Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Agreed.

Put it this way. FSD goes from worth $0 when they started, to being worth $Trillions once it passes up humans. It cannot be zero the whole time in between, unless people are 100% sure that it cannot happen. I can safely say it's over 90% complete and 100% sure it will occur, so value is already a couple Trillion. Adn for another 5 years base on their lead, but still owning the growth because of their "vehicles."

You'd have to use it over the years to have this confidence. I bought it twice from the Factory, and I'm about to do it again. It just keeps getting better - I still haven't hit a single curb on FSD, a couple close ones is all. Parking lots still blow my mind.

Not zero anymore. FSD provided me with real utility vs just being a free beta tester. It bypassed a hours worth of traffic while being fully automated. I literally sat in my car in awe doing nothing while watching REAL humans sitting in traffic being beat by my computer + an outsider who doesn't even know the roads.

 

[xhawk101]

Have not seen it discussed here but just wondering to get some input on musks recent comments about Berlin and Austin being "cash furnaces" atm.

I understand the context is difficulty with supply chain, however this really does not seem to make sense to me.

Unable to read the whole article as there is a paywall so there's that....

Elon Musk Mentions Bankruptcy. Everyone Needs to Relax.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk spoke with a Tesla owners club. He talked bankruptcy, advertising, full self-driving, and birthrates. There was a lot to digest.

www.barrons.com

 

[Krugerrand]

1) Tesla will be able to relatively easily "solve" robotic perception with their FSD vision architecture. It will have to be retrained with a focus on a much closer object range / different camera locations etc... but that is relatively straightforward.

2) Our brains have [in motor control / neuroscience speak] an "internal model" of the entire neuromuscular / mechanical state of our entire body. So we implicity know what muscle activations to apply in any twisted configuration our body is in to get the ideal movement. We also have antagonist muscles that balance each other out and provide inherent stability. We have muscles that cross two joints that provide specific benefits. Trip on a bump on the sidewalk? Notice how your opposite leg instictively knows to pop forward to catch your fall. All built in this internal model.

Any robotic AI will need to essentially learn the internal model of its body AND replicate the stability and low latency benefits of muscle. This requires obviously advanced AI (not classical hand coding the equations of motion like was done previously) and tight integration with the hardware (you'll need motor torques to be able to switch directions / modulate torque levels very quickly). Otherwise the robot will be clumsy and fail whenever a rapid change is required.

The core challenge is estimating and reacting to the interaction forces with other objects. The robot may estimate its own body well, but it also has to predict the mechanical properties of the surface it is going to walk / jump on, or grab and pick up. Any error in that estimation can throw the body off dynamically. Expected to step on a hard surface but it was actuallly soft? Can the robot respond rapidly to stabilize itself? I believe Tesla's tight integration and feedback loops can solve this.

The most difficult problem is dealing with very soft materials. I suspect Optimus won't be picking blackberries for a while.

Aside from that, why Tesla? I believe Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon etc... have the AI chops to do the same. But do they have the hardware / manufacturing competency? Amazon could compete. Google / Facebook won't be deploying thousands of robots and iteratively improve mechanical design. Apple, maybe?

But of Apple / Amazon vs Tesla, Tesla will iterate more quickly.

Okay, I’m not sure why you married Zep but maybe get your own account so people don’t confuse you two.

 

[bkp_duke]

Have not seen it discussed here but just wondering to get some input on musks recent comments about Berlin and Austin being "cash furnaces" atm.

I understand the context is difficulty with supply chain, however this really does not seem to make sense to me.

Unable to read the whole article as there is a paywall so there's that....

Elon Musk Mentions Bankruptcy. Everyone Needs to Relax.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk spoke with a Tesla owners club. He talked bankruptcy, advertising, full self-driving, and birthrates. There was a lot to digest.

www.barrons.com

Honestly, it's expected at this point in time. The media has made a mountain out of a molehill on this.

Factories are always money furnaces until they reach peak production. The supply chain problems from the pandemic have made this worse.

What people SHOULD be focusing on was the comment that Musk made IMMEDIATELY following that comment. That it was something that would (paraphrasing) "be resolved in short order". Meaning that both Berlin and Austin are ramping quickly, and will have a LOT more production in just 1-2 months time.

 

[xhawk101]

Honestly, it's expected at this point in time. The media has made a mountain out of a molehill on this.

Factories are always money furnaces until they reach peak production. The supply chain problems from the pandemic have made this worse.

What people SHOULD be focusing on was the comment that Musk made IMMEDIATELY following that comment. That it was something that would (paraphrasing) "be resolved in short order". Meaning that both Berlin and Austin are ramping quickly, and will have a LOT more production in just 1-2 months time.

Thank you for the context. This was totally left out of the mainstream media article, of course, even including Gordon Johnson's quotes

 

[MC3OZ]

Have not seen it discussed here but just wondering to get some input on musks recent comments about Berlin and Austin being "cash furnaces" atm.

Part of the issue is just a normal production ramp of a new factory.

Part is that we were warned in advance Berlin and Austin involved some new technology, and that there may be some teething problems.

IMO part may also be that on site refining of Lithium in the new Cathode plant is part of the 4680 ramp. Previously the Lithium was going to come from Piedmont, and due to delays in getting the mine approved, Tesla had to find other sources.

I do think Elon is odiously happiest when everything is sailing along fine with no issues, we they hit speed bumps, Elon tends to react in a proactive manner. Regardless, Elon, Drew and the team will sort everything out.

Lithium from the on site Cathode plant might be Q1 2023 when that is pumping, we can then judge if there are other issues with the 4680 ramp, by that time I doubt that there will be.

But there is a likely need to use 2170s at Austin in Q3/Q4 2022, and they probably could have used them in Q2 if they had the equipment to make the packs.

It does look like a lot of new equipment is going into Austin, it is likely some of that is sorting out issues with existing lines.

 

[Zero CO2]

Thank you for the context. This was totally left out of the mainstream media article, of course, even including Gordon Johnson's quotes

also the interview was over 3 weeks ago IIRC

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Part of the issue is just a normal production ramp of a new factory.

Part is that we were warned in advance Berlin and Austin involved some new technology, and that there may be some teething problems.

IMO part may also be that on site refining of Lithium in the new Cathode plant is part of the 4680 ramp. Previously the Lithium was going to come from Piedmont, and due to delays in getting the mine approved, Tesla had to find other sources.

I do think Elon is odiously happiest when everything is sailing along fine with no issues, we they hit speed bumps, Elon tends to react in a proactive manner. Regardless, Elon, Drew and the team will sort everything out.

Lithium from the on site Cathode plant might be Q1 2023 when that is pumping, we can then judge if there are other issues with the 4680 ramp, by that time I doubt that there will be.

But there is a likely need to use 2170s at Austin in Q3/Q4 2022, and they probably could have used them in Q2 if they had the equipment to make the packs.

It does look like a lot of new equipment is going into Austin, it is likely some of that is sorting out issues with existing lines.

I agree production ramp at the big new gigafactories will have a large impact on Tesla's revenue and margins. Enormous non-producing factories are expensive.

That said, they were already wildly profitable in Q1 with neither Berlin nor Austin making very many cars.

And (if you believe some sketchy looking reports on the board today), it looks like Austin may be about to begin spitting out regular MYLR cars alongside the weird shorter-range MYAWD's they've been shipping.

 

[Captkerosene]

This statement by Elon hinges upon an Aspie's presumption that everyone should/could be smart enough to realize this state of a new factory ramp is normal.

He's only pointing out something he thought was obvious, for the irony, or, to share his feelings on the experience. (Whew, we are burning billions, what a rush!) He wasn't complaining because it was a problem.

Naturally, the Muggles will jump to the wrong conclusion, based upon their reference point of looking for the worse possible interpretation.

This, also, is normal. We know this, and have seen it time and again as the company grows. Nothing to see here, move along.

I'll go with the Muggles on this one. The ramp is slower than planned. Elon had no intention of "burning Billions." Please someone tell me I'm not the only one who noticed how many "likes" this flawed analysis of the situation got.

 

[MC3OZ]

I agree production ramp at the big new gigafactories will have a large impact on Tesla's revenue and margins. Enormous non-producing factories are expensive.

That said, they were already wildly profitable in Q1 with neither Berlin nor Austin making very many cars.

And (if you believe some sketchy looking reports on the board today), it looks like Austin may be about to begin spitting out regular MYLR cars alongside the weird shorter-range MYAWD's they've been shipping.

The could have solved the production bottlenecks.

Or maybe they now have 2170 packs in production at Austin.

 

[GOVA]

Elon tweeted “Hertz deal has zero effect on our economics.” I think he’s wrong on this one because the Hertz deal is a demand generator.
...

Rented MY from Hertz for 8 days in Orlando. The whole deal is severly limited due to not having phone interface. All they provide is the card so one can forget about turning AC on and off or anything else that phone allows.
Moreover the connectivity seems to be disabled so no live traffic available either.

This is pretty bad for Tesla. Yes, the car drives great as it should but limiting the rest does not project the proper image to whomever wants to check the Tesla out.

Boo Hertz. Hope this will change and I expressed this in my feedback. Let people have and use the phone app for the duration of the rental.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

The could have solved the production bottlenecks.

Or maybe they now have 2170 packs in production at Austin.

Assuming the Austin-MYLR rumors are true, I'd bet on it being a 2170 pack. In fact if Fremont starts using the front mega-casts that'd put MYLR's on similar footing woldwide.

 

[betstarship]

Rented MY from Hertz for 8 days in Orlando. The whole deal is severly limited due to not having phone interface. All they provide is the card so one can forget about turning AC on and off or anything else that phone allows.
Moreover the connectivity seems to be disabled so no live traffic available either.

This is pretty bad for Tesla. Yes, the car drives great as it should but limiting the rest does not project the proper image to whomever wants to check the Tesla out.

Boo Hertz. Hope this will change and I expressed this in my feedback. Let people have and use the phone app for the duration of the rental.

This reminds me of the Uber I took recently in a Model 3. Great experience, but the driver was using a phone and the Tesla screen for navigation. Clearly, Tesla needs a curated/white-listed app store for all of on-screen experiences for drivers not to be distracted by their smartphones with Uber/Lyft/Hertz of the world and their cars.

For example, I asked the guy how often he has to charge and if there's a sync between his charging intervals and the Uber app...nothing. He goes based on an ad-hoc decision if he has enough charge to take a rider or not based on his own decision-making, experience, and intuition. It seems sub-optimal.

Edit: I would think this is the same for food delivery and logistics apps too.

 

[Singuy]

Rented MY from Hertz for 8 days in Orlando. The whole deal is severly limited due to not having phone interface. All they provide is the card so one can forget about turning AC on and off or anything else that phone allows.
Moreover the connectivity seems to be disabled so no live traffic available either.

This is pretty bad for Tesla. Yes, the car drives great as it should but limiting the rest does not project the proper image to whomever wants to check the Tesla out.

Boo Hertz. Hope this will change and I expressed this in my feedback. Let people have and use the phone app for the duration of the rental.

Actually most people just want the simple stuff dealing with a rental. These people will be more worried about charging the car vs being mad that there's a feature not enabled. The point is to try out the drive train, not to be an expert because you are suppose to spend your time enjoying the city, not fiddling around with the car. I barely turn on the radio in a rental as I am paying hard attention to where I am going as nothing is familiar.

 

[Singuy]

I'll go with the Muggles on this one. The ramp is slower than planned. Elon had no intention of "burning Billions." Please someone tell me I'm not the only one who noticed how many "likes" this flawed analysis of the situation got.

Tho true, I think Elon anticipated that there will be new fires to put out during a production ramp. He doesn't seem very concerned as all these problems are solvable in a timely fashion or else he would be saying stuff like spending lots of mental capacity to stop bleeding money vs focused on FSD.

 

[betstarship]

This reminds me of the Uber I took recently in a Model 3. Great experience, but the driver was using a phone and the Tesla screen for navigation. Clearly, Tesla needs a curated/white-listed app store for all of on-screen experiences for drivers not to be distracted by their smartphones with Uber/Lyft/Hertz of the world and their cars.

For example, I asked the guy how often he has to charge and if there's a sync between his charging intervals and the Uber app...nothing. He goes based on an ad-hoc decision if he has enough charge to take a rider or not based on his own decision-making, experience, and intuition. It seems sub-optimal.

Edit: I would think this is the same for food delivery and logistics apps too.

On another note, I'm surprised there hasn't been much chatter here on the right monetization methods and API's needed for a potential App Store on TeslaOS.

 

[Knightshade]

On another note, I'm surprised there hasn't been much chatter here on the right monetization methods and API's needed for a potential App Store on TeslaOS.

TeslaOS is linux

And app store has been discussed at length, many times, going back years.

Plenty of evidence they plan to eventually have one- but plenty of odd seems-to-be-taking-a-long-while stuff too.

Tesla demoed AAA games (like Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk 2077) over 18 months ago on the new infotainment in the S/X refresh.

But those still aren't actually available to owners.

Likewise last I knew the onboard storage in the MCU3 was a relatively paltry 256GB... (for context 2 or 3 of the larger AAA games would take up that entire space)...this led to some speculation they'd eventually support customer-supplied external drives attaching via USB-C... but then they began shipping cars where the USB-C ports didn't even support data (which could well be a supply chain issue-- but one they'd need entirely fixed including back-fitting delivered cars, if they plan to go the external storage route)

 

[nativewolf]

I'll go with the Muggles on this one. The ramp is slower than planned. Elon had no intention of "burning Billions." Please someone tell me I'm not the only one who noticed how many "likes" this flawed analysis of the situation got.

It is so blindingly obvious that the ramp is fubar. They did not keep eye on the battery ball and that was the biggie. EM has had attention every which way when batteries are at the core of the mission and they had not solved batteries. Having a battery line made in China and importing it to retrofit into your brand new state of the art factory is clearly a sign that the ramp is much much slower than needed and...that it wont' get better soon. Period. That's what it means. The fact that Tesla can do the retrofit is testament to the fact that they are very agile.

 

[nativewolf]

Tho true, I think Elon anticipated that there will be new fires to put out during a production ramp. He doesn't seem very concerned as all these problems are solvable in a timely fashion or else he would be saying stuff like spending lots of mental capacity to stop bleeding money vs focused on FSD.

Or he has Aspergers and can't help himself oh...and a rocket company. He's a person..he makes mistakes. It's ok.

 

[Singuy]

It is so blindingly obvious that the ramp is fubar. They did not keep eye on the battery ball and that was the biggie. EM has had attention every which way when batteries are at the core of the mission and they had not solved batteries. Having a battery line made in China and importing it to retrofit into your brand new state of the art factory is clearly a sign that the ramp is much much slower than needed and...that it wont' get better soon. Period. That's what it means. The fact that Tesla can do the retrofit is testament to the fact that they are very agile.

Lots of equipment from the 4680 ramp are also made in China. Like 90% of everything is made in China or has parts that are made in China. I don't know what that has to do with anything.

Also you can't just have 2 production lines from day one because you haven't hired enough people for 2 lines. Texas started out with a 4680s and wants a 2170 line installed but it's delayed due to shutdown, Berlin has a 2170 and needs to install a 4680. It's a pretty good strategy when you have plenty of 2170s laying around and you need a production line like Texas to work out the kinks of the 4680s.