Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

The sad part is when gas prices go down for a week, consumers tend to forget the high prices and go back to the gas guzzlers only to be shocked when gas prices rise again (as if gas prices were never high before). Of course, the smart ones buy Teslas then.

But how smart are we really for purchasing a Tesla not knowing when your delivery date will be

/s

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wait until September and you might get your wish.

Pls DNFTT. TIA.

 

[henchman24]

No, I think by then it'll hit ATH.
Right now, everyone is focused on the disastrous Q2 results. $300 and maybe even $100-$200 seem possible right now. Could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy in real cheap and ride it back up to $1000.

If Tesla hits $300 (without a split)... it'll be because the economy is a tire fire and nothing to do with Tesla. In that case a ride back to 1000 will take a while.

That said, when the split happens, you can likely get in during the 300s.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I for one welcome our new carebear

 

[Nocturnal]

It's very interesting because this maps out so well to the rise in sales of compact cars during the early 80s during the oil crisis.

The obvious difference being the fact that the cost to operate a Tesla is almost completely detached from the cost of oil. So not only are the vehicle sales pushing hard towards EVs, but the tolerance for higher priced vehicles is increasing as well.

The big question mark in my head is if/ when oil prices come down what happens to consumer's willingness to pay up for a Tesla?

Might see a bit of softening demand if gas prices drop too much.

If you believe that "butts in seats" sell EVs and Teslas in particular, then more owners raving about their massive savings and enjoyment should offset that.

 

[traxila]

I sold all my 750 shares are $1,150 last year.

I was planning on buying in, but the Shanghai shutdown came. Because the market is always behind when it comes to Tesla, I don't think they will give Tesla the benefit of the doubt for Q3 and Q4. Q2 could be disastrous with bitcoin impairment charges and the market might run with the narrative that Tesla is done.
That could lead to a crash to $300 and maybe even to $100. It'll take Q3 numbers to shift the narrative back.

If you do not think that Q2 is already priced in to a large extent.... well you are wrong.

I can see 500 or even 400 if the economy continues to stroke out, but to see the numbers you are talking about would require company specific disasters along the line of Tesla suddenly making more cars than it can sell. This may happen.... around 2030 or so.

 

[WattsHappening]

That was for me a record for the quickest 'Ignore' member click.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If you do not think that Q2 is already priced in to a large extent.... well you are wrong.

I can see 500 or even 400 if the economy continues to stroke out, but to see the numbers you are talking about would require company specific disasters along the line of Tesla suddenly making more cars than it can sell. This may happen.... around 2030 or so.

So when VW overtakes Tesla.....got it

 

[BornToFly]

How am I a bear? I think Tesla will be the worlds largest company.
How can tesla go up when Q2 results are bad and the powerful people run with narrative that tesla will go bankrupt? Their forecasts will come down and PE will compress.
You think people at the top want tesla stock to go higher when they’re enjoying the options premium and shorting the stock?

Q2 will still show the best profit margins in the industry, and massive free cash flow (not to mention massive increase in production and sales YOY). Nobody with more than two brain cells believes Tesla will go bankrupt at this point. They have orders almost a year out, no debt, Billions in the bank, and Billions coming in every quarter. It is not possible for them to go bankrupt.

 

[bkp_duke]

If Tesla hits $300 (without a split)... it'll be because the economy is a tire fire and nothing to do with Tesla. In that case a ride back to 1000 will take a while.

That said, when the split happens, you can likely get in during the 300s.

Agreed. At $300 pre-split we are talking a valuation that only includes . . . cash on hand.

Bit of hyperbolae on my part, but not that month TBH.

 

[Ogre]

The sad part is when gas prices go down for a week, consumers tend to forget the high prices and go back to the gas guzzlers only to be shocked when gas prices rise again (as if gas prices were never high before). Of course, the smart ones buy Teslas then.

Fortunately once people own a Tesla it is incredibly difficult going back. It makes them kind of infectious. One person in the house gets a Tesla.. then the spouses fight over who gets to drive the Tesla until they get a second one. They have children who hit driving age and they don't even know how to operate a gas pump. Tesla is a one-way filter. A few might drift over to other EVs, but most are stuck.

Also... Tesla does have a few levers they can pull to bring prices down.

But how smart are we really for purchasing a Tesla not knowing when your delivery date will be

I bought mine and picked it up 4 days later. Somehow hit the magic window... Wish I'd done as well buying my TSLA shares

EDIT:

If you believe that "butts in seats" sell EVs and Teslas in particular, then more owners raving about their massive savings and enjoyment should offset that.

I typed the above before I saw your post. Suffice to say I fully agree.

 

[Skryll]

The sad part is when gas prices go down for a week, consumers tend to forget the high prices and go back to the gas guzzlers only to be shocked when gas prices rise again (as if gas prices were never high before). Of course, the smart ones buy Teslas then.

I imagine that part of the demand uptick is not that suddenly a $50k car makes sense to people that wouldn't spend that much before, it is more that because of high gas prices people start taking a closer look beyond the media bs about what it actually would mean to own a Tesla, and how satisfied neighbors are that are driving one. I think its more about knowledge spreading than about pain of the high gas price alone.

 

[Baumisch]

Hard to say, I just recall a couple years back, Apple had a hardware defect in one of their phones where it was crashing and they "Fixed" it by throttling the CPU sooner and there was a big lawsuit over it.

If the above post is correct sounds like high speed charging would also be affected which is a much bigger problem than quarter mile times.

Sitting In the glass house with rocks ….

Thinking of the charge gate ota on all 85 packs to get over the warranty period and make sure to only give refurb packs to sc01 suc-flat customers while simultaneously pushing cheap mcu2 units that lock owners out of gateway to purchase and swap batteries from parts bin market …. we are suing already in Germany but don’t have group lawsuits, every owner needs to sue …

just wanted to give perspective that tesla is guilty here too (this crap is pushing us owners to Ukrainian\russiam hacker services that charge 500 bucks remotely for every time they hack the mcu and change the gateway config … such a shady business that could be avoided if tesla would be more repair friendly on the deep end)

it’s stuff like this that never gets mentioned here but is a real concern if you, like me, want to keep your model s running for 10+ years and can’t even purchase a new battery from tesla parts catalog, like every other vendor allows while simultaneously locking you out from repairs of the car As you can’t change configs … same story for motor swap with mcu 2 or most cheaper parts that need to be dalibrated to the car which needs toolbox access which only tesla has, which is not useful if you wanna maintain the car with used market spare parts ….

 

[Gigapress]

The big question mark in my head is if/ when oil prices come down what happens to consumer's willingness to pay up for a Tesla?

Might see a bit of softening demand if gas prices drop too much.

I anticipate this being more like a ratchet effect with each new person getting educated. EV demand has been far lower than it could’ve been this entire time because of lack of understanding of the benefits over ICE, due to a mixture of lack of awareness and misconceptions.

While there is historical precedent for vehicle purchasers having short memories with respect to gas prices, there’s also good reason to believe that much of this is a permanent shift in consumer preferences. Gas prices appear to have been an impetus for learning, not just for buying. People are Googling about range, charging costs, battery life, home charging, speed and performance. All of this searching peaked in the mid-March and is rising again with gas prices gradually setting new all-time records.

 

[JRP3]

The sad part is when gas prices go down for a week, consumers tend to forget the high prices and go back to the gas guzzlers only to be shocked when gas prices rise again (as if gas prices were never high before). Of course, the smart ones buy Teslas then.

Most people don't have the option to change vehicles as gas prices change and don't have the option to buy Tesla's. Perspective.

 

[Ogre]

Sitting In the glass house with rocks …. Thinking of the charge gate ota on all 85 packs to get over the warranty period and make sure to only give refurb packs to sc01 suc-flat customers while simultaneously pushing cheap mcu2 units that lock owners out of gateway to purchase and swap batteries from parts bin market …. we are suing already … sry, just wanted to give perspective that tesla is guilty here too (this crap is pushing us owners to Ukrainian\russiam hacker services that charge 500 bucks remotely for every time they hack the mcu and change the gateway config … such a shady business that could be avoided if tesla would be more repair friendly on the deep end

I mentioned this a few pages back, but this is the big advantage of Tesla scaling more slowly.

It took Tesla nearly 10 years to get their volume from 0 to 50k/ year. That means when they were making their mistakes, they were producing 100s or 1000s of cars per year. When they had issues, they had to fix/ recall 100s or 1000s of cars.

Ford scaled their production from nearly 0 to 50,000/ year in 1 year. Ford's first big gotcha is a 50,000 vehicle recall.

Legacy auto figured they would just stroll right in and take over. Oops.

 

[Ogre]

I anticipate this being more like a ratchet effect with each new person getting educated. EV demand has been far lower than it could’ve been this entire time because of lack of understanding of the benefits over ICE, due to a mixture of lack of awareness and misconceptions.

While there is historical precedent for vehicle purchasers having short memories with respect to gas prices, there’s also good reason to believe that much of this is a permanent shift in consumer preferences. Gas prices appear to have been an impetus for learning, not just for buying. People are Googling about range, charging costs, battery life, home charging, speed and performance. All of this searching peaked in the mid-March and is rising again with gas prices gradually setting new all-time records.

Definitely agree it's a permanent shift. As I mentioned above, switching to Tesla is a one way trip. Even without the sustainability questions, the vehicle experience is just vastly better.

Right now most Tesla buyers are first time buyers though. Finding people willing to switch when gas prices are high is a lot easier with current fuel prices.

 

[jerry33]

I imagine that part of the demand uptick is not that suddenly a $50k car makes sense to people that wouldn't spend that much before, it is more that because of high gas prices people start taking a closer look beyond the media bs about what it actually would mean to own a Tesla, and how satisfied neighbors are that are driving one. I think its more about knowledge spreading than about pain of the high gas price alone.

The high gas prices just gives them an excuse.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

$TSLA is up 9.35% today...we should be rejoicing for a few hours at least!!... Tough crowd!!!!

 

[jerry33]

$TSLA is up 9.35% today...we should be rejoicing for a few hours at least!!... Tough crowd!!!!

It's similar to the Ukraine. No one celebrates until they recover all the lost territory.