Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

"Gets out of a Tesla vehicle. Walks into a Round Table."

Had to read this a couple times. I read it the first time and all I could think was "Well that's clumsy AF, who wants a robot that walks into tables?"

Been years since I've been to a Round Table Pizza and just didn't register. Don't even think we have one locally here.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon hasn't tweeted in 48 hours. Hope you people are satisfied that Elon has clearly listened to you all in has gone all corporate on us. What am I gonna do for kicks now?

 

[StealthP3D]

That follow-up is a CEO trying to allay fears after dropping a huge bomb, it doesn't negate the reality of everything he said before that. How much confidence you have in their ability to fix it real fast, obviously people here have huge confidence in that.

None of this strikes me as "normal" if you actually watch the interview. Elon says the factories are losing an insane amount of money, he doesn't say they're losing a typical amount of money for new factories, and that suggests it's abnormal and not normal factory ramp up as some here are claiming.

He straight up says "We should be outputting (I think that's the word he used) a lot of cars from this factory versus a very puny amount of cars"

He says they had challenges with the 4680 ramp and structural pack ramp. They tried to ship 2170 tooling from the Shanghai factory to Austin, and it was stuck in port, which affected the production ramp there and caused it to be "very tiny".

The one guy called it a dumpster fire and Elon said that's too small.

He says Berlin and Austin are losing billions of dollars right now because there's a ton of expense and very little output, opening factories into the current environment is clearly not ideal and something Elon is very concerned about. People can have faith that it'll get sorted out and that things will be fine, but trying to spin this like it's media spewing FUD and blatantly disregarding the challenges is just silly.


Elon is the FUD factory here, these are his words right out of the interview and he says them with an overwhelming sense of consternation while gazing out at the production floor trying to mentally will more vehicles out of it.

I think there is a certain amount of truth to what you say here but it deserves some perspective;

Yes, the ramp is not as fast as Elon would have liked but we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Elon's expectations are always insanely high. Even considering that, it probably makes sense to lower some of the more bullish production/delivery estimates because they were based on typical stunning performance from Tesla. Now it's just barely impressive. It's still a far cry better than any legacy manufacturer could do.

Even a fast, relatively seamless construction and ramp would cost Tesla billions of dollars. Elon is putting it those terms because he knows Tesla employees watch Elon's interviews and they are the only people that can make this happen. Elon knows how to motivate employees to do their best and to work harder. That is one major secret of how Elon creates so much value, by knowing how to motivate employees. This interview, in an empty factory, was designed for employees at a critical point in the ramp phase. The beginning of production hell. Even with the often mentioned "cut and paste" production lines, there are still many loose ends. A pep rally would not be as effective (nor would it be an effective use of company time). A company wide email from Elon would not have been as effective because then it's obvious he is telling them he expects more from them. They can just say, "Screw him, I'm already doing enough, what's he going to do about it?". Watching this video, watching Elon's disappointment and hearing about the billions of dollars going down the drain, makes them want to pull together and make production happen. It's in their best interest. Very smart. But it's what I have come to expect from Elon. He knows how to best make big things happen. This is not my positive spin, it's what's wee are actually observing here.

I wish the CEO's of all my investments were this good! It's how you make big things happen. That said, I do agree the timeline needs to be moved back about 2-3 months. But that doesn't mean the share price isn't still a screaming long-term buy at these levels!

 

[WADan]

My view is that there is a lot of business sense in avoiding the commodity vehicles. Stick with a premium product line and license FSD and Tesla network access to the low margin producers.

Sooner or later EV production will be far less a mystery IMO.

If the goal is to massively scale, then a smaller (and cheaper) EV will be needed. I expect Elon to announce model 2 in Master Plan 3!

 

[Tachyon]

I think there is a certain amount of truth to what you say here but it deserves some perspective;

Yes, the ramp is not as fast as Elon would have liked but we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Elon's expectations are always insanely high. Even considering that, it probably makes sense to lower some of the more bullish production/delivery estimates because they were based on typical stunning performance from Tesla. Now it's just barely impressive. It's still a far cry better than any legacy manufacturer could do.

Even a fast, relatively seamless construction and ramp would cost Tesla billions of dollars. Elon is putting it those terms because he knows Tesla employees watch Elon's interviews and they are the only people that can make this happen. Elon knows how to motivate employees to do their best and to work harder. That is one major secret of how Elon creates so much value, by knowing how to motivate employees. This interview, in an empty factory, was designed for employees at a critical point in the ramp phase. The beginning of production hell. Even with the often mentioned "cut and paste" production lines, there are still many loose ends. A pep rally would not be as effective (nor would it be an effective use of company time). A company wide email from Elon would not have been as effective because then it's obvious he is telling them he expects more from them. They can just say, "Screw him, I'm already doing enough, what's he going to do about it?". Watching this video, watching Elon's disappointment and hearing about the billions of dollars going down the drain, makes them want to pull together and make production happen. It's in their best interest. Very smart. But it's what I have come to expect from Elon. He knows how to best make big things happen. This is not my positive spin, it's what's wee are actually observing here.

I wish the CEO's of all my investments were this good! It's how you make big things happen. That said, I do agree the timeline needs to be moved back about 2-3 months. But that doesn't mean the share price isn't still a screaming long-term buy at these levels!

I didn’t know that the best way to motivate your employees is by way of off-the cuff remarks in an interview. Elon is a great manager , but we have to stop rationalizing every misstep/misspeak. Elon is human and is bound to make mistakes , real and perceived. Let him be him and move on .

 

[Gigapress]

Rumors that Tesla has already built an impressive robot simulator.










thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539875793425248257

If I remember correctly you mentioned a couple months ago that you have a PhD in humanoid robot mechanical engineering.

Do you foresee any significant challenges going from simulation to actual movement?

 

[Drumheller]

Elon hasn't tweeted in 48 hours. Hope you people are satisfied that Elon has clearly listened to you all in has gone all corporate on us. What am I gonna do for kicks now?

I think someone close to Elon keeps an eye on this thread. After the recent posts complaining about Elon using his personal account for everything, it seems like the official Tesla account is seeing an increase in usage.

 

[thesmokingman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539875793425248257

That should be captioned talking to the hand... or talk to the hand or something lol.

 

[damonbrodie]

Rumors that Tesla has already built an impressive robot simulator.










thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539875793425248257

I really really hope it is more impressive than the robot in that clip that does nothing more than wag a finger....

I'm not being sarcastic. Lot's of companies have done impressive robotics - there are some pretty huge shoes to fill in this space. That being said - if they indeed do pull off something world class and truly innovative it will be a great day to be in TSLA.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I really really hope it is more impressive than the robot in that clip that does nothing more than wag a finger....

I'm not being sarcastic. Lot's of companies have done impressive robotics - there are some pretty huge shoes to fill in this space. That being said - if they indeed do pull off something world class and truly innovative it will be a great day to be in TSLA.

The tweet is about how the robot "sees" in neural radiance fields. Googling this it indicates rendering of 3d objects with 2d images.

Focusing on the moving finger is missing the forest and the trees...

 

[Electroman]

I think the 4680 ramp is the worst part. They went all in on it for Austin at the start and are having to pivot adding extra cost and complexity to the factory that'll likely be all thrown away in 4-5 years. I admit, I have worries about the 4680 ramp hurting the next 12-18 months... it'll get figured out though even if they have to pivot from some things.

Agreed. 4680 is the only and the biggest of concerns. Nothing else is a existential threat. They need to achieve volume 4680 production and start realizing the gains. Otherwise we are not seeing CT or Semi.

4680 is the path for Tesla to print money.

 

[Krugerrand]

Rumors that Tesla has already built an impressive robot simulator.










thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539875793425248257

Good thing it’s ‘top secret’.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well I think everyone will know what type of mood I'm in today . All bullish trading is now gone and TSLA looks like it's about to dive hard if the macro's pull back. Looked like TSLA was finally ready to break out of the very long term downtrend (since November), but nope....right back in the downtrend. Pretty much continues the trend of underperformance overall since May 4th with each cluster of outperformance (2-3 days) quickly reversing.

I gotta say.......I'm so happy I sold off a majority of LEAPS, took the gains I had on them and just bought shares (with using a bit of margin to maximize the number of shares I could get without putting myself at any real risk). I have full faith in Tesla as a company, especially Zach and Drew. Simply can't trust Elon to not torpedo the stock at any time. Never seen a CEO kneecap their own stock time after time after time as I've seen in the past 8 months (since November). I'm not harping on Elon, he's his own person. He has a right to act how it wants........But I'm sure as hell not going to do any actions that requires the stock to be at a certain price by a certain time frame anymore.

Side note - I know a few of the guys over on the UI/Entertainment team at Tesla. One got laid off, though it was expected. There was some redundancy on that team. But I have heard for the first time some aggravation with Elon from them. Mainly that they feel they do good work only to have the CEO do something that tanks the stock.

And I can't really disagree with them. I'd feel the same way. Especially for those that started in mid-to late 2020. I think some of us here who were invested 8+ years ago can look at our total gains and be very happy even if though the stock was 1200 just 3-4 months ago. But for some of them, they're looking at RSU's/equity that hasn't really appreciated at all over the past 2 years.

Not that I'm really concerned about employee discontent at the moment. But I do think we're nearing a point where Elon's antics could be reaching a breaking point with employees. That latest interview being a classic example. It was unnecessary to say that, Elon knows the wall st media would run that quote non stop and sure enough, in every news feed, it plastered on the front page.

It's quite funny to listen to them though "Can Elon just shut up for one damn month???"

 

[jerry33]

I didn’t know that the best way to motivate your employees is by way of off-the cuff remarks in an interview. Elon is a great manager , but we have to stop rationalizing every misstep/misspeak. Elon is human and is bound to make mistakes , real and perceived. Let him be him and move on .

I can assure you it's not by a pep talk, team meeting, or town hall. Those disincentivize employees--even the positive ones because employees think they are a waste of time when they could be productive. I've been to way too many of those.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well I think everyone will know what type of mood I'm in today . All bullish trading is now gone and TSLA looks like it's about to dive hard if the macro's pull back. Looked like TSLA was finally ready to break out of the very long term downtrend (since November), but nope....right back in the downtrend. Pretty much continues the trend of underperformance overall since May 4th with each cluster of outperformance (2-3 days) quickly reversing.

I gotta say.......I'm so happy I sold off a majority of LEAPS, took the gains I had on them and just bought shares (with using a bit of margin to maximize the number of shares I could get without putting myself at any real risk). I have full faith in Tesla as a company, especially Zach and Drew. Simply can't trust Elon to not torpedo the stock at any time. Never seen a CEO kneecap their own stock time after time after time as I've seen in the past 8 months (since November). I'm not harping on Elon, he's his own person. He has a right to act how it wants........But I'm sure as hell not going to do any actions that requires the stock to be at a certain price by a certain time frame anymore.

Side note - I know a few of the guys over on the UI/Entertainment team at Tesla. One got laid off, though it was expected. There was some redundancy on that team. But I have heard for the first time some aggravation with Elon from them. Mainly that they feel they do good work only to have the CEO do something that tanks the stock.

And I can't really disagree with them. I'd feel the same way. Especially for those that started in mid-to late 2020. I think some of us here who were invested 8+ years ago can look at our total gains and be very happy even if though the stock was 1200 just 3-4 months ago. But for some of them, they're looking at RSU's/equity that hasn't really appreciated at all over the past 2 years.

Not that I'm really concerned about employee discontent at the moment. But I do think we're nearing a point where Elon's antics could be reaching a breaking point with employees. That latest interview being a classic example. It was unnecessary to say that, Elon knows the wall st media would run that quote non stop and sure enough, in every news feed, it plastered on the front page.

It's quite funny to listen to them though "Can Elon just shut up for one damn month???"

2 days down..28 more to go

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If I remember correctly you mentioned a couple months ago that you have a PhD in humanoid robot mechanical engineering.

Do you foresee any significant challenges going from simulation to actual movement?

No...but he did stay at a holiday inn last night

Had to do it...sorry

 

[StealthP3D]

I didn’t know that the best way to motivate your employees is by way of off-the cuff remarks in an interview. Elon is a great manager , but we have to stop rationalizing every misstep/misspeak. Elon is human and is bound to make mistakes , real and perceived. Let him be him and move on .

Elon makes plenty of mistakes, but they are not necessarily what you think they are. He also motivates employees in many ways that are effective but may not be traditional corporate motivational techniques.

Elon seemed somewhat introspective and listless (for lack of a better word) through most of the third part of that interview. It was only during the portion he was speaking of the expensive factory ramp that he became animated, as if that was his purpose. You have no way of knowing whether those particular comments were off the cuff or not. I know it ticks you off that one man could accomplish so much, and in such a non-traditional manner, but that's not a good reason to pretend like everything he says that causes a temporary downturn in the share price is a misstep or a misspeak. He is always working, always thinking how to further the goals of his companies, and he always has a message to relay when he makes an interview happen. He doesn't schedule an interview because he has nothing better to do and just wants to shoot the breeze in front of a camera he knows will be recording his every word.

Elon is way above caring about the daily share price ups and downs and is focused like a laser on creating long-term value. He knows the daily volatility always irons itself out in the end, he is more focused on future value and accelerating the mission. He knows that a faster ramp is more valuable to the company and the mission than any short-term hit the share price will experience from his comments.

 

[nativewolf]

The tweet is about how the robot "sees" in neural radiance fields. Googling this it indicates rendering of 3d objects with 2d images.

Focusing on the moving finger is missing the forest and the trees...

Actually it’s the wrist but fingers are #2

 

[dm28997]

This is very interesting. If we cut out the drama(MSM) things look OK>

Insight: Biden administration leans on Tesla for guidance in renewable fuel policy reform

U.S. President Joe Biden rarely mentions electric car maker Tesla Inc in public. But privately his administration has leaned on the company to help craft a new policy to allow electric vehicles (EVs) to benefit from the nation's lucrative renewable fuel subsidies, according to emails reviewed by...

www.reuters.com

 

[thesmokingman]

This is very interesting. If we cut out the drama(MSM) things look OK>

Insight: Biden administration leans on Tesla for guidance in renewable fuel policy reform

U.S. President Joe Biden rarely mentions electric car maker Tesla Inc in public. But privately his administration has leaned on the company to help craft a new policy to allow electric vehicles (EVs) to benefit from the nation's lucrative renewable fuel subsidies, according to emails reviewed by...

www.reuters.com

I hope this means that the administration is starting to realize that those legacies they threw in with are clearly clueless.