 'primed' by PR and marketing to have opinions on them. Right now, Tesla is letting the rivals throw free punches at them in the media.
I agree that advertising right now would be a ludicrous waste of money, but PR is different. Way cheaper, and potentially more effective. PR to get facts out there for the media, in a hand-dandy format for their stories, and PR to get Teslas in to the hands of the movers and shakers and influencers.

We wouldn't need to care if Tesla stuck at 1 million car/year, but to hit 10 million a year you need to stop the deluge of bullshit about accidents and fires and emerald mine and so on.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon Musk moves Tesla layoff target from 10% to 3% of employees

 

[mongo]

Elon Musk moves Tesla layoff target from 10% to 3% of employees

Fredicle...
It was never 10% of workforce, it was 10% of non-production salaried workforce, which is around 3% of total workforce.

 

[jerry33]

After reading recent discussions regarding Tesla and PR departments, and after reading a lot of Gary Black (someone who I often find myself agreeing with these days), I think that he has a fair point that Tesla has NO PROBLEM with short term demand, but long term demand could take a hit through lack of PR.

Its REALLY hard to change 'common knowledge' about a brand. For example, I have no idea of skoda cars are well made, or reliable, or safe, but historically, I know they had a reputation for being laughable, cheap, fragile rubbish. They could spend billions trying to change my mind, but that first impression is real deep.

• Apple products are overpriced
• Chinese made goods are cheap and fall apart
• Germans are efficient and made reliable products
• Russian companies cannot be trusted.
• Porsches are fast
• Gucci is stylish

Maybe none of those things are true now? who knows! but these things have been so deep-set in my mind that its hard to change such opinions. Mostly these are opinions formed by PR and marketing. I've never even sat in a Porsche, but I know they are sexy and fast. How is this different to never having sat in a Tesla, but knowing they have panel gaps and catch fire?

I think Elon is basically one of those people who is so intelligent, he has reverse dunning-kruger, where he assumes everyone is intelligent, open-minded and analytical like he is. BUT THEY ARE NOT! In fact very few people are.

Advertising works, and PR works. I've never owned a Porsche, or anything by Gucci, but i've been 'primed' by PR and marketing to have opinions on them. Right now, Tesla is letting the rivals throw free punches at them in the media.
I agree that advertising right now would be a ludicrous waste of money, but PR is different. Way cheaper, and potentially more effective. PR to get facts out there for the media, in a hand-dandy format for their stories, and PR to get Teslas in to the hands of the movers and shakers and influencers.

We wouldn't need to care if Tesla stuck at 1 million car/year, but to hit 10 million a year you need to stop the deluge of bullshit about accidents and fires and emerald mine and so on.

The FUD isn't going to stop by advertising--particularly not by advertising to combat the FUD directly. It's more likely to have the opposite affect because people know advertising is basically lies or at best puffery. It's main advantage is brand recognition and Tesla has plenty of that. What will stop the FUD is what Tesla is doing--sticking to the plan and performing it well.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I am not so sure, Childhood obesity rates are climbing at a terrrific rate. and obesity is the biggest factor to premature deaths. Even for covid-19 if you look at deaths of people under 80, obesity was the biggest risk factor. Similar for diabetes, kidney failure, heart atttacks, cancers etc,

Cutting edge cancer treatments and genetic therapies are awesome, but tacking obesity would have a WAY bigger effect on the health outcomes of the population

Anyway off topic I know - btw I do agree young people are not having kids because they are scared, of everything. Basically I think its down to consuming too much media and not enough time fighting and making up with kids in their neighbourhood! Kids are not learning the skills they need to become adults

People don’t have kids anymore for multiple factors. It takes multiple years to get diplomation and pay back student loans. Youth is encouraged to consume Instagram way of life les sure and travel and enjoy life at young age. Early engagement has been discouraged by the easiness of moving one relationship to another with Tinder and multiple apps. Women are encouraged to work and are rightly to do so but it adds a lot of stress with the mental charge of taking care of all the things revolving around kids and their work. The eco anxious new generation see growing population has harmful for the planet since they see more kids has an inevitable way to increase consumption of the planet ressources. House prices pushed young family to live in suburbs far from their work and taxiing kids to their various activities after a day of work and traffic is adding to an already stressful life.

The 6 ortho residents I trained with all have between 3 to 5 kids since we met our girlfriends young, didn’t have time to go out that much during residency, had our first kids around 25, majority of our wives could stop working because we are lucky enough to make a descent amount of money and don’t bother with the cost of daily living. Same thing with the 4 orthos I work with, all between 3 to 5 kids too. All met their wives at young age between 16 and 20 years old, no stressful finances, possibility you hire nannies to avoid the taxiing stress of bringing kids around. Might be the last generation to have that many kids. We are all between 34 and 40. Now, with housing price, cost of living, scholarship, etc, you better have some parents who invested in TSLA in the early days because I don’t see how my kids will be able to afford a 1M house close to their work place and be able to have kids without a stressful financial situation right after graduating.

Now to give you some hope in this world of doom and gloom

 

[Singuy]

After reading recent discussions regarding Tesla and PR departments, and after reading a lot of Gary Black (someone who I often find myself agreeing with these days), I think that he has a fair point that Tesla has NO PROBLEM with short term demand, but long term demand could take a hit through lack of PR.

Its REALLY hard to change 'common knowledge' about a brand. For example, I have no idea of skoda cars are well made, or reliable, or safe, but historically, I know they had a reputation for being laughable, cheap, fragile rubbish. They could spend billions trying to change my mind, but that first impression is real deep.

• Apple products are overpriced
• Chinese made goods are cheap and fall apart
• Germans are efficient and made reliable products
• Russian companies cannot be trusted.
• Porsches are fast
• Gucci is stylish

Maybe none of those things are true now? who knows! but these things have been so deep-set in my mind that its hard to change such opinions. Mostly these are opinions formed by PR and marketing. I've never even sat in a Porsche, but I know they are sexy and fast. How is this different to never having sat in a Tesla, but knowing they have panel gaps and catch fire?

I think Elon is basically one of those people who is so intelligent, he has reverse dunning-kruger, where he assumes everyone is intelligent, open-minded and analytical like he is. BUT THEY ARE NOT! In fact very few people are.

Advertising works, and PR works. I've never owned a Porsche, or anything by Gucci, but i've been 'primed' by PR and marketing to have opinions on them. Right now, Tesla is letting the rivals throw free punches at them in the media.
I agree that advertising right now would be a ludicrous waste of money, but PR is different. Way cheaper, and potentially more effective. PR to get facts out there for the media, in a hand-dandy format for their stories, and PR to get Teslas in to the hands of the movers and shakers and influencers.

We wouldn't need to care if Tesla stuck at 1 million car/year, but to hit 10 million a year you need to stop the deluge of bullshit about accidents and fires and emerald mine and so on.

There's a lot of trying to smear teslas brand, but this is countered by

1. Most people never hear about it because most people don't follow car companies. It may feel different as Tesla shareholders but when you talk to your peers, you realize they know very little about Teslas except that Elon Musk lands rockets and that Tesla makes the best electric cars like how bose makes the best speakers.

2. Neighbors and friends wouldn't shut up about their Tesla which most has nothing but positive things to say

3. Mind blown when they sit inside and feel how smooth the acceleration is

4. Double mind blown when the steering wheel turns itself.

Elon have said in order for his ev company to to survive, he needs FSD to succeed. This in conjuction with leading manufacturing prowess will get to 20 mil cars.

I mean honestly given the amount of attacks Tesla get constantly, more than any automaker, it is leading by an order of magnitude in market cap compared to those companies which has billion dollars spend on pr yearly. The proof is in the pudding that these attacks make about zero difference and Tesla just ends up living rent free in the mind of everyone.

Tesla has these 2 what they believe are the best pr teams

1. Pace of innovation
2. Pace of cost reduction

 

[Knightshade]

I think Elon is basically one of those people who is so intelligent, he has reverse dunning-kruger, where he assumes everyone is intelligent, open-minded and analytical like he is. BUT THEY ARE NOT! In fact very few people are.

I've made this exact point before, and why it appears to be the reason he thinks he can "fix" social media.

The problem with social media isn't "the algorithm isn't public" the problem is "that's how most humans actually are on social media"

We wouldn't need to care if Tesla stuck at 1 million car/year, but to hit 10 million a year you need to stop the deluge of bullshit about accidents and fires and emerald mine and so on.

The same is ultimately true of things like service too-- there's a TAM of "people that will buy a car where they can't easily talk to a human directly about service" that is smaller than the TAM of "people that will buy a car" and you'll hit that point eventually- I don't know at what # you hit it, but almost certainly well before the 20 mil/yr Tesla hopes to sell.

FWIW--Tesla does spend money on marketing-- this has been more obvious in places like China (and stories have been written for several years pointing this out), but it happens a bit in the US too-- it's just more event/influencer/digital focused, not "traditional" advertising like running print or TV broadcast commercials, and the budget is vastly lower than car makers who go the traditional route..... this again works great when you aren't needing to hit a far larger TAM those avenues don't get to- so the only question is how far ahead of that curve one needs to be and when- and probably we've got a while before that needs to change, 3/Y seem to keep selling with no trouble with deep backorders, and CT is sure likely to as is semi (entirely different market there anyway)--- so now we're up to unannounced products before it's potentially an issue.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gary Black on Twitter: "Key takeaways from @elonmusk interview with Bloomberg at Qatar Economic Forum. $tsla" / Twitter

 

[Nocturnal]

I think Elon is basically one of those people who is so intelligent, he has reverse dunning-kruger, where he assumes everyone is intelligent, open-minded and analytical like he is. BUT THEY ARE NOT! In fact very few people are.

Very much this. Elon would be well served by keeping this quote in mind.

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."
-George Carlin

It's been argued to death but brands need care over time. Being dogmatically opposed to any traditional business practices is just as bad as being dogmatically supportive of those practices.

I mean honestly given the amount of attacks Tesla get constantly, more than any automaker, it is leading by an order of magnitude in market cap compared to those companies which has billion dollars spend in pr yearly. The proof is in the pudding that these attacks make about zero difference and Tesla just ends up living rent free in the mind of everyone.

That's been true up to 1-2 million worth of demand a year, but will that hold true to 20 million? Product quality and cost are #1, but there is nothing to say that some intelligent "nudging" of the brand/public image wouldn't be worthwhile.

 

[lascavarian]

J B Straubel appearing on CNBC next.

Announcing a deal with Toyota for recycling Prius packs.

 

[ZeApelido]

Childhood obesity rates are climbing at a terrific rate

Are you a Weight Watchers' investor?

 

[MD70]

I am grateful for interviews with Musk but I wish the interviewers would do some homework. Musk has said a million times that they are supply constrained.
I wish someone would ask him what are they doing specifically to increase production and when he expects the new factory’s to be producing half a million vehicles each and when he expects mass production of the cybertruck and semi.

 

[wtlloyd]

.....
It's been argued to death but brands need care over time. Being dogmatically opposed to any traditional business practices is just as bad as being dogmatically supportive of those practices.

That's been true up to 1-2 million worth of demand a year, but will that hold true to 20 million? Product quality and cost are #1, but there is nothing to say that some intelligent "nudging" of the brand/public image wouldn't be worthwhile.

By the time Tesla hit 10 million/yr production, everyone will have ridden in a Tesla at least once. Everyone.
And, everyone will know a friend, neighbor, co-worker or relative who has one. Everyone.