Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

I'm crazy for saying this, but very much do appreciate the insights found on this forum over the years. The last 2.5 years have been magical for me, on a personal level, and much of it has to do with the people that have been and are on this forum.

Kudos to those that care about others and want to help avert climate change in order to progress to a really, really bright long-term future for civilization. It's cool we get to say stuff like that. Have a great weekend!

 

[MadScientist23]

Sure thing! And then in two weeks when the macro’s tank back down to their previous lows, TSLA will be in the 500’s

They effectively walked this stock down nonstop over the past 2 months and are practically salivating at the thought of getting more TSLA at an extreme discount.

Hopefully we either get a big surprise to P/D numbers or the macros stabilize which could prevent a further run on this stock

Really for a HODL investor i'm not sure why this is a bad thing. It allows many more purchases to be done at a discounted rate for those that want them, with no real impact that I can tell to the long term (5-8 yrs out) value. I know it's personally frustrating to me on a day to day basis but realistically i wish i had more cash laying around or the job front was in better shape for me right now to be able to pick up more now.

 

[betstarship]

Really for a HODL investor i'm not sure why this is a bad thing. It allows many more purchases to be done at a discounted rate for those that want them, with no real impact that I can tell to the long term (5-8 yrs out) value. I know it's personally frustrating to me on a day to day basis but realistically i wish i had more cash laying around or the job front was in better shape for me right now to be able to pick up more now.

Something I did, personally, was write out a memo of where I want my life to be in 2024. It's the Amazon approach of building memo's and working backwards on designing an approach that gets you there, then executing on it. Some of that process included Tesla in order to account for wealth generation (as well as some other investments) and...it made me realize how truly special this company is and where it's going in only 1.5 years as long as they execute. The game plan is there, it's just a matter of whether they'll be able to execute and for us to enjoy and help the journey to at least that waypoint as investors and advocates, IMO.

Edit: Out of that memo approach and for Tesla, specifically, I'm always in awe when that company starts doing something new that I didn't see happening in my limited view. It's really fun to track, invest, and help this company along compared to most.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How big is Tesla’s FSD lead? w/ James Douma (Ep. 618) 3 hrs ago by Dave Lee on Investing

Also @DaveT on TMC

Cheers!

 

[Xepa777]

How big is Tesla’s FSD lead? w/ James Douma (Ep. 618) 3 hrs ago by Dave Lee on Investing

Also @DaveT on TMC

Cheers!

I put a lot less credibility into these videos because I know an autonomous driving AI engineer (this guy -

https://www.reddit.com/r/MLQuestions/comments/u30fry/_/i4nvj3s

) who's very smart on Reddit and offered to debate these two publicly but they declined and blocked him. @DaveT you should re-consider this. Echo chambers are bad man.

If Rob can have GORDON JOHNSON on his channel, you two can talk to someone with actual credentials and have an intellectual clash of credibile theories of thought.

 

[Discoducky]

I put a lot less credibility into these videos because I know an autonomous driving AI engineer (this guy -

https://www.reddit.com/r/MLQuestions/comments/u30fry/_/i4nvj3s

) who's very smart on Reddit and offered to debate these two publicly but they declined and blocked him. @DaveT you should re-consider this. Echo chambers are bad man.

If Rob can have GORDON JOHNSON on his channel, you two can talk to someone with actual credentials and have an intellectual clash of credibile theories of thought.

James knows a ton. The blurb you shared is not interesting to me. Can't sugar coat it more than that.

 

[The Accountant]

I put a lot less credibility into these videos because I know an autonomous driving AI engineer (this guy -

https://www.reddit.com/r/MLQuestions/comments/u30fry/_/i4nvj3s

) who's very smart on Reddit and offered to debate these two publicly but they declined and blocked him. @DaveT you should re-consider this. Echo chambers are bad man.

If Rob can have GORDON JOHNSON on his channel, you two can talk to someone with actual credentials and have an intellectual clash of credibile theories of thought.

Yeah. I offered to debate Jerome Powell . . . .the darn guy blocked me. He's got no credibility. /s

 

[Singuy]

I put a lot less credibility into these videos because I know an autonomous driving AI engineer (this guy -

https://www.reddit.com/r/MLQuestions/comments/u30fry/_/i4nvj3s

) who's very smart on Reddit and offered to debate these two publicly but they declined and blocked him. @DaveT you should re-consider this. Echo chambers are bad man.

If Rob can have GORDON JOHNSON on his channel, you two can talk to someone with actual credentials and have an intellectual clash of credibile theories of thought.

Dude that guy is all over the place. His explanations provides nothing new and just straight up call Tesla's FSD a fraud, extremely rudimentary, and some college student can do what they do from a decade ago. His hate is strong, and yet also talks about how he turned down a job offer from Tesla AI team because they pay half of the rest of the industry(interesting how this hater applies to the place he hates so much..even said Tesla gives real AV companies a bad name). First thing he said as of 4h ago is "Tesla's system will not get any better than it is today"...these statements are not even based on reality.

Seems like he is just parroting a lot of same BS other "experts" who doubt Tesla have claimed. Shouldn't this guy who claims to have a PHD and wrote most of the algrothrims spend more time trying to solve FSD vs trying to "educate" random redditors who are positive on tesla's FSD? Nothing new here. I would block him too because he's just a troll.

 

[Xepa777]

Yeah. I offered to debate Jerome Powell . . . .the darn guy blocked me. He's got no credibility. /s

Did you just position the credibility of a YouTuber and someone with no machine learning experience as Jerome Powell in this scenario? And compared that to an actual FAANG deep learning engineer?

You are better than this.

Tesla AI is a very polarizing topic, one Elon has repeated placed emphasis on, and one that Tesla has a history of missing timelines on/ getting mixed responses even among YouTubers. A conversation with people of alternative viewpoints with strong technical credentials can only be a net positive for investors.

 

[Singuy]

Did you just position the credibility of a YouTuber and someone with no machine learning experience as Jerome Powell in this scenario? And compared that to an actual FAANG deep learning engineer?

You are better than this.

Tesla AI is a very polarizing topic, one Elon has repeated placed emphasis on, and one that Tesla has a history of missing timelines on/ getting mixed responses even among YouTubers. A conversation with people of alternative viewpoints with strong technical credentials can only be a net positive for investors.

Yeah except the guy makes many many many assumptions, often in a negative slant. He's not Green who at least tries to take the system apart and look for clues. This guy just make assumptions but need to start with Tesla's FSD is a marketing fraud...then assumes why it is for the rest of his argument.

 

[PeterJA]

This YouTuber says CATL's forthcoming Kirin batteries will be game-changers, and he provides more details about them than CleanTechnica reported last March. There are two versions: LFP and a higher energy chemistry. Mass production is said to begin in early 2023.

I'm not sure how credible he is, since he gushes about CATL's "revolutionary new" cooling technology that seems to be what Tesla has been doing for years. But maybe Tesla won't need their 4680s for long, or won't need as many as originally planned.

 

[The Accountant]

Did you just position the credibility of a YouTuber and someone with no machine learning experience as Jerome Powell in this scenario? And compared that to an actual FAANG deep learning engineer?

You are better than this.

Tesla AI is a very polarizing topic, one Elon has repeated placed emphasis on, and one that Tesla has a history of missing timelines on/ getting mixed responses even among YouTubers. A conversation with people of alternative viewpoints with strong technical credentials can only be a net positive for investors.

What I was trying to imply is that Jerome Powell is not going to debate some random guy (me) from a TMC site.
I don't see why James Douma would want to debate some person from reddit (doesn't help that his reddit handle is "whydoesthisitch" )

Also - some people are not interested in debating. It often comes down to who shouts louder (a la Gordon Johnson).
I have been asked by two well-known youtubers to come onto their channel for an interview. I have declined as I don't think i have more to add than what I have added here on this site. If they had asked me to come on to the site to debate someone, I would certainly decline. I am not interested in debating anyone. Not because I would be afraid my position would lose, but because I don't want to expend the energy to break down the other position. I would want to tell my story. I am open to listening to the counter argument but I don't want to debate it. Listen I will and open to adjusting my thinking.
Although I aced the CPA exam, I was never on the debate team.

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla AI is a very polarizing topic, one Elon has repeated placed emphasis on, and one that Tesla has a history of missing timelines on/ getting mixed responses even among YouTubers. A conversation with people of alternative viewpoints with strong technical credentials can only be a net positive for investors.

Ultimately opinions don't matter results do.

FSD is something that will not be right until it is right, a product which often suffers form 2 steps forward, one step backward, a problem with multiple local maxima.

Those who think Tesla is on the wrong path underestimate how difficult it is, when we compare the progress Tesla is making to the competition, my impression is Tesla has a substantial lead which may be increasing. If data is needed to solve the problem, I don't think any of the competition have the required data.

The question is when the first runner crosses the line, but also when the second runner crosses the line,. My impression is Tesla will be first, and second may cross years later.

The second AI day will give an update on things beyond the robot, some of them will probably related to FSD and Dojo,

Every time Tesla admits that got it wrong, they are on the path to being more right. The only way to find local maxima is to hit them.

 

[Krugerrand]

Did you just position the credibility of a YouTuber and someone with no machine learning experience as Jerome Powell in this scenario? And compared that to an actual FAANG deep learning engineer?

You are better than this.

Tesla AI is a very polarizing topic, one Elon has repeated placed emphasis on, and one that Tesla has a history of missing timelines on/ getting mixed responses even among YouTubers. A conversation with people of alternative viewpoints with strong technical credentials can only be a net positive for investors.

Ok, as a long time and term investor in TSLA, I can tell you I don’t care what some random person on the Internet claims to know or not know about Tesla’s AI.

Nor do I care how many degrees they claim to have. Nor do I actually think there’s anything ‘polarizing’ about Tesla’s AI. It’s either going to work in the end, or not.

My investment isn’t based solely on Tesla’s AI. Indeed, my investment was originally based on some 4-wheeled electric transport vehicles and that was all. Everything after that has been a bloody bonus.

Thanks for your concern, but honestly I’m good.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm not sure how credible he is, since he gushes about CATL's "revolutionary new" cooling technology that seems to be what Tesla has been doing for years. But maybe Tesla won't need their 4680s for long, or won't need as many as originally planned.

Some videos are better than others, mostly he just repeats the manufacturers claims. IMO he is right, CATL don't make false claims.

What is missing the comparison to 4680 is cost, not the cost to make make the batteries, but what Tesla can buy them for.

Tesla can buy batteries form CATL and BYD but there is some manufacturer margin, and lots of car companies are competing for the same batteries.

Apart from cost savings in house manufacture can guarantee the ability to scale volumes fast enough,.

 

[Knightshade]

James knows a ton.

He does.

But he also was on Daves show saying how Tesla was smart to reject LIDAR, but to include radar since it's an important system to include for bad weather a few weeks before Tesla announced they were removing radar.

Then he was on a few weeks later explaining how it was a smart idea to remove radar.

So... yeah.

 

[Singuy]

He does.

But he also was on Daves show saying how Tesla was smart to reject LIDAR, but to include radar since it's an important system to include for bad weather a few weeks before Tesla announced they were removing radar.

Then he was on a few weeks later explaining how it was a smart idea to remove radar.

So... yeah.

Well the context is, if radar and vision are constantly fighting to be right while the car phantom brakes or goes crazy, then it'll be a good idea to remove radar. I mean if radar works without fighting with vision then it'll be stupid to remove it. So what James is saying is that the radar is important...if it worked as intended which was the assumption before Musk chimed in to why radar was removed....

 

[Knightshade]

Well the context is, if radar and vision are constantly fighting to be right while the car phantom brakes or goes crazy, then it'll be a good idea to remove radar. I mean if radar works without fighting with vision then it'll be stupid to remove it. So what James is saying is that the radar is important...if it worked as intended which was the assumption before Musk chimed in to why radar was removed....

In actual context, he said radar was important because it provides info that vision literally can not provide-- specifically things like seeing through fog and other visually obstructing weather, and bouncing under vehicles to see ones ahead.

He made no remarks qualifying that based on how good a job one was doing with the fusion piece.

(and in fairness to radar- we are over 1 year into when it was dropped... and the non-radar version still isn't at parity with the radar one (see again the fact you have a lower max speed and a longer min follow distance on vision than on radar)).


But that aside- if James has so little insight into how well various parts of the system are working that his own statements get contradicted by Elon shortly after he makes them, he probably shouldn't be cited as any sort of authority on how the system is working.

 

[OrthoSurg]

He does.

But he also was on Daves show saying how Tesla was smart to reject LIDAR, but to include radar since it's an important system to include for bad weather a few weeks before Tesla announced they were removing radar.

Then he was on a few weeks later explaining how it was a smart idea to remove radar.

So... yeah.

My autopilot always phantom brake at the same spot on the highway and has been constant at phantom braking at the same place every week for one year now.
I have sent 52 times the « Bug Report »
while holding the wheel scrollers. The day they fix it I buy FSD I promise.

 

[TradingInvest]

Dude that guy is all over the place. His explanations provides nothing new and just straight up call Tesla's FSD a fraud, extremely rudimentary, and some college student can do what they do from a decade ago. His hate is strong, and yet also talks about how he turned down a job offer from Tesla AI team because they pay half of the rest of the industry(interesting how this hater applies to the place he hates so much..even said Tesla gives real AV companies a bad name). First thing he said as of 4h ago is "Tesla's system will not get any better than it is today"...these statements are not even based on reality.

Seems like he is just parroting a lot of same BS other "experts" who doubt Tesla have claimed. Shouldn't this guy who claims to have a PHD and wrote most of the algrothrims spend more time trying to solve FSD vs trying to "educate" random redditors who are positive on tesla's FSD? Nothing new here. I would block him too because he's just a troll.

"...... he turned down a job offer from Tesla AI team because they pay half of the rest of the industry"

Tesla AI pays well. Unless he got a job offer for a data labeler.