Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Medium term plan must be that all Shanghai output never leaves the continent. They want to ramp that factory to 1.5 million / year or maybe more and sell everything as close to on the spot as possible. Need to stoke demand for the future which is probably only 18 months away as Berlin and Texas ramp.

Or it could just be local government incentives of trading in ice for evs and Tesla is just advertising it and news report spinning it as a Tesla only deal.

• "Consumers will also receive rebates of RMB 10,000 ($1,503) per car for any trade-in of gasoline vehicles for new electric vehicles (EVs) for the rest of the year, as stated on the notice of the municipal government’s official WeChat account."

China issues new stimulus measures to boost auto sales · TechNode

The latest government measures could be a sign of recovery in China’s auto sector, which has been hit by the Covid-19 outbreaks.

technode.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

I suspect the video below is to announce the new CATL LFP battery pack that will power Tesla's robotaxi, from their new factory in Shanghai: (btw, "CTP" stands for "Cell-to-Pack")

CTP 3.0 Technology Launch | (4 days ago)

The video also referred to a new "lighthouse" (read: technology demonstrator) factory for manufacturing this advanced bty pack. I suspect that's the factory we see under construction 3 km South of Giga Shanghai in Wu Wa's series of "CATL" videos.

CATL claims volumetric pack use to be slightly higher than even 4680-based packs (70% vs 68%). Add in long-lived LFP bty chemistry and this will be a Million-mile robotaxi: 3 cycles per day, 365 days per year, implies a svc life btwn 5-10 years (5K-10K bty cycles) at 120K miles per year. That's a min life of 600K miles, call it 1M miles over 8 years: Build 'em low-cost, build 'em fast, and stack 'em by the millions, fella's.

Now anybody wanna estimate Robotaxi revenues, cash flow over 8 years, and net present value? Let's say the fleet starts at 2M, and increases by 2M each year for the 1st 8 yrs... from just this 1st factory.

Cheers!

 

[hobbes]

Tesla catching up in Spain+Netherlands+Norway+Sweden (the countries we have live registration data for), still a week to go to get to the top!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541067336710586369

 

[petit_bateau]

I suspect the video below is to announce the new CATL LFP battery pack that that will power Tesla's robotaxi, from their new factory in Shanghai: (btw, "CTP" stands for "Cell-to-Pack")

CTP 3.0 Technology Launch | (4 days ago)

The video also referred to a new "lighthouse" factory for manufacturing this advanced bty pack. I suspect that is the one we see under construction 3 km South of Giga Shanghai in Wu Wa's series of "CATL" videos.

CATL claims volumetric pack use to be slightly higher than even 4680-based packs (70% vs 68%). Add in long-lived LFP bty chemistry and this will be a Million-mile robotaxi: 3 cycles per day, 365 days per year, implies a svc life btwn 5-10 years (5K-10K bty cycles) at 120K miles per year. That's a min life of 600K miles, up to over 1.2M miles. Build 'em low-cost, and by the millions, fella's

Anybody wanna estimate the revenues?

Cheers!

Model 2/Z

 

[Artful Dodger]

Model 2/Z

Hmm, I had the 2/Z coming after robotaxi (per Elon on the Q1 call), and that the BYD "Blade" battery would be more likely. CATL's rumored capacity for the new Lingang (Shanghai) factory is 80 GWh/yr. That's about right for 2M robotaxi's with a 40 KWh pack, so I tend to 'bin' these two projects together. CATL building new pack capacity to provision Tesla the batteries it needs for Robotaxi.

Clearly, much of this rests on FSD succeeding by the time the Robotaxi's are ready to roll. I suppose 2/Z could be a potential user of this pack, but clearly Elon wants to prioritize Robotaxi for 1st production.

 

[henchman24]

Big pushdown on the whole market right at the start of the day. Testing rally strength early.

 

[15Peter20]

Well that went south rather quickly.

 

[Mengy]

Big pushdown on the whole market right at the start of the day. Testing rally strength early.

Yeah the market looked good before the opening but now it's trending down already. Could be just filling the gap though, maybe it will reverse again?

 

[Cattledog]

I'd like to point out we're on page 17420. Proof of simulation.

That's it.

 

[MadScientist23]

Yeah the market looked good before the opening but now it's trending down already. Could be just filling the gap though, maybe it will reverse again?

Nice to see TSLA pushed back after the pull down, we'll see if it will keep the strength but that brings a good feeling.

 

[JRP3]

Saw my first Kia EV6 in the wild today. Looked great and a solid attempt at an EV better than ICE. $42k CAD with gov. incentives compared with $62k CAD for lowest price Tesla Model 3. This South Korean company knows the future and glad they are taking EVs seriously and sexy. More EV choices will only expand the EV pizza pie-ya.

So to date, I have now seen one Kia EV6, one Mercedes EQS, two Audi e-tron, four Ford Mustang Mach-E and five Posrche Taycans total, ever. That compared to seeing over a dozen Teslas in a short 15 minute ride this morning. Teslas are more common here than apple pie, and this is 2400 miles away from Fremont. Come on competition. You all look great. Now let's get out there and show everyone how to play.

https://www.kia.ca/en/vehicles/2022/ev6?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI0aTpzsXL-AIVWRXUAR2BIAu7EAAYAyAAEgKcOfD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Saw one in red a few weeks ago, first non Tesla EV that really caught my eye. Specs seem decent as well. If it had access to the Supercharger network I'd consider it if I didn't already have a Model 3.

 

[JRP3]

Interesting 10 minute video I would like to share:
I read about the Google engineer who was convinced Google created a sentient AI and my first impression was that the engineer was just crazy, oversensitive on trained conversations.
Then I took the time to listen to him. There is really a much greater picture to see here

A different perspective for anyone who may have been convinced of his claims:

 

[henchman24]

Yeah the market looked good before the opening but now it's trending down already. Could be just filling the gap though, maybe it will reverse again?

I think the market is just trying to find footing. There was some easing off of downward pressure from the options chain last week and it broke through a major resistance point. Now generally just figuring out if it wants to get below that point or if it is support now. At a glance and early it looks like support, but way too soon to make that proclamation as fact. Tesla is showing strength against this test, but again early.

 

[ggr]

Please vote:

View attachment 821697

Poll: Should jbcarioca be reinstated?

Longstanding member in good order has been disbarred from this forum. I, for one, feel his / her contributions were generally of an exceptionally high quality and very helpful. What do you think?

teslamotorsclub.com

By invoking my moderator powers, I have been able to confirm that his account was deleted at his own request. The forum operators don't know a reason and tried to talk him around.

Mod: This subject is now closed. --ggr

PS: Some of the previous followups, which I have now caught up with, should probably be deleted too. But rather than be accused of censorship, I'm merging them into the poll thread, and then locking that thread. --ggr

 

[Nocturnal]

FYI, Exxon CEO believes that all cars will be EV by 2040.

Exxon Mobil CEO shares surprisingly bold EV prediction for 2040

The electric vehicle transition is so undeniable today that even Exxon Mobil is starting to admit that EVs are the future.

www.teslarati.com

 

[jerry33]

If there's 25 fires for every 100,000 EVS sold how can the total of fires equal 52?

Floating point errors: Numbers are represented in this format as a whole number times a power of two; rational numbers (such as 0.1) whose denominator is not a power of two cannot be exactly represented.

 

[elasalle]

Right Said Fred (share 1 article per quarter rule )

Tesla Megapacks are about to replace Hawaii’s last remaining coal plant

Tesla Megapacks are on their way to Hawaii in order to create a giant new energy storage system that is...

electrek.co

Once completed, the Kapolei Energy Storage facility (KES) will become one of the largest battery systems in the world with a capacity of 185 megawatts/565 megawatt-hours. It is a project in partnership with Plus Power and Hawaiian Electric – the former decided to use Tesla Megapacks to power the system.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess the MM's are defending $750 for today?

 

[damonbrodie]

Guess the MM's are defending $750 for today?

I'm a bit naïve to this manipulation. What is it specifically? Some large share owner/fund that is selling shares at a specific price to achieve a specific price target that suits their purposes?

 

[Zero CO2]

I own a 2013 non-AP P85+ And Google Navigation does this for me, not NOA/FSD/AP

google nav told you where to go and you executed the directional commands as a driver

FSD Beta did this for me as I monitored my MS while it executed the commands ... I recently had this experience on the Garden State Parkway(NJ) and navigated around an accident ... it was impressive ...i did intervene a few times but I could see single stack executing this flawlessly

(I am very risk averse, so i intervene probably more than i need)