Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

Franco our Twitter ship tracker missed a ship back in May.
He has now added Morning Peace which departed Shanghai on May 22 and arrives in Barcelona June 23.
Looks as if Tesla is asking customers to pick up at ports as the ship was delayed due to maintenance.
After Barcelona on June 23, it is expected to arrive at Southampton UK on June 28th (tight).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

All I want to know: Is @StarFoxisDown! finally happy that TSLA is outpeforming macros enough??

View attachment 819231

Consider me mildly amused........(I still think a FUD hit piece is incoming sometime between now and July 1st)

 

[mongo]

I see now why Musk wanted a bulldog legal team. The frivolous lawsuits keep coming:

Tesla sued by former employees over 'mass layoff'

Former Tesla Inc employees have filed a lawsuit against the U.S. electric car company alleging its decision to carry out a "mass layoff" violated federal law as the company did not provide advance notice of the job cuts.

www.reuters.com

I did some digging into this, and I don't think Tesla's layoffs count:

https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/ETA/Layoff/pdfs/_EmployerWARN2003.pdf

Specifically, page 5:
View attachment 819228

The Reuters article says the suit claims more than 500 employees were laid off in Sparks, NV. Be interesting to see if Tesla actually did less than 500 during any 30-day period or not.

However, there is also a 90 day window to deal with:

WARN also looks at the employment losses that occur over a 90-day period. An employer is required to give advance notice if it has a series of small terminations or layoffs, none of which individually would be covered under WARN but which add up to numbers that would require WARN notice. An employer is not required to give notice if it can show that the individual events occurred as a result of separate and distinct actions and causes and are not an attempt to evade WARN.

Edit: note that WARN only requires 60 days notice or 60 days salary+benefits if notice not given. So 2 months severance covers Tesla, if WARN applies.

An employer who violates WARN is liable to each affected employee for an amount equal to back pay and benefits for the period of violation, up to 60 days. This liability may be reduced by any wages the employer pays over the notice period. WARN liability may also be reduced by any voluntary and unconditional payment not required by a legal obligation. An employer who fails to provide notice as required to a unit of local government is subject to a civil penalty not to exceed $500 for each day of violation. The penalty may be avoided if the employer satisfies its liability to each affected employee within three weeks after the closing. In any suit, the court, in its discretion, may allow the prevailing party a reasonable attorney's fee as part of the costs.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

I think Tesla will do at least 270k, which will be viewed positive.

But regardless of the actual number, it's really going to be what Tesla says in the details. If they say things like

- Shanghai hit new record production in June
- Reiterate 50% growth for 2022
- Give targets for production for Austin/Berlin for Q3
- Announce another early earnings date (would be interpreted as bullish)

The last part I think could very well happen and what @The Accountant pointed out a few days ago about Tesla's IR head proactively making a twitter comment on margins and Tesla's ability to drop costs through efficiency makes me believe we're in store for a very nice surprise when it comes to earnings. At least when it comes to margins. The bitcoin thing is gonna limit the upside in terms of actual earnings/profits.

Concerning Q2 numbers, if they are down, even down more than expectations, due to the Shanghai shutdown-who cares. It's a one-time hit, due to factors completely outside of Tesla's control. It doesn't indicate a fundamental problem with the company, their product or demand for the product (though I'm sure the FUD-packers will try to link it). If numbers are down, so what? If they are flat, let alone up, fantastic. But really, it's Q3 and beyond that will be the telling quarters, and by all accounts, based on current news they should be blowout. Granted, things can change quickly depending on just how severe the recession is and what the response is. But even then, the fundamentals of the company are extremely sound and compared to legacy, I'd expect Tesla to emerge from a recession stronger than ever. They don't have the debt issues of legacy.

 

[wipster]

Before we get too excited...reality is:

$TSLA +10.5%
$RIVN + 12.5%

That's what happens when the stock price is low ($29.80). One of the reasons I'm looking forward to the split!

 

[Favguy]

...or more experienced drivers. Swing axles are inherently unstable but they were CHEAP. Remember the VW technology was cheap car 1930's. For the Corvair no excuse. I still am grateful that I never charted either one even though I drove both with unwise enthusiasm. The Corvair Monza Spyder was enormous fun, the one I did not crash soon was crashed by the former owner; former because he did not survive.

The 2020 equivalent might be skipping the exotic quality control and BMS on Lithium ion batteries, just depend on the vendor (as in B787, Chevrolet Bolt; (dis)honorable mention to Hyundai, Porsche et al).

This ought to remind us of the enormous value we get from the Tesla safety obsession. One can still kill oneself in one but really must try very hard to do it.

I don't need to remember, I actually own a 1954 VW, It's lovely, but will gladly kill anyone who takes it for granted, or tries to drive it like a more modern car. One hilarious dangerous feature is the earlier, none anti burst door latches. My wife experienced first hand just why they got changed from '55 on! Driving the car a few years back, as I made a right turn, we hit a large pothole I'd not seen, the jolt caused the passenger door latch (left side as we're RHD) to pop open, letting the door swing wide open just as the wife simultaneously slid across the smooth flat leatherette seat (no belts) on her way out the car! I managed to reach over with my left arm and grab on to her for dear life just in time.

Sorry, off topic, but it's quite a funny story, looking back.

 

[StealthP3D]

Consider me mildly amused........(I still think a FUD hit piece is incoming sometime between now and July 1st)

You are predicting a TSLA FUD hit piece sometime in the next 10 days? Does that mean the sun will also rise on at least one of those days?

 

[Favguy]

I'd rather there not be a change in price. If that's an option.
Just sayin'

Might be a tad optimistic, but I'm pretty sure we won't be waiting too long before we're at 700+ again post split and Curt is posting Oompah band vids once more.

 

[redan]

Not news to us, but nice to see in any event:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539306998088749056

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539320555849007110

 

[EVDRVN]

You are predicting a TSLA FUD hit piece sometime in the next 10 days? Does that mean the sun will also rise on at least one of those days?

I saw Fred posting some on Twitter today I believe. Could not find it again.

 

[wtlloyd]

I don't need to remember, I actually own a 1954 VW, It's lovely, but will gladly kill anyone who takes it for granted, or tries to drive it like a more modern car. One hilarious dangerous feature is the earlier, none anti burst door latches. My wife experienced first hand just why they got changed from '55 on! Driving the car a few years back, as I made a right turn, we hit a large pothole I'd not seen, the jolt caused the passenger door latch (left side as we're RHD) to pop open, letting the door swing wide open just as the wife simultaneously slid across the smooth flat leatherette seat (no belts) on her way out the car! I managed to reach over with my left arm and grab on to her for dear life just in time.

Sorry, off topic, but it's quite a funny story, looking back.

Yes, I imagine she is still laughing

 

[FlatSix911]

Not news to us, but nice to see in any event:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539306998088749056

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539320555849007110

More information here from Electrek...

Tesla dominates the list of most American-made cars

Tesla dominates the list of most American-made cars, now with the Model Y taking the top spot on the 2022...

electrek.co

Tesla already took the first place last year with the Model 3, but they have now released their 2022 list,
and Tesla dominates it this year with the number 1 and 2 spots and four vehicles in the top 10:

Rank	Make/Model	U.S. Assembly Location
1.	Tesla Model Y	Fremont, Calif., Austin, Texas
2.	Tesla Model 3	Fremont, Calif.
3.	Lincoln Corsair	Louisville, Ky.
4.	Honda Passport	Lincoln, Ala.
5.	Tesla Model X	Fremont, Calif.
6.	Tesla Model S	Fremont, Calif.
7.	Jeep Cherokee	Belvidere, Ill.
8.	Honda Ridgeline	Lincoln, Ala.
9.	Honda Odyssey	Lincoln, Ala.
10.	Honda Pilot	Lincoln, Ala.

 

[larmor]

You are predicting a TSLA FUD hit piece sometime in the next 10 days? Does that mean the sun will also rise on at least one of those days?

You are predicting a TSLA FUD hit piece sometime in the next 10 days minutes? Does that mean the sun will also rise on at least one of those days?

 

[Favguy]

Yes, I imagine she is still laughing

Well, it wasn't funny at the time, but immediately afterwards we both burst out laughing. It was only at low speed with no other traffic about thankfully.

 

[Ogre]

You are predicting a TSLA FUD hit piece sometime in the next 10 days? Does that mean the sun will also rise on at least one of those days?

You live in the PNW... are you sure the sun will rise on those days?

 

[Krugerrand]

More information here from Electrek...

Tesla dominates the list of most American-made cars

Tesla dominates the list of most American-made cars, now with the Model Y taking the top spot on the 2022...

electrek.co

Tesla already took the first place last year with the Model 3, but they have now released their 2022 list,
and Tesla dominates it this year with the number 1 and 2 spots and four vehicles in the top 10:

Rank	Make/Model	U.S. Assembly Location
1.	Tesla Model Y	Fremont, Calif., Austin, Texas
2.	Tesla Model 3	Fremont, Calif.
3.	Lincoln Corsair	Louisville, Ky.
4.	Honda Passport	Lincoln, Ala.
5.	Tesla Model X	Fremont, Calif.
6.	Tesla Model S	Fremont, Calif.
7.	Jeep Cherokee	Belvidere, Ill.
8.	Honda Ridgeline	Lincoln, Ala.
9.	Honda Odyssey	Lincoln, Ala.
10.	Honda Pilot	Lincoln, Ala.

Honda; more American than Ford or GM.

 

[Stretch2727]

I was driving in traffic today in front of a Mustang e-thing for several miles, I kept looking back at it through the rear camera……….main thought was I wonder if he’s looking at my S thinking he made a big mistake. (Used male pronoun since I think most women are smart enough to avoid Fords.)

I spent some time on the Mustang forums trying to understand the contactor issue better. It appears this has been known issue for a while as several owners had failures.

The consensus amongst the owners was:

1. Avoid WOT. (Wide Open Throttle)
2. Avoid DC fast charging.
3. A lot of worry on the shortening of the 5 sec limit for WOT which existed since the car has be launched. That shortening of this time maybe the "software" fix Ford plans.

My take.

A Mustang that can not do WOT is not a Mustang. Ford decided on the Mustang name and it should really live up to the heritage. Honestly hope Ford gets its act together.

 

[Todd Burch]

I spent some time on the Mustang forums trying to understand the contractor issue better. It appears this has been known issue for a while as several owners had failures.

The consensus amongst the owners was:

1. Avoid WOT. (Wide Open Throttle)
2. Avoid DC fast charging.
3. A lot of worry on the shortening of the 5 sec limit for WOT which existed since the car has be launched. That shortening of this time maybe the "software" fix Ford plans.

My take.

A Mustang that can not do WOT is not a Mustang. Ford decided on the Mustang name and it should really live up to the heritage. Honestly hope Ford gets its act together.

Yeah, if the issue is undersized contactors, a software fix can only do so much. This is going to handicap the Mach-E's performance further. Not a good look unless they do a full hardware recall and replace with better contactors (which is also not a good look).

And these cars aren't even that old yet. They've made quite a few to be discovering such an elementary issue so late in the process. It's going to cost them quite a bit to fix.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah, if the issue is undersized contactors, a software fix can only do so much. This is going to handicap the Mach-E's performance further. Not a good look unless they do a full hardware recall and replace with better contactors (which is also not a good look).

And these cars aren't even that old yet. They've made quite a few to be discovering such an elementary issue so late in the process. It's going to cost them quite a bit to fix.

Cool, can't wait to race one.

 

[Ogre]

Yeah, if the issue is undersized contactors, a software fix can only do so much. This is going to handicap the Mach-E's performance further. Not a good look unless they do a full hardware recall and replace with better contactors (which is also not a good look).

Not sure a software only fix will even be legal. These cars are sold based on performance. If the cars no longer perform the way they were advertised due to a manufacturer change, there will be legal ramifications. Most likely a short term software fix and longer term a hardware fix will be required. Otherwise there will be a big lawsuit.