Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[fiveten]

Is there any possibility that prices on the model S, 3, X, and Y will continue to increase and never come back down, but Tesla will start making cyber cars, cyber trucks, and cyber vans at cheaper price points?

 

[larmor]

Wall Street usually likes to use year-on-year comparisons, so even at the lower 250k expectations it would represent solid growth on last years Q2 201k deliveries.

Presumably Tesla will point out the Shanghai disruptions in the P&D release, but also hopefully Tesla mentions end of quarter run rates.

I don’t think they will provide guidance on the P&D however as further Shanghai closures remain an ongoing possibility as long as China maintains its zero-covid policy. For similar reasons I think forward looking statement on the earnings call will be about production capacity expectations rather than actual delivery expectations (with production capacity in the end being the much more important metric)

"Wall Street usually likes to use year-on-year comparisons" except when it comes to Tesla/TSLA because their track record of YOY growth has all ready blown wall street minds...

 

[larmor]

Nothing to rejoice about. We’re easily $500 below where we should be. The SP should reflect the company’s future and financial health. I don’t care if the world is burning, the current SP is not a true or correct reflection of the company in this moment of time. We’re being played and I don’t like it. Show up on my doorstep and I’ll rip these crooks a new pocket for their pocket protectors.

Agreed. Fremont, Reno, Buffalo, Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin-- all factories which even without any other change in product lineup or advancement in of themselves should easily raise the SP point. Fully built factories-- not powerpoint presentations.

 

[MP3Mike]

make sure to only give refurb packs to sc01 suc-flat customers

Why would Tesla owe people any more than a refurbished pack as a warranty replacement? (Refurbished parts are standard in the automotive world for warranty repairs.)

while simultaneously pushing cheap mcu2 units

How dare Tesla offer inexpensive upgrades to vehicle owners to give them more features and faster response times without having to buy a new car.

 

[ZeApelido]

US EV tax credit renewal still in play, but the added union bonus credit is out.

Manchin says EV Tax Credit Bonus Is Gone From Spending Bill

Senate Democrats have scrapped a $4,500 bonus tax credit for electric vehicles made with domestic union labor that was opposed by Senator Joe Manchin as they seek to wrap up negotiations on a spending deal.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Nocturnal]

Another unpopular opinion coming in....

I really respect what Tesla is doing with AI and FSD. But I tend to think that Optimus is several years away. I just don't think that Tesla will have gotten that far ahead of the likes of Boston Dynamics and others on the physical bot front. I think that Tesla is using the bot program to entice high (very high) quality talent to come into Tesla to help finish FSD.

That's not a bad thing, but I'll be happy at AI day 2 to hear that FSD is done (or other very significant milestones). Anything interesting on the bot front will be gravy on the fries.

The hardware isn't the hard part, but I think you are likely at least partially correct. We won't see optimus doing parkour anytime soon. If they can show a robot just walking around and navigating a wearhouse though, that will be a mic drop.

 

[Ogre]

Is there any possibility that prices on the model S, 3, X, and Y will continue to increase and never come back down, but Tesla will start making cyber cars, cyber trucks, and cyber vans at cheaper price points?

Musk called the Cybertruck his and Franz' Magnum Opus.

I strongly believe he was referring not to the singular truck here, but the process by which the Cybertruck will be built. Musk doesn't think about individual vehicles, he thinks about assembly lines and optimizing production. I think that is what Musk is referring to when he talks about it being his Magnum Opus.

The Cybertruck will be exceedingly inexpensive to manufacture for a vehicle it's size. Based on the original pricing, I expect much of that savings will be reflected in the final price.

 

[ZeApelido]

Any decent recovery should put TSLA back over $1000

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539296212976910338

 

[ZeApelido]

Ok I’m now getting this feeling the next earnings report is gonna be bullish.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539399385678856194

 

[MC3OZ]

Latest episode from is Rob well worth watching:-

 

[SOULPEDL]

Are you calling me an exterminator? And is that the same as a retired T-800 or (gulp) T-3000?

I think I missed you're gauntlet, especially why I'm laughing now.
I skip pages, just jump right in! Keeps it fresh, otherwise I'd sound like all y'all.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Does this count?

Apple agrees to $500 million settlement for throttling older iPhones

The deal resolves dozens of “Batterygate” lawsuits

www.theverge.com

No. After all the garbage The Verge reports on Tesla, why would you present any of their reporting as evidence of any kind?

But, in any case the statement was "Apple had a hardware defect in one of their phones where it was crashing and they "Fixed" it by throttling the CPU sooner and there was a big lawsuit over it." Even this report says there was no hardware defect -- the batteries were wearing out and Apple came up with a way to avoid causing any resulting crashes. You know, pretty much exactly the same way Tesla throttled battery charging to avoid more serious problems. It's what responsible engineers do when they have the ability to do a software update.

This entire BS story and pile of lawsuits was about people claiming they bought new phones when they could have instead replaced their batteries. Apple, unlike Tesla, agreed to a settlement to make the BS go away. Apple has years and years more experience dealing with this sort of nonsense. The truth is, of course, that almost everybody who replaces their iPhone battery gets a new iPhone the next year anyway because their old iPhone is not as capable as it once was (relatively speaking).

And most people didn't even notice the slowdown because it happened only occasionally when the phone had to hit the high end of its ability to process. Which for most people happened exactly never. If it hadn't been for all the BS in the media, they never even would have noticed. Just as the engineers intended.

 

[Bet TSLA]

EDIT: I suppose you could argue it wasn't a hardware flaw. I don't think it remotely matters in this context though. Apple lost the lawsuit regardless.

No, what matters is the constant posting of BS here when we should know better. Apple pioneered short seller FUD.

And I'll point out that you are continuing to post stuff that is wrong. Apple didn't lose the lawsuit. They settled. But I guess you'll argue that you "don't think it remotely matters in this context". But, as it turns out, it matters for your credibility.

 

[damonbrodie]

Is there any possibility that prices on the model S, 3, X, and Y will continue to increase and never come back down, but Tesla will start making cyber cars, cyber trucks, and cyber vans at cheaper price points?

I think the prices go up until they start to see some saturation and the wait times start to diminish. From there they can lower prices or introduce new lower cost variants (or combinations thereof).

I think they are raising prices in anticipation of maintaining 30% margin on each car made

 

[Knightshade]

Well, I was a Windows 95 beta tester and I hacked the Mac to run that as well.

By "hacked" do you mean "installed an x86 emulator"?

Because AFAIK it's not possible to run Win95 natively on a 94-95 era PPC CPU that the macs had (let alone the 68k ones common before that).

Are you sure you aren't misremembering seeing/running an early version of Windows NT 4.0 on a PPC Mac? Because there was a PPC native version of that direct from Microsoft.

The local Apple rep heard from my manager what I had done, and came by the next day, boxed up the machine, and shipped it to Cupertino. 2 weeks after Microsoft released Windows 95, I saw my work on an Apple machine claiming to run Windows 95 as well. Was it ground-breaking? No. Would I have liked the rep to stop by, say thanks, give me some free swag? Yep.

Again to my knowledge the only way this ever happened was just running an emulator. Of which there were any number of commercial ones (but were godawful painfully bad/slow on the PPC processors of the time). Nothing was ever commercially offered to run WIn95 natively on those macs because AFAIK that's flat out not possible.


Again I wonder if you aren't confusing 95 with NT4, they did look similar but were quite different under the hood.



And just to try and drag your thread VAGUELY on topic to Tesla Thankfully Tesla has been using x86 compatible CPUs in their infotainment systems so when the eventual "app" store appears it'll be quite easy for content from developments to flood in quickly without need for any silly emulation tricks and the performance hits that come with em.



UNRELATED to emulation-but very related to Tesla BTW, seems to be some talk we'll also get a Shanghai production shutdown for 10-14 days for the retooling in July- with Troy seeming to think it's both 3/Y production closed during that time?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538723550407798784

 

[Thekiwi]

Another unpopular opinion coming in....

I really respect what Tesla is doing with AI and FSD. But I tend to think that Optimus is several years away. I just don't think that Tesla will have gotten that far ahead of the likes of Boston Dynamics and others on the physical bot front. I think that Tesla is using the bot program to entice high (very high) quality talent to come into Tesla to help finish FSD.

That's not a bad thing, but I'll be happy at AI day 2 to hear that FSD is done (or other very significant milestones). Anything interesting on the bot front will be gravy on the fries.

Tesla is light years ahead of Boston Dynamics where it counts: in AI vision based recognition - the hardware is the easy part, the brain is the hard part. FSD & OPTIMUS is using the same AI vision technology - so new AI recruits will essentially be working on both.

 

[Ratanpara]

I think the prices go up until they start to see some saturation and the wait times start to diminish. From there they can lower prices or introduce new lower cost variants (or combinations thereof).

I think they are raising prices in anticipation of maintaining 30% margin on each car made

Price increased is getting crazy but I think current price of Model Y, 65K is testing the limit , people have that much money ! I understand for low volume car makers it’s possible, If Tesla stay on 50% growth strategies, is it possible Tesla could sell over 1.5 millions Model Y next year with price tag of 65K ?, I think not. However Tesla act fast and adapt to market conditions pretty quickly.

 

[Thekiwi]

What are the upcoming news dates for Tesla?

early July? - Q2 Produced/Delivered report?
7/20/22 - Q2 Earnings Announcement
8/4/2022 - Annual Shareholder Meeting
9/30/2022 - Tesla AI Day 2

Anything else of significance?

You left out Oct 1st or 2nd - a day or two after AI Day Tesla will report P&D for Q3, which if everything goes according to plan will be a new record by a wide margin

 

[bkp_duke]

By "hacked" do you mean "installed an x86 emulator"?

Because AFAIK it's not possible to run Win95 natively on a 94-95 era PPC CPU that the macs had (let alone the 68k ones common before that).

Are you sure you aren't misremembering seeing/running an early version of Windows NT 4.0 on a PPC Mac? Because there was a PPC native version of that direct from Microsoft.



Again to my knowledge the only way this ever happened was just running an emulator. Of which there were any number of commercial ones (but were godawful painfully bad/slow on the PPC processors of the time). Nothing was ever commercially offered to run WIn95 natively on those macs because AFAIK that's flat out not possible.


Again I wonder if you aren't confusing 95 with NT4, they did look similar but were quite different under the hood.

LoL - no, I'm not mis-remembering.

Apple had built an x86 emulator that worked with Windows 3.11 on PPC CPUs. It was pretty crude, but they could get it to run most x86 16 and 32-bit apps at the time (slowly).

Apple was having significant problems getting their PPC x86 emulator to run Windows 95 beta, and being a MS beta tester I had a good understanding of the underlying config changes to DOS and Win95 vs. Win3.11. After about 7-8h of tinkering on a slow weekend shift, I got Win95 beta to boot in the PPC emulator. I even stuck a small cookie in the config files to "tag" my work.

Needless to say when I saw Apple release their Win95 compatibility for their emulator (complete with my tag in it), I was not happy. But I was a college student, and had done it on a demo (i.e. Apple-owned) computer. Not much recourse I had, except to hate them for life.

EDIT - it was also pretty obvious when I came to work the following week, and the store manager found me and was like "dude, the store owner told Apple what you did, and they came and boxed up the machine".

 

[AudubonB]

Take your Apple stories elsewhere.