Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

Another unpopular opinion coming in....

I really respect what Tesla is doing with AI and FSD. But I tend to think that Optimus is several years away. I just don't think that Tesla will have gotten that far ahead of the likes of Boston Dynamics and others on the physical bot front. I think that Tesla is using the bot program to entice high (very high) quality talent to come into Tesla to help finish FSD.

That's not a bad thing, but I'll be happy at AI day 2 to hear that FSD is done (or other very significant milestones). Anything interesting on the bot front will be gravy on the fries.

I think your opinion is very popular in the wide world, including among robot experts outside Tesla, who sniff at the Optimus plan the way rocket experts sniffed at the plan for reusable Falcon 9s.

So imagine the shock and awe on Wall St if it turns out that Elon is not talking BS. We'll see in three months.

Note that he also said AI Day 2 will have surprises besides the Bot prototype. My opinion is: buckle up.

 

[aswami]

Something I haven't seen discussed in terms of Tesla insurance are customer acquisition costs. These vary from $500 per customer to $1k per customer (direct insurance vs agents). This represents up to 8% of net profits.

Anyone want to take a guess at Tesla's cost to acquire new customers? I'd think it's well under $100, probably under $50.

It may actually be zero. They are not even bothering to email Tesla owners when insurance becomes available in their states. I knew and signed up for it only because of the forums. Even the news doesn't adequately cover it.

 

[StealthP3D]

The big question mark in my head is if/ when oil prices come down what happens to consumer's willingness to pay up for a Tesla?

Might see a bit of softening demand if gas prices drop too much.

The ICE vehicle market is mature. Manufacturers are constantly adjusting production to meet demand and they adjust their prices/offer incentives to sell all the cars eventually. sometimes they sell the leftovers at a loss. High volume models have relatively slim margins to take as much market share from competitor as possible (or prevent it from being taken).

In a future period of cheap oil, Tesla will still be able to compete favorably on price - it will just require them to lower their sky-high margins. Tesla margins will still be higher than traditional ICE margins. In North America, gas and diesel pickups and large SUV's will still sell, albeit in reduced volumes and primarily to luxury buyers with money to burn. Only strict regulation or high "guzzler" taxes will keep their sale to an insignificant number. That last 10% of ICE sales might hang on for longer than the superior economics and convenience of EV's would dictate.

In the end, EV's will continue to gut ICE sales, even with gas at $2/gallon. ICE cars are not getting any cheaper to make.

 

[CorneliusXX]

US EV tax credit renewal still in play, but the added union bonus credit is out.

Manchin says EV Tax Credit Bonus Is Gone From Spending Bill

Senate Democrats have scrapped a $4,500 bonus tax credit for electric vehicles made with domestic union labor that was opposed by Senator Joe Manchin as they seek to wrap up negotiations on a spending deal.

www.bloomberg.com

When we're supply constrained all this tax credit will do is force tesla to push up prices again to control wait times. Nice to get pure margin growth but it seems pretty wasteful for the taxpayer.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

US EV tax credit renewal still in play, but the added union bonus credit is out.

Manchin says EV Tax Credit Bonus Is Gone From Spending Bill

Senate Democrats have scrapped a $4,500 bonus tax credit for electric vehicles made with domestic union labor that was opposed by Senator Joe Manchin as they seek to wrap up negotiations on a spending deal.

www.bloomberg.com

This seems quite ridiculous now when the economy is so overheated that the Fed will do almost anything to try and stop runaway inflation.

 

[EVMeister]

Pre-market is looking a bit dicey.

 

[cliff harris]

Price increased is getting crazy but I think current price of Model Y, 65K is testing the limit , people have that much money ! I understand for low volume car makers it’s possible, If Tesla stay on 50% growth strategies, is it possible Tesla could sell over 1.5 millions Model Y next year with price tag of 65K ?, I think not. However Tesla act fast and adapt to market conditions pretty quickly.

I agree. I get the impression that Tesla are very disappointed with how many price rises they have had to do with the model Y, and would love to see demand at the point where they can roll back some of those 'demand-management' raises. I'm not struggling for cash, but even I feel like Tesla are kinda gouging me a bit for a performance Y with FSD. I would not be at all surprised to see the price drop during 2023, once there is actual proper output from Texas and Germany.

 

[MartinAustin]

I agree. I get the impression that Tesla are very disappointed with how many price rises they have had to do with the model Y, and would love to see demand at the point where they can roll back some of those 'demand-management' raises. I'm not struggling for cash, but even I feel like Tesla are kinda gouging me a bit for a performance Y with FSD. I would not be at all surprised to see the price drop during 2023, once there is actual proper output from Texas and Germany.

Yeah, but if the "new orders per week" simply does not slow down, what're ya gonna do? Tesla have the most detailed data on orders, far more detail than we do. As soon as new orders slow down, they can think about bringing down the prices.

Gasoline at $7.11 isn't helping either.

Remember also these new high prices only apply to new orders, the oldest unfulfilled orders are still delivered at where the prices were at 11 months sgo or whatever. And... as soon as they reduce the prices, they're lowering all prices for orders over that price.

 

[cliff harris]

Indeed, but with any luck, dry electrode batteries and front/rear casting makes me think that the ability for the 2 new factories to bang out model Ys may surprise many once they hit their stride. Its not like elon to think small .

On an unrelated note, although I understand how simplicity is beneficial in mass production, I do think there is scope for a 'higher end' trim for the 3 and the Y. I'm mostly swapping a model S for a Y for size reasons (S is too big for me). Give me a dual-screen option for the Y for an extra $5k and I'm totally going to go for it. Tesla really do leave a lot of money on the table regarding optional extras. Maybe in a few years time?

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Tesla is light years ahead of Boston Dynamics where it counts: in AI vision based recognition - the hardware is the easy part, the brain is the hard part. FSD & OPTIMUS is using the same AI vision technology - so new AI recruits will essentially be working on both.

Hardware is NOT that easy. But Tesla has the FSD HW3 (or maybe even HW4 at this point) compute hardware that is small and power saving so that you do not need a humanoid with a humungous backpack.

 

[fiveten]

Yeah, but if the "new orders per week" simply does not slow down, what're ya gonna do? Tesla have the most detailed data on orders, far more detail than we do. As soon as new orders slow down, they can think about bringing down the prices.

Gasoline at $7.11 isn't helping either.

Remember also these new high prices only apply to new orders, the oldest unfulfilled orders are still delivered at where the prices were at 11 months sgo or whatever. And... as soon as they reduce the prices, they're lowering all prices for orders over that price.

I would think if the price lowers Tesla will swoons start to tell you to just cancel you order and re order (and move to the back of the line). The lower price would only apply to orders made after the price got lowere. I think that’s why the changed their policy and now allow you to modify your car and get the pricing for the changed options that existed at the time you ordered.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Indeed, but with any luck, dry electrode batteries and front/rear casting makes me think that the ability for the 2 new factories to bang out model Ys may surprise many once they hit their stride. Its not like elon to think small .

On an unrelated note, although I understand how simplicity is beneficial in mass production, I do think there is scope for a 'higher end' trim for the 3 and the Y. I'm mostly swapping a model S for a Y for size reasons (S is too big for me). Give me a dual-screen option for the Y for an extra $5k and I'm totally going to go for it. Tesla really do leave a lot of money on the table regarding optional extras. Maybe in a few years time?

4680 M3Plaid convertible with adaptive gas shocks for me.

 

[lascavarian]

Weird number of puts showing up at 820 in max pain. Are these old puts now coming up to expire this week? Seems odd.

 

[traxila]

Crude oil down to 104 this morning. Doesn’t have to crash for the oil bogeyman to go away just settle in at around 90 to 100. So many other indicators of falling prices in combination will make this inflation moderate much faster than anyone is predicting (how predictable….). Wild card is labor market now. It does need to get hurt a bit for inflation to really retrench.

BTW, if traffic is any indicator I am going to perish in a permanent traffic jam on local streets while inflation ravages the lands like western wildfires. Of course, COVID may have something to do with that….

 

[GOVA]

Price increased is getting crazy but I think current price of Model Y, 65K is testing the limit , people have that much money ! I understand for low volume car makers it’s possible, If Tesla stay on 50% growth strategies, is it possible Tesla could sell over 1.5 millions Model Y next year with price tag of 65K ?, I think not. However Tesla act fast and adapt to market conditions pretty quickly.

65K is a number. That's all. 24 months ago, this number would have meant a lot more to Tesla as other prices were what theose were back then. Now, this number in relation to other prices/numbers still needs to keep its proper ratio for Tesla to make a profit.

This is simple but very many people don't get it at all. Not only that, but other car companies don't seem to get it either so they make negative profits which should not be named that way. They make cars at loss.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Crude oil down to 104 this morning. Doesn’t have to crash for the oil bogeyman to go away just settle in at around 90 to 100. So many other indicators of falling prices in combination will make this inflation moderate much faster than anyone is predicting (how predictable….). Wild card is labor market now. It does need to get hurt a bit for inflation to really retrench.

BTW, if traffic is any indicator I am going to perish in a permanent traffic jam on local streets while inflation ravages the lands like western wildfires. Of course, COVID may have something to do with that….

CPI should be considered a lagging indicator.
Crude oil price is the real time indicator the market should follow.

I hope the oil price goes down so ICE drivers start to have some extra money to put a down payment on a Tesla and able to make the payments if they finance it

 

[The Accountant]

A short 4 day shutdown in Q3 is good news. I had heard estimates that the shutdown could take up to 2 weeks.
OP states Model Y daily capacity would then reach about 2k after this upgrade.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539584819365294080

 

[Singuy]

Crude oil down to 104 this morning. Doesn’t have to crash for the oil bogeyman to go away just settle in at around 90 to 100. So many other indicators of falling prices in combination will make this inflation moderate much faster than anyone is predicting (how predictable….). Wild card is labor market now. It does need to get hurt a bit for inflation to really retrench.

BTW, if traffic is any indicator I am going to perish in a permanent traffic jam on local streets while inflation ravages the lands like western wildfires. Of course, COVID may have something to do with that….

TA on oil? Sure because it seems that TA is predicting everything these days.

I said it had a double top at 120 and now we are looking for it to break down the neckline of 90 dollars.

Head and shoulder pattern has a 80%+ predictability rating.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

A short 4 day shutdown in Q3 is good news. I had heard estimates that the shutdown could take up to 2 weeks.
OP states Model Y daily capacity would then reach about 2k after this upgrade.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539584819365294080

Troys wrong again . He’s been saying Shanghai would shut down for 2 weeks from last week of July through end of first week of Aug

 

[Stretch2727]

Management of GM continues to amaze me. They built 99 through the first quarter and lets guess 150 this quarter so maybe a total of 250 and now they are shutting down 4 weeks for capacity expansion? So much for legacy high volume experience.

GM Idling Hummer EV Plant To Prepare For Production Expansion

GM says it scheduled downtime from June 27 through July 22 to add production capacity sooner than planned; tooling, machinery and equipment will be installed.

insideevs.com

Also, laying off all the production workers is mainly due to the union as they can only do "production" jobs. Really old school management style.
More progressive organizations will encourage some vacations but keep a good portion of the production team on board to help out during a capacity expansion. Especially for the equipment trials. This way when they restart production most of the production people are fully aware of the new set up and trained on any new type of equipment that was added.