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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Nope, that company doesn't take home all the cards unless cars fall out of the sky. It's like saying the entire semi-conductor business should be worth zero because Windows and MacOS was built.
Tesla is working on printing cars which is extremely valuable to full autonomy. No matter how good the software is, it's usefulness is EXTREMELY limited if there's not enough cars that can accept such software at a reasonable price.
Imagine if Uber charges 5 dollars a ride, would you give up your car tomorrow? Most people who live in suburbs will not EVEN if it cost them way less because you can't rely on Uber in the suburbs for emergencies. You spend sometimes up to a hour waiting for a car to show up.
FSD alone is not the panacea to a full robotaxis economy. Millions of cars with said software may be.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Elon tweeted “Hertz deal has zero effect on our economics.” I think he’s wrong on this one because the Hertz deal is a demand generator.
100k cars each rented about once per week is 5 million extended test drives per year. Some people renting these already own Teslas but probably the majority don’t and are curious. How many of them will want to buy a Tesla after having the opportunity to spend days driving one? This is just the first tranche of rentals, so it indicates more may be coming in the future from Hertz and competitors. Hertz rentals are almost as important as the upcoming Vegas Loop for getting butts in seats.
Tom Brady advertising Teslas for Hertz on prime time television is also huge. Tom Brady is one of the most recognizable and trusted celebrities in the world as the best quarterback in the history of the NFL—by far the world’s most popular sports league measured by revenue. It helps that he’s handsome and white, although in an ideal world that wouldn’t matter. In the USA, Tesla’s biggest market, this is a premier marketing partnership for which Tesla is paying $0.
Having a major business place a gigantic order for Tesla vehicles also builds public confidence that Tesla is a legitimate company. Many average people still think Tesla is at risk of bankruptcy in the next few years.
Of course, more demand means more pricing power and higher margins.
It may be an unpopular opinion, I think FSD beta already has good value at the current stage.
Just showing some of my friends the FSD beta last night, it wasn't a smooth ride without intervention and they were still very impressed. As a result, one person said he would buy FSD if the price is still $7,000. Another person who was looking to buy a different brand EV is now committed to buying a Tesla.
Just showing some of my friends the FSD beta last night, it wasn't a smooth ride without intervention and they were still very impressed. As a result, one person said he would buy FSD if the price is still $7,000. Another person who was looking to buy a different brand EV is now committed to buying a Tesla.
FSD beta provides a very good value when you are in a completely new city/area. I was using it in Tampa and had zero clue where I was going. FSD beta just took over and I just let it do it's thing. NOA +FSD beta on our way back to central FL completely bypassed a hour worth of traffic by taking an exit unexpectedly and drove around on city streets while the hwy was jammed due to construction. I had zero clue where the car was going and it was pitched dark in these country roads. I just let it do its thing and I ended up by passing 6 miles worth of bumper to bumper traffic as it drove me back onto the hwy with near zero interventions. My wife afterwards was like "wow it did a good job this time, good job Tesla!".
From a strictly investor perspective, FSD is worth the amount of money your car can make on Uber while you are not in the car minus maintenance fees minus repairs from people damaging the car minus taxes you have to pay at the end of the year.
From a driver perspective, it is worth the hassle removed from having to drive long distance in traffic if you don’t like to do so daily for 2 hours.
From a YOLO perspective, it is worth every penny because it is one of the most brillant thing programmed by human mind. Why would you deny yourself from that incredible invention and deny yourself the chance to show off to people who get in your car
Visited my local Service Centre today and all the demo cars were gone. On previous visits they always had demo cars on display. Mostly Y and 3 models. Occasionally good looking used Model S'es for sale. Now just a big empty room.
Edit: This is in Norway, btw
Two months ago I looked at a Model 3 and the salesman promised to mail me with info when/if they got a nice used Model 3 available. But he warned me that they often sold too fast for them being available like this. And I guess he was right since I only got one mail with 2 cars available. And when I rechecked later the same day they were gone.
The end of quarter push is for real!
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Could you ask your friends if the lower price give them (or their collegues) some benefits - as Tesla employes - for buying shares at lower prices? Or stock options? I remember for them price was set at 15% discount of the lower price in a quarter (or something like that).Well I think everyone will know what type of mood I'm in today
I gotta say.......I'm so happy I sold off a majority of LEAPS, took the gains I had on them and just bought shares (with using a bit of margin to maximize the number of shares I could get without putting myself at any real risk). I have full faith in Tesla as a company, especially Zach and Drew. Simply can't trust Elon to not torpedo the stock at any time. Never seen a CEO kneecap their own stock time after time after time as I've seen in the past 8 months (since November). I'm not harping on Elon, he's his own person. He has a right to act how it wants........But I'm sure as hell not going to do any actions that requires the stock to be at a certain price by a certain time frame anymore.
Side note - I know a few of the guys over on the UI/Entertainment team at Tesla. One got laid off, though it was expected. There was some redundancy on that team. But I have heard for the first time some aggravation with Elon from them. Mainly that they feel they do good work only to have the CEO do something that tanks the stock.
And I can't really disagree with them. I'd feel the same way. Especially for those that started in mid-to late 2020. I think some of us here who were invested 8+ years ago can look at our total gains and be very happy even if though the stock was 1200 just 3-4 months ago. But for some of them, they're looking at RSU's/equity that hasn't really appreciated at all over the past 2 years.
Not that I'm really concerned about employee discontent at the moment. But I do think we're nearing a point where Elon's antics could be reaching a breaking point with employees. That latest interview being a classic example. It was unnecessary to say that, Elon knows the wall st media would run that quote non stop and sure enough, in every news feed, it plastered on the front page.
It's quite funny to listen to them though "Can Elon just shut up for one damn month???"
That's a hell of a bargain.
It's not material because Tesla didn't need any demand generation. Would have been more material if Hertz built a gigafactory for Tesla.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Not needed is different than immaterial. He said zero economic impact. Demand increase definitely matters because Tesla raises prices more.
Based on Nasdaq, we should have been up 3-6% today.
Does the Berlin factory at 1,000/week produce more vehicles than Rivian? (Asking for a friend)....
Does the Berlin factory at 1,000/week produce more vehicles than Rivian? (Asking for a friend)....
Is this like S&P inclusion at the closing cross and all? What's the size relationship of the R1000?
OK, next question: Where can we find a list of company "Growth Indexes"? Who produces that list, and can we trust them?
People, isn't GROWTH the race that Tesla is winning today? How many shares we talking about?
Krugerrand
Meow
I’ve made my spouse do their part. A Model 3 sold to the chiropractor last year. Another Model 3 sold to the acupuncturist early this year and now a Model Y ordered for the acupuncturist’s wife. Dentist just emailed to say she’s taking delivery of a Model 3 tomorrow.
Yes, yes. Working on the mountain crew. Lord knows, they can all afford a Tesla now given what they’ve all been charging me for the build. Mostly they’ll all be wanting a Cybertruck, though.
Yes, yes. Working on the mountain crew. Lord knows, they can all afford a Tesla now given what they’ve all been charging me for the build. Mostly they’ll all be wanting a Cybertruck, though.
That does indeed seem to be a big thing and really needed for this summer.I so hate linking to this site, but this is BIG new on the Tesla Energy side of things:
Tesla launches new virtual power plant that pays Powerwall owners to help end brownouts
Tesla launches a new virtual power plant with PG&E in California that pays Powerwalls owners to help stabilize the electric grid.electrek.co
Love the part about "269 Fleet Homes" and 1.42 GW in the App.I so hate linking to this site, but this is BIG new on the Tesla Energy side of things:
Tesla launches new virtual power plant that pays Powerwall owners to help end brownouts
Tesla launches a new virtual power plant with PG&E in California that pays Powerwalls owners to help stabilize the electric grid.
Remember Ant's Life and how they defeated the Grasshoppers? That's some collective power there!
For anyone who hasn't seen it this video on the Tesla VPP is well worth watching:-I so hate linking to this site, but this is BIG new on the Tesla Energy side of things:
Tesla launches new virtual power plant that pays Powerwall owners to help end brownouts
Tesla launches a new virtual power plant with PG&E in California that pays Powerwalls owners to help stabilize the electric grid.
Keep in mind this was recorded over 2 years ago.
1) Tesla will be able to relatively easily "solve" robotic perception with their FSD vision architecture. It will have to be retrained with a focus on a much closer object range / different camera locations etc... but that is relatively straightforward.
2) Our brains have [in motor control / neuroscience speak] an "internal model" of the entire neuromuscular / mechanical state of our entire body. So we implicity know what muscle activations to apply in any twisted configuration our body is in to get the ideal movement. We also have antagonist muscles that balance each other out and provide inherent stability. We have muscles that cross two joints that provide specific benefits. Trip on a bump on the sidewalk? Notice how your opposite leg instictively knows to pop forward to catch your fall. All built in this internal model.
Any robotic AI will need to essentially learn the internal model of its body AND replicate the stability and low latency benefits of muscle. This requires obviously advanced AI (not classical hand coding the equations of motion like was done previously) and tight integration with the hardware (you'll need motor torques to be able to switch directions / modulate torque levels very quickly). Otherwise the robot will be clumsy and fail whenever a rapid change is required.
The core challenge is estimating and reacting to the interaction forces with other objects. The robot may estimate its own body well, but it also has to predict the mechanical properties of the surface it is going to walk / jump on, or grab and pick up. Any error in that estimation can throw the body off dynamically. Expected to step on a hard surface but it was actuallly soft? Can the robot respond rapidly to stabilize itself? I believe Tesla's tight integration and feedback loops can solve this.
The most difficult problem is dealing with very soft materials. I suspect Optimus won't be picking blackberries for a while.
Aside from that, why Tesla? I believe Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon etc... have the AI chops to do the same. But do they have the hardware / manufacturing competency? Amazon could compete. Google / Facebook won't be deploying thousands of robots and iteratively improve mechanical design. Apple, maybe?
But of Apple / Amazon vs Tesla, Tesla will iterate more quickly.
Agreed.
Put it this way. FSD goes from worth $0 when they started, to being worth $Trillions once it passes up humans. It cannot be zero the whole time in between, unless people are 100% sure that it cannot happen. I can safely say it's over 90% complete and 100% sure it will occur, so value is already a couple Trillion. Adn for another 5 years base on their lead, but still owning the growth because of their "vehicles."
You'd have to use it over the years to have this confidence. I bought it twice from the Factory, and I'm about to do it again. It just keeps getting better - I still haven't hit a single curb on FSD, a couple close ones is all. Parking lots still blow my mind.
This happens more often than I thought at first. Same thing happened to us on our way back from LA to Phx. It found a side road for about 2 mi around an accident. It's one thing for your phone to recommend a new route, but when the car just does it? Wow!
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