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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I really don't think this is an echo chamber. Negative views of Tesla portrayed by the media are shared here often and then debunked with facts.

Call me a fanboi if you will, but that doesn't change the fact that Tesla is killing it:
- unlimited demand at current production levels;
- best margins and profitability in the industry;
- most efficient spending, including on "extra's" such as AI, FSD, Energy etc;
- no debt;
- nice cash reserves.

I wouldn't want my money anywhere else.

To adress your list of perceived weakness:

  • Very difficult to get a customer service response here in the UK.
Service has room for improvement, but I see no evidence Tesla is not taking the criticisms seriously. They are trying to ramp service and building out the mobile service fleet, which is the most comfortable solution for most customers. TL;DR: improving each quarter and I see no impossible hurdles to overcome the coming quarters/years. You do raise a good point with this, but this has been discussed and Tesla is not ignoring the issue. So little can be said at this point IMO. Service could be a long term killer for the company, IF Tesla were to ignore it. But I don't see evidence they are ignoring it.
  • Surprisingly limited range of colors for each vehicle, esp for the high-end models.
Demand cannot be met at current production levels, so this point is moot. Yes, you would prefer to have any colour you want, but that won't increase Tesla's production ramp or financials. On the contrary, it would be counterproductive to ramp/financials and the mission. So this is a first world problem.
  • Quite sparse, even cheap-feeling interior for the high-end models compared to other brands.
See previous point on demand. Yes, it would be even better if there were more/better interior options but apparently there are plenty of people paying whatever price Tesla asks (ever increasing) for the current models. Moot point at this point in time.
  • Autopilot, outside of the FSD beta, feels overpriced, and way over-promised.
Don't want it, don't buy it. Economics 101.
  • Roadster, Semi and CT seem to be constantly delayed. Certainly perceived by the public as vaporware.
Other OEMs experience no delays on their new models whatsoever. /s

These products will come and they will rock. They will outperform the sports cars, semi's and trucks offered by the 'competition'. Patience.

Also, watch the Elon interview with the Silicon valley owners club. He explains in great detail why Tesla has to prioritize just building the current models from the current factories instead of doing all other things on Tesla's bucket list (software imrovements, new models, etc). Tesla is not out of ideas of stuff to do, but they need the newly built factories to scale first in order not to become unprofitable again. As an investor I'm very grateful Elon has his priorities straight and doesn't lose focus. (And no, Twitter is not a distraction. Tesla is doing great considering the circumstances (Covid, Russia, inflation and the supply chain issues that followed))

Don't get me wrong: I'm just as enthusiastic about the future of Tesla as you. A future in which Tesla offers more colours, interiors, software options and models. But for now those are all distractions and even detrimental to the main mission AND the business. Money talks. It will allow Tesla to add colours, service etc. And on the money/demand front (one ensures the other) Tesla is fortunately in a good and ever improving position.

I guess I belong in the superbull thread, not this one :cool:.
OMG, thank you for bringing it back to what’s important. Strange that some long term investors still don’t get it even after all this time and your exact points being laid out time and time again. Colors, again? Really? 🙄
 
Tesla catching up in Spain+Netherlands+Norway+Sweden (the countries we have live registration data for), still a week to go to get to the top!


24hrs later...

Screenshot 2022-06-28 at 15.10.44.png

😂
 
There are approximately 17 new plaid Model S cars available in the bay area. Is this a sign that Model S production is up this quarter or did customers just cancel last minute?

New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla
We'll know soon enough (about a month) when the Q2 2022 report comes out. This is from Q1

Screenshot 2022-06-28 6.33.36 AM.png
 
On the general thread tone, I'd actually PREFER the thread to be a bit more negative. Not because I'm negative about TSLA, I'm super-bullish, but because I want to be exposed to actual serious critique and spot potential problems or weaknesses, so I can re-check my own valuation of the company.
Nobody benefits from insular groups where different opinions are hounded out. Thats totally true of TSLAQ but also true of Tesla bulls. A smart investor knows the strengths, AND weaknesses of their investment. We should be able to read critiques of the company with an open mind.

I'm not talking FUD nonsense about panel gaps and emerald mines, but talking about stuff where tesla may genuinely be perceived to be at a disadvantage. Hell, it might even be useful if we all crowdsourced the TRUE list of Tesla's weaknesses. No company is infallible.
If I had to list my own perception of weakness for the company:
  • Very difficult to get a customer service response here in the UK.
  • Surprisingly limited range of colors for each vehicle, esp for the high-end models.
  • Quite sparse, even cheap-feeling interior for the high-end models compared to other brands.
  • Autopilot, outside of the FSD beta, feels overpriced, and way over-promised.
  • Roadster, Semi and CT seem to be constantly delayed. Certainly perceived by the public as vaporware.
Like I say, I'm a Tesla bull with non-trivial stock holdings, and very optimistic. But yup, I'd like those areas to improve.
Dont you see every automobile manufacturer has announced multiple new EV models. They will have many many many more Model than Tesla globally, they just wont have the battery production capacity to produce more than 10,000 of each yearly for a another decade. Tesla is doomed by 2032, once they start producing mass AI robot replacing the work force from our collapsing civilization from declining birth rate. Super bullish on Tesla and super bearish on mankind.
 
If I had to list my own perception of weakness for the company:
  • Very difficult to get a customer service response here in the UK.
  • Surprisingly limited range of colors for each vehicle, esp for the high-end models.
  • Quite sparse, even cheap-feeling interior for the high-end models compared to other brands.
  • Autopilot, outside of the FSD beta, feels overpriced, and way over-promised.
  • Roadster, Semi and CT seem to be constantly delayed. Certainly perceived by the public as vaporware.
Like I say, I'm a Tesla bull with non-trivial stock holdings, and very optimistic. But yup, I'd like those areas to improve.

O.K, now let's do the same exercise with legacy auto. Unfortunately, we can lump them all together without taking too many liberties:

1) Crappy, ill-handling, unsafe, over-priced vehicles that have more buttons, knobs and switches than a nuclear submarine.
2) Greedy inefficient dealerships who recommend completely unnecessary work, upgrades and warranties at ridiculous prices for what you actually get.

But you are complaining that your favorite car doesn't come in enough colors and the service department doesn't view you as a lucrative source of additional profit? 🤪
 
Given the traditional meaning of "hack"[1], it's bit misleading to call it that when it's an entirely separate computer piped in to the exiting display...


{1] I still prefer the original MIT definition, which this more fits
 
On the general thread tone, I'd actually PREFER the thread to be a bit more negative. Not because I'm negative about TSLA, I'm super-bullish, but because I want to be exposed to actual serious critique and spot potential problems or weaknesses, so I can re-check my own valuation of the company.
Nobody benefits from insular groups where different opinions are hounded out. Thats totally true of TSLAQ but also true of Tesla bulls. A smart investor knows the strengths, AND weaknesses of their investment. We should be able to read critiques of the company with an open mind.

I'm not talking FUD nonsense about panel gaps and emerald mines, but talking about stuff where tesla may genuinely be perceived to be at a disadvantage. Hell, it might even be useful if we all crowdsourced the TRUE list of Tesla's weaknesses. No company is infallible.
If I had to list my own perception of weakness for the company:
  • Very difficult to get a customer service response here in the UK.
  • Surprisingly limited range of colors for each vehicle, esp for the high-end models.
  • Quite sparse, even cheap-feeling interior for the high-end models compared to other brands.
  • Autopilot, outside of the FSD beta, feels overpriced, and way over-promised.
  • Roadster, Semi and CT seem to be constantly delayed. Certainly perceived by the public as vaporware.
Like I say, I'm a Tesla bull with non-trivial stock holdings, and very optimistic. But yup, I'd like those areas to improve.
The “sparse” interior is to me one if the greatest luxuries there is. We rented a Mercedes in London and it’s interior was busy and it had plastic bits intruding into our space. It looked like a 90’s stereo threw up all over the dashboard. The Tesla has a relaxing clean interior that says future to a lot more than some air vents that try to look like jet parts.
 
TL;DR-Yet another FUD article with a clickbait title and super biased content (I don't link to FUD, but just provide the title if you want to go read it yourself). I'm not amazed that the FUD keeps coming, but I am amazed that it is so thinly disguised marketing these days.

"The hottest electric cars in the US market aren’t coming from Tesla factories."

But this time it is more about the author of the article, Kyle Stock (this is a link to Kyle's past work), rather than the publisher as this article comes through "Hyperdrive". And this was his previous article titled "When EVs Die in the Wild (And Trust Us They Will)"

Here are some gems...

"Earlier this year, the South Korean carmakers rolled out two new battery-powered cars — the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and its sibling, the Kia EV6 — which promptly tore up the sales charts, passing the Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Bolt and every other electric vehicle on the market not made by Tesla."

Yeah, he contradicts himself in the first paragraph. Then, provides the cold, hard truth with sales data to further prove that his title isn't clickbait.

Screenshot 2022-06-28 7.15.27 AM.png

Tesla is mysteriously left out and not mentioned at all in the chart.

But, he goes on to say this gem...

"Tesla still sells far more cars, but it took the company a decade to deliver as many electric vehicles as Hyundai and Kia have managed in a few short months."

He is apparently now comparing the totality of Kia worldwide sales (ICE, BEV, Hybrid, Hamster powered...etc) to Tesla.

Then the article turns into shameless Kia advertising...and then ends with another gem...

"Kosowski said the new Hyundai products are capitalizing, in part, on “Tesla fatigue,” as the first-mover sedans and SUVs become ubiquitous even beyond coastal states."
 
The world has changed a lot.

We really need to appreciate and admire that Elon gives interviews not to TV Networks from the last ice age but to regular youtubers and alike.

This is quite a shift from stiff paid talking heads to regular youtube folks.

Bad service in the UK? Really? No offense, but was it not the I-Pace the real Tes.la kill.er??? How is their service?

This is what matters. Elon reaching out to the masses that matter without touching corrupt TV networks and paying a dime.
 
TL;DR-Yet another FUD article with a clickbait title and super biased content (I don't link to FUD, but just provide the title if you want to go read it yourself). I'm not amazed that the FUD keeps coming, but I am amazed that it is so thinly disguised marketing these days.

"The hottest electric cars in the US market aren’t coming from Tesla factories."

But this time it is more about the author of the article, Kyle Stock (this is a link to Kyle's past work), rather than the publisher as this article comes through "Hyperdrive". And this was his previous article titled "When EVs Die in the Wild (And Trust Us They Will)"

Here are some gems...

"Earlier this year, the South Korean carmakers rolled out two new battery-powered cars — the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and its sibling, the Kia EV6 — which promptly tore up the sales charts, passing the Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Bolt and every other electric vehicle on the market not made by Tesla."

Yeah, he contradicts himself in the first paragraph. Then, provides the cold, hard truth with sales data to further prove that his title isn't clickbait.

View attachment 822137
Tesla is mysteriously left out and not mentioned at all in the chart.

But, he goes on to say this gem...

"Tesla still sells far more cars, but it took the company a decade to deliver as many electric vehicles as Hyundai and Kia have managed in a few short months."

He is apparently now comparing the totality of Kia worldwide sales (ICE, BEV, Hybrid, Hamster powered...etc) to Tesla.

Then the article turns into shameless Kia advertising...and then ends with another gem...

"Kosowski said the new Hyundai products are capitalizing, in part, on “Tesla fatigue,” as the first-mover sedans and SUVs become ubiquitous even beyond coastal states."

Tesla’s revenue is already higher than Kia’s now. Kia total revenue for Q1 was ₩18.4 trillion, which is a little over $15 billion. Tesla was $18+ billion in Q1. Kia’s profit in Q1 was about $800m vs $3b+ for Tesla.
 
...
Wait... people know each other here in real life? I can bring serious music and supplements to the party, just sayin'.
Yes they do, probably for the most part people who met each other at various events. TMC had such events annually back BC. Many of us met each other during those events. Many more recently have met each other at factory openings or regional/local events. My belief is that many of the active TMC members are also attendees/participants in such events.

There are also people who have referred their Teslaphile colleagues to join here.

Music works, depending on the audience. Some I know have wildly different music appreciation than do I. FWIW, the Tidal commentary, among others, seems to draw music enthusiasts.

In my opinion we really need more open communication with less political rancor. Actually knowing each other over shared interests helps built tolerance for otherwise divergent views. That is a GOOD thing.
Reduction of belligerence and increase of information exchange improves us all. There is only positive influence by actually knowing each other.

Clearly these are my personal views, not necessarily shared by others.
 
We'll know soon enough (about a month) when the Q2 2022 report comes out. This is from Q1

There's anotherQ2 tailwind that nobody talks about: The return of Enhanced Autopilot (EAP).

Many of you have likely forgotten (or were only dimly aware) that Tesla did not convert Model 3 production at Fremont over to the FSD computer until April 12, 2019. That means there were roughly 9,000 Models 3 produced that can not use the current FSD beta build w/o a hdw upgrade. Tesla began leasing Model 3 vehicles in Q2 2019, and significantly DID NOT offer a lease 'buy-out' option (meaning that leased vehicles must be returned to Tesla at the end of their lease).

Now, for those Model 3 vehicles (1) built before the production switch to FSD computer, and (2) delivered to customers under a lease agreement, Tesla can only resell these with FSD if they upgrade them to the FSD computer. But this is where the tailwind comes in: if Tesla sells them with EAP, then that software will run on the pre-FSD computer. It also gives Tesla the flexibility to sell as many FSD packages as the market will bear (remember, this Bear includes the half of the world outside the USA), or to sell EAP preferentially to those customers who wish to take quick deliver of a 3-yr old lease return Model 3.

Now the above is just for Model 3 vehicles built in 2019 Q2. However, the EAP upgrade sales offer applies to all Models 3 built before April 12, 2019 (production began in July 2017). Any of those car owners could take advantage of the EAP pricing vs. FSD, and get the highly useful 'Navigate on Autopilot' functionality in there older Model 3, along with a few more goodies like autolane change, summon, etc.

It's all free money to Tesla via a software OTA upgrade to the existing fleet, and at near 100% margin as a result. I encourage you to upgrade if you haven't yet! ;)

Cheers!
 
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