As the Wise Man said: prototypes are easy, volume production is hard!
So Ford does what is easy and brag about it, rather then doing what is hard.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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So Ford does what is easy and brag about it, rather then doing what is hard.
If any EV makers can pull it out of difficult time it’s Tesla, having said this Model Y starting price of 65 K is probably testing the upper limit consumer can afford, it’s different if Tesla wants to sell half a million unit but with Berlin and Austin capacity coming they need to move 2 millions unit, I think price need to move lower hopefully without hurting profitability.
I think most of the investing community is pretty well inoculated against the torrent of negative headlines targeting Tesla these days. In the same three week old interview, Elon discusses the impact of not spreading advertising dollars around on the media/press. The multitude of clickbait headlines don't seem to be having an impact pre-market.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
If gas prices stay where they are you are saving about $30K in fuel costs over a 15 year life of a vehicle assuming 200K miles. On top of this you have the better resale value of the EV and likely lower service costs.
Used Car Prices Are Dropping, But Not For Electric Cars
The auto market has been ridiculous now for some time now. A lack of cars and rising prices are still a reality. As trends shift, used EVs are getting pricier.
insideevs.com
People are already doing the math and figuring out the value an EV brings.
AimStellar
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ZachF
Active Member
If gas prices stay where they are you are saving about $30K in fuel costs over a 15 year life of a vehicle assuming 200K miles. On top of this you have the better resale value of the EV and likely lower service costs.
Used Car Prices Are Dropping, But Not For Electric Cars
The auto market has been ridiculous now for some time now. A lack of cars and rising prices are still a reality. As trends shift, used EVs are getting pricier.
People are already doing the math and figuring out the value an EV brings.
Model 3 will cost you about $35-40 per month to “fill up”, vs ~$180 per month if you drive a comparable 28mpg car for the average driver’s 1000 miles per month. That’s equal to about $9,000 in MSRP advantage on a monthly costs basis.
Dear God, that is tragic... like watching a dying animal flop around before its last breath.
The CEO of Ford Pro claims his product "is here and it's electric!" but the accompanying video is clearly a computer generated animation with the sound effect of a turbine, not an electric motor. Dim disclaimer text says "not available for sale" and "performance stats shown for illustrative purposes only." So the product is not really here, is it, sir.
And what is Ford Pro? Its Twitter bio says:
Ford Pro™ is a productivity accelerator designed to drive business forward, delivering solutions to commercial customers of all sizes.
I see. Well, driving forward is probably better than backward. Maybe they should try actually delivering something to a large customer known as Ford.
It seems every time Elon tells how bad things are, it’s a free shot to sell all day long.
It’s either how bad the economy is, or why it’s necessary to fire salaried workers, or
the billions lost in Berlin and Austin, and now admitting the 4680 is not
yet ready.
Then it takes great positives to negate these issues.
It’s either how bad the economy is, or why it’s necessary to fire salaried workers, or
the billions lost in Berlin and Austin, and now admitting the 4680 is not
yet ready.
Then it takes great positives to negate these issues.
The funny thing about TA is you can see what you want and find a way to justify it (I do this myself!
)Everything hitting resistance yesterday points more to just re-testing the lows of the 16th than capitulation.
That follow-up is a CEO trying to allay fears after dropping a huge bomb, it doesn't negate the reality of everything he said before that. How much confidence you have in their ability to fix it real fast, obviously people here have huge confidence in that.
None of this strikes me as "normal" if you actually watch the interview. Elon says the factories are losing an insane amount of money, he doesn't say they're losing a typical amount of money for new factories, and that suggests it's abnormal and not normal factory ramp up as some here are claiming.
He straight up says "We should be outputting (I think that's the word he used) a lot of cars from this factory versus a very puny amount of cars"
He says they had challenges with the 4680 ramp and structural pack ramp. They tried to ship 2170 tooling from the Shanghai factory to Austin, and it was stuck in port, which affected the production ramp there and caused it to be "very tiny".
The one guy called it a dumpster fire and Elon said that's too small.
He says Berlin and Austin are losing billions of dollars right now because there's a ton of expense and very little output, opening factories into the current environment is clearly not ideal and something Elon is very concerned about. People can have faith that it'll get sorted out and that things will be fine, but trying to spin this like it's media spewing FUD and blatantly disregarding the challenges is just silly.
Elon is the FUD factory here, these are his words right out of the interview and he says them with an overwhelming sense of consternation while gazing out at the production floor trying to mentally will more vehicles out of it.
Elon saying production is hard. News at 9.
All ramps are slow. We've seen it for M3, MX etc etc. Elon has used colorful language in the past .. almost bankrupt etc etc to stress how hard things were ...
that said interview was 3 weeks old ..
since then GF Shanghai has fully opened
GF Berlin did 1K MY/week
GF Fremont did highest units ever
GF Austin shows carrier movements
The hockey stick, S-curve for production will once again come into play .... cheers!!
We are almost at July4th weekend where bear raids have occurred in the past. This time though numbers will likely come out on weekend. MM/Hedgies should be treading carefully here ... super low expectations that can be easily beat.
+EOQ, Tesla Actions usually will be louder(& have bigger impact) than Elon's word
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FIFY.
Technically, "the moment" could mean you need 12 mo liquidity (according to risk tolerance) that last without having to sell shares at some crazy low price out of desperation.
My read on Elon is that he is clearly frustrated at the 4680 and structural ramp, from an engineering perspective. And clearly frustrated at the pandemic Shanghai shutdown as it pertains to supply chain, logistics, ramp of expansion and overall throughput.
One of my worst meetings with him was after the June 28th 2015 rocket failed and he was extra critical of my team and less able to focus on first principles. He is human and I don't fault him for that. Subsequent meetings went very well after that however, he recovered quickly (going through the grief cycle is normal and SpaceX has become the leader in space).
I'm confident that, no matter what happens, the engineers are moving as fast as they can with Elon at the helm. I can't say that for any other company I've worked for.
One of my worst meetings with him was after the June 28th 2015 rocket failed and he was extra critical of my team and less able to focus on first principles. He is human and I don't fault him for that. Subsequent meetings went very well after that however, he recovered quickly (going through the grief cycle is normal and SpaceX has become the leader in space).
I'm confident that, no matter what happens, the engineers are moving as fast as they can with Elon at the helm. I can't say that for any other company I've worked for.
When I get obsess and worried about rising cost of EV(Tesla Model Y, 65K) my faith in EV sector, especially Tesla get shaken a little, so here is little price research on ICE competiton pricing,
2022 Honda Passport $38-46 K
2022 Acura MDX 48-72 K
2022 Toyota Highlander 35-48 K( include some Hybrid MPG 36). This is probably not Apple to Apple comparison but when people need vehicle they need to buy something.
My conclusion, over long run EV has to be competitive with ICE regardless of Gas price, sweet spot for Tesla Model Y pricing should be around 50K, due to high demand Tesla basically has no variation version of Model Y at the moment, Tesla could create various model starting at 50K while maintaining decent margin.
2022 Honda Passport $38-46 K
2022 Acura MDX 48-72 K
2022 Toyota Highlander 35-48 K( include some Hybrid MPG 36). This is probably not Apple to Apple comparison but when people need vehicle they need to buy something.
My conclusion, over long run EV has to be competitive with ICE regardless of Gas price, sweet spot for Tesla Model Y pricing should be around 50K, due to high demand Tesla basically has no variation version of Model Y at the moment, Tesla could create various model starting at 50K while maintaining decent margin.
As an investor, I love this kind of language. Very easy for me to understand. Intuitive. Informative. Clear. Evocative.
As a large organization, it is very difficult for Tesla to communicate clearly throughout the ranks. The external communication needs to match the internal communication, because everyone in the company is watching the external communication. That's also why the e-mail leaks don't matter.
As a large organization, it is very difficult for Tesla to communicate clearly throughout the ranks. The external communication needs to match the internal communication, because everyone in the company is watching the external communication. That's also why the e-mail leaks don't matter.
All ramps are slow and production is hard at the best of times, Elon has been through this and it's not news to him. What is clearly news is the degree to which these challenges have been exacerbated by everything happening right now.
I bet that if you prodded Elon a bit more, he'd even more pointedly say that opening factories and ramping up production in the current environment of supply chain issues, port delays, rampant inflation, and everything else going on, is just adding another layer of difficulty and challenge to overcome. And that completely makes sense. It doesn't mean they won't conquer the challenges, but it makes sense that it's more challenging right now.
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