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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This place sure changed. Like someone turned on the light and all the cockroaches were gone in 3 sec flat. (Actually a memory from living in Fla).
It was the moderators experiment shining the light on the dark corners of our souls. It gave us collectively a moment of reflection and deep soul searching.

It was as if the winds of change blew through the forums and swept away all dark thoughts and troublesome demons.

—Or—

Market opened and the SP took off like a rocket.

One or the other of those things.
 
1. Avoid WOT. (Wide Open Throttle)
2. Avoid DC fast charging.
3. A lot of worry on the shortening of the 5 sec limit for WOT which existed since the car has be launched. That shortening of this time maybe the "software" fix Ford plans.
My Take:

Consumer reports will still put it way ahead of Tesla on it's "Reliability" rankings because it has 0.1% fewer paint chips.
 
Not sure a software only fix will even be legal. These cars are sold based on performance. If the cars no longer perform the way they were advertised due to a manufacturer change, there will be legal ramifications. Most likely a short term software fix and longer term a hardware fix will be required. Otherwise there will be a big lawsuit.
Oh, perhaps that's why the 5 sec max for WOT, plenty of time to hit a 0-60 spec. What other spec is in question? Not sure it fails legally, but sure would frustrate me as a consumer. I could see a class action, but that will likely be many moons from now.
 
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Oh, perhaps that's why the 5 sec max for WOT, plenty of time to hit a 0-60 spec. What other spec is in question? Not sure it fails legally, but sure would frustrate me as a consumer. I could see a class action, but that will likely be many moons from now.
Allow for longer WOT when the car detects that it is being tested by regulators (or journalists), and go back to shortened WOT in daily driving. VW can show them how to.
 
Allow for longer WOT when the car detects that it is being tested by regulators (or journalists), and go back to shortened WOT in daily driving. VW can show them how to.

Now we know what this was REALLY about!

Ford has a real mess on their hands with the Mach E issue though. The OTA fix will likely cripple the car in some way, maybe enough for legal action by owners. A massive recall to actually fix the issue is incredibly expensive and will take months if not a year to get through everything.
 
Oh, perhaps that's why the 5 sec max for WOT, plenty of time to hit a 0-60 spec. What other spec is in question? Not sure it fails legally, but sure would frustrate me as a consumer. I could see a class action, but that will likely be many moons from now.
Hard to say, I just recall a couple years back, Apple had a hardware defect in one of their phones where it was crashing and they "Fixed" it by throttling the CPU sooner and there was a big lawsuit over it.

If the above post is correct sounds like high speed charging would also be affected which is a much bigger problem than quarter mile times.
 
Gas Prices Increase Tesla Demand Part 2

People mainly care about gas prices. When gas prices spike, they start researching EVs and many of them place orders for Teslas and force Tesla to raise prices again.

The chart below illustrates not only that the timing of price increases aligns with gas price spikes and with the related Google searches I showed a few days ago, but also that the largest Tesla price increases happened in March when the largest gas price increases occurred.

I challenge anyone who hypothesizes that Elon's politics, Twitter acquisition, etc. are negatively affecting demand substantially to bring forth actual data to demonstrate that. If you do not have any such data, please stop cluttering the thread with inflammatory and mod-prohibited opinions based on your feelings and anecdotal experiences. Remember, as Dr Feynman said, the easiest person to fool is yourself. This is a place for science. Thank you.

Note: The vertical axis starts at $1.50/gallon, not $0. This is the EIA's chart, not mine. My red annotations indicate when US Tesla prices increased.


View attachment 819169

Source link

View attachment 819173
Source: Rob Maurer, Tesla Daily (link)
Upon review it should be noted that I omitted a red circle in the first half of 2021 when some modest Tesla vehicle price increases occurred, as indicated in Rob Maurer’s table.

This does correspond with the rising gas prices during that time, but those prices were still within a range people were already accustomed to paying in recent memory ($2-3/gallon). My conjecture is that most people expected a return to normalcy after the pandemic temporarily dropped gas prices to lows not seen in a long time, but they did not expect prices of more than $3/gallon and that’s when the pain began.

The unprecedented March 2022 explosion of search interest for gas prices, energy independence, EVs and charging costs after the Russian military forces crossed the border directly corresponds with the huge wave of Tesla price hikes after as the sudden reduction of oil supply percolated to downstream gas prices a few weeks later (there is a lag in the petroleum—>gas station supply chain). As the linked EIA data shows, the situation tangibly hit American drivers in the wallet in the second week of March when gas prices skyrocketed from $3.60 to $4.10 and then $4.30 the next week. These were the very same two weeks that search interest blew up and consumers stampeded Tesla.com to place orders.

If you observe how American consumers historically responded to the 1970s oil crisis and the 2003-2008 oil crisis, there’s clearly a major psychological effect making people reevaluate their purchasing decisions when prices at the pump are currently high. Much of this effect is temporary and mostly irrational but it is predictable. We know most consumers aren’t great at calculating total cost of ownership and they usually place excessive emphasis on current fuel prices.

In any case, this body of objective evidence builds a strong case that high fuel prices are overwhelmingly the main bait that makes people want to learn about EVs and Teslas, and we know all the other reasons why what they learn ends up being so compelling as to make them want to buy one.
 
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Now we know what this was REALLY about!

Ford has a real mess on their hands with the Mach E issue though. The OTA fix will likely cripple the car in some way, maybe enough for legal action by owners. A massive recall to actually fix the issue is incredibly expensive and will take months if not a year to get through everything.
Definitely requires a complete battery pull if they need to change out the contactors for upsized capacity. There is not access under the rear seat like the Model 3 and I believe other Tesla's. There was one owner that had documented a contactor replacement (not fix) with pictures with the battery out and lots of other things taken apart to get to it.
 
Corvair/Nader posts that do not deal with Tesla are Unsafe at Any Speed.

Well there was this: (Jan 23, 2020)

"Tesla will mark the beginning of the end for this bull market", warns Ralph Nader | Marketwatch.com

... or these tweets (Jan 26, 2020) - Nader got that wrong, $AMC + $GME burst the bubble

Ralph-Nader-Tesla-Deep-in-debt.2020-01-22.png


... or this from CNBC: (Feb 5, 2020)


Summarized in my 'Nader folly' comment (Feb 4, 2022):

Ralph Nader, "short stooge of Citadel LLC and JPMoargas" | Q1 2020 links | TMC Investors Roundtable

TL;dr Ralph is unsafe at any speed for your portfolio. :p

Cheers to the Longs!
 
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In any case, this body of objective evidence builds a strong case that high fuel prices are overwhelmingly the main bait that makes people want to learn about EVs and Teslas, and we know all the other reasons why what they learn ends up being so compelling as to make them want to buy one.
It's very interesting because this maps out so well to the rise in sales of compact cars during the early 80s during the oil crisis.

The obvious difference being the fact that the cost to operate a Tesla is almost completely detached from the cost of oil. So not only are the vehicle sales pushing hard towards EVs, but the tolerance for higher priced vehicles is increasing as well.

The big question mark in my head is if/ when oil prices come down what happens to consumer's willingness to pay up for a Tesla?

Might see a bit of softening demand if gas prices drop too much.
 
I spent some time on the Mustang forums trying to understand the contactor issue better. It appears this has been known issue for a while as several owners had failures.

The consensus amongst the owners was:

1. Avoid WOT. (Wide Open Throttle)
2. Avoid DC fast charging.
3. A lot of worry on the shortening of the 5 sec limit for WOT which existed since the car has be launched. That shortening of this time maybe the "software" fix Ford plans.

My take.

A Mustang that can not do WOT is not a Mustang. Ford decided on the Mustang name and it should really live up to the heritage. Honestly hope Ford gets its act together.
I don't think I'd be driving/own a Tesla if it had a 5 sec WOT limitation. I literally do this everyday...multiple times...it is my joy.

And if Ford does further limit WOT, I think a class action is inevitable.
 
I don't think I'd be driving/own a Tesla if it had a 5 sec WOT limitation. I literally do this everyday...multiple times...it is my joy.

And if Ford does further limit WOT, I think a class action is inevitable.
It would be really annoying for sure, and I probably wouldn't own one either.

That said, I think the charging actually has more of a chance to nerf the car. It already has a pretty bad charging curve, if they have to nerf that further... it is going to be really tough to compete with the Y, Ionic 5, Kia whatever they call it, etc. I frankly can't come up with a good reason why you'd pick the Mach E over Ionic 5 unless you are just a pure Ford fanboy (and I've owned a number of Fords in my life). Let alone the Y.
 
Something I haven't seen discussed in terms of Tesla insurance are customer acquisition costs. These vary from $500 per customer to $1k per customer (direct insurance vs agents). This represents up to 8% of net profits.

Anyone want to take a guess at Tesla's cost to acquire new customers? I'd think it's well under $100, probably under $50.

Is today a dead cat bounce? I wanted to buy more at $400 or maybe even $300.
Hoping for a large drop in coming weeks.
Usually I ask the internet questions, not the other way around.
 
It's very interesting because this maps out so well to the rise in sales of compact cars during the early 80s during the oil crisis.

The obvious difference being the fact that the cost to operate a Tesla is almost completely detached from the cost of oil. So not only are the vehicle sales pushing hard towards EVs, but the tolerance for higher priced vehicles is increasing as well.

The big question mark in my head is if/ when oil prices come down what happens to consumer's willingness to pay up for a Tesla?

Might see a bit of softening demand if gas prices drop too much.
The sad part is when gas prices go down for a week, consumers tend to forget the high prices and go back to the gas guzzlers only to be shocked when gas prices rise again (as if gas prices were never high before). Of course, the smart ones buy Teslas then.