Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Twitter and GM have about the same mkt cap, i don’t think even Musk could turn GM around.
Unions, dealers, and the actual product make it very hard.

Can you clarify what your point is here?

Because it sounds like you’re equating an identical market cap between two different companies as meaning that those two companies are also equal in every other business way, including future value.

And there’s no way you mean that, right!?

 

[Krugerrand]

Ok, so no other opinion is allowed. Understood.

?

Feel free to opinion away, but don’t get your feelings hurt when everyone disagrees with it. It’s an incorrect opinion because literally Elon has repeatedly said Tesla will only ever advertise if/when it makes sense. The company is nowhere near the if/when and won’t be for the foreseeable future. We’ve discussed at length the why of that here. If you think it would be helpful, I can list the reasons.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Keep the infighting up guys.....it keeps sending the stock higher!

We'll be up 20% in no time after another weekend like the past one

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So some of these are probably cars made but not delivered during the recent Covid shutdowns in Shanghai?

Since it says delivered - not produced.

Yes, it's delivered, not produce. But it doesn't matter. Shanghai, as with most of the previous locked down areas in China have been back to normal for a couple weeks now. Any left over production from April/May when lockdowns were in effect has already been delivered by now. But even then, that number was tiny because by far almost all production went to exports.

So this number IF it's actually true, is very bullish for Shanghai. In terms of why I think the pace of deliveries will increase in the final two weeks is that the time between vehicle produced to vehicle delivered will shrink rapidly, since all production in the last 2 weeks is for local deliveries and production in the last week is for the closest local deliveries.

 

[Drax7]

Can you clarify what your point is here?

Because it sounds like you’re equating an identical market cap between two different companies as meaning that those two companies are also equal in every other business way, including future value.

And there’s no way you mean that, right!?

Elon could have bought GM instead of twitter ……
but it never crossed his mind for obvious reasons

 

[Gigapress]

Gas Prices Increase Tesla Demand Part 2

People mainly care about gas prices. When gas prices spike, they start researching EVs and many of them place orders for Teslas and force Tesla to raise prices again.

The chart below illustrates not only that the timing of price increases aligns with gas price spikes and with the related Google searches I showed a few days ago, but also that the largest Tesla price increases happened in March when the largest gas price increases occurred.

I challenge anyone who hypothesizes that Elon's politics, Twitter acquisition, etc. are negatively affecting demand substantially to bring forth actual data to demonstrate that. If you do not have any such data, please stop cluttering the thread with inflammatory and mod-prohibited opinions based on your feelings and anecdotal experiences. Remember, as Dr Feynman said, the easiest person to fool is yourself. This is a place for science. Thank you.

Note: The vertical axis starts at $1.50/gallon, not $0. This is the EIA's chart, not mine. My red annotations indicate when US Tesla prices increased.

Source link

Source: Rob Maurer, Tesla Daily (link)

 

[damonbrodie]

What are the upcoming news dates for Tesla?

early July? - Q2 Produced/Delivered report?
7/20/22 - Q2 Earnings Announcement
8/4/2022 - Annual Shareholder Meeting
9/30/2022 - Tesla AI Day 2

Anything else of significance?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What are the upcoming news dates for Tesla?

early July? - Q2 Produced/Delivered report?
7/20/22 - Q2 Earnings Announcement
8/4/2022 - Annual Shareholder Meeting
9/30/2022 - Tesla AI Day 2

Anything else of significance?

July 2nd is P/D number. Tesla might announce earnings date with the P/D numbers like the did for the first time in Q1......which in hindsight meant very bullish things.

Only thing missing is the actual stock split. Probably beginning of Sept.

 

[Rarity]

The negotiations between Indonesia and Tesla seem to be continuing apace. This is now a negotiation among principals, so it looks like it could be a beneficial and suitably large deal. But it is clear that the outlines of a deal haven't yet been determined.

“We had a lot of discussions, particularly on how Tesla can build their industry from upstream to downstream, end-to end starting from smelter then build the cathode and precursor industry, build EV batteries, build lithium batteries [and] then the vehicle factory. Everything in Indonesia, because that’s very efficient. That’s what I offered,” Widodo told CNBC in an exclusive interview on Friday in Serang city in Banten province.

He said Musk sent a team to Indonesia six weeks ago “to check the potential of nickel, to check environmental aspects, but the car-related team has not come.”

He said a team could visit in the “near future” to evaluate the potential. Jokowi, who has also invited Musk to the G-20 summit, which Indonesia is hosting this year in Bali, said there is “no decision yet” on Tesla’s plans to invest in Indonesia.

Jokowi lays out his pitch for why Elon Musk should invest in Indonesia

Indonesia has abundant natural deposits of tin, copper, nickel, cobalt and bauxite, some of which are key materials for electric vehicle batteries.

www.cnbc.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Surprised they have not halted $TSLA yet

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Curious to get everyone's opinions as to whether the P&D Q2 numbers will have a positive or negative impact on the short term stock price.

Will they be taken in context of Shanghai shutdown or at face value? Knowing how fickle the market is I can see it going either way.

Dan

 

[oldTAVguy]

Tesla getting out ahead in the materials for our energy future, SMR reviewing Drew interview at Stanford...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I follow a handful of tech stocks (MSFT, AAPL, GOOG) very closely, and for the past year or so, they more or less move similar to TSLA. Currently MSFT, AAPL, and GOOG are about 75% of their all time high, while TSLA is about 58% of its all time high. That makes me think TSLA has been oversold, or there has been a major disconnect between them for some reason.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Curious to get everyone's opinions as to whether the P&D Q2 numbers will have a positive or negative impact on the short term stock price.

Will they be taken in context of Shanghai shutdown or at face value? Knowing how fickle the market is I can see it going either way.

Dan

TSLAQ will ignore Shanghai shutdown and claim this is proof that demand is falling. Everyone else will take Shanghai closing into account. I think the latter group is prepared for some ugly numbers, so anything not super ugly (275K+) will be viewed as a positive.

 

[ZachF]

Curious to get everyone's opinions as to whether the P&D Q2 numbers will have a positive or negative impact on the short term stock price.

Will they be taken in context of Shanghai shutdown or at face value? Knowing how fickle the market is I can see it going either way.

Dan

This is why I think Tesla will likely mention they left the quarter with production at a record pace (probably over 1.5m annualized). That’s the more important number going forward.

 

[wtlloyd]

I follow a handful of tech stocks (MSFT, AAPL, GOOG) very closely, and for the past year or so, they more or less move similar to TSLA. Currently they are about 75% off their all time high, while TSLA is about 58% of its all time high. That makes me think TSLA has been oversold, or there has been a major disconnect between them for some reason.

Just to be clear, a slight typo? You meant M, A, G are at 75% of all time high, yes?

 

[wnorris]

For those of you in or around the New Orleans area. Tesla's Autopilot team is there at the Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR) conference. They appear to have brought the Cybertruck with them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539265765051875328

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Just to be clear, a slight typo? You meant M, A, G are at 75% of all time high, yes?

yes. fixed. I meant "of" not "off". thanks

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Curious to get everyone's opinions as to whether the P&D Q2 numbers will have a positive or negative impact on the short term stock price.

Will they be taken in context of Shanghai shutdown or at face value? Knowing how fickle the market is I can see it going either way.

Dan

I think Tesla will do at least 270k, which will be viewed positive.

But regardless of the actual number, it's really going to be what Tesla says in the details. If they say things like

- Shanghai hit new record production in June
- Reiterate 50% growth for 2022
- Give targets for production for Austin/Berlin for Q3
- Announce another early earnings date (would be interpreted as bullish)

The last part I think could very well happen and what @The Accountant pointed out a few days ago about Tesla's IR head proactively making a twitter comment on margins and Tesla's ability to drop costs through efficiency makes me believe we're in store for a very nice surprise when it comes to earnings. At least when it comes to margins. The bitcoin thing is gonna limit the upside in terms of actual earnings/profits.

 

[Knightshade]

Curious to get everyone's opinions as to whether the P&D Q2 numbers will have a positive or negative impact on the short term stock price.

Will they be taken in context of Shanghai shutdown or at face value? Knowing how fickle the market is I can see it going either way.

Dan

I expect tons of FUD stories about how production dropped significantly for the first quarter in forever--- there's kinda 2 questions here though:


1) How much is lower PD "already priced in"

2) What lower # is it that's priced in, such that if it's significantly higher or lower than that it'll move the share price


This gets into tea leaf reading though as it requires stacking assumptions to get any actionable guesses out of it.