Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BornToFly]

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Does this mean they will be buying a lot of TSLA shares tomorrow?

 

[damonbrodie]

My read on Elon is that he is clearly frustrated at the 4680 and structural ramp, from an engineering perspective. And clearly frustrated at the pandemic Shanghai shutdown as it pertains to supply chain, logistics, ramp of expansion and overall throughput.

One of my worst meetings with him was after the June 28th 2015 rocket failed and he was extra critical of my team and less able to focus on first principles. He is human and I don't fault him for that. Subsequent meetings went very well after that however, he recovered quickly (going through the grief cycle is normal and SpaceX has become the leader in space).

I'm confident that, no matter what happens, the engineers are moving as fast as they can with Elon at the helm. I can't say that for any other company I've worked for.

I hope they clarify the 4680 situation at either the Shareholders meeting or at the next Quarterly earnings call. I don't understand why they built a 4680 line in Austin if they hasn't sorted out the manufacturing scaling issues at Kato Road.

Instead it makes more sense to me to start with 2170s (edit: in Austin) and then once Kato Road gets the 4680 to where it needs to be - then bring it to Austin and Berlin, etc.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Does this mean they will be buying a lot of TSLA shares tomorrow?

They probably did already this morning after the dip

 

[henchman24]

My read on Elon is that he is clearly frustrated at the 4680 and structural ramp, from an engineering perspective. And clearly frustrated at the pandemic Shanghai shutdown as it pertains to supply chain, logistics, ramp of expansion and overall throughput.

One of my worst meetings with him was after the June 28th 2015 rocket failed and he was extra critical of my team and less able to focus on first principles. He is human and I don't fault him for that. Subsequent meetings went very well after that however, he recovered quickly (going through the grief cycle is normal and SpaceX has become the leader in space).

I'm confident that, no matter what happens, the engineers are moving as fast as they can with Elon at the helm. I can't say that for any other company I've worked for.

I think the 4680 ramp is the worst part. They went all in on it for Austin at the start and are having to pivot adding extra cost and complexity to the factory that'll likely be all thrown away in 4-5 years. I admit, I have worries about the 4680 ramp hurting the next 12-18 months... it'll get figured out though even if they have to pivot from some things.

 

[henchman24]

I hope they clarify the 4680 situation at either the Shareholders meeting or at the next Quarterly earnings call. I don't understand why they built a 4680 line in Austin if they hasn't sorted out the manufacturing scaling issues at Kato Road.

Instead it makes more sense to me to start with 2170s (edit: in Austin) and then once Kato Road gets the 4680 to where it needs to be - then bring it to Austin and Berlin, etc.

They made a bet they'd have the issues solved prior to ramp to lower costs and complexity at Austin. They apparently just lost that bet.

 

[dgodfrey]

On the gigantic piles of burning cash comment from Elon:

It's weird that this is news. It's obvious that a giga factory is billions of dollars to build. If said factory is outputting a trivial number of vehicles (Like Austin is, and Berlin is to a lesser extent) then you will end up with a pretty awful looking balance in your bank account.

The negative press will eat this up, but of course there really isn't any news here. - its obvious.

The interesting part is Elon basically said the same thing to Lucid and Rivian - scale fast or go bankrupt - and those companies have no existing business to keep them afloat. Press and the market basically ignores it.

Elon says it about factories #3 and #4 where he does factories #1 and #2 to sustain the business, but I'm willing to bet that the market will be punishing TSLA today for it.

There's also the aspect that Musk has always pushed the envelope universally. Gambling with the ramping of factories is not surprising. And if you look at it through the lens that average success requires average risk, it's not just unexpected but mandatory that the crisis as he sees it requires execution on a razors edge until mission complete.
All that to support a theory that existing performance is what determines future CapEx. When Tesla was confident that the record breaking demand for the Model 3 was legit, it warranted Shanghai. As that growth in demand that would justify maximum production of 2 factories was inarguable in spite of what GoJo claimed, the FCF could support 2 more factories simultaneously without the raping from Wall Street and by association, their credit rating cronies. As the maximum production of 4 factories shows full non-relenting market absorption, the result can only mean one thing.
4 MORE FACTORIES SIMULTANEOUSLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION.
I suspect 2 of those locations have already been determined.

 

[Cobbler]

Can't resist
But this is epic:

 

[Words of HABIT]

View attachment 819966

Toyota recalls EV fleet as challenge to Tesla dominance suffers setback

World’s largest carmaker recalls 2,700 battery SUVs with safety issue less than two months after launch

www.ft.com

And to think Toyota's "Challenge to Tesla's dominance" has resulted in 2,700 EVs sold to date as of June 2022. And to think Toyota had a partnership with Tesla ten years ago back in 2012 for the Toyota Rav4 with a Tesla electric powertrain. There is no reason why Toyota Tesla [edit--ggr] could not be pumping out millions of EVs in 2022 if they had simply stayed the course with Tesla. Shame.

Tesla Motors and Toyota Motor Corporation Formalize Agreement to Develop Electric Version of RAV4

Palo Alto, California, U.S.A., and Tokyo, Japan — TESLA MOTORS, INC. (Tesla) and TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION (TMC) today announced that the two companies have signed an agreement to initiate the development of an electric version of the RAV4 as announced ...

media.toyota.ca

 

[The Accountant]

Instead it makes more sense to me to start with 2170s (edit: in Austin)

Elon stated that the 2170 equipment bound for Austin was stuck at port in China. This interview was on May 30. It's possible that the equipment is already at Austin and Tesla is moving to Plan B. If so, this would bode well for Q3 ramp.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Can't resist
But this is epic:

View attachment 819988

Wow, funny stuff, but I can also see the "need" at times. Not sure is spaceX is ready for combat. Food maybe, but artillery? That puts SpaceX vehicles squarely on enemy radar. I prefer the Intergalactic rules from Star Trek, or "We cum in peas" approach.

 

[Max Plaid]

"The day everyone is waiting for".... To buy more shares below 600? Or the start of the Bull run back to ATH? Which Day are we talking about?

Yes!

 

[GOVA]

I hope they clarify the 4680 situation at either the Shareholders meeting or at the next Quarterly earnings call. I don't understand why they built a 4680 line in Austin if they hasn't sorted out the manufacturing scaling issues at Kato Road.

Instead it makes more sense to me to start with 2170s (edit: in Austin) and then once Kato Road gets the 4680 to where it needs to be - then bring it to Austin and Berlin, etc.

Too simplistic or too inacurate of a view to assess the situation. They are not 2 year olds trying to squeeze a cube through a round opening.

I am sure there is much more to it to be able to determine what is really going on.

 

[EVDRVN]

And to think Toyota's "Challenge to Tesla's dominance" has resulted in 2,700 EVs sold to date as of June 2022. And to think Toyota had a partnership with Tesla ten years ago back in 2012 for the Toyota Rav4 with a Tesla electric powertrain. There is no reason why Toyota Tesla [edit--ggr] could not be pumping out millions of EVs in 2022 if they had simply stayed the course with Tesla. Shame.

Tesla Motors and Toyota Motor Corporation Formalize Agreement to Develop Electric Version of RAV4

Palo Alto, California, U.S.A., and Tokyo, Japan — TESLA MOTORS, INC. (Tesla) and TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION (TMC) today announced that the two companies have signed an agreement to initiate the development of an electric version of the RAV4 as announced ...

media.toyota.ca

People think Toyota is stupid however they developed the Prius in secrecy and dominated the hybrid market. The Tesla partnership was a mutual back scratching exercise and has nothing to do with their ability to advance EVs. Toyota has been in advanced EV development a long time they just don't let the public know how much and they are great at disinformation and it works. They may suffer a bad fate long term but if anyone thinks they don't have a strategy they are mistaken. Do not forget that many years before the Toyota/Tesla RAV Toyota had their own RAV4 and the later Tesla partnership had nothing to do with what was stated on the press release, that Toyota was going to benefit with Tesla's tech sharing. That was a joke and people ate it up and still do. The NUMI deal was great for them and so was compliance car number two. Toyota may make the wrong decision but they are not blind they just have a different strategy and it may fail them but they were never in the dark about EVs or "anti EV". Toyota made a business choice and I would not be shocked if they drop a bombshell product on the market but I would also not be surprised if it were too late. Don't be fooled by Toyota's PR, again.

 

[nativewolf]

And to think Toyota's "Challenge to Tesla's dominance" has resulted in 2,700 EVs sold to date as of June 2022. And to think Toyota had a partnership with Tesla ten years ago back in 2012 for the Toyota Rav4 with a Tesla electric powertrain. There is no reason why Toyota Tesla [edit--ggr] could not be pumping out millions of EVs in 2022 if they had simply stayed the course with Tesla. Shame.

Tesla Motors and Toyota Motor Corporation Formalize Agreement to Develop Electric Version of RAV4

Palo Alto, California, U.S.A., and Tokyo, Japan — TESLA MOTORS, INC. (Tesla) and TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION (TMC) today announced that the two companies have signed an agreement to initiate the development of an electric version of the RAV4 as announced ...

media.toyota.ca

They didn't need to "stay the course" with tesla. Yhey had to do was pivot from the ridiculous Hydrogen dream. The "partnership" was an intelligence gathering exercise. They wanted to find a way to keep the engine know how and investment, they made a terrible terrible choice and that has likely sunk Japan Inc as an automotive force. If Toyota had actually pivoted to EVs than Tesla might have been adversely impacted.

 

[Skryll]

Can't resist
But this is epic:

View attachment 819988

Firmly placing Tesla / SpaceX and Elon Musk into enemy crosshairs. I am sure fossil strategists would love that.

 

[Gigapress]

People think Toyota is stupid however they developed the Prius in secrecy and dominated the hybrid market. The Tesla partnership was a mutual back scratching exercise and has nothing to do with their ability to advance EVs. Toyota has been in advanced EV development a long time they just don't let the public know how much and they are great at disinformation and it works. They may suffer a bad fate long term but if anyone thinks they don't have a strategy they are mistaken. Do not forget that many years before the Toyota/Tesla RAV Toyota had their own RAV4 and the later Tesla partnership had nothing to do with what was stated on the press release, that Toyota was going to benefit with Tesla's tech sharing. That was a joke and people ate it up and still do. The NUMI deal was great for them and so was compliance car number two. Toyota may make the wrong decision but they are not blind they just have a different strategy and it may fail them but they were never in the dark about EVs or "anti EV". Toyota made a business choice and I would not be shocked if they drop a bombshell product on the market but I would also not be surprised if it were too late. Don't be fooled by Toyota's PR, again.

Deciding, since that RAV4 compliance car, to put out zero BEVs until 2022 and pushing hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell powertrains was smart?

Developing products secretly for years without putting them out in the real world or working out manufacturing challenges was smart?

The CEO saying in December 2020 that electric vehicles are “overhyped” and “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets” was smart?

Attempting to scale 30 different models simultaneously between now and 2030, spanning four completely different powertrain architectures (battery, ICE hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell) is smart?

Officially targeting 3.5 million annual production of BEVs by 2030 is smart?

Lobbying against increasing emissions standards and EV mandates in all major worldwide car markets was smart and not anti-EV?

How could they even attract and excite engineering talent for BEVs to want to work for them when this is how they talk and spend their money? Let’s not beat around the bush here; the most generous interpretation of all this is that Toyota’s leadership team are incompetent morons and their insistence on slowing down the transition is killing people and risking the future of our planet. Let’s bear in mind that CEO Akio Toyoda is the grandson of the founder of Toyota, Kiichiro Toyoda. What are the odds that this CEO selection was based on Mr. Toyoda being the best person for the job instead of nepotism? By the way, he has a background in law and business administration, not engineering.

Toyota Motor Corp will be bankrupt or bailed out by the Japanese government in the next ten years. Mark my words.

 

[thesmokingman]

Toyota's anti-EV ads aren't just deceptive, they also push science illiteracy

"Self-charging" cars that "never need to charge" are not a thing, Toyota. Stop making people think perpetual motion exists.

electrek.co

Toyota's greenwashing leads to record $180m fine for emissions lies

Toyota will pay a penalty of $180 million for failing to comply with the Clean Air Act’s emissions-reporting requirements from...

electrek.co

 

[StealthP3D]

This is the danger, this is the pitfall, this is the reason traders fail.
When you postpone buying because you expect the price will continue to fall, you are a trader.

Don't look at the price, just buy when you can and only sell when you need cash and only as much as you need at the moment.

For over 20 years, I no longer invest almost all my money in one stock. The specific percentage varies, but it would take a very special situation to get me over 50% Not because I had a bad experience doing that, but because I manage risk differently now that my portfolio is much larger than it once was. Knowing and understanding risk/reward is the most important part of being a successful investor. The size of my largest position is dependent upon my analysis of risk/reward. Only in the most favorable situations will I let one position become well over half of my total. So, as the price drops, I can increase the size of the position in terms of percent of total. As a young man the calculation was somewhat different because I had more risk tolerance due to more available recovery time. Risk is only bad when it doesn't come with a corresponding reward and the measure of both of those things will change depending upon your life phase.

When TSLA dropped under $45 ($225) in 2019, I knew I was going to buy more which is why I started watching the price continuously. The bottom had fallen out, actually it had become a falling knife. I knew I wouldn't hit the exact bottom, but I also knew the pattern was very unambiguous in the short-term (which does happen from time to time). More likely than not, patience would pay off in such a situation. The old saying "don't try to catch a falling knife" really does have validity, if the knife is truly falling. Sure, there was a chance it would cost me some shares, but there was a much greater chance it would reward me with three or six times the number of shares that this strategy might cost me if there was an unexpected reversal. Considering I already had a sizeable position, that was a gamble I wanted to take, and I was well-rewarded by being able to double my position instead of adding considerably fewer shares. Had the price reversed prematurely, I would have immediately made my purchase, although with somewhat fewer shares.

When the price is dropping precipitously as it was in May 2019, patience can be a very good thing. I knew I would be buying shortly, I just didn't know how many I would be buying or how large of a percentage of my total it would be. The more it fell, the more I could buy for two reasons:

1) The relative value would be greater so it could be a larger percent of my total. This is risk management 201. It's also why the share price never enters into my appraisal of the actual value of the company.
2) More shares per dollar invested. This is basic math.

I also disagree with only selling as much as the cash you need at the moment. If you know you will need cash in a year, for a planned house upgrade (or any other large upcoming need for cash), and the stock price is extra strong, and has been for some time, it's wise to take some off the table in advance of your need for cash. This puts you in control of when you sell, and removes some of the volatility risk. I've often said that volatility is not risk for a long-term investor, but that always comes with the qualifier that you will not be required to sell during low points (like right now). Because, if you know you are going to have to sell in a year, you are no longer a long-term investor, at least not with that portion of your portfolio. That is capital that is subject to short-term investing rules. In short-term investing, volatility is risk and it is very real risk.

Discipline while following these principles is what has allowed me to be a very profitable long-term investor with minimal stress and time spent trading or worrying about my positions which frees up time an energy to spend on the more enjoyable and profitable side of investing, learning about new technologies that are becoming ripe for commercialization, familiarizing myself with the companies that may benefit the most and how new developments impact my holdings.

Long-term investing does require a certain amount of discipline to excel, but it doesn't require extreme intelligence or knowledge beyond the application of logical first principles thinking and some common sense. Most people who under-perform are making very basic errors of judgement, whether it be due to letting emotions guide their thinking process, greed or simply illogical thinking. It doesn't need to take a lot of time either, although spending more time being more familiar with the actual subject of your investments can increase returns by increasing your ability to more accurately appraise risk/reward ratio of any given investment. Of course, there comes a point of diminishing returns. For example, even Elon Musk, who is more intimately familiar with Tesla's potential than any of us can hope to become, doesn't know where the share price will be in 10 years (other than it will be a lot higher than it is right now). How much higher depends upon too many unknowns to say with certainty that the 5-10 year returns will be mind-blowing but I have trouble seeing credible scenarios in which at least some of Tesla's initiatives, beyond automaking, don't become insanely profitable.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

All ramps are slow. We've seen it for M3, MX etc etc. Elon has used colorful language in the past .. almost bankrupt etc etc to stress how hard things were ...

that said interview was 3 weeks old ..
since then GF Shanghai has fully opened
GF Berlin did 1K MY/week
GF Fremont did highest units ever
GF Austin shows carrier movements

The hockey stick, S-curve for production will once again come into play .... cheers!!

We are almost at July4th weekend where bear raids have occurred in the past. This time though numbers will likely come out on weekend. MM/Hedgies should be treading carefully here ... super low expectations that can be easily beat.

+EOQ, Tesla Actions usually will be louder(& have bigger impact) than Elon's word

"ramps are slow". Meanwhile GM produced 26 EVs in Q4 of 2021 and <500 in Q1 2022. I don't think Tesla is doing badly in comparison.

 

[ZeApelido]

Rumors that Tesla has already built an impressive robot simulator.

The simulator has gone next level. It gives Tesla superpowers no other company has.

But I am hearing that the Tesla robot has done many billions of things in the simulator it has built. Expected demos? Gets out of a Tesla vehicle. Walks into a Round Table.

Think that isn’t possible? You just aren’t keeping up to date on just how fast AI can learn things. Other demos? Jump rope with kids. Walking up stairs. Throwing footballs after telling Elon “go for a bomb.” How can Tesla build such a thing so quickly?

The simulator has gone next level. It gives Tesla superpowers no other company has. Even the Giant AI company that was invested in by Bill Gates and @khoslaventures which is seen by many as way ahead of Tesla’s humanoid robot.

thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539875793425248257