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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I would say this response is exactly what I'm talking about. That's great about your situation.

That's not the case for many others. Even those that work in tech. Quite a few employees rely on their RSU's as income just as much as their salary. And no, your signing bonus RSU allotment is not just a "bonus". It's a significant amount of your total compensation spread out over 4 years.

Anywyays, I'm just mentioning what I'm hearing from Tesla employees themselves (granted it's mainly from one team that is a pretty small part of Tesla). You can choose to ignore it if you want. But it's never a great thing to have your employees annoyed and some quite pissed off that their CEO continually keeps putting pressure on the stock. 🥴
Without fsd tesla is worth zero, quite a morale booster.
loose lips sink ships.
 
I would say this response is exactly what I'm talking about. That's great about your situation.

That's not the case for many others. Even those that work in tech. Quite a few employees rely on their RSU's as income just as much as their salary. And no, your signing bonus RSU allotment is not just a "bonus". It's a significant amount of your total compensation spread out over 4 years.

Anywyays, I'm just mentioning what I'm hearing from Tesla employees themselves (granted it's mainly from one team that is a pretty small part of Tesla). You can choose to ignore it if you want. But it's never a great thing to have your employees annoyed and some quite pissed off that their CEO continually keeps putting pressure on the stock. 🥴

Every time EM brings the stonks down, retirement plans for TMC members and TSLA employees get thrown out the window ;)
SpaceX/Tesla still the most sought after place to work at ... so voids will get filled rather quickly.

No CEO says cash burn or gives TSLAQ fair warning about Short burn of the century. Tesla is on a trajectory ... just enjoy the ride.
 
Thinking out loud....

Since the Fed and POTUS is so eager to curb inflation, prevent a recession, help out strugling families, etc....why doesn't POTUS go ahead and pass an emergency act/law that pauses all federal/state income tax penalties/late fees?

Oh wait......that would mean loss of a lot of gov't jobs..can't have that now, can we?
 
Yeah, I'll discharge all my PWs anytime they want for that rate.
This is what I've been expecting in terms of using vehicles as grid storage as well. It isn't attractive to wear down your car battery for 10 or 20 cents a kWh, but a buck or so? Yes, please let me plug in my Cybertruck and collect a few hundred bucks a month over summertime.

Maybe seeing these numbers will have Elon reconsidering V2G. They just need to count those cycles towards battery warranty somehow.
 
Well I think everyone will know what type of mood I'm in today ;). All bullish trading is now gone and TSLA looks like it's about to dive hard if the macro's pull back. Looked like TSLA was finally ready to break out of the very long term downtrend (since November), but nope....right back in the downtrend. Pretty much continues the trend of underperformance overall since May 4th with each cluster of outperformance (2-3 days) quickly reversing.

I gotta say.......I'm so happy I sold off a majority of LEAPS, took the gains I had on them and just bought shares (with using a bit of margin to maximize the number of shares I could get without putting myself at any real risk). I have full faith in Tesla as a company, especially Zach and Drew. Simply can't trust Elon to not torpedo the stock at any time. Never seen a CEO kneecap their own stock time after time after time as I've seen in the past 8 months (since November). I'm not harping on Elon, he's his own person. He has a right to act how it wants........But I'm sure as hell not going to do any actions that requires the stock to be at a certain price by a certain time frame anymore.

Side note - I know a few of the guys over on the UI/Entertainment team at Tesla. One got laid off, though it was expected. There was some redundancy on that team. But I have heard for the first time some aggravation with Elon from them. Mainly that they feel they do good work only to have the CEO do something that tanks the stock.

And I can't really disagree with them. I'd feel the same way. Especially for those that started in mid-to late 2020. I think some of us here who were invested 8+ years ago can look at our total gains and be very happy even if though the stock was 1200 just 3-4 months ago. But for some of them, they're looking at RSU's/equity that hasn't really appreciated at all over the past 2 years.

Not that I'm really concerned about employee discontent at the moment. But I do think we're nearing a point where Elon's antics could be reaching a breaking point with employees. That latest interview being a classic example. It was unnecessary to say that, Elon knows the wall st media would run that quote non stop and sure enough, in every news feed, it plastered on the front page.

It's quite funny to listen to them though "Can Elon just shut up for one damn month???" 😅
Gee, one could say it almost seems like Elon just gave an engraved invitation to short even further—right before it may once again prove to be a widow’s trade.

And, huh, whaddya know we’re even in the second half of the year by one measure: We’re past the Summer solstice. Doesn’t TSLA typically do better in the second half of the year in comparison to the first?
 
To be fair, most Autosteer on City Streets driving is happening at lower speeds and especially the more complicated challenging maneuvers. Autopilot and highway speeds are a different story, but that's generally travelling in a straight line or gentle curves with lane changes and not crazy stuff like pulling off unprotected left turns through traffic flow.

The lack of public safety implications should really allow some big latitude though in the development
One of my brother's friends was paralyzed from the neck down in a bike versus car incident with a car moving at 15 MPH. My wife got a fractured wrist in a similar incident. Cars are "Safe" at lower speeds so long as you are inside one. For the rest of the world, they are quite dangerous and sometimes deadly.
 
Maybe the king of bad out-of-context quotes right here.
Elon is insanely bad at valuing Tesla, even had a back and forth with James on twitter. Besides his "stock price is too high comment", he feels like Tesla's market cap is overly inflated if they can't meet his expectations(smashed like a souffle with a sledgehammer comment). When the stock was headed to 1200, he was dumb founded as to why and thought the Hertz thing shouldn't be material(which it shouldn't be). Deep down Elon actually compares his company to other automakers and he thinks it's marketcap is propped up by FSD/Robotix/AI etc and just never looked into how bad other company's operating margins are or his own forward PE.
 
Quick data point.

I'm currently at Tesla Bellevue waiting on a tire fix.

This place is buzzing and folks are hustling.

End of quarter push.
My Model X Long Range ordered Jan 2021 had an estimated delivery Dec ‘22-Mar ‘23. But all of a sudden I got a VIN assigned and delivery window Jun 23 - Jun 30. Definitely end of quarter push.

Unfortunately I won’t be able to take delivery on such short notice. I suggested to Tesla they re-assign my VIN to someone who can take delivery before the end of the quarter.
 
Agreed. 4680 is the only and the biggest of concerns. Nothing else is a existential threat. They need to achieve volume 4680 production and start realizing the gains. Otherwise we are not seeing CT or Semi.

4680 is the path for Tesla to print money.
Existential is still a bit extreme. If 4680s take more time to scale it will have a significant impact on growth but the underlying company is still a money printer. Tesla is buying all the reasonably priced 3rd party cells it can in addition to the 4680 ramp
 
There certainly could be significant challenges in getting a demo up an running if the prototype still isn't ready and they are only relying on simulations right now, but long term Tesla is at a severe advantage to others.

This Facebook AI research note talks about some of the issues I thought of, and some solutions.




There are going to be discrepancies between the simulator and actual robot initially, whether its incorrectly modeled lag between body parts, or more latency in signals being transmitted or actuators moving. There is also incorrect modeling of the physics of the environment. [These are all issues I had to deal with in my phd trying to make a humanoid show the same responses as an actual human being to say, jumping and landing].

But Tesla can win becuase they will have actual robots, and lot of them, to deploy, fail, and send back information about what happened.

This closed loop will allow the modeling to iteratively become more accurate to the true mechanical state of Optimus and the environment, making subsequent simulations more correct and deployable. Rinse, wash, and repeat.

Who else can do that? No one.

The rise in Optimus competency will be faster than FSD progress.
Hey - you're not supposed to say smart stuff. Are you ill?
 
Elon is insanely bad at valuing Tesla, even had a back and forth with James on twitter. Besides his "stock price is too high comment", he feels like Tesla's market cap is overly inflated if they can't meet his expectations(smashed like a souffle with a sledgehammer comment). When the stock was headed to 1200, he was dumb founded as to why and thought the Hertz thing shouldn't be material(which it shouldn't be). Deep down Elon actually compares his company to other automakers and he thinks it's marketcap is propped up by FSD/Robotix/AI etc and just never looked into how bad other company's operating margins are or his own forward PE.
That particular comment had quite a bit of context behind it and quoting it without that context makes it lose all meaning.

I do agree with you, but in Musks world, someone is solving vehicle automation and whoever does that takes home all the cards.

Tesla can have margins for days, but if most people are using Cruise taxi or whatever they call it, it won't matter because people have mostly stopped buying cars.
 
This is what I've been expecting in terms of using vehicles as grid storage as well. It isn't attractive to wear down your car battery for 10 or 20 cents a kWh, but a buck or so? Yes, please let me plug in my Cybertruck and collect a few hundred bucks a month over summertime.

Maybe seeing these numbers will have Elon reconsidering V2G. They just need to count those cycles towards battery warranty somehow.

Tesla needs much beefier chargers (inverters specifically) to do this. I'm pretty sure Elon has mentioned this in the past. Doing V2G would both increase cost on the car and decrease the life of both the battery and the charging gear / inverter.

Doable, yes. Free lunch, no.
 
Forward Observing

Interesting take away comments from USAA insurance agent yesterday. As always, I am trying to get a price break. You know military, senior (not just high school grad), and frequent flyer. I was hoping for a discount based on my safe driving record based on Teslas FSD bata competition. Problem was I can no longer obtain a screenshot to back up my claim. Bottom line, no such luck.

However, it was the last few seconds out of the agents mouth that got my sad tales attention ~ it was the following regurgitation. Sort of “Elon Musk, or whatever his name is a genius! Other manufacturers should be required to put all the safety things He has on those Teslas.“

Hard sometimes to hold my head up after a beating like the stock has had, but this was worth a cold Dragons Milk (beer) ~ available in the alcohol section at most Costco Stores.
 
I wouldn’t have thought this was possible last week, but Tesla has a chance of getting the No 1 spot for BEV deliveries in Norway for the full quarter.

Over 600 deliveries the last two days. Tesla was below Skoda on Monday.

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