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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I have a quick question. What were your peer's thoughts on Tesla AI at Google?
Good question, there was one person, a peer of mine, who knew Andrej and thought highly of him, but thought Tesla's approach to autonomy was flawed due to their sensor suite and rollout of beta software (he thought it was 'too beta' to release). Realize we both had insights into other tech (all under NDA) so it was always an interesting conversation.

Just about every engineer, however, was very interested in Tesla's approach. Back then I believe they were using variations/forks of Inception v3 (made public by Green I think?).
 
It's my opinion that each quarter several people start hyping the numbers and claiming Elon is sandbagging. Then those people are disappointed when the numbers are inline with Tesla's guidance.

I hope you're right, but I'm setting my expectations for Q2 low.
Fair enough.

Yet, May 2019, which is only 3 years ago, we have gone from $59 to $685 or so, hitting $1,200+ on the way.

This fake downturn will pass and who is gonna go to the moon - again? Well, we know who but not just because but because of looking at the facts of greatest company in my lifetime.
 
Ok, sorry, calling it, no TA, just a 10+ year TSLA investor with observation bias and a brain that perceives patterns reasonably well even without AI support.

Whatever the low is among 6/30, 7/1 and 7/5, we never see again. Up from there.

Shoot me, sorry, I can and have been wrong. But I think Elon ran interference for us this month. I want and need this to go up even though I am a Teslanaire. I have a mountainside to develop! Also long SpaceX in private equity.

Ghost of TrendTrader, arise!!!

CD
 
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Troy posted his final estimate for the quarter. What I found interesting from his post is his VIN data is showing Freemont producing mostly M3 LR and Performance. Only 5% of the M3 production was SR+. That’s going to be great for margins. MY split between trims remained about the same compared to last quarter.

Last week, I read an unverified post on FB that Tesla has not made SR+ in weeks. The poster claimed a Tesla employee in Vancouver told him.

My friend ordered an SR+ last November. Original EOD was April. It kept pushing back and now it's September. So it's possible the margin for Q2 will make up for the production shortfall.
 
ICE cars are currently superior in two other metrics that are even more important than range.

1. Gas station/pump ubiquity. (PUBLIC charging availability).
2. Miles gained per minute (a 25 mpg 3 Series can add 250 miles per minute versus about 15 miles per minute for a Model 3).

In fact I would argue that if we reached equality on those (a Supercharger station everywhere there is a gas station with stalls that could add 250 miles range in 1 minute), it would be absolute game over, whether or not range was increased.

I know you have to add private charging (home/work) and cheaper costs as EV advantages, and those may partially or entirely offset gas public infrastructure advantages, but that does not change the fact that ICE cars have the unbelievably widely available, very high speed refilling capability advantage at this point in time.

Note again. I’m not saying gas refueling is overall superior to EV recharging. Merely that it does have SOME advantages.

I don’t agree that this is an advantage. What you’re capturing here is the relative convenience of ICE refueling vs EV charging. From that point of view, my Model S is much more convenient than an ICE car because it charges up completely as I sleep. The only time I have to charge on the road is during long trips where superchargers are a welcome 20 minute break.

Many people seem to think we need thousands of charging stations like gas stations but that’s not the best solution.
The most convenient outcome for drivers of the future will be charging points all over the place. Home, work, mall, grocery store, parking lots, light poles. It doesn’t matter how fast or slow the charging is if you’re off doing something else while it’s charging.

Get out, plug in, and forget about it. No special trips to charge or fill up.
 
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NO responses to post #…..84.

Now THIS is what I call an on the ball moderator!

By the way, here's a tip when replying to high volume threads like this one. When clicking Reply, create a new tab when doing so. Then continue reading the thread to get caught up to the latest post. Most often, you'll find that you don't need to reply because someone else already said what you were going to say. AND in situations like this, you'll find out if a reply will get you a time out!
 
NO responses to post #…..84.
I love it when Pandora's box is slammed shut :cool: It's like the sound of a Porsche 928 door closing. Very solid thud!

As opposed to one of my fav SNL parody commercials...because every member of your forum deserves the best!

 
When I get my new model Y it will outperform the model S I sell in every metric.
I drove my Mom's December 2021 Model Y when it was brand new and I thought the handling of my December 2016 Model S was far superior, especially while cornering fast. Maybe there is something wrong with it?

" .. it will outperform the model S I sell in every metric..." except comfort - the Y is more like the Mercedes of old, with a firm /stiff suspension. BUT there's a fix for that via Tesla Model Y Luxury Coilover Suspension Kit by Unplugged Performance
Both R Simmons and Tesla Bjorn have reported that the Berlin Model Ys have great new shocks.
It kind of felt like it needed some new shocks.

Sorry, what thread is this?
 



It's not just CANbus data, they're collecting visual data about road markings, traffic signs, and are also sending CANbus data. How they take visual data from the cameras and convert it into 10kb per kilometer, I have no idea.

In terms of expanding the OEDR and recognizing more objects and especially unusual objects, which is what Tesla's AI training data is doing, Mobileye has been collecting visual data for over 25 years.






Discoducky is Googling stuff just like me, they are not an expert in autonomous vehicles and very few people in the world are right now.
Mobileye is not collecting video clips from customer cars. Video object recognition in customer cars is being used solely to make maps.

They have employees driving test vehicles for collecting video clips for AI training. Tesla has therefore about 1000x more access to training data.
 
Every detailed model of Tesla's future growth is essentially useless, IMO, for two reasons:

1) Models that omit FSD, robotaxis and Optimus are wrong by orders of magnitude, because those products are coming, sooner or later. Elon is throwing the full power of his global braintrust into making them happen, and that power is formidable.

2) Models that include FSD, robotaxis and Optimus are likely wrong by orders of magnitude, because nobody knows how fast or how much those products will transform every economy on Earth. Modeling based on Uber or non-robot labor is likely as accurate as modeling the auto industry based on horses.

The only thing we can know for sure is Tesla's growth is nowhere near the inflection point of an S-curve. It is just getting started. The world has never seen a company like this, so nobody can foresee what it will do.
 
The stream is usually audio/presentation only, not live video. They did have cars on display at the Computer Museum a few times, but I gather this time it's at Giga Texas.

"Audio-only" streams are for Tesla Quarterly Conference Calls. AGMs have been live-streamed on Youtube w. video since at lease 2018 (Q&A). There's already a Youtube link published by Tesla to the 2022 AGM:

Tesla, Inc. 2022 Annual Meeting of Stockholders Livestream | Aug 4, 2022 @ 3:30 CT

 
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Last week, I read an unverified post on FB that Tesla has not made SR+ in weeks. The poster claimed a Tesla employee in Vancouver told him.

My friend ordered an SR+ last November. Original EOD was April. It kept pushing back and now it's September. So it's possible the margin for Q2 will make up for the production shortfall.
So this is odd. The SR+ uses LFP cells while the LR and Performance use 2170s. They would have to be stockpiling LFP cells or perhaps they had a shortage.

At some point this is going to have to swing the other way. I wonder if Tesla is favoring 2170 base cars for a bit to boost margins and will have a surge of LFP shipments in early Q3 when they are less worried about hitting numbers.
 
Every detailed model of Tesla's future growth is essentially useless, IMO, for two reasons:

1) Models that omit FSD, robotaxis and Optimus are wrong by orders of magnitude, because those products are coming, sooner or later. Elon is throwing the full power of his global braintrust into making them happen, and that power is formidable.

2) Models that include FSD, robotaxis and Optimus are likely wrong by orders of magnitude, because nobody knows how fast or how much those products will transform every economy on Earth. Modeling based on Uber or non-robot labor is likely as accurate as modeling the auto industry based on horses.

The only thing we can know for sure is Tesla's growth is nowhere near the inflection point of an S-curve. It is just getting started. The world has never seen a company like this, so nobody can foresee what it will do.
Not to mention you didn't even use the word Energy.